Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I couldn't believe he did better in Campbell County than his statewide average. It used to be unthinkable for a Democrat to do better in Campbell County than statewide.

Eh it should be fairly predictable with how white suburbanites swung left in just about every election since 2017

[Skill and Chance]

Really curious to see if Beshear can crack 70% in Jefferson County. In 2019 he got 67% but I think he'll need higher out of there to win this time around.

A bit more of a stretch but also Fayette County. My guess is he gets around 69%, up from 65% last time around. Like Jefferson, he'll likely need to improve on his 2019 performance here if he wants to win.

I think he looses most if not all of that collection of blue counties in eastern KY he won back in 2019, but still massively outruns Biden in these communities.



Honestly crazy how this County map might be enough for a Beshear victory. Light red Counties flipped from 2019.

This map being a plausible Dem win is why they shouldn't 100% give up on Kentucky, even federally.  It is possible for a Dem to win by just absolutely blowing it out in the cities. 

[MT Treasurer]

Tilt Beshear.

He's popular enough to be slightly favored, but he's veering a lot closer to the national Dem platform than would be optimal.

I think this race offers some clues for 2024 just due to the sheer similarities in the candidates' profiles and branding (see the previous posts in this thread), campaign issues (e.g. abortion and crime), and coalition changes (Beshear/Biden won with a very similar coalition in 2019/2020).

I see three scenarios for this race:

1) Scenario I: Very close race (within 2 points)

This might suggest that the polls showing Biden vs. Trump as a tie aren’t off the mark and that Trump is at least in it — another close/-ish race in 2024, with both candidates having a very narrow path.
 
2) Scenario II: Easier-than-expected Beshear win (5-10 points), race is called ~1 hour after poll closing time

This would suggest that Republicans are in for an avalanche in 2024 and haven’t been able to capitalize on a favorable environment or the incumbent's more liberal record due to their own party being viewed as even less of a viable alternative.

3) Scenario III: Cameron wins by at least 3, race is called ~2 hours after poll closing time

This would suggest that things really have changed since 2020 and 2022 and that there have been sizable shifts against the incumbent.

I’m aware that this is not perfect, but remember that the state has had a fairly good track record when it comes to forecasting shifts for the next cycle's presidential election.

Scenario II might be underrated — while a Pressley overperformance in MS would be another win for the JBE model, Beshear winning this race very easily on the same night would be an ominous sign for the GOP.

[TML]

Tilt Beshear.

He's popular enough to be slightly favored, but he's veering a lot closer to the national Dem platform than would be optimal.

I think this race offers some clues for 2024 just due to the sheer similarities in the candidates' profiles and branding (see the previous posts in this thread), campaign issues (e.g. abortion and crime), and coalition changes (Beshear/Biden won with a very similar coalition in 2019/2020).

I see three scenarios for this race:

1) Scenario I: Very close race (within 2 points)

This might suggest that the polls showing Biden vs. Trump as a tie aren’t off the mark and that Trump is at least in it — another close/-ish race in 2024, with both candidates having a very narrow path.
 
2) Scenario II: Easier-than-expected Beshear win (5-10 points), race is called ~1 hour after poll closing time

This would suggest that Republicans are in for an avalanche in 2024 and haven’t been able to capitalize on a favorable environment or the incumbent's more liberal record due to their own party being viewed as even less of a viable alternative.

3) Scenario III: Cameron wins by at least 3, race is called ~2 hours after poll closing time

This would suggest that things really have changed since 2020 and 2022 and that there have been sizable shifts against the incumbent.

I’m aware that this is not perfect, but remember that the state has had a fairly good track record when it comes to forecasting shifts for the next cycle's presidential election.

Scenario II might be underrated — while a Pressley overperformance in MS would be another win for the JBE model, Beshear winning this race very easily on the same night would be an ominous sign for the GOP.

Some people have mentioned how downballot realignment might mean a rather unpredictable map in terms of which counties are carried by Beshear in the event of him winning. Would it surprise you if Beshear's winning map involves him being completely shut out of the Eastern KY Coalfield Counties (with the possible exception of Rowan, since it has continued to vote more D than the state at-large in recent elections)?

[Tekken_Guy]

Tilt Beshear.

He's popular enough to be slightly favored, but he's veering a lot closer to the national Dem platform than would be optimal.

