Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Non Swing Voter]

Wow this thread has degenerated worse than the "rain in NOVA" thread.

[THG]

https://www.twitter.com/JuliaManch/status/1450600786195591171
McAuliffe is objectively running the worst campaign I’ve witnessed in years.

[Matty]

mcauliffe, imo, is doing a disservice to a gubernatorial campaign. I have never in my life seen a candidate make the entire campaign about a former president. ever.

Corzine didn't do it in NJ, the dems didn't do it in va in 2009, etc

[Non Swing Voter]

Wow this thread has degenerated worse than the "rain in NOVA" thread.

[Politics Fan]

mcauliffe, imo, is doing a disservice to a gubernatorial campaign. I have never in my life seen a candidate make the entire campaign about a former president. ever.

Corzine didn't do it in NJ, the dems didn't do it in va in 2009, etc

Newsom quite successfully used Trump and Covid to his advantage why shouldn’t TMAC do the same.

[Matty]

mcauliffe, imo, is doing a disservice to a gubernatorial campaign. I have never in my life seen a candidate make the entire campaign about a former president. ever.

Corzine didn't do it in NJ, the dems didn't do it in va in 2009, etc

Newsom quite successfully used Trump and Covid to his advantage why shouldn’t TMAC do the same.

I am fine with mcauliffe using covid policy in the campaign.

What I am NOT ok with is a person running for governor avoiding talking about any issue specific to his state: education, job policy, spending, taxes, etc, instead opting for vague references to a former president who has absolutely zero bearing on state level policymaking.

It just rubs me the wrong way, that's all. I don't think it is intellectual or interesting.

Youngkin seems to be running a more issues-based campaign.

I do understand why mcaualiffe is doing what he is doing, though: democrats are stalled in DC, and biden's ratings in va are mediocre at  best.

It's going to be insufferable and, frankly, lazy, to see a party go around the country next year screaming "TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP, WHATBOUT TRUMP, NO NO DON'T ASK THAT, ASK ABOUT DRUMPF".

reminds me of GOP and "socialism".

[Politics Fan]

mcauliffe, imo, is doing a disservice to a gubernatorial campaign. I have never in my life seen a candidate make the entire campaign about a former president. ever.

Corzine didn't do it in NJ, the dems didn't do it in va in 2009, etc

Newsom quite successfully used Trump and Covid to his advantage why shouldn’t TMAC do the same.

I am fine with mcauliffe using covid policy in the campaign.

What I am NOT ok with is a person running for governor avoiding talking about any issue specific to his state: education, job policy, spending, taxes, etc, instead opting for vague references to a former president who has absolutely zero bearing on state level policymaking.

It just rubs me the wrong way, that's all. I don't think it is intellectual or interesting.

Youngkin seems to be running a more issues-based campaign.

I do understand why mcaualiffe is doing what he is doing, though: democrats are stalled in DC, and biden's ratings in va are mediocre at  best.

It's going to be insufferable and, frankly, lazy, to see a party go around the country next year screaming "TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP, WHATBOUT TRUMP, NO NO DON'T ASK THAT, ASK ABOUT DRUMPF".

reminds me of GOP and "socialism".

Like I agree with you that it is lazy and unhealthy for all campaigns to follow this model. However it’s honestly like Republicans didn’t just do this under Obama by going Obama bad vote for us. Even under Trump it was all about Pelosi and the radical left.

So I don’t really blame democrats for using this strategy as it’s proven to be effective in states that lean in your parties direction.

[Matty]

mcauliffe, imo, is doing a disservice to a gubernatorial campaign. I have never in my life seen a candidate make the entire campaign about a former president. ever.

Corzine didn't do it in NJ, the dems didn't do it in va in 2009, etc

Newsom quite successfully used Trump and Covid to his advantage why shouldn’t TMAC do the same.

I am fine with mcauliffe using covid policy in the campaign.

