Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Progressive Pessimist]

My worry with Beshear is that pollsters are correctly estimating his support in polling (47-50%) while severely underestimating Cameron, like what happened in Louisiana. In fact, pollsters in Kentucky have a history of doing that. KY 2014, KY 2015 Governors, KY senate 2016, KY Senate 2020, for example. KY Senate 2022 polling (55-39 Paul vs the result of 38.19-61.8 for Paul).

I mean, even if that were the case, most pollsters have had Beshear around 50%.

That's what's standing out to me as well. And Cameron has never exceeded 47%.

Say what you will about the Louisiana gubernatorial election polling, but they did come close to capturing the percentage of the vote that Wilson ended up with.

[EastwoodS]

My worry with Beshear is that pollsters are correctly estimating his support in polling (47-50%) while severely underestimating Cameron, like what happened in Louisiana. In fact, pollsters in Kentucky have a history of doing that. KY 2014, KY 2015 Governors, KY senate 2016, KY Senate 2020, for example. KY Senate 2022 polling (55-39 Paul vs the result of 38.19-61.8 for Paul).

I mean, even if that were the case, most pollsters have had Beshear around 50%.

That's what's standing out to me as well. And Cameron has never exceeded 47%.

Say what you will about the Louisiana gubernatorial election polling, but they did come close to capturing the percentage of the vote that Wilson ended up with.

Beshear is more around 48%, close but not quite 50%. There is a lot of hesitancy in polling to actually put him above 50%, which is what is actually striking me as odd.

[wbrocks67]

My worry with Beshear is that pollsters are correctly estimating his support in polling (47-50%) while severely underestimating Cameron, like what happened in Louisiana. In fact, pollsters in Kentucky have a history of doing that. KY 2014, KY 2015 Governors, KY senate 2016, KY Senate 2020, for example. KY Senate 2022 polling (55-39 Paul vs the result of 38.19-61.8 for Paul).

I mean, even if that were the case, most pollsters have had Beshear around 50%.

That's what's standing out to me as well. And Cameron has never exceeded 47%.

Say what you will about the Louisiana gubernatorial election polling, but they did come close to capturing the percentage of the vote that Wilson ended up with.

Beshear is more around 48%, close but not quite 50%. There is a lot of hesitancy in polling to actually put him above 50%, which is what is actually striking me as odd.

Not sure where you're getting this. There's only been a few polls recently, 1 Dem internal, 2 GOP internal, and Emerson. Everything else is pretty old. That being said, they've been 52, 49, 48, 47. Closer to 50 then 47-48.

[EastwoodS]

My worry with Beshear is that pollsters are correctly estimating his support in polling (47-50%) while severely underestimating Cameron, like what happened in Louisiana. In fact, pollsters in Kentucky have a history of doing that. KY 2014, KY 2015 Governors, KY senate 2016, KY Senate 2020, for example. KY Senate 2022 polling (55-39 Paul vs the result of 38.19-61.8 for Paul).

I mean, even if that were the case, most pollsters have had Beshear around 50%.

That's what's standing out to me as well. And Cameron has never exceeded 47%.

Say what you will about the Louisiana gubernatorial election polling, but they did come close to capturing the percentage of the vote that Wilson ended up with.

Beshear is more around 48%, close but not quite 50%. There is a lot of hesitancy in polling to actually put him above 50%, which is what is actually striking me as odd.

Not sure where you're getting this. There's only been a few polls recently, 1 Dem internal, 2 GOP internal, and Emerson. Everything else is pretty old. That being said, they've been 52, 49, 48, 47. Closer to 50 then 47-48.

Sorry to disappoint, but the poll of him at 52 is garbage. That whole polling firm should be ignored. You must have totally ignored what I said about them.

[wbrocks67]

My worry with Beshear is that pollsters are correctly estimating his support in polling (47-50%) while severely underestimating Cameron, like what happened in Louisiana. In fact, pollsters in Kentucky have a history of doing that. KY 2014, KY 2015 Governors, KY senate 2016, KY Senate 2020, for example. KY Senate 2022 polling (55-39 Paul vs the result of 38.19-61.8 for Paul).

I mean, even if that were the case, most pollsters have had Beshear around 50%.

That's what's standing out to me as well. And Cameron has never exceeded 47%.

Say what you will about the Louisiana gubernatorial election polling, but they did come close to capturing the percentage of the vote that Wilson ended up with.

Beshear is more around 48%, close but not quite 50%. There is a lot of hesitancy in polling to actually put him above 50%, which is what is actually striking me as odd.

Not sure where you're getting this. There's only been a few polls recently, 1 Dem internal, 2 GOP internal, and Emerson. Everything else is pretty old. That being said, they've been 52, 49, 48, 47. Closer to 50 then 47-48.

Sorry to disappoint, but the poll of him at 52 is garbage. That whole polling firm should be ignored. You must have totally ignored what I said about them.

Beshear at 52% is not unrealistic at all.

[EastwoodS]

My worry with Beshear is that pollsters are correctly estimating his support in polling (47-50%) while severely underestimating Cameron, like what happened in Louisiana. In fact, pollsters in Kentucky have a history of doing that. KY 2014, KY 2015 Governors, KY senate 2016, KY Senate 2020, for example. KY Senate 2022 polling (55-39 Paul vs the result of 38.19-61.8 for Paul).

I mean, even if that were the case, most pollsters have had Beshear around 50%.

That's what's standing out to me as well. And Cameron has never exceeded 47%.

Say what you will about the Louisiana gubernatorial election polling, but they did come close to capturing the percentage of the vote that Wilson ended up with.

