Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[MT Treasurer]

It is true that popular governors rarely lose, but it’s not impossible that this might be a KS-2022 situation where the state swings 3% or so to the right due to a far less damaged/comically inept Republican opponent. In KS, that wasn’t enough for a GOP win; in KY, it would be.

JBE also did far worse in his reelection bid despite his popularity, going from winning by double digits to winning by 3% — and that was against a similarly "partisan" opponent. Needless to say, such a shift (not that I expect one of this magnitude) would sink Beshear.

So yes, while incumbent governors rarely lose, incumbent Democratic governors in red states have had some very close calls recently — all of them (Bullock, Kelly, JBE) lucked out, but that doesn’t guarantee Beshear will.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It is true that popular governors rarely lose, but it’s not impossible that this might be a KS-2022 situation where the state swings 3% or so to the right due to a far less damaged/comically inept Republican opponent. In KS, that wasn’t enough for a GOP win; in KY, it would be.

JBE also did far worse in his reelection bid despite his popularity, going from winning by double digits to winning by 3% — and that was against a similarly "partisan" opponent. Needless to say, such a shift (not that I expect one of this magnitude) would sink Beshear.

So yes, while incumbent governors rarely lose, incumbent Democratic governors in red states have had some very close calls recently — all of them (Bullock, Kelly, JBE) lucked out, but that doesn’t guarantee Beshear will.

Yeah the race is far from a done deal. Still, Beshear is very slightly favored at the moment, which might change.

[Oryxslayer]

I would say this is around 50-50 for either side. Beshear does have incumbency going for him, and it is true that incumbents rarely lose if they are somewhat popular. The issue with this take though, is it ignores many incumbents do worse in re-election even if they still win.

A big part of the reason why I think Beshear is strongly favoured to win is that incumbent governors very rarely lose re-election, and popular incumbent governors basically never lose re-election. Consider:

Incumbent governor losses in the last 10 years:
Nevada 2022: Lombardo beat Sisolak
Kentucky 2019: Beshear beat Bevin
Illinois 2018: Pritzker beat Rauner
Wisconsin 2018: Evers beat Walker
North Carolina 2016: Cooper beat McCrory
Alaska 2014: Walker beat Parnell
Illinois 2014: Rauner beat Quinn
Pennsylvania 2014: Wolf beat Corbett

All of the very small number of defeated incumbents (only eight in 10 years!) were either massively unpopular (Bevin, Rauner, Quinn, and Corbett), hugely divisive (Walker and McCrory), or, at best, enjoyed decisively lukewarm approvals (Sisolak and Parnell). None of these currently apply to Beshear, of course, who is one of the ten most popular governors in the country. Perhaps also worth noting is that only two of the above eight defeated incumbents were Democrats. Furthermore, the winning challengers in the list above were basically all particularly strong and/or moderate candidates, which is certainly not true of Cameron; he, as has been noted in this thread, is running an uninspired generic right-wing campaign which would probably allow him to autopilot his way to victory in, say, an open Senate race, but seems very unlikely to cut it against a popular incumbent governor.

All the red states you see on that map are incumbents who ran in 2022 and did worse than 2018. Yes, all of them except Sisolak won re-election but they key is they all did worse than their first election in 2018. (For NH and VT I used 2020 to compare). We can also talk about LA 2019 and NJ 2021. So while incumbent governors losing re-election is quite rare, them doing worse than their initial election certainly is not.

So what is my point? Beshear BARELY won in 2019, so basically doing worse is pretty much a loss for all intents and purposes. He didn't win by enough of a margin to afford losing any votes, so while the red states on this map had their incumbents still win, if a shift comparable to what happened in any of those states (except maybe Alaska) occurs in Kentucky it points to a Beshear loss.

I think the point you are trying to make with the map here is that it's mostly Dems who lost votes and the GOP who gained, but honestly thats to be expected when comparing to 2018. Especially if the challenging party just saw the fundamentals and didn't bother. 