What I am NOT ok with is a person running for governor avoiding talking about any issue specific to his state: education, job policy, spending, taxes, etc, instead opting for vague references to a former president who has absolutely zero bearing on state level policymaking.

It just rubs me the wrong way, that's all. I don't think it is intellectual or interesting.

Youngkin seems to be running a more issues-based campaign.

I do understand why mcaualiffe is doing what he is doing, though: democrats are stalled in DC, and biden's ratings in va are mediocre at  best.

It's going to be insufferable and, frankly, lazy, to see a party go around the country next year screaming "TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP, WHATBOUT TRUMP, NO NO DON'T ASK THAT, ASK ABOUT DRUMPF".

reminds me of GOP and "socialism".

Like I agree with you that it is lazy and unhealthy for all campaigns to follow this model. However it’s honestly like Republicans didn’t just do this under Obama by going Obama bad vote for us. Even under Trump it was all about Pelosi and the radical left.

So I don’t really blame democrats for using this strategy as it’s proven to be effective in states that lean in your parties direction.

I get it, but considering the polling in va suggests a tighter race than the state has been in recent years, maybe mcauliffe needs to start talking about the issues more.

trump is yesterday's news to many voters.

[ElectionsGuy]

Youngkin will ban masks and vaccines in the state.. our tools to stop this pandemic..

I am tired of hearing about covid covid covid covid covid covid covid covid covid all the time... my largest reason for support tmas is covid.

The idea of anyone banning masks or vaccines is completely made up. Nobody is doing that. Some are attempting to ban MANDATES, actual coercion, but I don't think Youngkin would even do that...

[roxas11]

mcauliffe, imo, is doing a disservice to a gubernatorial campaign. I have never in my life seen a candidate make the entire campaign about a former president. ever.

Corzine didn't do it in NJ, the dems didn't do it in va in 2009, etc

Newsom quite successfully used Trump and Covid to his advantage why shouldn’t TMAC do the same.

I am fine with mcauliffe using covid policy in the campaign.

What I am NOT ok with is a person running for governor avoiding talking about any issue specific to his state: education, job policy, spending, taxes, etc, instead opting for vague references to a former president who has absolutely zero bearing on state level policymaking.

It just rubs me the wrong way, that's all. I don't think it is intellectual or interesting.

Youngkin seems to be running a more issues-based campaign.

I do understand why mcaualiffe is doing what he is doing, though: democrats are stalled in DC, and biden's ratings in va are mediocre at  best.

It's going to be insufferable and, frankly, lazy, to see a party go around the country next year screaming "TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP, WHATBOUT TRUMP, NO NO DON'T ASK THAT, ASK ABOUT DRUMPF".

reminds me of GOP and "socialism".

Like I agree with you that it is lazy and unhealthy for all campaigns to follow this model. However it’s honestly like Republicans didn’t just do this under Obama by going Obama bad vote for us. Even under Trump it was all about Pelosi and the radical left.

So I don’t really blame democrats for using this strategy as it’s proven to be effective in states that lean in your parties direction.

I get it, but considering the polling in va suggests a tighter race than the state has been in recent years, maybe mcauliffe needs to start talking about the issues more.

trump is yesterday's news to many voters.

Had this been any other former president, I would agree with this, but in the case of Trump I'm not sure I buy this. Looking at the recent results in California Trump is clearly still on the minds of a lot of voters and there is no doubt that there is a fear of Trumpism especially if Republicans nominate more candidates like Larry elders

now having said that I do agree that in case of virginia glenn youngkin does not come off as a crazy trump nut and that is what is helping him to at least keep the race close.

On the other hand abortion is this issue that is hurting Glenn youngkin the most and that is a big reason why terry mcauliffe is still leading in most polls. Mcauliffe needs to be more focused on that and less on this idea of convincing voters that Glenn youngkin is the next like Larry elders

[wbrocks67]

mcauliffe, imo, is doing a disservice to a gubernatorial campaign. I have never in my life seen a candidate make the entire campaign about a former president. ever.

