Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs should be miles ahead of Beshear but they're not that's problematic for their red wave in 24

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Man, remember when Cameron was supposed to be Mitch McConnell's handpicked successor?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Cameron ended up being a terrible recruit; these tweets and videos are like parody.

I feel like several Republican recruitments in critical races up and down the ballot were a total failure over the last couple of years (see senate 2022, which even Mitch publically admitted and how 2024 is shaping up as well). They blew a ton of actually winnable races by nominating atrocious candidates. And even the ones they won, they were just bailed out by partisan lean and environment.

It looks like they are doing somewhat better in 2024, such as recruiting Jim Justice. I agree that at the moment in  someother states that they're not doing a great job, such as Montana and Ohio.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol the problem isn't recruiting we have all we need except tax hikes on Wealthy and Reparations that Indians get per Capita

[MT Treasurer]

KY Fraternal Order of Police endorses Cameron for Governor -

https://www.lpm.org/news/2023-08-15/ky-fraternal-order-of-police-endorses-daniel-cameron-in-race-for-governor

They endorsed Beshear in 2019, Conway in 2015 (and 2010 for Senate), and Steve Beshear in 2007/2011.

[SnowLabrador]

KY Fraternal Order of Police endorses Cameron for Governor -

https://www.lpm.org/news/2023-08-15/ky-fraternal-order-of-police-endorses-daniel-cameron-in-race-for-governor

They endorsed Beshear in 2019, Conway in 2015 (and 2010 for Senate), and Steve Beshear in 2007/2011.

The question is, how much sway do these people have? Of course, given how close the 2019 governor's race was, anything can matter.

[wbrocks67]

This is really the best the GOP has? Beshear comes off totally normal in his ads while Cameron's ads are all more stuff like this. I get this is KY after all, but no wonder Cameron is sort of flatlining

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1692169704616378734

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KY Fraternal Order of Police endorses Cameron for Governor -

https://www.lpm.org/news/2023-08-15/ky-fraternal-order-of-police-endorses-daniel-cameron-in-race-for-governor

They endorsed Beshear in 2019, Conway in 2015 (and 2010 for Senate), and Steve Beshear in 2007/2011.

They also endorsed Bailey for Gov of IL

[SnowLabrador]

This is really the best the GOP has? Beshear comes off totally normal in his ads while Cameron's ads are all more stuff like this. I get this is KY after all, but no wonder Cameron is sort of flatlining

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1692169704616378734

Cameron knows what the GOP base wants, and in Kentucky, that's all you really need.

[Alben Barkley]

This is really the best the GOP has? Beshear comes off totally normal in his ads while Cameron's ads are all more stuff like this. I get this is KY after all, but no wonder Cameron is sort of flatlining

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1692169704616378734

Cameron knows what the GOP base wants, and in Kentucky, that's all you really need.

Of course YOU think that.

Meanwhile, here actually on the ground in a state you've never stepped foot in, I for one think Beshear hurt himself by vetoing that bill, and said so at the time (and now considering it is literally THE subject of the attack ads, when otherwise they would have had virtually NOTHING, I feel vindicated in saying so), but that he is still very much in the race and probably favored.

In this article for example is an excellent new ad I literally just saw on my own local TV, with the old sheriff of Floyd County full-throatedly endorsing Beshear as the best governor in his lifetime:

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/candidates-release-dueling-tv-ads-kentucky-governors-race-rcna100188

That kind of stuff speaks to folks here. Although, yes, it does hurt that Beshear lost his FOP endorsement this time. But unsurprising given the Breonna Taylor drama.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

There is now a PredictIt market on this race. The odds seem reasonable.

[Senator Incitatus]

There is now a PredictIt market on this race. The odds seem reasonable.

I would buy on Cameron. Even if he doesn't win, I'm guessing his odds improve close to Election Day.

[Xing]

There is now a PredictIt market on this race. The odds seem reasonable.

I would buy on Cameron. Even if he doesn't win, I'm guessing his odds improve close to Election Day.

Yeah, I’d say that 60/40 is probably closer to where I’d put this, and I’m sure there will at least be moments in which the market will move toward 50/50, even if Beshear ultimately wins.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

There is now a PredictIt market on this race. The odds seem reasonable.

I would buy on Cameron. Even if he doesn't win, I'm guessing his odds improve close to Election Day.

Yeah, I’d say that 60/40 is probably closer to where I’d put this, and I’m sure there will at least be moments in which the market will move toward 50/50, even if Beshear ultimately wins.