I think this race offers some clues for 2024 just due to the sheer similarities in the candidates' profiles and branding (see the previous posts in this thread), campaign issues (e.g. abortion and crime), and coalition changes (Beshear/Biden won with a very similar coalition in 2019/2020).

I see three scenarios for this race:

1) Scenario I: Very close race (within 2 points)

This might suggest that the polls showing Biden vs. Trump as a tie aren’t off the mark and that Trump is at least in it — another close/-ish race in 2024, with both candidates having a very narrow path.
 
2) Scenario II: Easier-than-expected Beshear win (5-10 points), race is called ~1 hour after poll closing time

This would suggest that Republicans are in for an avalanche in 2024 and haven’t been able to capitalize on a favorable environment or the incumbent's more liberal record due to their own party being viewed as even less of a viable alternative.

3) Scenario III: Cameron wins by at least 3, race is called ~2 hours after poll closing time

This would suggest that things really have changed since 2020 and 2022 and that there have been sizable shifts against the incumbent.

I’m aware that this is not perfect, but remember that the state has had a fairly good track record when it comes to forecasting shifts for the next cycle's presidential election.

Scenario II might be underrated — while a Pressley overperformance in MS would be another win for the JBE model, Beshear winning this race very easily on the same night would be an ominous sign for the GOP.

Honestly I don’t see much correlation. Beshear and Trump can both win because KY-GOV is less nationalized than the presidential race will be. Cameron and Biden can both win because Kentucky is a red state but we are not a red country.

I do however think that the results of this year’s race will give us an idea who is favored in NC-GOV next year.

[Skill and Chance]

Tilt Beshear.

He's popular enough to be slightly favored, but he's veering a lot closer to the national Dem platform than would be optimal.

I think this race offers some clues for 2024 just due to the sheer similarities in the candidates' profiles and branding (see the previous posts in this thread), campaign issues (e.g. abortion and crime), and coalition changes (Beshear/Biden won with a very similar coalition in 2019/2020).

I see three scenarios for this race:

1) Scenario I: Very close race (within 2 points)

This might suggest that the polls showing Biden vs. Trump as a tie aren’t off the mark and that Trump is at least in it — another close/-ish race in 2024, with both candidates having a very narrow path.
 
2) Scenario II: Easier-than-expected Beshear win (5-10 points), race is called ~1 hour after poll closing time

This would suggest that Republicans are in for an avalanche in 2024 and haven’t been able to capitalize on a favorable environment or the incumbent's more liberal record due to their own party being viewed as even less of a viable alternative.

3) Scenario III: Cameron wins by at least 3, race is called ~2 hours after poll closing time

This would suggest that things really have changed since 2020 and 2022 and that there have been sizable shifts against the incumbent.

I’m aware that this is not perfect, but remember that the state has had a fairly good track record when it comes to forecasting shifts for the next cycle's presidential election.

Scenario II might be underrated — while a Pressley overperformance in MS would be another win for the JBE model, Beshear winning this race very easily on the same night would be an ominous sign for the GOP.

Kentucky is very old school demographics wise.  I think it could help us figure out where Dems stand with mildly pro-choice WWC types in a partisan race.  Could help give us a sense of where WI/MI/PA are at.  I don’t think it tells us a darn thing about AZ or NV, though, and little about GA (an R swing with black voters might show up in Louisville?).

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

A gubernational race usually means little in the way of predicting federal races, as polarization is far less salient. This is especially true when a popular incumbent is running, making the race even less predictive, as the popular incumbent usually way overperforms partisanship in a way that's nearly impossible for federal races.

I wouldn't be surprised if Beshear held on to Elliott County in the gubernational race, only for it to vote for Trump by nearly 60 points in 2024.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Really curious to see if Beshear can crack 70% in Jefferson County. In 2019 he got 67% but I think he'll need higher out of there to win this time around.

A bit more of a stretch but also Fayette County. My guess is he gets around 69%, up from 65% last time around. Like Jefferson, he'll likely need to improve on his 2019 performance here if he wants to win.

I think he looses most if not all of that collection of blue counties in eastern KY he won back in 2019, but still massively outruns Biden in these communities.



Honestly crazy how this County map might be enough for a Beshear victory. Light red Counties flipped from 2019.

This map being a plausible Dem win is why they shouldn't 100% give up on Kentucky, even federally.  It is possible for a Dem to win by just absolutely blowing it out in the cities. 

