An Effective Consensus

[We Live in Black and White]

Once more, Bush will do.

[Elcaspar]

Bush it is.

[KaiserDave]

Polling Map (Gallup)


George Bush/Lin Holton: 46.4%/303
John Glenn/James Carter: 45.2%/235
Ed Clark/David Koch: 5.6%/0

Gallup Poll: President Glenn Job Approval August 1980



Wikimedia Commons

Approve: 57%
Disapprove: 39%

[KaiserDave]

1980 Presidential Debate on ABC News





Wikimedia Commons

Welcome to ABC News and tonight we have the honor of hosting the 1980 presidential debate, I'm Howard K. Smith and I'll be moderating this debate. In a moment we will welcome the candidates, National Security Advisor George Herbet Walker Bush and President John Herschel Glenn. There were be no clapping, except at the end, and right now. We now welcome President Glenn, and Advisor Bush...

(Candidates enter to applause)


President Glenn, you've made the decision to enact a grain embargo on the USSR. Many feel this decision was made in haste, or ignorant of the issues facing American farmers. Can you explain this choice?

John Glenn: Howard we are at a critical point in our country's history. The Soviet Union has never been more aggressive, they're never been more of a threat to our security since the Cuban Missile Crisis. They're invading Afghanistan to support communism there, they're developing new long range missiles that can strike anywhere in the United States at any moment, and they're more determined than ever to export their communist ideology across the world. In Latin America, in South America, in Africa with the Ethiopians. We have to be completely vigilant, completely on guard, that's why I've entirely committed to our national defense, I've updated our missile technology, I've discarded these bad treaties that the Soviets continue to disregard, I've invested in our space technology, and in our next generations. As for the grain embargo we have to stop feeding an unsustainable Soviet system that profits off of misery, I believe we all may have to make sacrifices for the cause of anti communist vigilance.

Mr. Bush?

George Bush: I think the Presidents callous disregard for the farmers of this country is very concerning. We're gonna start loosing farms by the week with this policy, we're gonna lose farms, and we're gonna lose business. The economy is already in a weak position, inflation has risen in the last quarter, and what the President has done is made it so that when we do face an economic crisis it will be our farmers who face the worst of it. I would end this embargo and I would look for diplomatic solutions that can push back communist aggression but don't put our hard working farmers on the chopping block.

John Glenn: Nobody wants to put our farmers at risk, in fact my administration has done more for farmers than ever before, it's simple, we got out of their way, we tore up onerous regulations and help farmers get goods to market.

George Bush: Yet you've locked away one of the biggest markets. That's not capitalism Mr. President that's politics.

John Glenn: Nobody thinks the grain embargo is easy, but if we chose four more years, I reassure all our farmers that we're going to make things better, with balanced budgets, low taxes and spending, I believe our farmers will achieve new prosperity.

George Bush: I don't quite think that's consistent with the reality our farmers are facing.


Mr. Bush, do you believe that you can keep the budget balanced?

George Bush: Well Howard I think we can keep the budget balanced, but I do believe we have to put money in the hands of Americans to make money. I believe the austerity that the President has supported isn't worth it, sure we're adding to a surplus, but I believe this is really a weak economy, and the warning signs are there. Instead of depriving our public services the funds they need, instead of cutting off states and families, I'd invest in our families, and in the economy. I'd put more money into the safety net, I'd invest in public infrastructure, and I'd put more money into middle class families with new tax credits. I think the President's scaremongering about temporary deficits isn't accurate, our greatest prosperity was with George Romney who ran a deficit, but that deficit was shrinking by 1976, and our economy grew the whole time. The President is taking us down the wrong path economics wise, not to mention that gas prices keep increasing and the White House doesn't have an action plan. I will dare to act to keep our economy strong. 

John Glenn: Well, I could barely understand what the National Security Advisor was trying to say but I have a much simpler plan. Cut taxes for hard working families, and cut overall spending. That's how we get sound budgets and a strong economy. I'm not afraid to cut programs that don't work, and I'll relocate it to education, science, the future, and of course more money in the hands of taxpayers. Mr. Bush thinks government is the solution, but I think the economy works best when government doesn't run the whole show, and people take the lead.

George Bush: It's not a plan, you're watching while Rome burns Mr. President.

John Glenn: C'mon George you know that's not what's happening, our plan is the people.

George Bush: What does that mean?

John Glenn: I'm not surprised you don't get it, you don't get the American people George.

George Bush: Mr. President you're fiddling while gas prices continue to go up, inflation is ticking upwards, unemployment will be next, we have to act and we have to do it soon. I ask Americans to trust me to dedicate entirely to securing access to cheap oil, invest in our economy, and keep America strong. We deserve a President who can step forward to create a kinder, better nation for all of us, and not one who steps back.



