2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1222197491023695873

Michelle Steele Raises 520k, has $1.3 million in cash on hand for #CA48

https://www.michellesteelca.com/2019/07/ca-48-news-orange-county-supervisor-michelle-steel-raises-over-535000-in-first-fundraising-quarter/

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

New PA poll from F&M has GCB at D+7. Lots of undecideds, but I believe it was about +10 in 2018.

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/562535870732261549-f-m-poll-release-january-2020.pdf

Yep. No seat in PA will flip. Fitzpatrick is likeliest to lose though. I can see Biden dragging a no-name over the finish line.

[Roll Roons]

New PA poll from F&M has GCB at D+7. Lots of undecideds, but I believe it was about +10 in 2018.

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/562535870732261549-f-m-poll-release-january-2020.pdf

Yep. No seat in PA will flip. Fitzpatrick is likeliest to lose though. I can see Biden dragging a no-name over the finish line.

Just like Wolf and Casey in 2018. Oh wait....

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

New PA poll from F&M has GCB at D+7. Lots of undecideds, but I believe it was about +10 in 2018.

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/562535870732261549-f-m-poll-release-january-2020.pdf

Yep. No seat in PA will flip. Fitzpatrick is likeliest to lose though. I can see Biden dragging a no-name over the finish line.

Just like Wolf and Casey in 2018. Oh wait....

Wallace was a uniquely weak candidate and even he almost won.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Michael McCaul from TX-10:

Receipts - $377,910
Expenses - $213,465
Cash on hand - $984,384

[wbrocks67]

Lucy McBath (GA-06) raised $1 MILLION in 4th Q

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-6th-lucy-mcbath-report-more-than-campaign-account/g7yTfDqJtgMwSEQoogRWMJ/

[Skill and Chance]

GCB consistently looking less Dem than 2018 but strong enough for them to hold the House without much drama.   

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lucy McBath (GA-06) raised $1 MILLION in 4th Q

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-6th-lucy-mcbath-report-more-than-campaign-account/g7yTfDqJtgMwSEQoogRWMJ/

I will be quite surprised if McBath loses.  From what I've heard on the ground (I work in GA-06, although I don't live there) she's pretty well thought of, including by a lot of Republicans.

[libertpaulian]

GCB consistently looking less Dem than 2018 but strong enough for them to hold the House without much drama.   

I wonder what the GCB polling looked like just prior to Election Day.

[ꙮ]

NY-22 Q4 Fundraising totals:

Anthony Brindisi (D) - $909,993 raised. $1,850,655 cash on hand

Claudia Tenney (R) - $325,402 raised. $287,916 cash on hand.
Steve Cornwell (R) - Dropped out, now running for family court judge.
George Phillips (R) - $27,237 raised. $57,132 cash on hand.
Frank Sager (R) - $0 raised. $0 cash on hand. Wayne Messam is jealous of these numbers.

[smoltchanov]

NY-22 Q4 Fundraising totals:

Anthony Brindisi (D) - $905,000 raised. $1,800,000 cash on hand

Claudia Tenney (R) - $300,000 raised. $286,000 cash on hand.
Steve Cornwell (R) - Dropped out, now running for family court judge.
George Phillips (R) - Unable to find, but he is irrelevant.
Frank Sager (R) - Same as above.

The best possible situation for Brindisi. Against anyone, but Tenney, he would probably be an underdog...

[Frenchrepublican]

NY-22 Q4 Fundraising totals:

Anthony Brindisi (D) - $905,000 raised. $1,800,000 cash on hand

Claudia Tenney (R) - $300,000 raised. $286,000 cash on hand.
Steve Cornwell (R) - Dropped out, now running for family court judge.
George Phillips (R) - Unable to find, but he is irrelevant.
Frank Sager (R) - Same as above.

Tenney is a real nightmare for House republicans. Because of her democrats who should have absolutely no business holding this seat will have a very good chance to keep it despite Trump winning there by double digits, sad !

[GeorgiaModerate]

State Rep. Kevin Tanner (R-Dawsonville) is running for the GA-09 seat that Doug Collins is vacating to run for Senate.

https://www.dawsonnews.com/local/government/tanner-announces-congressional-bid/

[Gracile]

Here are the full Q4 fundraising numbers for incumbents targeted by the DCCC and NRCC:

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1223458974520893441

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1223652032025972737

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1223652032025972737

Might this be an indicator that Amash's chances at winning reelection are underrated? However, it's possible that most of that money comes from outside his district.