I mean, one could make that argument about nearly any R-leaning state. Also even though he’s not winning many counties, this map requires Beshear to get like 30-40% in many rurals across the state where Biden got sub-20%. With Biden 2020 numbers in rural KY, a Dem could do as well as they want in Lexington and Louisville but it wouldn’t be anywhere near enough to carry the state.

[Skill and Chance]

A gubernational race usually means little in the way of predicting federal races, as polarization is far less salient. This is especially true when a popular incumbent is running, making the race even less predictive, as the population incumbent usually way overperforms partisanship in a way that's nearly impossible for federal races.

I wouldn't be surprised if Beshear held on to Elliott County in the gubernational race, only for it to vote for Trump by nearly 60 points in 2024.

Good point.  Historically, the 3rd year of the presidential term elections don’t correlate with much.  Lots of history of Dems who are very different from the national party running and winning in these states.  The general rule in the VA legislature is a underwhelming performance for the governor’s party, but there are exceptions.  There’s a really strong tendency for the president’s party to underperform in the 1st year elections (NJ/VA), but it doesn’t carry over.  

[Xing]

I would still maintain that the “so goes KY-GOV so goes the presidency” will be true until it isn’t, and it’s more of a coincidence than a pattern. Beshear’s main obstacle (the partisan lean of his state) is quite different in nature from Biden’s (his popularity.) All four combinations of results (Beshear/Biden, Beshear/Trump, Cameron/Biden, Cameron/Trump) have at least a chance of happening.

[Ferguson97]

I don't think it's gonna be close. Beshear wins by 6-8 points.

[Tekken_Guy]

I would still maintain that the “so goes KY-GOV so goes the presidency” will be true until it isn’t, and it’s more of a coincidence than a pattern. Beshear’s main obstacle (the partisan lean of his state) is quite different in nature from Biden’s (his popularity.) All four combinations of results (Beshear/Biden, Beshear/Trump, Cameron/Biden, Cameron/Trump) have at least a chance of happening.

And Cameron’s main obstacle is outside factors (Beshear’s popularity, the localized nature of gubernatorial elections) while Trump’s issues are largely self-inflicted.

And there are more than four combinations given the possibility that one of Trump or Biden lose the primary, drop out, or even die.

[Alben Barkley]

The ads here are something else.

Daniel Cameron: "Beshear hates cops!"

Andy Beshear: "No, here's 6 cops backing me!"

Cameron: "Beshear supports youth transition!"

Beshear: "Nuh uh!"

Cameron: "Beshear released convicts!"

Beshear: "So did Bevin, and you supported him! Also supported him when he tried to strip healthcare away and f--k over teachers!"

It literally is like watching a duel on live TV over and over and over and over again... More than any other election in my memory, which is really saying something. It's obvious both parties see this race as extremely competitive and are investing a lot into it. Probably more for the symbolic value than anything else: If the Republicans win, they can maybe get some momentum going into 2024 and crack down on the narrative that they're out of touch post-Dobbs. If the Democrats win, they can maybe point to it as yet another post-Dobbs victory in a red state and highlight the popularity of a promising young star in their party.

Because at the end of the day, with the GOP's veto-proof majority here, it doesn't matter THAT MUCH on the legislative level who wins, really. But you could never guess it based on how fiercely this race is being fought!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beshear and Presley win 52/48

[ProgressiveModerate]

The ads here are something else.

Daniel Cameron: "Beshear hates cops!"

Andy Beshear: "No, here's 6 cops backing me!"

Cameron: "Beshear supports youth transition!"

Beshear: "Nuh uh!"

Cameron: "Beshear released convicts!"

Beshear: "So did Bevin, and you supported him! Also supported him when he tried to strip healthcare away and f--k over teachers!"

It literally is like watching a duel on live TV over and over and over and over again... More than any other election in my memory, which is really saying something. It's obvious both parties see this race as extremely competitive and are investing a lot into it. Probably more for the symbolic value than anything else: If the Republicans win, they can maybe get some momentum going into 2024 and crack down on the narrative that they're out of touch post-Dobbs. If the Democrats win, they can maybe point to it as yet another post-Dobbs victory in a red state and highlight the popularity of a promising young star in their party.

Because at the end of the day, with the GOP's veto-proof majority here, it doesn't matter THAT MUCH on the legislative level who wins, really. But you could never guess it based on how fiercely this race is being fought!