Corzine didn't do it in NJ, the dems didn't do it in va in 2009, etc

Newsom quite successfully used Trump and Covid to his advantage why shouldn’t TMAC do the same.

I am fine with mcauliffe using covid policy in the campaign.

What I am NOT ok with is a person running for governor avoiding talking about any issue specific to his state: education, job policy, spending, taxes, etc, instead opting for vague references to a former president who has absolutely zero bearing on state level policymaking.

It just rubs me the wrong way, that's all. I don't think it is intellectual or interesting.

Youngkin seems to be running a more issues-based campaign.

I do understand why mcaualiffe is doing what he is doing, though: democrats are stalled in DC, and biden's ratings in va are mediocre at  best.

It's going to be insufferable and, frankly, lazy, to see a party go around the country next year screaming "TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP, WHATBOUT TRUMP, NO NO DON'T ASK THAT, ASK ABOUT DRUMPF".

reminds me of GOP and "socialism".

Like I agree with you that it is lazy and unhealthy for all campaigns to follow this model. However it’s honestly like Republicans didn’t just do this under Obama by going Obama bad vote for us. Even under Trump it was all about Pelosi and the radical left.

So I don’t really blame democrats for using this strategy as it’s proven to be effective in states that lean in your parties direction.

I get it, but considering the polling in va suggests a tighter race than the state has been in recent years, maybe mcauliffe needs to start talking about the issues more.

trump is yesterday's news to many voters.

A) this is literally the same exact polling average as 2017. Northam had a final polling average of +3. T-Mac is at +3. So, no, it's not any tighter than it's been in years
B) T-Mac HAS been talking about the issues. Both have. Both are also going after other elements (T-Mac after Trumpkin, Youngkin after stupid issues like CRT), but both HAVE ALSO talked about main issues. Not sure where you're getting that T-Mac is exclusively talking about Trump and nothing else.

Not really sure how you get T-Mac running the most embarrasing gov campaign in recent memory in response to a tweet of... Youngkin's campaign rally and a few Dem *activists* with a Trump balloon outside.

[Calthrina950]

mcauliffe, imo, is doing a disservice to a gubernatorial campaign. I have never in my life seen a candidate make the entire campaign about a former president. ever.

Corzine didn't do it in NJ, the dems didn't do it in va in 2009, etc

Newsom quite successfully used Trump and Covid to his advantage why shouldn’t TMAC do the same.

I am fine with mcauliffe using covid policy in the campaign.

What I am NOT ok with is a person running for governor avoiding talking about any issue specific to his state: education, job policy, spending, taxes, etc, instead opting for vague references to a former president who has absolutely zero bearing on state level policymaking.

It just rubs me the wrong way, that's all. I don't think it is intellectual or interesting.

Youngkin seems to be running a more issues-based campaign.

I do understand why mcaualiffe is doing what he is doing, though: democrats are stalled in DC, and biden's ratings in va are mediocre at  best.

It's going to be insufferable and, frankly, lazy, to see a party go around the country next year screaming "TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP, WHATBOUT TRUMP, NO NO DON'T ASK THAT, ASK ABOUT DRUMPF".

reminds me of GOP and "socialism".

Like I agree with you that it is lazy and unhealthy for all campaigns to follow this model. However it’s honestly like Republicans didn’t just do this under Obama by going Obama bad vote for us. Even under Trump it was all about Pelosi and the radical left.

So I don’t really blame democrats for using this strategy as it’s proven to be effective in states that lean in your parties direction.

I get it, but considering the polling in va suggests a tighter race than the state has been in recent years, maybe mcauliffe needs to start talking about the issues more.

trump is yesterday's news to many voters.

A) this is literally the same exact polling average as 2017. Northam had a final polling average of +3. T-Mac is at +3. So, no, it's not any tighter than it's been in years
B) T-Mac HAS been talking about the issues. Both have. Both are also going after other elements (T-Mac after Trumpkin, Youngkin after stupid issues like CRT), but both HAVE ALSO talked about main issues. Not sure where you're getting that T-Mac is exclusively talking about Trump and nothing else.

