An Effective Consensus

[KaiserDave]

1976 Vice Presidential Debate on ABC News





Wikimedia Commons

Welcome to the Alley Theatre in Houston, Texas to the Vice Presidential debate. I'm James Hoge of the Chicago Sun Times and I'll be hosting this Vice Presidential debate. In a moment we will welcome the candidates, Governor James Earl Carter of Georgia and National Security Advisor George Herbert Walker Bush of Texas. There were be no clapping, except at the end, and right now. We now welcome Governor Carter, and Advisor Bush....

(Candidates enter to applause)


Governor Carter, in your statewide campaigns in Georgia, you've opposed all school busing, but as a candidate you've said there are some situations where it can work, how do you explain this change of position?

Jimmy Carter: Well James my position didn't change. When I was Lieutenant Governor and now as Governor I opposed forced busing because it didn't work at that time in Georgia. I stand by that, but as Vice Presidential candidate to Senator Glenn, of course I recognize that school busing is needed in some places and as President, John Glenn will support busing where necessary. We can support busing where it works, and oppose busing where it doesn't work.

National Security Advisor Bush?

George Bush: I support school integration, the Republican Party supports school integration. Birch Bayh supports school integration. We will integrate schools in this country. Not just in race, but we will make sure that disabled children have access to the dignity of an education, as President Romney has pushed for, and we will enforce Title IX, which Senator Bayh drafted, to make sure we have gender equality in our schools. I won't tap-dance on this issue. Birch Bayh and I will support busing to integrate schools.


Governor Carter, how will you and Senator Glenn jumpstart the US economy?

Jimmy Carter: Well I think we have to operate like most Americans do. I ran a peanut farm, on the farm you can't spend money you don't have. I can't say why the federal government does. Georgia balances its budgets, but Washington doesn't do that anymore. John Glenn and I will introduce an alternative minimum tax, we will close tax loopholes, and we will scale back some of these new programs, and return them to the states. Sound budgets, and yes, we need sound money. We cannot put all this new money into the economy, while also cutting taxes. It won't work, and John Glenn and I will take us in a better economic direction.

George Bush: Well my response would be is that we tried that. President Wallace combined hard money with a rigid tax structure and combined with his violence on the streets, we spiraled into a recession. It's the Wallace path, or the Romney path. Soft money and low taxes. More growth, lower prices, lower taxes, better jobs. The growth is horizontal, everyone's doing better. Middle class families are making more money, more kids are exiting college on a path to success. Under the Glenn plan, we know who benefits the most, and it's not small businesses and middle class families.

Jimmy Carter: Pivoting again to George Wallace. George Wallace is not the nominee of this party. John Glenn is, I think the American people know the difference. But furthermore, under John Glenn we can afford to invest more in education, in schools, in our kids, in the future. But with Birch Bayh and George Bush, we will just have bigger deficits, and more unsustainable debt.

George Bush: What I don't understand is why the Bayh plan keeps being attacked when the current economy is so strong, Bayh will continue the strategy that got us here, with tax relief for job creators, investment in public services and infrastructure, and by ending the antiquated gold standard. Whereas there are some people in the Democratic Party who still think we ought to go back to the gold standard. I think we have a choice in November, between Republican prosperity of smart, liberal policy, or the Democratic plan of a stagnant economy.


Governor Carter, how will you make sure the gas crisis in 1974 never occurs again?

Jimmy Carter: The answer is peace James. As President and Vice President, John Glenn and I will negotiate a lasting peace in the middle east with Israel and its neighbors. When we have stability in the middle east, we will have low gas prices at home. We can say good bye to lines at the pump if we have peace in the Middle East. Not to mention the moral virtue of bringing peace to an entire that has only known war these past decades, we as a Americans, as humans have a duty to seek an end to the violence. Once we do that we can begin transitioning to greener, more efficient fuels for the future.

George Bush: Well I think we have to follow the example set by President Romney. More fuel efficient vehicles, better use of gas, we have to be responsible. Birch Bayh and I will work to make sure we are being careful, responsible with our use of petroleum. We have to invest in the Strategic Petroleum reserve, and we have to make sure our domestic oil production is stronger than ever. That way the next time this happens, we will be prepared. As for negotiation, I think we can look for peace in that region, I think it would be right. But we also have to make sure that the vehicles on our roads are more efficient, are cleaner, and that we are more responsible in regards to our usage of oil.