Long term, is there anyway for Dems to break the GOP supermajority in the KY State Leg? At this point they've basically lost all the remaining conservadem rural seats. It seems like Dems are pretty close to rock bottom in the state leg at this point. There are def tenalzying possibilities long term in greater Lexington and Louisville, and even Bowling Green and outside Cinci. However, it still seems like it'd be pretty hard for them to break the supermajority.

If Republican's Lexington State Senate crack eventually backfires that might be Dems best bet, but that still seems pretty unlikely. Lexington's leftward shift is really underrated imo; not only did Fayette County swing 11 points left in 2020, but the counties around it all swung left by varying degrees.

Obv Lexington alone isn't going to be enough to make KY anywhere near competitive federally, but def could throw Ds KY-06 at some point. Honestly a bit suprised Rs didn't go for the crack.

[Alben Barkley]

The ads here are something else.

Daniel Cameron: "Beshear hates cops!"

Andy Beshear: "No, here's 6 cops backing me!"

Cameron: "Beshear supports youth transition!"

Beshear: "Nuh uh!"

Cameron: "Beshear released convicts!"

Beshear: "So did Bevin, and you supported him! Also supported him when he tried to strip healthcare away and f--k over teachers!"

It literally is like watching a duel on live TV over and over and over and over again... More than any other election in my memory, which is really saying something. It's obvious both parties see this race as extremely competitive and are investing a lot into it. Probably more for the symbolic value than anything else: If the Republicans win, they can maybe get some momentum going into 2024 and crack down on the narrative that they're out of touch post-Dobbs. If the Democrats win, they can maybe point to it as yet another post-Dobbs victory in a red state and highlight the popularity of a promising young star in their party.

Because at the end of the day, with the GOP's veto-proof majority here, it doesn't matter THAT MUCH on the legislative level who wins, really. But you could never guess it based on how fiercely this race is being fought!

Long term, is there anyway for Dems to break the GOP supermajority in the KY State Leg? At this point they've basically lost all the remaining conservadem rural seats. It seems like Dems are pretty close to rock bottom in the state leg at this point. There are def tenalzying possibilities long term in greater Lexington and Louisville, and even Bowling Green and outside Cinci. However, it still seems like it'd be pretty hard for them to break the supermajority.

If Republican's Lexington State Senate crack eventually backfires that might be Dems best bet, but that still seems pretty unlikely. Lexington's leftward shift is really underrated imo; not only did Fayette County swing 11 points left in 2020, but the counties around it all swung left by varying degrees.

Obv Lexington alone isn't going to be enough to make KY anywhere near competitive federally, but def could throw Ds KY-06 at some point. Honestly a bit suprised Rs didn't go for the crack.

To me that is just a matter of time. Lexington is going to LURCH left in 2024. Mark my words. Not just at the presidential and other high levels (we WILL here in Fayette crack 60% D for the first time since... ever), but also at the lower levels AND also the surrounding areas will swing hard left. There is a good chance Woodford County (the least Republican county in the surrounding Bluegrass area besides Franklin) flips outright, and Franklin flipping is a foregone conclusion. Certainly KY-06 has potential to be competitive with the right candidates and under the right circumstances; it VERY NEARLY flipped as it was in 2018, with a mediocre candidate in Amy McGrath (her primary opponent, Lexington Mayor Jim Gray, outright won the district in his senate campaign in 2016 even as Trump dominated).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's why I have wave insurance the Trump tax cuts of 2017 for the rich not middle class is so unpopular because the rich has the majority of the Wealth

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Long term, is there anyway for Dems to break the GOP supermajority in the KY State Leg?

I think the Democrats would have made some real progress in 2020 and 2022, except they've gotten so lousy themselves.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The ads here are something else.

Daniel Cameron: "Beshear hates cops!"

Andy Beshear: "No, here's 6 cops backing me!"

Cameron: "Beshear supports youth transition!"

Beshear: "Nuh uh!"

Cameron: "Beshear released convicts!"

Beshear: "So did Bevin, and you supported him! Also supported him when he tried to strip healthcare away and f--k over teachers!"

It literally is like watching a duel on live TV over and over and over and over again... More than any other election in my memory, which is really saying something. It's obvious both parties see this race as extremely competitive and are investing a lot into it. Probably more for the symbolic value than anything else: If the Republicans win, they can maybe get some momentum going into 2024 and crack down on the narrative that they're out of touch post-Dobbs. If the Democrats win, they can maybe point to it as yet another post-Dobbs victory in a red state and highlight the popularity of a promising young star in their party.

