Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[2016]

Since a lot of Atlas Liberals bragging about the GA Early Vote Totals I thought I compare the GA Senate Runoff Vote to the 2018 Governor Race when Kemp narrowly beat Abrams.

2018 Govenor Race
Total Vote: 3,939,409

Electorate

GENDER
Female  54 %
Male  46 %

AGE
18-24  9 %
30-39  15 %
40-49  19 %
50-64  29 %
65+  22 %

RACE
White  60 %
Black  30 %
Hispanic (Latino)  5 %
Asian  2 %
Other  3 %

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/georgia

2021 Senate Runoffs
Total Vote to date: 3,001,017

GENDER
Female -

Male -

AGE
18-24  7.3 %
25-34  10.1 %
35-44  12.8 %
45-55  17.7 %
56-65  21.3 %
66+  30.8

RACE
White  55.8 %
Black  30.8 %
Hispanic (Latino)  2.2 %
Asian  2.4 %
Other  8.5 %

Signs are pointing to a narrow Perdue & Loeffler Win. While the AA Vote is on par to match the 2018 GA Governor Race the Electorate seems a lot older on Tuesday compared to 2018 which should help Republicans unless older Voters have completely changed their Voting pattern.

[2016]

Is there a breakdown of total early voters by age and race ?

Yes, see https://www.georgiavotes.com/.

I’m going to be attacked for this but this is a good microcosm of Atlas. I was starting to let the thought that Dems had a prayer creep into my head based on the “Black voters are 35-40% of the votes so
far”. I click on that..the number is 30%. Not NEARLY enough.

It seems like if your opinion isn’t a sunshine outlook on Dems chances you get ripped to shreds. Yet almost every Dem Senate race the last 4 years (16,18,20) has seemed to be a major disappointment other than Alabama.

Not even the crazy people on PredictIt are buying your Doomer spin about the Dems chances.
kelly loeffler is currently dropping like a stone while Warnock is now at the highest numbers he has ever been since the start of the race. heck even Purdue Numbers have been on the decline


If the dems chances were truly as bad as you are making it out to be than there is chance in hell many of the fools on that site would be losing faith in the GOP like they currently are

If you look at the Age Breakdown of the Early Vote it looks pretty disastrous for the Democrats. The Youth Vote is waaaay down compared to Nov 3rd and also compared to the GA Governor Race in 2018. Almost 70 % of Voters will be 45+ on Tuesday.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Every poll has shown D's ahead 50 for Ossoff and WARNOCK and 45 for Perdue and Loeffler and Perdue just left the campaign trail due to Covid.

All the Ds have to keep it close this is GA not a blue wall state and they can win, we can't afford to let Mcconnell stay and he already obstructed the 2K Stimulus and he is only doing it and Ron Johnson only due to fact Biden is gonna be Prez

[2016]

Every poll has shown D's ahead 50 for Ossoff and WARNOCK and 45 for Perdue and Loeffler and Perdue just left the campaign trail due to Covid.

All the Ds have to keep it close this is GA not a blue wall state and they can win, we can't afford to let Mcconnell stay and he already obstructed the 2K Stimulus and he is only doing it and Ron Johnson only due to fact Biden is gonna be Prez

Every Poll showed Andrew Gillum beating Ron DeSantis in 2018 and Warnock is a far-worse Candidate then Gillum ever will be.

[roxas11]

Since a lot of Atlas Liberals bragging about the GA Early Vote Totals I thought I compare the GA Senate Runoff Vote to the 2018 Governor Race when Kemp narrowly beat Abrams.

2018 Govenor Race
Total Vote: 3,939,409

Electorate

GENDER
Female  54 %
Male  46 %

AGE
18-24  9 %
30-39  15 %
40-49  19 %
50-64  29 %
65+  22 %

RACE
White  60 %
Black  30 %
Hispanic (Latino)  5 %
Asian  2 %
Other  3 %

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/georgia

2021 Senate Runoffs
Total Vote to date: 3,001,017

GENDER
Female -

Male -

AGE
18-24  7.3 %
25-34  10.1 %
35-44  12.8 %
45-55  17.7 %
56-65  21.3 %
66+  30.8

RACE
White  55.8 %
Black  30.8 %
Hispanic (Latino)  2.2 %
Asian  2.4 %
Other  8.5 %

Signs are pointing to a narrow Perdue & Loeffler Win. While the AA Vote is on par to match the 2018 GA Governor Race the Electorate seems a lot older on Tuesday compared to 2018 which should help Republicans unless older Voters have completely changed their Voting pattern.