The real thing I think the map shows is that approval really matters. Most of those that improved, especially the Democratic ones, can be found near the top of MC's governor polls. Which would be a point in favor of one of the most popular governors in the country, who is far ahead of his compatriots in Louisiana and Kansas, and more akin to Phil Scott and Sununu.

[Alben Barkley]

It is true that popular governors rarely lose, but it’s not impossible that this might be a KS-2022 situation where the state swings 3% or so to the right due to a far less damaged/comically inept Republican opponent. In KS, that wasn’t enough for a GOP win; in KY, it would be.

JBE also did far worse in his reelection bid despite his popularity, going from winning by double digits to winning by 3% — and that was against a similarly "partisan" opponent. Needless to say, such a shift (not that I expect one of this magnitude) would sink Beshear.

So yes, while incumbent governors rarely lose, incumbent Democratic governors in red states have had some very close calls recently — all of them (Bullock, Kelly, JBE) lucked out, but that doesn’t guarantee Beshear will.

"There you go again!"

Honestly, anyone with your track record predicting THIS particular race who also was capable of even a modicum of shame would just stay out of it.

That being said, and this may shock you, but you aren't totally wrong. It's possible that even a slight Republican swing in the state would flip it. On the other hand, we're talking about a state that just rejected an attempt to outright ban abortion -- albeit by a much closer margin than Kansas did, granted -- and thus may be affected by the post-Dobbs backlash to the GOP. Furthermore, Beshear is now the incumbent governor and routinely scores very high in approval ratings. This is why he's not DOA by any means. If the state was NOT "better off than it was four years ago," I would say he IS DOA as a matter of fact. But by most measures (including the most important one of how people FEEL about the state of things), it IS better off! People generally like Andy around here, and most folks around here don't want to mess with the status quo for no reason. Kentucky truly is a "conservative" state in that regard, which ironically might help the Democrat in this case.

Also there is the frankly unavoidable fact that Daniel Cameron is a black man. Sure, he could win an AG race and a Republican primary under far less high profile circumstances. But is Kentucky really ready to elect a black man to lead our entire state? I don't know about that. I think it's underrated how that could affect turnout in certain parts of the state, to be frank, and in a close election that could make all the difference.

Basically this race is the opposite of 2019 in that we have a POPULAR governor of the UNPOPULAR party in the state! The two factors will, again, likely more or less cancel out and lead to a very close race. I think turnout and swings will actually favor Beshear however; I think he will dominate even more in Lexington and the Bluegrass region and hold up well in Northern KY and Louisville, more than making up for any ground he loses in Eastern KY coal country. But unlike last time, when my gut was just absolutely certain he would win and Bevin would lose, I wouldn't be too surprised to see Cameron winning. There's still a lot of uncertainty here and a lot is going to depend on how things unfold over the next couple months.

[Alben Barkley]

Also, fun fact, I was just recently speaking to my grandmother in her nineties about the race, and her only comment was "We need the blacks to turn out in Louisville and Lexington." I laughed and laughed because, my god, she was right! I guess I was under the impression that she still thought Kentucky was the way it was in the 40s and white coal miners were the ones electing Democrats. But no, she is all too aware of the voting coalitions of today and remains a Democrat regardless!

[MT Treasurer]

"There you go again!"

When I saw you post that, I was reminded of what Oscar Wilde used to say, "Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery that mediocrity can pay to greatness." And until now, I wasn’t quite so sure what he meant by mediocrity.

Honestly, anyone with your track record predicting THIS particular race who also was capable of even a modicum of shame would just stay out of it.

You talk about a modicum of shame, but anybody with a modicum of brain will recall that I was of the firm belief that the 2019 race was a Toss-up. I did predict a narrow Bevin win in the end, which wasn’t any worse than your prediction of a Beshear landslide, but I had it rated as a Toss-up and very much rejected the overconfidence about an easy Bevin win on this forum, even when it meant challenging absolute forum giants such as IceSpear.

That being said, and this may shock you, but you aren't totally wrong.