[wbrocks67]

NBC/WSJ poll out today has the GCB at D+6 (49-43)

[Frenchrepublican]

Crystal Ball rating changes
http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-republicans-house-chances-its-on-trump/

Most of these changes make sense except maybe MN-1, don’t see any reason to downgrade it to Lean R. Among the majors changes they’re moving NY-19 and UT-4 to Lean D from Tossup, at the same time they’re moving PA-1 from Tossup to Lean R.

[wbrocks67]

Crystal Ball rating changes
http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-republicans-house-chances-its-on-trump/

Most of these changes make sense except maybe MN-1, don’t see any reason to downgrade it to Lean R. Among the majors changes they’re moving NY-19 and UT-4 to Lean D from Tossup, at the same time they’re moving PA-1 from Tossup to Lean R.

I think it's early to rate PA-1 until we get a nominee and see what that nominee can do. Wachpress looks like she'll be it, and it depends if she can fundraise or not.

[Oryxslayer]

Crystal Ball rating changes
http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-republicans-house-chances-its-on-trump/

Most of these changes make sense except maybe MN-1, don’t see any reason to downgrade it to Lean R. Among the majors changes they’re moving NY-19 and UT-4 to Lean D from Tossup, at the same time they’re moving PA-1 from Tossup to Lean R.

Most of the major changes make sense since we have discussed within this thread the GOP and in some cases Democratic recruiting failures in these districts. TX-07 being downgraded to Lean Dem is the one that I haven't heard much about. Sabato cites a 'good' GOP recruit, though like everything, we shall see if such expectations are proven correct in the fall.

[Gracile]

Crystal Ball rating changes
http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-republicans-house-chances-its-on-trump/

Most of these changes make sense except maybe MN-1, don’t see any reason to downgrade it to Lean R. Among the majors changes they’re moving NY-19 and UT-4 to Lean D from Tossup, at the same time they’re moving PA-1 from Tossup to Lean R.

All of the Likely R seats moved to Safe R were way overdue.

These rating changes are pretty good on the whole. My only gripes are that PA-01 at Lean R seems a bit premature (though Fitzpatrick has a slight advantage at the moment), and MN-01 and TX-07 did not deserve to be downgraded because, in the end, I don't think the opposing party will make either of those seats competitive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Aug and Oct, we will see if GOP chances go up with Trump and his approvals.  Whomever party wins in Nov, they will get the Trifecta

[Frenchrepublican]

Crystal Ball rating changes
http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-republicans-house-chances-its-on-trump/

Most of these changes make sense except maybe MN-1, don’t see any reason to downgrade it to Lean R. Among the majors changes they’re moving NY-19 and UT-4 to Lean D from Tossup, at the same time they’re moving PA-1 from Tossup to Lean R.

All of the Likely R seats moved to Safe R were way overdue.

These rating changes are pretty good on the whole. My only gripes are that PA-01 at Lean R seems a bit premature (though Fitzpatrick has a slight advantage at the moment), and MN-01 and TX-07 did not deserve to be downgraded because, in the end, I don't think the opposing party will make either of those seats competitive.

Totally agree with you on this. OH-14, PA-16, IL-12, MI-7 and the few other Trumpist districts are safe R and it was a bit surprising that they still listed them as competitive, these seats have moved sharply to the right since the beginning of the decade and even during the midterms democrats failed to make them particulary close.

[Frenchrepublican]

Crystal Ball rating changes
http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-republicans-house-chances-its-on-trump/

Most of these changes make sense except maybe MN-1, don’t see any reason to downgrade it to Lean R. Among the majors changes they’re moving NY-19 and UT-4 to Lean D from Tossup, at the same time they’re moving PA-1 from Tossup to Lean R.

Most of the major changes make sense since we have discussed within this thread the GOP and in some cases Democratic recruiting failures in these districts. TX-07 being downgraded to Lean Dem is the one that I haven't heard much about. Sabato cites a 'good' GOP recruit, though like everything, we shall see if such expectations are proven correct in the fall.

In TX-7 republicans have a very good candidate (Wesley Hunt) who is raising large amounts of cash, he has also an interesting profile which could help him with the ''GHWB republicans'' crowd who despiece Trump but who could maybe still be open to voting for a more establishment republican, now I agree with you, with Trump at the top of the ballot it will be hard for Hunt to prevail and thus democrats remains favoured to hold this seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

Aug and Oct, we will see if GOP chances go up with Trump and his approvals.  Whomever party wins in Nov, they will get the Trifecta

The GOP have like 10 realistic pickup opportunities in the House. It’s doubtful they win it.