Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[SnowLabrador]

Safe R unless Beshear faces Matt Bevin again, in which case it's Lean R. I expect him to lose bigly.

[SnowLabrador]

Unless Matt Bevin is the GOP nominee again, Beshear is screwed in 2023.

[SnowLabrador]

I've said it before and I'll say it again: The only way Beshear wins is if he faces Bevin again, and even then it's 50-50 at best for him.

[SnowLabrador]

Craft's "momentum" reminds me of Kathy Barnette's in Pennsylvania last year. Cameron will comfortably win the primary.

[SnowLabrador]

It may be only 7%, but I’m feeling good about my take.

[SnowLabrador]

Do Democrats have a chance to win any other statewide officers other than Governor?

Nope. Even Beshear will be lucky to win. There was one poll with him leading Cameron by 9 points, but he was at 49, and what's more, the primary hadn't occurred yet, so the red team hadn't consolidated yet. I expect the race to massively tighten.

[SnowLabrador]

KY Fraternal Order of Police endorses Cameron for Governor -

https://www.lpm.org/news/2023-08-15/ky-fraternal-order-of-police-endorses-daniel-cameron-in-race-for-governor

They endorsed Beshear in 2019, Conway in 2015 (and 2010 for Senate), and Steve Beshear in 2007/2011.

The question is, how much sway do these people have? Of course, given how close the 2019 governor's race was, anything can matter.

[SnowLabrador]

This is really the best the GOP has? Beshear comes off totally normal in his ads while Cameron's ads are all more stuff like this. I get this is KY after all, but no wonder Cameron is sort of flatlining

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1692169704616378734

Cameron knows what the GOP base wants, and in Kentucky, that's all you really need.

[SnowLabrador]

There is now a PredictIt market on this race. The odds seem reasonable.

I would buy on Cameron. Even if he doesn't win, I'm guessing his odds improve close to Election Day.

Do they though? We're only 2 months out at this point, months removed from the primary, and Cameron has done pretty much nothing to improve his position. He kind of wasted the summer. If he's just going to be talking about culture wars for the next 60 days...

Again, Cameron knows what his base wants. He'll deliver it, and they'll vote for him. Beshear is an underdog.

[SnowLabrador]

I wouldn't be terribly surprised after what happened in Louisiana yesterday. How about you all?

[SnowLabrador]

While you can't compare Louisiana too directly to Kentucky, I think it's clear that this race is much less favorable to Beshear than polling may show. How was he going to win by high single digits if even Laura Kelly, in a less red state with similar approval ratings, only won by 2 points last year?

[SnowLabrador]

The Lexington Herald interviewed some strategists and politicians that seem to think there is some late momentum for Cameron over the last week or so, citing Kentucky is difficult to predict and a lot of conservatives don't finalize their decision until late in the season.

That doesn't surprise me. And I'm not saying that just because I'm a "doomer", but rather because of both the Louisiana results and the fact that partisanship often kicks in in red states. I'm sticking with my prediction of Beshear +2, but I would not be that surprised to see him lose.

[SnowLabrador]

I wonder how much of this late movement towards Cameron is actual momentum and how much of it is just partisanship kicking in. My prediction is still Beshear +2, but it's a lot more tentative than before.

[SnowLabrador]

If Cameron wins, how much momentum do you think that gives the GOP heading into 2024?

[SnowLabrador]

With mail inclduded, the early vote has ended at about D+9.8.
🔴Republicans - 130,877 (42.35%)
🔵Democrats - 160,994 (52.09%)
🟠Independents - 17,172 (5.56%)

Do you know what it was at this point in 2019? I would say looking it this it's anyone's game maybe Beshear with a slight favorite?

These early voters are probably more engaged, more urban, and more moderate/liberal. The early Vote is probably like Beshear +15 right now.

only 16.5% of the early vote is from jefferson county (in 2019, over 19% of the total vote came from louisville). lexington is also underrepresented but to a lesser extent.

this could mean either 1. urban areas are not turning out this year as much as they did in 2019 (obviously bad for beshear) or 2. the election day vote will be more urban than expected (obviously good for beshear)

hard to tell which is true (or maybe both are?) given like u said theres not really a precedent. we will just have to see...

That’s crazy cities aren’t turning out considering they have the most polling places for early vote as opposed to rural counties that sometimes only have one? Could it mean, that rural conservatives are fired up?

It could be that Dobbs has faded as an election issue. People have just accepted that abortion is always gonna be illegal in half the country.