Because at the end of the day, with the GOP's veto-proof majority here, it doesn't matter THAT MUCH on the legislative level who wins, really. But you could never guess it based on how fiercely this race is being fought!

Long term, is there anyway for Dems to break the GOP supermajority in the KY State Leg? At this point they've basically lost all the remaining conservadem rural seats. It seems like Dems are pretty close to rock bottom in the state leg at this point. There are def tenalzying possibilities long term in greater Lexington and Louisville, and even Bowling Green and outside Cinci. However, it still seems like it'd be pretty hard for them to break the supermajority.

If Republican's Lexington State Senate crack eventually backfires that might be Dems best bet, but that still seems pretty unlikely. Lexington's leftward shift is really underrated imo; not only did Fayette County swing 11 points left in 2020, but the counties around it all swung left by varying degrees.

Obv Lexington alone isn't going to be enough to make KY anywhere near competitive federally, but def could throw Ds KY-06 at some point. Honestly a bit suprised Rs didn't go for the crack.

To me that is just a matter of time. Lexington is going to LURCH left in 2024. Mark my words. Not just at the presidential and other high levels (we WILL here in Fayette crack 60% D for the first time since... ever), but also at the lower levels AND also the surrounding areas will swing hard left. There is a good chance Woodford County (the least Republican county in the surrounding Bluegrass area besides Franklin) flips outright, and Franklin flipping is a foregone conclusion. Certainly KY-06 has potential to be competitive with the right candidates and under the right circumstances; it VERY NEARLY flipped as it was in 2018, with a mediocre candidate in Amy McGrath (her primary opponent, Lexington Mayor Jim Gray, outright won the district in his senate campaign in 2016 even as Trump dominated).

As someone more familiar with KY, what's the sense you get of Lexington as a community? What types of people tend to be moving there? What types of industry are there?

One thing I find interesting about Lexington is it seems there's quite a sharp dropoff between the suburbs and rural areas.

[Alben Barkley]

The ads here are something else.

Daniel Cameron: "Beshear hates cops!"

Andy Beshear: "No, here's 6 cops backing me!"

Cameron: "Beshear supports youth transition!"

Beshear: "Nuh uh!"

Cameron: "Beshear released convicts!"

Beshear: "So did Bevin, and you supported him! Also supported him when he tried to strip healthcare away and f--k over teachers!"

It literally is like watching a duel on live TV over and over and over and over again... More than any other election in my memory, which is really saying something. It's obvious both parties see this race as extremely competitive and are investing a lot into it. Probably more for the symbolic value than anything else: If the Republicans win, they can maybe get some momentum going into 2024 and crack down on the narrative that they're out of touch post-Dobbs. If the Democrats win, they can maybe point to it as yet another post-Dobbs victory in a red state and highlight the popularity of a promising young star in their party.

Because at the end of the day, with the GOP's veto-proof majority here, it doesn't matter THAT MUCH on the legislative level who wins, really. But you could never guess it based on how fiercely this race is being fought!

Long term, is there anyway for Dems to break the GOP supermajority in the KY State Leg? At this point they've basically lost all the remaining conservadem rural seats. It seems like Dems are pretty close to rock bottom in the state leg at this point. There are def tenalzying possibilities long term in greater Lexington and Louisville, and even Bowling Green and outside Cinci. However, it still seems like it'd be pretty hard for them to break the supermajority.

If Republican's Lexington State Senate crack eventually backfires that might be Dems best bet, but that still seems pretty unlikely. Lexington's leftward shift is really underrated imo; not only did Fayette County swing 11 points left in 2020, but the counties around it all swung left by varying degrees.

Obv Lexington alone isn't going to be enough to make KY anywhere near competitive federally, but def could throw Ds KY-06 at some point. Honestly a bit suprised Rs didn't go for the crack.