President Glenn, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has threatened to occupy the Iranian province of Khuzestan, meanwhile Iran is in turmoil, putting an American ally and oil resources at risk, what will you you do to change course?

John Glenn: Well Howard, I think we need to stick to our guns. When America isn't afraid to act, we succeed, I'm currently in negotiations with Iranian leaders to install a stable regime there, and to establish regional security, in that spirit I acted fast last year when I deployed marine units to defend our embassy, and the oil wells, they remain there and they will remain there until stability is restored. I can assure the American people that Iran will be stable and its territory intact and that gas prices will soon go down.

And Khuzestan Mr. President?

John Glenn: I am confident that Khuzestan will not be occupied, and we will undergo efforts to keep it that way.

George Bush: I think the President has described the situation horrendously, this is a government that has slowly fallen apart over the course of now over a year, slowly degenerating and losing authority and we've been content to watch. I would have been much more aggressive in reinforcing the governing authority, I never would have allowed Hussein to be so confident to openly declare he could occupy sovereign Iran, and I would have put together an international coalition with our European partners to provide diplomatic and economic support for the government, who if we have provided that pressure could have undertaken necessary reforms two years ago, and we might have avoided this mess entirely. The President has not done enough, and we're in a situation where the Iraqis are in a position to gobble up land.

John Glenn: Khuzestan will not be occupied. I can tell you that.

George Bush: We'll see how those words hold up.


Post Debate Poll: Who performed better?
John Glenn: 54%
George Bush: 42%
Neither: 4%

[S019]

Big mistake by Bush to not discuss foreign policy more on the grain embargo question. His performance in the debate was disastrous and the polls seem to agree.

[KaiserDave]

Polling Map (Gallup)


John Glenn/James Carter: 46.5%/274
George Bush/Lin Holton: 45.1%/264
Ed Clark/David Koch: 5.0%/0

[OSR stands with Israel]

Glenn 1980 Kemp 1984

[😥]

Glenn won the debate, but I would support Bush

[KaiserDave]

Campaign 1980

Wikimedia Commons


Republicans were absolutely distraught coming out of the Presidential debates. Bush's poll numbers were falling after an early lead, and the National Security Advisor's weak debate performances had pulled many undecided voters over to Glenn. The President's rose garden campaign continued to bear fruit as seemingly everyone agreed that he was extremely presidential, and like George Romney in 1968 just looked like a President, a like a man they could trust with high authority. Republicans thought this election could be a slam dunk, the plains states, which had done Birch Bayh were infuriated by the President's grain embargo, and George Bush was certainly more palatable to them than Birch Bayh. Yet while Republicans were doing marginally better there, they were falling behind badly in the midwest. That traditional Republican bastion since Abraham Lincoln himself was swinging back. Just as it had with George Wallace in 1964. Now it should be noted that this Democratic coalition was somewhat different, in 1964 the Democrats were still holding on to sizable chunk of the black vote, not so anymore, and in 1964 many moderate suburbanites rejected Wallace populism. In 1980 the suburbanites like Glenn and the black vote was a firm Republican constituency. But nonetheless Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Indiana were looking good for Glenn.

A Vice Presidential debate was not able to be arranged and was canceled at the last minute, many Republicans accused the Glenn/Carter campaign of purposely scuttling it after their presidential debate win. Nevertheless both Holton and Carter took active roles in the campaign, Holton spent a lot of time in Virginia and Pennsylvania, while Carter fought tooth and nail for Florida. Holton wasn't afraid to go on the attack, saying Carter was "part of a Southern democratic machine that has given us George Wallace and Wilbur Mills." Carter fired back saying, "Republicans keep trying the same strategy year after year saying that any Democrat is George Wallace, I think people are tired of it."

The Glenn strategy largely boiled down to winning over the midwest and making a bid for California. California hadn't voted for a Democrat since Harry Truman, but it was very close in 1960, 1964, and 1976. Glenn knew some of the plains states weren't coming back, and focused on high prize states in the midwest, and a victory in California that would turn the tables completely. The Glenn team got an edge in California when former Governor Reagan said to local press that, "John Glenn has done a solid job as President, he's been tough on the Soviets, more tough than Romney I'd say." It wasn't an endorsement, but it sent a signal to California Conservatives, some of whom were considering the libertarian campaign. Glenn made campaign stops, but also stuck to the Rose Garden campaign which kept him in the headlines and made him look like a leader.

The Bush campaign focused on keeping the midwest in line and winning Florida, as well as making sure the plains revolt over the grain embargo persisted. Bush wasn't much of an inspiring speaker, but he knew many people who were. Bush and Bayh got back together and toured Indiana and Illinois together, and Bush and Holton drew crowds in Florida, Missouri, and Iowa. Edward Brooke drew big crowds of black voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and when President Romney hit the trail in October, he drew big crowds too. The Republican strategy wasn't all that complicated, they brought out the big guns.

