Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1678387799588761601

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1681020362069254144

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1681020362069254144

That time frame includes the entire COVID pandemic.  Beshear was relatively strict and probably ordered non-essential state offices closed at various times.  Has Cameron made any high-profile WFH = lazy comments that could be put into an ad about this?  If so, it could end up hurting him.  If not, meh.

[ReallySuper]

cameron picked his running mate today: state senator robby mills

boring! shouldve picked eric deters after he invited cameron to a party in his backyard feat. donald trump and friends, or if he really wanted a legislator he couldve at least gotten one of the fun crazies like maddox as a thank-you for dropping out early. unfortunately he went the lame strategic route by picking a western ky "mainstream" conservative to hammer home the anti-trans campaign and keep the region safe gop.

[BigZuck08]

Lean D

[Bandit3 the Worker]

cameron picked his running mate today: state senator robby mills

He managed to pick the worst running mate possible.

I think a lot of people are just going to stay home on Election Day.

[Duke of York]

cameron picked his running mate today: state senator robby mills

He managed to pick the worst running mate possible.

I think a lot of people are just going to stay home on Election Day.

What makes him so bad?

If a lot of people don’t vote maybe that could help other Democrats win other statewide elections.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

What makes him so bad?

He's too right-wing even by Republican standards.

[Alben Barkley]

Honestly I'm not even sure why Republicans are so invested in flipping KY. Beshear has little actual power as all his vetoes can easily be overridden. He's basically a popular figurehead for the state, like some kind of constitutional monarch or ceremonial head of state. Just leaving him be would be for the best for the state, as it gives us stability and someone Democrats can point to with pride while Republicans can still implement all their policies.

Probably the real reason is to set up Cameron to be McConnell's successor. But I was honestly surprised he ran, as I thought it was an unnecessary risk for him; Cocaine Mitch is probably retiring soon, and Cameron could have been next in line as AG without risking a humiliating defeat in this race. Maybe a secondary motivation is to eliminate Beshear as a threat for a future spot on a Democratic presidential ticket as a popular governor of a red state, and perhaps there's even an element of revenge motivating them. After all, Trump said he'd be the biggest loser ever if Bevin lost. Still, if I were them, I'd just have thrown up a sacrificial lamb candidate and not cared much if Beshear won. The GOP might be getting greedy here; if Cameron loses, which now looks likelier than not, he'll be tainted and less likely to win a primary to be McConnell's successor.

[Хahar 🤔]

Honestly I'm not even sure why Republicans are so invested in flipping KY. Beshear has little actual power as all his vetoes can easily be overridden. He's basically a popular figurehead for the state, like some kind of constitutional monarch or ceremonial head of state. Just leaving him be would be for the best for the state, as it gives us stability and someone Democrats can point to with pride while Republicans can still implement all their policies.

Probably the real reason is to set up Cameron to be McConnell's successor. But I was honestly surprised he ran, as I thought it was an unnecessary risk for him; Cocaine Mitch is probably retiring soon, and Cameron could have been next in line as AG without risking a humiliating defeat in this race. Maybe a secondary motivation is to eliminate Beshear as a threat for a future spot on a Democratic presidential ticket as a popular governor of a red state, and perhaps there's even an element of revenge motivating them. After all, Trump said he'd be the biggest loser ever if Bevin lost. Still, if I were them, I'd just have thrown up a sacrificial lamb candidate and not cared much if Beshear won. The GOP might be getting greedy here; if Cameron loses, which now looks likelier than not, he'll be tainted and less likely to win a primary to be McConnell's successor.

Do Republicans need to set up Cameron to succeed McConnell? They're going to hold McConnell's seat no matter what. If Cameron does lose this election, then that would presumably be good for other ambitious Republicans, since McConnell's seat will be open to them. In that sense it would seem to make sense for other Republicans to be pushing Cameron here.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/DanielCameronAG/status/1688282710060466176

Cameron posts a video of him... getting booed at an event.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Beshear is the favorite here and "muh partisanship" is not a good enough reason to think otherwise.

[NewYorkExpress]

Honestly I'm not even sure why Republicans are so invested in flipping KY. Beshear has little actual power as all his vetoes can easily be overridden. He's basically a popular figurehead for the state, like some kind of constitutional monarch or ceremonial head of state. Just leaving him be would be for the best for the state, as it gives us stability and someone Democrats can point to with pride while Republicans can still implement all their policies.

Probably the real reason is to set up Cameron to be McConnell's successor. But I was honestly surprised he ran, as I thought it was an unnecessary risk for him; Cocaine Mitch is probably retiring soon, and Cameron could have been next in line as AG without risking a humiliating defeat in this race. Maybe a secondary motivation is to eliminate Beshear as a threat for a future spot on a Democratic presidential ticket as a popular governor of a red state, and perhaps there's even an element of revenge motivating them. After all, Trump said he'd be the biggest loser ever if Bevin lost. Still, if I were them, I'd just have thrown up a sacrificial lamb candidate and not cared much if Beshear won. The GOP might be getting greedy here; if Cameron loses, which now looks likelier than not, he'll be tainted and less likely to win a primary to be McConnell's successor.