Not really sure how you get T-Mac running the most embarrasing gov campaign in recent memory in response to a tweet of... Youngkin's campaign rally and a few Dem *activists* with a Trump balloon outside.

I don't think you saw my earlier question to you, so I'll repeat it again. What margin do you believe McAuliffe will win by?

[MT Treasurer]

I know there’s no point in arguing with him, but this...

A) this is literally the same exact polling average as 2017. Northam had a final polling average of +3. T-Mac is at +3. So, no, it's not any tighter than it's been in years

...has reached obsessive levels at this point. You keep comparing this to 2017, but there’s a slight difference here: Back then, we had a deeply unpopular Republican President and a depressed GOP base. Now, we have a (nationally) very unpopular Democratic President and a (presumably) far more energized GOP base.

It’s not that hard to figure out why polling may have 'underestimated' Republicans in 2009 and 2013 and why it 'underestimated' Democrats in 2017.

[wbrocks67]

I know there’s no point in arguing with him, but this...

A) this is literally the same exact polling average as 2017. Northam had a final polling average of +3. T-Mac is at +3. So, no, it's not any tighter than it's been in years

...has reached obsessive levels at this point. You keep comparing this to 2017, but there’s a slight difference here: Back then, we had a deeply unpopular Republican President and a depressed GOP base. Now, we have a (nationally) very unpopular Democratic President and a (presumably) far more energized GOP base.

It’s not that hard to figure out why polling may have 'underestimated' Republicans in 2009 and 2013 and why it 'underestimated' Democrats in 2017.

Except there's no proof that the GOP is energized, especially without Trump on the ticket. They could be, but it remains to be seen. And the 'underestimated' thing is a question mark too. As we've seen, and others have brought this up, when Trump is not on the ballot, Democrats tend to be underestimated. When he IS on the ballot, Dems are overestimated. So there are other factors at play here, especially with the new Dem college+ white coalition as well that aren't solely just based on who is in the white house.

[wbrocks67]

mcauliffe, imo, is doing a disservice to a gubernatorial campaign. I have never in my life seen a candidate make the entire campaign about a former president. ever.

Corzine didn't do it in NJ, the dems didn't do it in va in 2009, etc

Newsom quite successfully used Trump and Covid to his advantage why shouldn’t TMAC do the same.

I am fine with mcauliffe using covid policy in the campaign.

What I am NOT ok with is a person running for governor avoiding talking about any issue specific to his state: education, job policy, spending, taxes, etc, instead opting for vague references to a former president who has absolutely zero bearing on state level policymaking.

It just rubs me the wrong way, that's all. I don't think it is intellectual or interesting.

Youngkin seems to be running a more issues-based campaign.

I do understand why mcaualiffe is doing what he is doing, though: democrats are stalled in DC, and biden's ratings in va are mediocre at  best.

It's going to be insufferable and, frankly, lazy, to see a party go around the country next year screaming "TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP, WHATBOUT TRUMP, NO NO DON'T ASK THAT, ASK ABOUT DRUMPF".

reminds me of GOP and "socialism".

Like I agree with you that it is lazy and unhealthy for all campaigns to follow this model. However it’s honestly like Republicans didn’t just do this under Obama by going Obama bad vote for us. Even under Trump it was all about Pelosi and the radical left.

So I don’t really blame democrats for using this strategy as it’s proven to be effective in states that lean in your parties direction.

I get it, but considering the polling in va suggests a tighter race than the state has been in recent years, maybe mcauliffe needs to start talking about the issues more.

trump is yesterday's news to many voters.