It was 62/38 when I posted this

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race is over and the Rs argument about adding new voters for 24 is just not true WI we lost to Johnson and won the judge race by 11 in April and Beshear is gonna improve o. His 39K margin and win by 8 Cameron was supposed to win this race by 8

[wbrocks67]

There is now a PredictIt market on this race. The odds seem reasonable.

I would buy on Cameron. Even if he doesn't win, I'm guessing his odds improve close to Election Day.

Do they though? We're only 2 months out at this point, months removed from the primary, and Cameron has done pretty much nothing to improve his position. He kind of wasted the summer. If he's just going to be talking about culture wars for the next 60 days...

[SnowLabrador]

There is now a PredictIt market on this race. The odds seem reasonable.

I would buy on Cameron. Even if he doesn't win, I'm guessing his odds improve close to Election Day.

Do they though? We're only 2 months out at this point, months removed from the primary, and Cameron has done pretty much nothing to improve his position. He kind of wasted the summer. If he's just going to be talking about culture wars for the next 60 days...

Again, Cameron knows what his base wants. He'll deliver it, and they'll vote for him. Beshear is an underdog.

[Duke of York]

There is now a PredictIt market on this race. The odds seem reasonable.

I would buy on Cameron. Even if he doesn't win, I'm guessing his odds improve close to Election Day.

Do they though? We're only 2 months out at this point, months removed from the primary, and Cameron has done pretty much nothing to improve his position. He kind of wasted the summer. If he's just going to be talking about culture wars for the next 60 days...

Again, Cameron knows what his base wants. He'll deliver it, and they'll vote for him. Beshear is an underdog.

Yet polling isn't showing that. You have such a pessimistic attitude.

[wbrocks67]

There is now a PredictIt market on this race. The odds seem reasonable.

I would buy on Cameron. Even if he doesn't win, I'm guessing his odds improve close to Election Day.

Do they though? We're only 2 months out at this point, months removed from the primary, and Cameron has done pretty much nothing to improve his position. He kind of wasted the summer. If he's just going to be talking about culture wars for the next 60 days...

Again, Cameron knows what his base wants. He'll deliver it, and they'll vote for him. Beshear is an underdog.

Yet polling isn't showing that. You have such a pessimistic attitude.

Exactly - if this was a run of the mill election for like senate or something, then yes, probably that is true, but this race is clearly different - people approve of Beshear, they like him. So going after him in this particular way doesn't seem to be doing Cameron any favors because it all just sounds like nonsense when they actually *like* Beshear already.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beshear I'd we get the Filibuster proof Trifecta, and we should. Scott is the most vulnerable R out there , Beshesr will be the 26 D nominee for S in KY Sen replacement of McConnell

[Skill and Chance]

Beshear I'd we get the Filibuster proof Trifecta, and we should. Scott is the most vulnerable R out there , Beshesr will be the 26 D nominee for S in KY Sen replacement of McConnell

Yes, Beshear is not only going to win, he's going to win by so much that his coattails extend all the way into 2024 and flip the state senate from 80% R to 60% D in a single election.  KY Dems will sweep 75% Trump districts while he is on the ballot, obviously!

[Skill and Chance]

Tilt Beshear.

He's popular enough to be slightly favored, but he's veering a lot closer to the national Dem platform than would be optimal.

[ReallySuper]

obviously beshear is DOA bc kentucky is a far-right ultrareactionary hyperconservative state and the extreme gop base will carry their nominee to a landslide victory. this is evidenced by the fact that the voters of ky passed constitutional amendment 2 banning abortion in all circumstances last year by a massive margin and the gop primary was won by crazed culture war campaigner kelly craft and second place went to her maga maniac lt gov nominee eric deters. therefore ky will never vote for baby killer andy bc the rightwing base will turn out bigly to destroy him

[ProgressiveModerate]

Really curious to see if Beshear can crack 70% in Jefferson County. In 2019 he got 67% but I think he'll need higher out of there to win this time around.

A bit more of a stretch but also Fayette County. My guess is he gets around 69%, up from 65% last time around. Like Jefferson, he'll likely need to improve on his 2019 performance here if he wants to win.

I think he looses most if not all of that collection of blue counties in eastern KY he won back in 2019, but still massively outruns Biden in these communities.



Honestly crazy how this County map might be enough for a Beshear victory. Light red Counties flipped from 2019.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I couldn't believe he did better in Campbell County than his statewide average. It used to be unthinkable for a Democrat to do better in Campbell County than statewide.