Even with a loss here, I think Cameron would still be the front-runner in a primary to succeed McConnell in 2026. He's the kind of candidate the NRSC would probably try to clear a primary field for (African-American, recent statewide officeholder).

[Schiff for Senate]

Honestly I'm not even sure why Republicans are so invested in flipping KY. Beshear has little actual power as all his vetoes can easily be overridden. He's basically a popular figurehead for the state, like some kind of constitutional monarch or ceremonial head of state. Just leaving him be would be for the best for the state, as it gives us stability and someone Democrats can point to with pride while Republicans can still implement all their policies.

Probably the real reason is to set up Cameron to be McConnell's successor. But I was honestly surprised he ran, as I thought it was an unnecessary risk for him; Cocaine Mitch is probably retiring soon, and Cameron could have been next in line as AG without risking a humiliating defeat in this race. Maybe a secondary motivation is to eliminate Beshear as a threat for a future spot on a Democratic presidential ticket as a popular governor of a red state, and perhaps there's even an element of revenge motivating them. After all, Trump said he'd be the biggest loser ever if Bevin lost. Still, if I were them, I'd just have thrown up a sacrificial lamb candidate and not cared much if Beshear won. The GOP might be getting greedy here; if Cameron loses, which now looks likelier than not, he'll be tainted and less likely to win a primary to be McConnell's successor.

Even with a loss here, I think Cameron would still be the front-runner in a primary to succeed McConnell in 2026. He's the kind of candidate the NRSC would probably try to clear a primary field for (African-American, recent statewide officeholder).

You may be overestimating the amount of power/influence the NRSC has in senate primaries.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1681020362069254144

That time frame includes the entire COVID pandemic.  Beshear was relatively strict and probably ordered non-essential state offices closed at various times.  Has Cameron made any high-profile WFH = lazy comments that could be put into an ad about this?  If so, it could end up hurting him.  If not, meh.

Most people consider the act of covid. To have ended at least 18 to 24 months ago. He tries to argue that he hasn't been to his office in the last year and a half to two years because of covid, that's not going to pass the smell test for any but the most partisan hack.

Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but if played right I could see this gaining traction and legs. " Daniel Cameron failed to show up for work for the past 3 years. Never entering his own office one time. When other people do that on the job, they get fired. But Daniel Cameron instead is asking for a promotion!

If Daniel Cameron couldn't be counted on to show up for work as attorney general for 3 years, why should Kentucky voters now trust him to work for jobs and education as governor? ( Fade to screen with Bevin for governor logo)"

[wbrocks67]

Cameron ended up being a terrible recruit; these tweets and videos are like parody.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Hate to say this, but Beshear seems like a slight favorite now. This is despite Beshear being no different than a generic Democrat, who imposed extremely harsh COVID restrictions.

Ryan Brune's take seems to be Beshear winning by 2, like Kelly and Edwards. That seems about right.

[wbrocks67]

Hate to say this, but Beshear seems like a slight favorite now. This is despite Beshear being no different than a generic Democrat, who imposed extremely harsh COVID restrictions.

Ryan Brune's take seems to be Beshear winning by 2, like Kelly and Edwards. That seems about right.

Maybe voters may actually want to reward someone for trying to keep them safe!

[Хahar 🤔]

Hate to say this, but Beshear seems like a slight favorite now. This is despite Beshear being no different than a generic Democrat, who imposed extremely harsh COVID restrictions.

Ryan Brune's take seems to be Beshear winning by 2, like Kelly and Edwards. That seems about right.

Maybe voters may actually want to reward someone for trying to keep them safe!

More likely is that covid is an entirely dead issue now.

[Roll Roons]

Hate to say this, but Beshear seems like a slight favorite now. This is despite Beshear being no different than a generic Democrat, who imposed extremely harsh COVID restrictions.

Ryan Brune's take seems to be Beshear winning by 2, like Kelly and Edwards. That seems about right.

Maybe voters may actually want to reward someone for trying to keep them safe!

This is one of the dumbest things I've ever seen on here.

Republicans literally won VA because of voter anger about school closures and the not-inaccurate belief that McAuliffe would continue to impose restrictions, seeing as he repeatedly lied about how many kids were hospitalized with COVID.

If Beshear wins, it will be in spite of the restrictions, not because of them.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Hate to say this, but Beshear seems like a slight favorite now. This is despite Beshear being no different than a generic Democrat, who imposed extremely harsh COVID restrictions.

Ryan Brune's take seems to be Beshear winning by 2, like Kelly and Edwards. That seems about right.

Maybe voters may actually want to reward someone for trying to keep them safe!

This is one of the dumbest things I've ever seen on here.