To me that is just a matter of time. Lexington is going to LURCH left in 2024. Mark my words. Not just at the presidential and other high levels (we WILL here in Fayette crack 60% D for the first time since... ever), but also at the lower levels AND also the surrounding areas will swing hard left. There is a good chance Woodford County (the least Republican county in the surrounding Bluegrass area besides Franklin) flips outright, and Franklin flipping is a foregone conclusion. Certainly KY-06 has potential to be competitive with the right candidates and under the right circumstances; it VERY NEARLY flipped as it was in 2018, with a mediocre candidate in Amy McGrath (her primary opponent, Lexington Mayor Jim Gray, outright won the district in his senate campaign in 2016 even as Trump dominated).

As someone more familiar with KY, what's the sense you get of Lexington as a community? What types of people tend to be moving there? What types of industry are there?

One thing I find interesting about Lexington is it seems there's quite a sharp dropoff between the suburbs and rural areas.

There is indeed such a dropoff, but not only did such a thing not used to exist, it used to be the REVERSE. The suburban precinct I grew up in used to be among the most Republican parts of town and now is the opposite, while some of the rural parts of KY-06 used to be some of the strongest Democratic parts of the district and now are the opposite.

Honestly this isn't a unique trend at all to Lexington, as we see voting habits shift based on education above all else.

Ultimately, I still see KY-06 as an area with untapped potential for Democrats. The voters here are nothing like deep Southerners. They are not so firmly entrenched in their ways that they would never even consider voting for a Democrat, and this includes even many in the rural R-trending areas. If anything the district is more like Wisconsin than Alabama. Yeah, on paper the R trends look bad for Dems in the rurals, but the suburbs still have room for growth and even the urban areas aren't maxed out yet. And the rurals/exurbs themselves could even whiplash as the Lexington metro expands outwards.

This is why I don't think KY-06 is a lost cause. Far from it. It's why I considered running in the district myself, despite knowing how much of a longshot and uphill battle it was. I knew the right candidate with the right message at the right time could win it and cause huge swings to occur in all the right places. Trump himself, ironically, was my role model in considering my campaign: He caused states that didn't even LOOK competitive under Obama to lurch far right because he was a perfect fit for the perfect moment in the perfect place. It's hard to be that Goldilocks candidate. REALLY hard. But IF you pull it off, the rewards are GREAT.

[Alcibiades]

A big part of the reason why I think Beshear is strongly favoured to win is that incumbent governors very rarely lose re-election, and popular incumbent governors basically never lose re-election. Consider:

Incumbent governor losses in the last 10 years:
Nevada 2022: Lombardo beat Sisolak
Kentucky 2019: Beshear beat Bevin
Illinois 2018: Pritzker beat Rauner
Wisconsin 2018: Evers beat Walker
North Carolina 2016: Cooper beat McCrory
Alaska 2014: Walker beat Parnell
Illinois 2014: Rauner beat Quinn
Pennsylvania 2014: Wolf beat Corbett

All of the very small number of defeated incumbents (only eight in 10 years!) were either massively unpopular (Bevin, Rauner, Quinn, and Corbett), hugely divisive (Walker and McCrory), or, at best, enjoyed decisively lukewarm approvals (Sisolak and Parnell). None of these currently apply to Beshear, of course, who is one of the ten most popular governors in the country. Perhaps also worth noting is that only two of the above eight defeated incumbents were Democrats. Furthermore, the winning challengers in the list above were basically all particularly strong and/or moderate candidates, which is certainly not true of Cameron; he, as has been noted in this thread, is running an uninspired generic right-wing campaign which would probably allow him to autopilot his way to victory in, say, an open Senate race, but seems very unlikely to cut it against a popular incumbent governor.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

All of the very small number of defeated incumbents (only eight in 10 years!) were either massively unpopular (Bevin, Rauner, Quinn, and Corbett)

Bevin basically stank to high hell, but somehow he only lost by a tiny margin.

[ReallySuper]

the courier journal made a map of where the gubernatorial candidates have campaigned since the primary
its kinda screwy tho bc its definition of a campaign event is pretty limited but still interesting ig

plus a new beshear ad attacking cameron on abortion

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I would say this is around 50-50 for either side. Beshear does have incumbency going for him, and it is true that incumbents rarely lose if they are somewhat popular. The issue with this take though, is it ignores many incumbents do worse in re-election even if they still win.