Oh, it doesn’t shock me — it’s something, and this may shock you, I hear a lot more often than you.... you might think, I should add.

[EastwoodS]

Really curious to see if Beshear can crack 70% in Jefferson County. In 2019 he got 67% but I think he'll need higher out of there to win this time around.

A bit more of a stretch but also Fayette County. My guess is he gets around 69%, up from 65% last time around. Like Jefferson, he'll likely need to improve on his 2019 performance here if he wants to win.

I think he looses most if not all of that collection of blue counties in eastern KY he won back in 2019, but still massively outruns Biden in these communities.



Honestly crazy how this County map might be enough for a Beshear victory. Light red Counties flipped from 2019.

I don’t think he’ll get 70% in Louisville or Lex Bc 2019 was based on strong Anti Bevin turnout that Cameron doesn’t carry. But Beshear will probably do better in Republican counties, Lex suburbs and the Eastern parts of the state, lol

[ProgressiveModerate]

Really curious to see if Beshear can crack 70% in Jefferson County. In 2019 he got 67% but I think he'll need higher out of there to win this time around.

A bit more of a stretch but also Fayette County. My guess is he gets around 69%, up from 65% last time around. Like Jefferson, he'll likely need to improve on his 2019 performance here if he wants to win.

I think he looses most if not all of that collection of blue counties in eastern KY he won back in 2019, but still massively outruns Biden in these communities.



Honestly crazy how this County map might be enough for a Beshear victory. Light red Counties flipped from 2019.

I don’t think he’ll get 70% in Louisville or Lex Bc 2019 was based on strong Anti Bevin turnout that Cameron doesn’t carry. But Beshear will probably do better in Republican counties, Lex suburbs and the Eastern parts of the state, lol

That's interesting because reguardless of if Beshear wins or loses, I expect smtg simillar to KS-Gov where the Dem has a massive overperformance statewide but re-alignment catches up. In 2022, Kelly lost a significant chunk of her rural support, but made gains in Johnson allowing her to just eek out another win.

I would expect Beshear to still massively outrun Biden in most KY rurals, but to underperform his 2019 performance.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

That's interesting because reguardless of if Beshear wins or loses, I expect smtg simillar to KS-Gov where the Dem has a massive overperformance statewide but re-alignment catches up. In 2022, Kelly lost a significant chunk of her rural support, but made gains in Johnson allowing her to just eek out another win.

That's the perfect summation of the Democrats' problems these days. They pick up rich areas like Johnson County, Kansas, but lose people of normal means in rural areas.

Democrats in 2023 = Republicans in 1991

[ProgressiveModerate]

That's interesting because reguardless of if Beshear wins or loses, I expect smtg simillar to KS-Gov where the Dem has a massive overperformance statewide but re-alignment catches up. In 2022, Kelly lost a significant chunk of her rural support, but made gains in Johnson allowing her to just eek out another win.

That's the perfect summation of the Democrats' problems these days. They pick up rich areas like Johnson County, Kansas, but lose people of normal means in rural areas.

Democrats in 2023 = Republicans in 1991

While I do agree your average resident in Johnson County is better off economically than your average rural Kansas resident, I would not call the voters Dems have been gaining in Johnson County wealthy, moreso professional or upper-middle-class.

The median income in Johnson County is roughly 92k/year. That's def enough to live a decent quality of life, but not enough to be removed from the economic concerns most Americans face and doesn't give you true financial freedom.

Also consider that generally the "educated elite" types Democrats have been gaining with tend to live in communities that are just more expensive to live in, have demanding jobs, and had to invest a lot of time and money into their education. Once you adjust for those factors, I think the economic delta between the rural KS and KY voters Dems have been losing and suburban voters Dems have been gaining is a lot smaller than topline income stats would suggest.

There is a lot of evidence to suggest the truly rich (like 500k/year+) still lean overwhelmingly R, and didn't swing much to the left in 2020.

Democrats may be becoming the party of the upper middle or professional class, but not the rich.