A) this is literally the same exact polling average as 2017. Northam had a final polling average of +3. T-Mac is at +3. So, no, it's not any tighter than it's been in years
B) T-Mac HAS been talking about the issues. Both have. Both are also going after other elements (T-Mac after Trumpkin, Youngkin after stupid issues like CRT), but both HAVE ALSO talked about main issues. Not sure where you're getting that T-Mac is exclusively talking about Trump and nothing else.

Not really sure how you get T-Mac running the most embarrasing gov campaign in recent memory in response to a tweet of... Youngkin's campaign rally and a few Dem *activists* with a Trump balloon outside.

I don't think you saw my earlier question to you, so I'll repeat it again. What margin do you believe McAuliffe will win by?

I have no idea. My opinion is irrelevant. My gripe comes mostly with pundits and journalists who care more about a narrative than facts, evidence, and history.

[jamestroll]

If Tmac wins it will be between 1 and 3 points. Higher than that is almost impossible.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1450830169460117506

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I knew this forum was full of upper-class white college kids who don't have families but damn I was not expecting Terry's anti-parental involvement quote to be spun into a positive.

After all these months away it's good to see that some things haven't changed, like you being a disingenuous hack.

So, now that even McAuliffe is running ads defending himself and backtracking, will you admit you were wrong?

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1450830169460117506

What is a more typical PVI at this point? This sounds high.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1450830169460117506

What is a more typical PVI at this point? This sounds high.

We don't know what to make of this.  The rules were different in 2017, and there was a giant spike nationwide from 40% EV/VBM in 2016 to 69% EV/VBM in 2020 for obvious reasons.  Previously, it took from 2004 to 2016 to get from 20% to 40% There is every reason to expect that the 2024 EV will fall back below a a majority when COVID is fully behind us. 

[Dan the Roman]

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1450830169460117506

What is a more typical PVI at this point? This sounds high.

Everyone is rushing. Really you only get useful data when you have turnout + makeup. In effect, if in 10 days we are at 950K+ and and perhaps 40%+ of the final electorate, we can begin to get minimums for things like turnout by education/race. But it is really early now.

Anything more is speculative. There is some stuff there but it is mostly

1. Appalachian post 2009 Rs do not care. Turnout in VA-9 and rural white areas is abysmal. Even by historic standards. Zero sign these Rs are engaged.
2. African American turnout seems to be "ok". By that I mean not good, but better than one would expect so far, and not falling back to 2010 or 2014 levels.
3. Hispanics arent voting at all

4. This looks to be a suburban election. By that, I mean the only people who seem particularly engaged are suburban voters.

#4 probably explains both campaigns. It is less they know what is happening specifically with those voters, and more they seem to be the only voters who care.

Also, I think Youngkin may have made a serious campaign blunder but it isn't the one everyone on this board thinks. I actually believe Youngkin has fallen victim to the desire of his DC based staffers to be lazy and not travel outside their comfort zone. They are running an NOVA campaign not because of some grand strategy, but because they don't want to travel too far or hang out in Appalachia and they have decided to come up with analysis about CRT etc to justify why NOVA is the key area. The thing is I am not sure it is. By that I mean even if the huge outpouring of effort makes a slight difference there, if they run no operation whatsoever in VA-9 no one else will. Those aren't historically GOP machine areas and if Youngkin isn't, Trump isn't on the ballot, CRT isn't going on in their schools, why are they going to vote?

Youngkin seems to be spending his whole campaign budget and GOTV operation on trying to turn 36%-45% Trump areas 44%-53%. He is spending from what I can see zero time or effort on turning out 75%+ Trump areas.

[wbrocks67]

Huh. It appears that reporter was being completely disingenuous. This is a Sinclair-operated station though, which is not surprising.

https://twitter.com/Renzo_Olivari/status/1450823592200056839

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/RudyGiuliani/status/1450588352093294592

Yes. This is really the world we live in.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/RudyGiuliani/status/1450588352093294592
Yes. This is really the world we live in.

The entire 2021 Virginia cycle has been just embarrassing. I feel bad for people that are exposed to this.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1450830169460117506

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