A big part of the reason why I think Beshear is strongly favoured to win is that incumbent governors very rarely lose re-election, and popular incumbent governors basically never lose re-election. Consider:

Incumbent governor losses in the last 10 years:
Nevada 2022: Lombardo beat Sisolak
Kentucky 2019: Beshear beat Bevin
Illinois 2018: Pritzker beat Rauner
Wisconsin 2018: Evers beat Walker
North Carolina 2016: Cooper beat McCrory
Alaska 2014: Walker beat Parnell
Illinois 2014: Rauner beat Quinn
Pennsylvania 2014: Wolf beat Corbett

All of the very small number of defeated incumbents (only eight in 10 years!) were either massively unpopular (Bevin, Rauner, Quinn, and Corbett), hugely divisive (Walker and McCrory), or, at best, enjoyed decisively lukewarm approvals (Sisolak and Parnell). None of these currently apply to Beshear, of course, who is one of the ten most popular governors in the country. Perhaps also worth noting is that only two of the above eight defeated incumbents were Democrats. Furthermore, the winning challengers in the list above were basically all particularly strong and/or moderate candidates, which is certainly not true of Cameron; he, as has been noted in this thread, is running an uninspired generic right-wing campaign which would probably allow him to autopilot his way to victory in, say, an open Senate race, but seems very unlikely to cut it against a popular incumbent governor.

All the red states you see on that map are incumbents who ran in 2022 and did worse than 2018. Yes, all of them except Sisolak won re-election but they key is they all did worse than their first election in 2018. (For NH and VT I used 2020 to compare). We can also talk about LA 2019 and NJ 2021. So while incumbent governors losing re-election is quite rare, them doing worse than their initial election certainly is not.

So what is my point? Beshear BARELY won in 2019, so basically doing worse is pretty much a loss for all intents and purposes. He didn't win by enough of a margin to afford losing any votes, so while the red states on this map had their incumbents still win, if a shift comparable to what happened in any of those states (except maybe Alaska) occurs in Kentucky it points to a Beshear loss.

[Roll Roons]

I would say this is around 50-50 for either side. Beshear does have incumbency going for him, and it is true that incumbents rarely lose if they are somewhat popular. The issue with this take though, is it ignores many incumbents do worse in re-election even if they still win.

A big part of the reason why I think Beshear is strongly favoured to win is that incumbent governors very rarely lose re-election, and popular incumbent governors basically never lose re-election. Consider:

Incumbent governor losses in the last 10 years:
Nevada 2022: Lombardo beat Sisolak
Kentucky 2019: Beshear beat Bevin
Illinois 2018: Pritzker beat Rauner
Wisconsin 2018: Evers beat Walker
North Carolina 2016: Cooper beat McCrory
Alaska 2014: Walker beat Parnell
Illinois 2014: Rauner beat Quinn
Pennsylvania 2014: Wolf beat Corbett

All of the very small number of defeated incumbents (only eight in 10 years!) were either massively unpopular (Bevin, Rauner, Quinn, and Corbett), hugely divisive (Walker and McCrory), or, at best, enjoyed decisively lukewarm approvals (Sisolak and Parnell). None of these currently apply to Beshear, of course, who is one of the ten most popular governors in the country. Perhaps also worth noting is that only two of the above eight defeated incumbents were Democrats. Furthermore, the winning challengers in the list above were basically all particularly strong and/or moderate candidates, which is certainly not true of Cameron; he, as has been noted in this thread, is running an uninspired generic right-wing campaign which would probably allow him to autopilot his way to victory in, say, an open Senate race, but seems very unlikely to cut it against a popular incumbent governor.

All the red states you see on that map are incumbents who ran in 2022 and did worse than 2018. Yes, all of them except Sisolak won re-election but they key is they all did worse than their first election in 2018. (For NH and VT I used 2020 to compare). We can also talk about LA 2019 and NJ 2021. So while incumbent governors losing re-election is quite rare, them doing worse than their initial election certainly is not.

So what is my point? Beshear BARELY won in 2019, so basically doing worse is pretty much a loss for all intents and purposes. He didn't win by enough of a margin to afford losing any votes, so while the red states on this map had their incumbents still win, if a shift comparable to what happened in any of those states (except maybe Alaska) occurs in Kentucky it points to a Beshear loss.

This map literally shows that 16 governors did better in their reelection bids compared to their previous race, while 10 did worse. Even if you want to count JBE in 2019 and Murphy in 2021, that still only brings it to 12 governors who did worse.

For that matter, if you include 2020, 6 governors (Carney, Holcomb, Sununu, Cooper, Scott, Inslee) did better than their previous races, while only 1 (Burgum) did worse.