[LabourJersey]

That's interesting because reguardless of if Beshear wins or loses, I expect smtg simillar to KS-Gov where the Dem has a massive overperformance statewide but re-alignment catches up. In 2022, Kelly lost a significant chunk of her rural support, but made gains in Johnson allowing her to just eek out another win.

That's the perfect summation of the Democrats' problems these days. They pick up rich areas like Johnson County, Kansas, but lose people of normal means in rural areas.

Democrats in 2023 = Republicans in 1991

While I do agree your average resident in Johnson County is better off economically than your average rural Kansas resident, I would not call the voters Dems have been gaining in Johnson County wealthy, moreso professional or upper-middle-class.

The median income in Johnson County is roughly 92k/year. That's def enough to live a decent quality of life, but not enough to be removed from the economic concerns most Americans face and doesn't give you true financial freedom.

Also consider that generally the "educated elite" types Democrats have been gaining with tend to live in communities that are just more expensive to live in, have demanding jobs, and had to invest a lot of time and money into their education. Once you adjust for those factors, I think the economic delta between the rural KS and KY voters Dems have been losing and suburban voters Dems have been gaining is a lot smaller than topline income stats would suggest.

There is a lot of evidence to suggest the truly rich (like 500k/year+) still lean overwhelmingly R, and didn't swing much to the left in 2020.

Democrats may be becoming the party of the upper middle or professional class, but not the rich.

I understand the sentiment here (and your point about cost of living is valid) but this feels like a stretch. And that's coming from someone who has really only lived in affluent areas my whole life (western Union County, NJ and NOVA).

A Household income of $92,000 is in the 62nd percentile -- so a family making that much is basically in the most affluent third of the nation. That's not rich (at least not in America) but it's certainly affluent, especially compared to non-US parts of the West.

There's certainly a distinction between the richer vs the upper middle class, but this feels like splitting hairs a little bit.

[President Johnson]

A big part of the reason why I think Beshear is strongly favoured to win is that incumbent governors very rarely lose re-election, and popular incumbent governors basically never lose re-election. Consider:

Incumbent governor losses in the last 10 years:
Nevada 2022: Lombardo beat Sisolak
Kentucky 2019: Beshear beat Bevin
Illinois 2018: Pritzker beat Rauner
Wisconsin 2018: Evers beat Walker
North Carolina 2016: Cooper beat McCrory
Alaska 2014: Walker beat Parnell
Illinois 2014: Rauner beat Quinn
Pennsylvania 2014: Wolf beat Corbett

All of the very small number of defeated incumbents (only eight in 10 years!) were either massively unpopular (Bevin, Rauner, Quinn, and Corbett), hugely divisive (Walker and McCrory), or, at best, enjoyed decisively lukewarm approvals (Sisolak and Parnell). None of these currently apply to Beshear, of course, who is one of the ten most popular governors in the country. Perhaps also worth noting is that only two of the above eight defeated incumbents were Democrats. Furthermore, the winning challengers in the list above were basically all particularly strong and/or moderate candidates, which is certainly not true of Cameron; he, as has been noted in this thread, is running an uninspired generic right-wing campaign which would probably allow him to autopilot his way to victory in, say, an open Senate race, but seems very unlikely to cut it against a popular incumbent governor.

I fully agree. Great post. I knew it were few that actually lost reelection, but I'm kind of surprised it's actually that few who were voted out.

[GeorgiaModerate]

That's interesting because reguardless of if Beshear wins or loses, I expect smtg simillar to KS-Gov where the Dem has a massive overperformance statewide but re-alignment catches up. In 2022, Kelly lost a significant chunk of her rural support, but made gains in Johnson allowing her to just eek out another win.

That's the perfect summation of the Democrats' problems these days. They pick up rich areas like Johnson County, Kansas, but lose people of normal means in rural areas.

Democrats in 2023 = Republicans in 1991

While I do agree your average resident in Johnson County is better off economically than your average rural Kansas resident, I would not call the voters Dems have been gaining in Johnson County wealthy, moreso professional or upper-middle-class.