[Elcaspar]

Me thinks that an October Surprise might be in store for us since Bayh and Bush did well in the Debates.

[S019]

So my thoughts are the Glenn had a very bad answer on balancing the budget, so Bayh probably won the debate, but the VP debate seemed to be a tie. I also agree with Elcaspar, in that the Democrats probably need a major late break in the campaign to win.

[KaiserDave]

Polling Map (Gallup)


Birch Bayh/George Bush: 50.4%/285
John Glenn/James Carter: 48.1%/253
John Schmitz/Asa Carter: 1.3%/0

Gallup Poll: President Romney Job Approval October 1976



Wikimedia Commons

Approve: 58%
Disapprove: 37%

[We Live in Black and White]

So if my math is on track here, Glenn only needs to flip Montana, Wisconsin, and Delaware to flip the election, if the polling map is correct. This is gonna be a close one.

[KaiserDave]

Campaign 1976

Wikimedia Commons


The Presidential debate was viewed as a victory for Birch Bayh, but not decisive. He solidified his coalition but his gains were limited. People thought Bush did better in his debate, but that debate had 20 million less viewers. Overall, the effect was just that Bayh and Glenn voters were more excited. An election many had predicted to be a quiet, low turnout affair after the chaos of 1964, 1968, and 1972, was now heading into high gear.

There was no question that John Glenn would do better than Wilbur Mills and George Wallace in '72 and '68. There was no convention chaos, the party was united, and had consolidated around new voting constituencies. While the Humphrey and McCarthy Democrats were long gone, the Goldwater Republicans and the new suburban voting bloc had become new Democratic voters. The Ted Kennedy primary voters were liberal yes, but they were loyal Democrats. Irish Catholics, many rural voters, and ethnic groups in the cities that had in '64 voted for George Corley Wallace. The Democratic Party had burned and melted like wax between the years of 1964 and 1976, but it had been reshaped, remolded. It entered 1976 contending states that had been un-winnable just four years before. But its new coalition was different, and it had a different geographical composition. Jack Kennedy had won New York and Massachusetts, but these states were now off limits for John Glenn and Jimmy Carter. But the west had opened up. The Great Plains wasn't much interested in Birch Bayh's unrepentant liberalism. This would all inform the campaign strategies.

Senator Glenn pushed through the midwest, if he could carry a trifecta of Ohio, Illinois, and Indiana the election be over. He had success. People appreciated his calm demeanor, his admirable and courageous background as the first man in orbit, and his calm way of explaining things, the twinkle in his eye when someone asked a question he was excited to talk about. His platform was an approachable centrism with conservative instincts. It resembled nothing of George Wallace, but neither did it Birch Bayh. But he also spent time in the Great Plains. He stopped in Topeka, Omaha, Pierre, Denver, and Billings. The Great Plains had for so long been a reliable Republican voting base, even Hoover carried them in 1932. Not so anymore. Glenn committed to the farm vote, on cultural issues of big city liberalism, of rejecting the eastern establishment, but then on the issue of balancing budgets to ensure a sound economy and dollar. Jimmy Carter spent his time consolidating the southern vote, which was expected to go to the Democrats, but he made sure voters were on side and especially Florida. Could this deliver victory?

Birch campaigned to make sure the core of the Romney coalition stayed in tact. He invested much time in Illinois, where he tried to make inroads with the Union vote. He filled Madison Square Garden to capacity, and continued to contest Pennsylvania with rallies in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Birch's strategy was simple, double down on liberal Republicanism and the policies of George Romney. Given the success of the current economy, this was successful, but he lost many on the moderate periphery of the coalition to John Glenn, along with many Reaganites. It was George Bush's job to wrangle these people back into the fold, he courted donors, undecided voters, and drew every last drop out of the fabled nexus of money and power:the eastern establishment. Bayh also had dedicated campaign staffers, with a certain Ms. Hillary Rodham leading an incredibly effective campaign operation in Illinois. Going into the last week of the election, Bayh looked strong. He held rallies with the President and his son Willard Mitt in Ohio and Indiana to close out the election. Though perhaps he should've spent one or two more days in the Great Plains, which had been neglected.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Oh God Bayh is gonna lose the plains and the election isn't he.

[KaiserDave]

Cast your ballots folks!