All the while foreign policy hung over the election. The economy was overall alright, but the oil price continued to rise as Iran became more unstable. The Shah was likely to abdicate many experts thought to avoid Civil War, and a transitional authority was already being organized. But still, despite the fact that as Glenn predicted Khuzestan had not been occupied, the situation hung over the remaining weeks of the election. At any time, everything could change.

[KaiserDave]

Polling Map (Gallup)


John Glenn/James Carter: 46.3%/247
George Bush/Lin Holton: 45.5%/291
Ed Clark/David Koch: 5.3%/0

[KaiserDave]

Results are next (unless maybe we get a surprise), cast your ballots!

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

I'm a George Gal.

[We Live in Black and White]

Still in with Bush, his being a lackluster candidate be damned.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Bush, I suppose.

[KaiserDave]

Apathy amongst liberals.......

Interesting.....

[Elcaspar]

Yeah i am with the apathy train on this one. I am still with Bush however.

[KaiserDave]

Campaign 1980: Election Night

George Bush/Lin Holton: 49.7%/158
John Glenn/Jimmy Carter: 44.4%/146

Congressman Jack Kemp leaned back at his upstate New York home's recliner. His reelection was assured, in fact he had already received a call from his campaign manager telling him that he'd won. Now he had to watch the results. You can bet he was cheering for Bush. First as a Republican, but then as an economics man. Just look at the way Democrats in Congress drooled over balanced budgets and austerity, but without focusing on the real issue of growth, while doing little to address the big issues of poverty. At least Robert Kennedy was trying to do something about poverty, even if he got it all wrong. Few Republicans had come over to Kemp's side that Negative Income Taxes and tax reductions were a better solution to poverty than more government, but Jack was confident he could get more around to it. If Bush lost tonight maybe 1984 was on the horizon for Jack. Jack looked back to the TV, things didn't look great for Bush. Sure he was ahead, but just look at the map. Big gaping holes in the midwest, the plains states were just starting to count ballots and it looked like Glenn might over perform, and Florida looked like it would go to the Democrats. Well, there was still California, and Pennsylvania. If Bush could just get his act together....well it was too late for campaigning. Jack listened as the TV anchors speculating on what looked like an inevitable conservative campaign of Jesse Helms in 1984. God that loon....would make for an interesting matchup however.

[KaiserDave]

Campaign 1980: Election Night

George Bush/Lin Holton: 47.9%/240
John Glenn/Jimmy Carter: 46.9%/213

Barack Hussein Obama laid back on his dorm's common area couch as the results came in. The crowd at Occidental was fairly pro Bush, but like many liberals was not enthused by his moderate policies and meticulous focus on defense and foreign policy. Hell he wasn't even able to capitalize on that meticulous focus in the debates. But Barack had to admit, Bush was doing better than people expected. He'd already won a close contest Pennsylvania, secured Illinois, and won back most of the plains states he lost in 1976. But then again Virginia and Florida, Indiana, and Ohio too were all in Glenn's column. However, as Barack's mind went back to the other side, ultimately the race liked quite good for Bush. All he needed was California, where Barack had already voted for Bush. Barack stretched forward and put down his cigarette as the chatter in the room increased, the TV was showing results in California where Bush's lead of Glenn had come down to a few thousand votes. Barack did the math in his head as Roger Mudd showed the electoral map. Even if Bush lost California he could take a smattering of outstanding plains states like South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Alaska and take the race and leave the Democrats stunned. But that was harder, if only he could just win California. That shouldn't be too hard, right?

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

My guess: Bush loses California but wins enough elsewhere to get just over the finish line, defeats Helms/Cheney and an indy Dem ticket in 1984.
(And if this comes true, Secretary of State Birch Bayh 1988)

[Roll Roons]

What's going on with the employee of a small construction firm in Vermont?

[KaiserDave]

What's going on with the employee of a small construction firm in Vermont?

You're literally a King

This employee is currently advancing well in the business world of the Vermont, DuBois construction is doing well.

[President Biden Democrat]

This is so interesting! My guess is that Bush will pull off a victory by either winning in California or other states. Glenn definitely could pull off a victory though.

