An Effective Consensus
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April 29, 2024, 12:54:56 PM
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  An Effective Consensus
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Author Topic: An Effective Consensus  (Read 40098 times)
Kuumo
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« Reply #650 on: October 06, 2020, 10:03:10 PM »

Ironically, the 1992 map is almost an inverse of the real 2000 map. Gore even wins 271 electoral votes, and Florida is only shaded >40% for the winning candidate. Al Gore still has a disadvantage in the electoral college though; he would have lost the election through Nevada if he had won the popular vote by Hillary Clinton's 2016 margin.

I'm also curious about the county maps in some states for the last few elections. In particular, the plains and mountain states have been swing states since John Glenn won some of them in 1976. Is Democratic strength in the Dakotas based in the eastern sides (as in our timeline) or the western sides of the states? Is eastern Idaho now the most Republican part of the state, since it has the most Mormons? Are the Democratic and Republican bases in Montana and Wyoming different or similar to those in our timeline's 1980s and 1990s?

I'm also wondering about the county maps in New York and Pennsylvania. I assume that the greater Scranton Area and southwest Pennsylvania vote strongly Democratic as in our timeline at this time, but central Pennsylvania, the Philadelphia area, and most of New York are big question marks since I'm not sure how rural areas, suburbs, and cities vote in the northeast. Would the high population areas where Gore improved be considered primarily urban or suburban?
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #651 on: October 06, 2020, 10:17:38 PM »


Thank you for the wonderful questions!

1. Democratic strength in the Dakotas remains based in the east, though it has steadily expanded. Eastern Idaho is strong for Republicans, but their strength with Mormons is falling with each cycle. Utah is trending D.

2. In New York and Pennsylvania eh? I may make county maps. In Pennsylvania the Scranton and Pittsburg areas are very strong for the Democrats, though Al Gore did better than Glenn in the Philadelphia suburbs in 1988. Philadelphia is a Republican stronghold by now. New York City has been steadily trending R. The high population areas Gore is improving in are primarily suburban, generally due to his right-Third Way economics and foreign policy wins.
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President Biden Democrat
mrappaport1220
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« Reply #652 on: October 06, 2020, 10:54:24 PM »

Loving this timeline! 1992 Election is two good choices. Both Cuomo and Gore are good choices and would have made good presidents in our timeline! Looking forward to events up to present day!!!
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Elcaspar
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« Reply #653 on: December 15, 2020, 05:23:33 PM »

Bump. Also any idea on when we might see this amazing TL updated again?
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #654 on: December 15, 2020, 09:09:13 PM »

The praise is really something friends. I am much busier than I was in March, April, and May but a revival is considered.
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