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Bayh is the guy for me

[S019]

I'm voting for Bayh, but I think he probably loses Montana and Wisconsin, at least, from the description that you gave.

[Elcaspar]

Definitely Bayh/Bush for me. Although Glenn/Carter was better than i expected from the Democrats.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

All in for Birch.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Im for Glenn

[VirginiaAaron]

I'm for Birch

[OSR STANDS WITH PALESTINE]

Birch Bayh/George Bush 1976!

[We Live in Black and White]

Bayh/Bush, but Glenn/Carter wouldn't necessarily be the end of the world.

[VirginiaAaron]

Bayh/Bush, but Glenn/Carter wouldn't necessarily be the end of the world.

[Continential]

Birch Bayh 1976!

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Bayh/Bush, but Glenn/Carter wouldn't necessarily be the end of the world.

[KaiserDave]

Campaign 1976: Election Night

Birch Bayh/George Bush: 49.9%/237
John Glenn/Jimmy Carter: 49.0%/218

Hillary Rodham sat at the disordered table at the Bayh Chicago Headquarters. Her hair was a mess, and ears were ringing. After several months after campaigning, all kind of work (some strategies more ethical than others), the campaign was over. But now at last the room was quiet save for the ringing of the phones out for inside looks at results. Illinois had finally gone to Bayh after all the results had come in. It was a great relief, Wallace's 1964 victory had included Illinois, but this year it was back in the Republican column. However the race remained close. Despite victories in the east, midwest, and west, victory was not certain. A handful of Great Plains states had put everything in jeopardy, of course in every state Glenn was over-performing Mills, but out west these gains were especially pronounced. Of course, Pennsylvania was also still in the air. If Bayh could just grab their 27 electoral votes he could perhaps bring the race to a close, but it remained close. Wisconsin was also changing hands. Hillary had been used to Republican victories, but this race was testing her and the entire team. She had helped deliver Illinois, but the nationwide election was still very much in flux. Hillary watched as the red and blue colors danced on the screen, and the nation's future swung from side to side.

She turned around, to hear more reports about states changing hands, percentages changing, and everything becoming much, much, more confusing.

[Stm85]

I’d vote for Glenn

[KaiserDave]

Campaign 1976: Election Night

John Glenn/Jimmy Carter: 49.5%/264
Birch Bayh/George Bush: 49.3%/257

Casper Wyoming was a small town. It reported few results in election time. Not many people had heard of it. But today it was the center of the nation's attention. National press was driving out from bigger cities nearby to cover the close results there. At the moment Bayh narrowly led Glenn, but many precincts had yet to report results. National news turned their attention to the state as the hopes of both sides turned to it. However a vice was about to pull the state around and propel it in one direction.

Gary Swale was a Democratic political operative out of Casper. He was an Oil Democrat through and through. Ask him who his favorite Democrat was and he'd tell you it was John Nance Garner, the man who called Herbert Hoover a socialist. He was watching the counting in Casper for the Democrats "Election Integrity" efforts in that election. He was no lover of Glenn, he thought he was some weak liberal. Carter was a pacifistic weirdo. However he hated Birch Bayh who he viewed as a radical, and George Bush he viewed as the worst of Republican elitism. He got a call on the phone.

"Gary. It's Dick."

"Sir what's going on?"

"Not your problem. I want you to head to the southwest corner of the counting building. There is a backdoor. There will be a man waiting-"

"But why"

"-he will leave you two crates. You will take the crates. Drive out of town. You will burn the contents-"

"What's inside?"

"-not your concern and you will tell nobody of your activities. Burn the contents and dump what's left in the river. Am I understood?"

"But why-"

"Am I understood?"

Swale paused. He knew what was up, but he thought back to 1960. Daley had done worse. He thought back to 1964, he'd done worse that year for Georgie.

"Yes sir."

Swale headed to the corner, and there was two crates. He carried them to his pickup truck unseen and drove off into the dark night. He headed out to a nearby empty campsite. He dumped the stacks of paper into the fire he had started and waited through the night as they burned. He shoveled what was left of the fire pit into the nearby river. The night was beginning to end, the first purple glows were starting to appear in the east. Maybe the morning paper would have the winner.

[KaiserDave]

Next post has comprehensive results

Any last predictions?

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Glenn ekes it out with under 280 EVs.

[Orwell]

Every vote is being counted in Wyoming good to know