Republicans literally won VA because of voter anger about school closures and the not-inaccurate belief that McAuliffe would continue to impose restrictions, seeing as he repeatedly lied about how many kids were hospitalized with COVID.

If Beshear wins, it will be in spite of the restrictions, not because of them.

That was part of it sure, but it was also that McAuliffe fell asleep at the wheel. Despite being in a fairly safe blue state, he barely outraised Youngkin. This was also around the height of the conservative panic and fearmongering that democrats would do all sorts of stupid untrue nonsense to kids in school.

This sight dramatically overestimated the impact of school closures. It’s not like it’s just single issue parents vote.

[Sestak]

Hate to say this, but Beshear seems like a slight favorite now. This is despite Beshear being no different than a generic Democrat, who imposed extremely harsh COVID restrictions.

Ryan Brune's take seems to be Beshear winning by 2, like Kelly and Edwards. That seems about right.

Maybe voters may actually want to reward someone for trying to keep them safe!

This is one of the dumbest things I've ever seen on here.

Republicans literally won VA because of voter anger about school closures and the not-inaccurate belief that McAuliffe would continue to impose restrictions, seeing as he repeatedly lied about how many kids were hospitalized with COVID.

If Beshear wins, it will be in spite of the restrictions, not because of them.

No, it will be neither. Nobody wants to hear about COVID anymore. Not as an attack against Republican policies or against Dem ones. Individuals who did really egregious things might still have leftover resentment against them. For anyone else, it becomes a nonfactor; I don't think any opponent benefits from trying to relitigate a time that no one really wants to recall.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

No, it will be neither. Nobody wants to hear about COVID anymore. Not as an attack against Republican policies or against Dem ones. Individuals who did really egregious things might still have leftover resentment against them. For anyone else, it becomes a nonfactor; I don't think any opponent benefits from trying to relitigate a time that no one really wants to recall.

People I know have long memories, and they still vote based on COVID.

[Alben Barkley]

Hate to say this, but Beshear seems like a slight favorite now. This is despite Beshear being no different than a generic Democrat, who imposed extremely harsh COVID restrictions.

Ryan Brune's take seems to be Beshear winning by 2, like Kelly and Edwards. That seems about right.

Maybe voters may actually want to reward someone for trying to keep them safe!

This is one of the dumbest things I've ever seen on here.

Republicans literally won VA because of voter anger about school closures and the not-inaccurate belief that McAuliffe would continue to impose restrictions, seeing as he repeatedly lied about how many kids were hospitalized with COVID.

If Beshear wins, it will be in spite of the restrictions, not because of them.

That was part of it sure, but it was also that McAuliffe fell asleep at the wheel. Despite being in a fairly safe blue state, he barely outraised Youngkin. This was also around the height of the conservative panic and fearmongering that democrats would do all sorts of stupid untrue nonsense to kids in school.

This sight dramatically overestimated the impact of school closures. It’s not like it’s just single issue parents vote.

Thanks for reminding me that Kentucky will vote to the left of 2021 Virginia this year.

[jamestroll]

I have seen some bizarre takes online that voted VA so Democratic because of Covid in 2020.

Nope.  There was the Trump factor and anti-democracy and good government were major factors.

Covid is the major reason why Democrats lost all three statewide races in VA in 2021.

Also, the GOP concede VA in 2020. They probably won't in 2024, only to lose it by 7 or 8 points.

Hate to say this, but Beshear seems like a slight favorite now. This is despite Beshear being no different than a generic Democrat, who imposed extremely harsh COVID restrictions.

Ryan Brune's take seems to be Beshear winning by 2, like Kelly and Edwards. That seems about right.

Maybe voters may actually want to reward someone for trying to keep them safe!

This is one of the dumbest things I've ever seen on here.

Republicans literally won VA because of voter anger about school closures and the not-inaccurate belief that McAuliffe would continue to impose restrictions, seeing as he repeatedly lied about how many kids were hospitalized with COVID.

If Beshear wins, it will be in spite of the restrictions, not because of them.

No, it will be neither. Nobody wants to hear about COVID anymore. Not as an attack against Republican policies or against Dem ones. Individuals who did really egregious things might still have leftover resentment against them. For anyone else, it becomes a nonfactor; I don't think any opponent benefits from trying to relitigate a time that no one really wants to recall.

People I know have long memories, and they still vote based on COVID.

WHO?? I voted in the Senate based on Covid in 2022, but I was one of the very few thinking of Covid at that point.

I think its only you and I left still bitching about covid.

[President Johnson]

Cameron ended up being a terrible recruit; these tweets and videos are like parody.

I feel like several Republican recruitments in critical races up and down the ballot were a total failure over the last couple of years (see senate 2022, which even Mitch publically admitted and how 2024 is shaping up as well). They blew a ton of actually winnable races by nominating atrocious candidates. And even the ones they won, they were just bailed out by partisan lean and environment.