2024: Trump runs third party

[Andrew Yang 2024]

What happens if the Republicans nominate someone that causes former President Trump to run third party? How much do the Dems win by? Also, Biden is running again after a decent first term(COVID pretty much ended by August 2021). 

[MATTROSE94]

Biden probably gets around 400 electoral votes, but still ends up losing Florida to the third party Donald Trump candidacy.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Romney, or some other moderate hero, supported by Lincoln Project types, narrowly defeats Pence, who had an active and full-throated Trump endorsement backing him, in a highly contested and bloody Republican primary. Enraged, Trump announces a third party bid - with Pence as his running mate.

Star Republicans are split. Some endorse Romney. Some endorse Trump. Some endorse neither. It ain't hard to predict who'd do what here. Just look at 2020.

We'd see some states' Republicans near-unanimously endorse Trump over Romney - Trump would have a great shot at winning those. Again: you can guess who.

The interesting factor here is Romney's ability to cut into Biden's support. How many of Biden's 80,000,000+ voters this year were purely voting against Trump? How many of those will stay at home if Trump is seen to have no chance at winning? How many of them can be persuaded to vote for Romney over Biden? How those scales tip might just open the doors to some interesting and unexpected battlegrounds. Obviously Utah is competitive in this scenario. But what about somewhere more Democratic like New Mexico? Colorado?

A couple close upsets could just throw this to the House - and that's where the real fun would be.

Oh yeah, and the three-way debates. Those would be fun too.

[McGarnagle]

Biden/Harris (D) ~50% 425 EV
Trump/Nunes (MAGA) ~28% 101 EV
Baker/Marshall (R) ~20% 12 EV

Republicans nominate a more moderate candidate in 2024, leading to Trump going into full revolt mode during the Republican primaries as it becomes apparent who will win them. Trump announces the formation of his new MAGA Party, lambastes Charlie Baker as a "liberal RINO" and urges the right to vote for him and help him pull a Cleveland. Pence endorses Trump but declines to be his running mate, so Trump chooses Devin Nunes.

Biden and Harris get a slightly lower percentage of the popular vote than in 2020, but due to the Republican split, win the first 400+ EV landslide since 1988. Baker, despite high approvals in his home state of Massachusetts, is annihilated, winning only Utah and Kansas with just 20% of the popular vote.

[President Johnson]

Unlikely this happens, but:



✓ President Joseph R. Biden (D-DE)/Vice President Kamala D. Harris (D-CA): 422 EV. (49.06%)
Former President Donald J. Trump (Fascist-FL)/Representative Jim Jordan (Fascist-OH): 58 EV. (24.76%)
Senator Benjamin Sasse (R-NE)/Senator Rob Portman (R-OH): 57 EV. (22.99%)

[MATTROSE94]

Biden/Harris (D) ~50% 425 EV
Trump/Nunes (MAGA) ~28% 101 EV
Baker/Marshall (R) ~20% 12 EV

Republicans nominate a more moderate candidate in 2024, leading to Trump going into full revolt mode during the Republican primaries as it becomes apparent who will win them. Trump announces the formation of his new MAGA Party, lambastes Charlie Baker as a "liberal RINO" and urges the right to vote for him and help him pull a Cleveland. Pence endorses Trump but declines to be his running mate, so Trump chooses Devin Nunes.

Biden and Harris get a slightly lower percentage of the popular vote than in 2020, but due to the Republican split, win the first 400+ EV landslide since 1988. Baker, despite high approvals in his home state of Massachusetts, is annihilated, winning only Utah and Kansas with just 20% of the popular vote.

Florida I think sticks with Donald Trump.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Is the old EVC still availible on this site?

[MATTROSE94]

Is the old EVC still availible on this site?

I think they got rid of it. The new EVC isn’t as good as the old one.

[SirRosetti]

Is the old EVC still availible on this site?

I think they got rid of it. The new EVC isn’t as good as the old one.

Is there any reason why they changed it?

[MATTROSE94]

Is the old EVC still availible on this site?

I think they got rid of it. The new EVC isn’t as good as the old one.

Is there any reason why they changed it?

No idea. The old one was 20 years old, so maybe they though it was time for a change?

[Chips]

Dem landslide.

[Hope For A New Era]

Let's just say we could congratulate President Wilson Biden on his landslide re-election.

This is my dream scenario, really.

[BigVic]

[TwinGeeks99]

After the results of the 2020 election, Republicans decide to nominate a more moderate candidate to run against incumbent President Joe Biden, Ohio senator Rob Portman. Unfortunately for them, this moderation angers the more conservative wing of their base, and they rally towards former President Donald Trump, who runs under his own new party called the American Greatness Party. Unsurprisingly, it ends up being another 1912 scenario, with the Republicans and Trump splitting the right-of-center vote almost evenly, allowing Joe Biden to easily win in a landslide despite receiving just over 45% of the vote.

[Stockdale for Veep]

The debates would be amazing. Prayers for the moderator.

[Andrew Yang 2024]

After the results of the 2020 election, Republicans decide to nominate a more moderate candidate to run against incumbent President Joe Biden, Ohio senator Rob Portman. Unfortunately for them, this moderation angers the more conservative wing of their base, and they rally towards former President Donald Trump, who runs under his own new party called the American Greatness Party. Unsurprisingly, it ends up being another 1912 scenario, with the Republicans and Trump splitting the right-of-center vote almost evenly, allowing Joe Biden to easily win in a landslide despite receiving just over 45% of the vote.

This would make me sad because I like Portman as a Senator. But I would be happy if Biden wins. Just sad to see Portman lose.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Is the old EVC still availible on this site?

I think they got rid of it. The new EVC isn’t as good as the old one.

Is there any reason why they changed it?

No idea. The old one was 20 years old, so maybe they though it was time for a change?

Is the old EVC still availible on this site?

I think they got rid of it. The new EVC isn’t as good as the old one.

Is there any reason why they changed it?

You can still access it via the election results part of Atlas (as opposed to the Forum): https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php