Beshear is more around 48%, close but not quite 50%. There is a lot of hesitancy in polling to actually put him above 50%, which is what is actually striking me as odd.

Not sure where you're getting this. There's only been a few polls recently, 1 Dem internal, 2 GOP internal, and Emerson. Everything else is pretty old. That being said, they've been 52, 49, 48, 47. Closer to 50 then 47-48.

Sorry to disappoint, but the poll of him at 52 is garbage. That whole polling firm should be ignored. You must have totally ignored what I said about them.

Beshear at 52% is not unrealistic at all.

No, it's not and I expect him to win by 4 or so. But I don't like how that poll is always +8 for Democrat's no matter what election they are polling.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult's new Q3 ratings are out and Beshear has a 60/35 approval rating, including 58/31 among Independents and 43/53 among Republicans

[GAinDC]

Morning Consult's new Q3 ratings are out and Beshear has a 60/35 approval rating, including 58/31 among Independents and 43/53 among Republicans

No way he loses with those numbers

Does it seem strange to everyone that there's a huge gap between governors' approval ratings right now and Biden's?

Seems like people are saying "things are good in my state but not in America"

[Dave Hedgehog]

It's a noticeable knock from the 64-32 which he got in the last round of quarterly approvals. Undoubtedly strong numbers regardless, but is this a sign Cameron is gaining steam at last?

[wbrocks67]

It's a noticeable knock from the 64-32 which he got in the last round of quarterly approvals. Undoubtedly strong numbers regardless, but is this a sign Cameron is gaining steam at last?

I mean, if the best Cameron/GOP can do is knock him from 64/32 to 60/35 then they're not doing a very good job.

EDIT: looks like it only went down because Republicans went from 49/48 to 43/53

https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1719353782067454311

[Progressive Pessimist]

Morning Consult's new Q3 ratings are out and Beshear has a 60/35 approval rating, including 58/31 among Independents and 43/53 among Republicans

No way he loses with those numbers

Does it seem strange to everyone that there's a huge gap between governors' approval ratings right now and Biden's?

Seems like people are saying "things are good in my state but not in America"

This seems to be the case to me too. Which is just baffling. I don't know how the layperson distinguishes what is which politicians' responsibility anymore.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1719438063015711129

I'm sure some of Trump's MAGA fans will believe this.  But is there anyone who believes it that wasn't already voting for Cameron?

[cg41386]

Is he stuck in 2020?

[ReallySuper]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1719438063015711129

I'm sure some of Trump's MAGA fans will believe this.  But is there anyone who believes it that wasn't already voting for Cameron?

wait why did no one tell me beshear was this based??

[Alben Barkley]

I have seen more Cameron signs pop up in recent days/weeks and do expect this to be a close race, but I still give Beshear the edge.

[Tekken_Guy]

I have seen more Cameron signs pop up in recent days/weeks and do expect this to be a close race, but I still give Beshear the edge.

How would you rate Cameron’s chances of pulling the upset?

[Alben Barkley]

I have seen more Cameron signs pop up in recent days/weeks and do expect this to be a close race, but I still give Beshear the edge.

How would you rate Cameron’s chances of pulling the upset?

20-25%, I think the betting markets more or less have it right.

[Alben Barkley]

Interestingly, I completely agree with this guy's analysis on PredictIt. Never thought I would say that:

A few things to consider here:

1) The two recent comps to this race would be Kansas (2022) and Lousiana (2019). Both were Democratic governors who replaced HIGHLY incompetent Republican governors, were generally considered to have had effective first terms, but runnng for re-election in ruby red states. Kelly won re-election by 2.2%. Bel Edwards won re-election by 2.6%.

2) The Beshear family political history in Kentucky does matter somewhat. This is not an outsider. To some degree, I guarantee race does too (especially in Eastern Kentucky)

3) Trump has done absolutely nothing to help Cameron. Where's the rally?

4) There is mounting evidence that MAGAs only turn out during presidential years.

All things considered, Beshear +3 is probably the most probable outcome. But the lack of any real push from MAGA forces to get involved in this could really push this higher.

[EastwoodS]

I have seen more Cameron signs pop up in recent days/weeks and do expect this to be a close race, but I still give Beshear the edge.

Yeah, I've seen late support for him, it is too late, too little for him though

[EastwoodS]

Early voted, in Louisville today, good enthusiasm and crowds already for just 8:30 a.m. You love to see it.

[wbrocks67]

Beshear with the crucial Jack Harlow endorsement

https://twitter.com/AndyBeshearKY/status/1720093022791356766

[EastwoodS]

Emerson has it TIED. holy f-. 47-47 now. I knew late breakers would go to Cameron.

[SnowLabrador]

I wonder how much of this late movement towards Cameron is actual momentum and how much of it is just partisanship kicking in. My prediction is still Beshear +2, but it's a lot more tentative than before.

[EastwoodS]

I wonder how much of this late movement towards Cameron is actual momentum and how much of it is just partisanship kicking in. My prediction is still Beshear +2, but it's a lot more tentative than before.

I think the race was, in reality, probably always pretty close. A republican saying they will vote Beshear 3 months out doesn't psyche them out compared to when the time comes and the ballot is actually in front of their face, imo.

[wbrocks67]

Unless I'm misinterepting osmething... this is a complete lie? The guy says around 4:40 that "GOP groups have been able to largely make up the difference" in spending and that the differences overall are "not extreme"

Uh, Beshear has outraised Cameron in candidate funds like 5:1 IIRC, and while outside spending is nearly tied, that still brings Beshear to an overall like $15-20M difference in Dem vs. GOP spending.

https://twitter.com/danbayens/status/1720421224197558307