2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Ferguson97]

The guy uses gender pronouns in his Twitter bio lol. He’s a walking caricature of everything Republicans accuse Democrats of.

I’d still vote for him, sure. Doesn’t mean I think he’ll win.

Hmm...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Here is a reason why FL is getting completetive it's a Listener Group poll no specific numbers but Crist beating DeSantis by 13

https://twitter.com/PollingBad2022/status/1555287974194999296?t=ZsIKyn6jXaxA7NAQVRD91Q&s=19

Everyone thought Rubio and DeSantis we're gonna win by +10, FL is an R 3 state

[wbrocks67]

538's GCB average has nudged up a tiny smidge again, to D 44.3 - R 44.1. I guess it's still +0.1 right now for rounding purposes

[2016]

Seeing wbrocks67 & Olowakandi crying on November 9th will definitly one of the biggest satisfactions for me since I registered here in November 2016

[wbrocks67]

Seeing wbrocks67 & Olowakandi crying on November 9th will definitly one of the biggest satisfactions for me since I registered here in November 2016

gurl why are you so obsessed with me

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why we don't have any WI polls on the Eve of a primary that is very weird

[philly09]

Rassmussen's GCB has narrowed from R+5 46-41 to R+3 46-43. And this is from July 29th.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot_aug05

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't believe in Rassy polls

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1557063720987140098

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov tracker ticks up to D+6 (44/38) from D+5 (44/39) last week.

[wbrocks67]

The Economist/YouGov tracker ticks up to D+6 (44/38) from D+5 (44/39) last week.

Conversely, Politico/Morning Consult ticks down a tad, to D+1 (44/43) this week. I believe it was D+3 or D+4 last week.

[Minnesota Mike]

The Economist/YouGov tracker ticks up to D+6 (44/38) from D+5 (44/39) last week.

Conversely, Politico/Morning Consult ticks down a tad, to D+1 (44/43) this week. I believe it was D+3 or D+4 last week.

Politico/Morning Consult was D+2 last week.

[wbrocks67]

The Economist/YouGov tracker ticks up to D+6 (44/38) from D+5 (44/39) last week.

Conversely, Politico/Morning Consult ticks down a tad, to D+1 (44/43) this week. I believe it was D+3 or D+4 last week.

Politico/Morning Consult was D+2 last week.

Ah, you're right. Must be thinking about a few weeks ago. Then likely just a MoE move.

[philly09]

The Economist/YouGov tracker ticks up to D+6 (44/38) from D+5 (44/39) last week.

Conversely, Politico/Morning Consult ticks down a tad, to D+1 (44/43) this week. I believe it was D+3 or D+4 last week.

Politico/Morning Consult was D+2 last week.

Ah, you're right. Must be thinking about a few weeks ago. Then likely just a MoE move.

I noticed the number of "Don't Know/No Opinion" has gone back up in the MC poll, bringing the Democrats number down.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1557367832186441731

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1557458057390694405

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1557458057390694405

As gracile can attest, I'm not huge on this move. A cash deficit is impermanent. The fact is, Marlinga has a stronger brand than James here and that could make this race competitive. Lean R was a fair rating.

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1557458057390694405

As gracile can attest, I'm not huge on this move. A cash deficit is impermanent. The fact is, Marlinga has a stronger brand than James here and that could make this race competitive. Lean R was a fair rating.

James didn’t even win the district in 2020 Senate and Whitmer will probably win it this year. Cash only goes so far, we just need Marlinga to get some late funding.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1557458057390694405

As gracile can attest, I'm not huge on this move. A cash deficit is impermanent. The fact is, Marlinga has a stronger brand than James here and that could make this race competitive. Lean R was a fair rating.

James didn’t even win the district in 2020 Senate and Whitmer will probably win it this year. Cash only goes so far, we just need Marlinga to get some late funding.

But James is a strong canidate cause muh black republicnan

[wbrocks67]

Isn't James getting hit for being a carpetbagger in that district too? vs. someone who actually lives there?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Crystal Ball moves MN-01 from Safe R to Likely R.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-the-primaries-august-10-2022/

[Sir Mohamed]

Isn't James getting hit for being a carpetbagger in that district too? vs. someone who actually lives there?

The question is how much that will matter in the end. At some point, partisan leanings are just difficult to overcome.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Isn't James getting hit for being a carpetbagger in that district too? vs. someone who actually lives there?

The question is how much that will matter in the end. At some point, partisan leanings are just difficult to overcome.

True, but even a little bit might make the difference in a close race.  I'm thinking of the GA-06 special in 2017, when Jon Ossoff was relentlessly attacked for carpetbagging because he lived just outside the district boundary.  I have no doubt that it cost him some votes.  Probably not enough to be decisive (he lost 52-48), but who knows?

[Minnesota Mike]

Fox News GCB

41-41.

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2022/08/Fox_August-6-9-2022_National_Topline_August-11-Release.pdf

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Fox News GCB

41-41.

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2022/08/Fox_August-6-9-2022_National_Topline_August-11-Release.pdf

Their last poll had Republicans up 3.

Democrats in congress have a -19 approval rating (last poll was -20) and the Republicans are at -32 (last poll had them at -24).