The median income in Johnson County is roughly 92k/year. That's def enough to live a decent quality of life, but not enough to be removed from the economic concerns most Americans face and doesn't give you true financial freedom.

Also consider that generally the "educated elite" types Democrats have been gaining with tend to live in communities that are just more expensive to live in, have demanding jobs, and had to invest a lot of time and money into their education. Once you adjust for those factors, I think the economic delta between the rural KS and KY voters Dems have been losing and suburban voters Dems have been gaining is a lot smaller than topline income stats would suggest.

There is a lot of evidence to suggest the truly rich (like 500k/year+) still lean overwhelmingly R, and didn't swing much to the left in 2020.

Democrats may be becoming the party of the upper middle or professional class, but not the rich.

I understand the sentiment here (and your point about cost of living is valid) but this feels like a stretch. And that's coming from someone who has really only lived in affluent areas my whole life (western Union County, NJ and NOVA).

A Household income of $92,000 is in the 62nd percentile -- so a family making that much is basically in the most affluent third of the nation. That's not rich (at least not in America) but it's certainly affluent, especially compared to non-US parts of the West.

There's certainly a distinction between the richer vs the upper middle class, but this feels like splitting hairs a little bit.

Upper half, not third.  62% is less than 2/3.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Is it pretty much guaranteed that Beshear finally loses the fabled Elliott county this year? Since his win in 2019, Trump improved his margin there from +45 to +51. Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul both won it for the first time by very large 35+ point margins. Even in the abortion referendum it was +18 on the Yes side.

[Skill and Chance]

That's interesting because reguardless of if Beshear wins or loses, I expect smtg simillar to KS-Gov where the Dem has a massive overperformance statewide but re-alignment catches up. In 2022, Kelly lost a significant chunk of her rural support, but made gains in Johnson allowing her to just eek out another win.

That's the perfect summation of the Democrats' problems these days. They pick up rich areas like Johnson County, Kansas, but lose people of normal means in rural areas.

Democrats in 2023 = Republicans in 1991

While I do agree your average resident in Johnson County is better off economically than your average rural Kansas resident, I would not call the voters Dems have been gaining in Johnson County wealthy, moreso professional or upper-middle-class.

The median income in Johnson County is roughly 92k/year. That's def enough to live a decent quality of life, but not enough to be removed from the economic concerns most Americans face and doesn't give you true financial freedom.

Also consider that generally the "educated elite" types Democrats have been gaining with tend to live in communities that are just more expensive to live in, have demanding jobs, and had to invest a lot of time and money into their education. Once you adjust for those factors, I think the economic delta between the rural KS and KY voters Dems have been losing and suburban voters Dems have been gaining is a lot smaller than topline income stats would suggest.

There is a lot of evidence to suggest the truly rich (like 500k/year+) still lean overwhelmingly R, and didn't swing much to the left in 2020.

Democrats may be becoming the party of the upper middle or professional class, but not the rich.

I understand the sentiment here (and your point about cost of living is valid) but this feels like a stretch. And that's coming from someone who has really only lived in affluent areas my whole life (western Union County, NJ and NOVA).

A Household income of $92,000 is in the 62nd percentile -- so a family making that much is basically in the most affluent third of the nation. That's not rich (at least not in America) but it's certainly affluent, especially compared to non-US parts of the West.

There's certainly a distinction between the richer vs the upper middle class, but this feels like splitting hairs a little bit.

Upper half, not third.  62% is less than 2/3.

Yes, and there is a serious distinction where those making ~2X the local average are more Dem than those at the local average, but it snaps back really hard once you get to families bringing in more than the average cost of a house in their community per year (IMO a very compelling definition for truly wealthy).  The latter are considerably more R everywhere, and in many cases were more R in 2020 than in 2016.  Also, note that the somewhat above average income families are more Dem in areas where expenses are higher, and that generic white collar jobs quite clearly haven't keeping up with inflation since COVID.  The cutoff for things to snap back R might be only $200K in the Louisville suburbs but $1M+ in SF/NYC.