[KaiserDave]

Election Results

John H. Glenn/James E. Carter: 288-46.62% ✓
George H.W. Bush/Abner L. Holton: 250-46.19%

Good evening I'm Walter Cronkite and it's November 5th on CBS Evening News and the 1980 Presidential election has come to its conclusion. In a very close race, President Glenn has been re-elected President, becoming the first Democrat to be reelected President since Franklin Roosevelt. The deciding state, California. The state's 45 electoral votes proved critical to the President's reelection, he carried the state by half a percentage point, around 50,000 votes. National Security Advisor Bush has conceded the race this morning, he congratulated the President on his reelection, and thanked his family and loyal supporters. The President declared victory with the Vice President and their families late last night, and international congratulations are coming in. In Congress, the Republicans have maintained their house majority and the Democrats their Senate majority, the status quo since 1968. Robert Byrd's Senate Democrats have a slightly lessened majority, losing _ seats, while the Republicans in the House, soon to likely elect former presidential candidate John B. Anderson as Speaker, have also maintained their majority though lessened.

The questions are asked, how did the President win? Many point at his improved performance in the midwest, picking of Indiana and Wisconsin. Many believe his Rose Garden campaign and development of an image of a competent leader, as well as debate victories have given him the edge, others say that the Bush campaign failed to turn out core supporters. In the plains states National Security Advisor Bush certainly improved on 1976 for Republicans, with many farmers angry at the grain embargo, but losing California was a major loss he could not make up. That loss, many say, due to a failure to turn on core supporters. And that's way it is, I'm Walter Cronkite with CBS Evening News for my last election coverage on November 5th, 1980.



Senate
Democrats: 54 (-3)
Republicans: 46 (+3)

Flips: South Dakota (D to R), North Dakota (D to R), Alaska (D to R), Florida (D to R), Connecticut (R to D)

House of Representatives
Republicans: 225 (-16)
Democrats: 210 (+16)

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

My guess: Bush loses California but wins enough elsewhere to get just over the finish line, defeats Helms/Cheney and an indy Dem ticket in 1984.
(And if this comes true, Secretary of State Birch Bayh 1988)

I am not a clown. I am the entire circus. My current prediction for '84 is a comfortable Carter win, assuming the economy is roughly the same as OTL.

[KaiserDave]

Wikimedia Commons
Official Broadcast of the Arab Republic of Iraq


Wikimedia Commons

بينما أتكلم جنود ومحاربي الجيش العراقي وجيش الشعب العراقي يعبرون الحدود إلى محافظة العراق الشرعية وهي خوزستان. إن القوات على الأرض وفي الجو تتحرك دون معارضة لتأمين تحرير إخواننا وأخواتنا من فساد الشاه الإيرانيين المستبدين والأجانب. لقد أمنت حيادية القوى الأجنبية ، التي ستثبت أنها عاجزة في مواجهة جيوشنا ، والطغاة الإيرانيين الذين سيثبتون أنهم عاجزون في مواجهة احتياطياتنا التي لا نهاية لها من الرجال والمعدات ، وعدم كفاءتهم وانحطاطهم. في غضون أسبوع ، ستصبح خوزستان حصنًا لقواتنا ، وفي الواقع خلال العام سنكون خوزستان كمحافظة متكاملة لجمهورية العراق العربية.


As I speak the soldiers and warriors of the Iraqi Army and the Army of Iraqi peoples is crossing the frontier into the rightful province of Iraq that is Khuzestan. Forces on the ground and in the air are moving without opposition to secure the liberation of our brothers and sisters from the corruption of the despotic and foreign Iranian Shahs. I have secured the neutrality of foreign powers, who will prove powerless in the face of our armies, and the Iranian tyrants who will prove powerless in the face of our endless reserves of men and equipment, and their own incompetence and decadence. Within the week Khuzestan shall become a fortress for our forces, and indeed within the year we will have enshrined Khuzestan as an integral province of the Arab Republic of Iraq.


Indeed Saddam was correct that his forces faced little military opposition, Iran in disarray had no organized defense prepared and Iraq's impressively sized military seized the border province with minimal casualties, Iraq's air power soon ruled the skies as the Iraqi military began plundering and securing Khuzestan. Iraq finally had access to a deep water port, and had a leg up on neighboring Iran.

When the news reached Iran there was chaos, havoc, and nationalist fervor. The Shahdom, viewed as incompetent in the service of the national cause became universally hated overnight, perhaps an older more experienced Shah could have led but the 20 year old Reza Pahlavi II was not the man, he fled the country, flying to Paris the day after the province fell. Revolutionaries poured into the street, many demanding an Islamic Republic, others a socialist state, and others a democratic republic. The Army were the first to seize control, a military council declared martial law and declared that all efforts would be undertaken to secure the nation from Iraqi aggression. The nation was whipped into a nationalist frenzy, all revolutionary factions united against the "Neo-Umayyad" aggressors. Across the country people marched in the streets burning the Iraqi flag and Saddam Hussein in effigy, while the state finally was able to organize itself, all of Iraq and Iran brewed for a fight.

In the United States the President was transitioning into his second term was hit was a massive blow, as he had promised that there would be no territorial violations or war. Stocks fell, politicians panicked, and US troops and oil assets were now at risk.