[Duke of York]

If Beshear wins is there any chance Democrats could win any other statewide offices?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If Beshear wins is there any chance Democrats could win any other statewide offices?

Seriously, it's almost zero at this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beshear will win back2back polls show Beshear up 9 Cameron is obviously polling low in the rural areas lower than Bevin

[Sir Mohamed]

A big part of the reason why I think Beshear is strongly favoured to win is that incumbent governors very rarely lose re-election, and popular incumbent governors basically never lose re-election. Consider:

Incumbent governor losses in the last 10 years:
Nevada 2022: Lombardo beat Sisolak
Kentucky 2019: Beshear beat Bevin
Illinois 2018: Pritzker beat Rauner
Wisconsin 2018: Evers beat Walker
North Carolina 2016: Cooper beat McCrory
Alaska 2014: Walker beat Parnell
Illinois 2014: Rauner beat Quinn
Pennsylvania 2014: Wolf beat Corbett

All of the very small number of defeated incumbents (only eight in 10 years!) were either massively unpopular (Bevin, Rauner, Quinn, and Corbett), hugely divisive (Walker and McCrory), or, at best, enjoyed decisively lukewarm approvals (Sisolak and Parnell). None of these currently apply to Beshear, of course, who is one of the ten most popular governors in the country. Perhaps also worth noting is that only two of the above eight defeated incumbents were Democrats. Furthermore, the winning challengers in the list above were basically all particularly strong and/or moderate candidates, which is certainly not true of Cameron; he, as has been noted in this thread, is running an uninspired generic right-wing campaign which would probably allow him to autopilot his way to victory in, say, an open Senate race, but seems very unlikely to cut it against a popular incumbent governor.

Interesting list. Another two to consider are Neil Abercrombie, who lost renomination in 2014, and Jeff Colyer, who narrowly lost a contested primary in 2018. Latter wasn't elected in the first place though and just had a few months in the job. That said, I have little doubt Colyer would have won the GE.

[wbrocks67]

It's almost as if the GOP/Cameron are barely trying:

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1699816002136002932

[ReallySuper]

Is it pretty much guaranteed that Beshear finally loses the fabled Elliott county this year? Since his win in 2019, Trump improved his margin there from +45 to +51. Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul both won it for the first time by very large 35+ point margins. Even in the abortion referendum it was +18 on the Yes side.

at the same election rand paul won it with 68% of the vote, elliott county voted like this downballot:



at the state/local level it is still very much a dem county. even tho its obviously a pro-life county, it voted against the other amendment last year sponsored by the gop legislature that would have taken power away from the governor in calling special sessions. plus with how close beshear is keeping rocky adkins to him in both his administration and campaign there's basically no way it votes for cameron

[Hope For A New Era]

Latter wasn't elected in the first place though and just had a few months in the job. That said, I have little doubt Colyer would have won the GE.

I wouldn't be so sure. Colyer was Brownback's lieutenant governor. He was never viscerally disliked the way Brownback and Kobach were, but it's not at all hard to tie them together in a campaign, and Kelly is a very strong candidate. It would have been closer, but I could easily imagine an alternate-universe Kelly-Colyer 2018 looking very much like Kelly-Schmidt 2022.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/BGPolitics/status/1701795601711517816

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/BGPolitics/status/1701795601711517816

In practice, money in politics only matters logarithmically, but if you can outraise your opponent 5X as Beshear has done, that's significant.

[EastwoodS]

I did a fun little "Yik Yak" poll of my college, I asked people who they would vote for in 2023, for context, this is a moderate, left-of-center college in a deep red, suburban county of Lexington. People had 4 options; Andy, Cameron, not voting, and I don't know..
Out of 426 voters in this poll, Beshear won like 60%, Cameron came in 4th place with 9%, lolo. Not really telling of much but still funny.