The biggest flaw with your comparison to the 2018 Govenor Race is that we simply do not know what election day turnout will looks like

you and many other seem to be buying that idea that GOP is going to have this insane turnout that we rarely see during runoffs. that may end up being the case but as a right now nobody knows what is going to happen.


if turnout turns out not to be as high as expected than the comparison with 2018 completely falls apart and that narrow Perdue & Loeffler Win you were predicting suddenly turns into A win For both the Dem candidates

[DrScholl]

Since a lot of Atlas Liberals bragging about the GA Early Vote Totals I thought I compare the GA Senate Runoff Vote to the 2018 Governor Race when Kemp narrowly beat Abrams.

2018 Govenor Race
Total Vote: 3,939,409

Electorate

GENDER
Female  54 %
Male  46 %

AGE
18-24  9 %
30-39  15 %
40-49  19 %
50-64  29 %
65+  22 %

RACE
White  60 %
Black  30 %
Hispanic (Latino)  5 %
Asian  2 %
Other  3 %

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/georgia

2021 Senate Runoffs
Total Vote to date: 3,001,017

GENDER
Female -

Male -

AGE
18-24  7.3 %
25-34  10.1 %
35-44  12.8 %
45-55  17.7 %
56-65  21.3 %
66+  30.8

RACE
White  55.8 %
Black  30.8 %
Hispanic (Latino)  2.2 %
Asian  2.4 %
Other  8.5 %

Signs are pointing to a narrow Perdue & Loeffler Win. While the AA Vote is on par to match the 2018 GA Governor Race the Electorate seems a lot older on Tuesday compared to 2018 which should help Republicans unless older Voters have completely changed their Voting pattern.

You're going to say Perdue and Loeffler are going to win no matter what.

[QAnonKelly]

Is there a breakdown of total early voters by age and race ?

Yes, see https://www.georgiavotes.com/.

I’m going to be attacked for this but this is a good microcosm of Atlas. I was starting to let the thought that Dems had a prayer creep into my head based on the “Black voters are 35-40% of the votes so
far”. I click on that..the number is 30%. Not NEARLY enough.

It seems like if your opinion isn’t a sunshine outlook on Dems chances you get ripped to shreds. Yet almost every Dem Senate race the last 4 years (16,18,20) has seemed to be a major disappointment other than Alabama.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Signs are pointing to a narrow Perdue & Loeffler Win. While the AA Vote is on par to match the 2018 GA Governor Race the Electorate seems a lot older on Tuesday compared to 2018 which should help Republicans unless older Voters have completely changed their Voting pattern.

We need race/age crosstabs. There's no way to tell which older voters are turning out.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Signs are pointing to a narrow Perdue & Loeffler Win. While the AA Vote is on par to match the 2018 GA Governor Race the Electorate seems a lot older on Tuesday compared to 2018 which should help Republicans unless older Voters have completely changed their Voting pattern.

We need race/age crosstabs. There's no way to tell which older voters are turning out.

This. Old doesn't equal GOP and young doesn't equal Democrat.

I would much rather a 68 year old Black woman turn out than a 22 year old white man who doesn't care about the election now that Trump isn't on the ballot but would absolutely vote Perdue/Loeffler if he did go vote.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

David Perdue will get such large margins out of cobb that even kim jong un will be calling him for advice

[tagimaucia]

Nate Cohn did a relevant thread re: age a few days ago

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1343983284728938496

[2016]

Nate Cohn with his Antics again.

We have the Age Breakdown prolly Nate: Almost 31 % are 66+!

[2016]

Signs are pointing to a narrow Perdue & Loeffler Win. While the AA Vote is on par to match the 2018 GA Governor Race the Electorate seems a lot older on Tuesday compared to 2018 which should help Republicans unless older Voters have completely changed their Voting pattern.

We need race/age crosstabs. There's no way to tell which older voters are turning out.

This. Old doesn't equal GOP and young doesn't equal Democrat.

I would much rather a 68 year old Black woman turn out than a 22 year old white man who doesn't care about the election now that Trump isn't on the ballot but would absolutely vote Perdue/Loeffler if he did go vote.

This is sooo wrong from you! Younger Voters trend to vote more Democratic. That is uniformly confirmed in all 50 States. Older Voters trend to be voting more Republican and are also of less colour and White.

Ossoff and Warnock still need between 30-32 % of the White Vote to win the Election and they ain't going to get that.

[It’s so Joever]

Tossup is a Tossup.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Nate Cohn with his Antics again.

We have the Age Breakdown prolly Nate: Almost 31 % are 66+!

Obviously, the electorate skewing older is a concern for Democrats, but equating age top partisanship is extremely difficult. In a state as racially polarized as GA, high black turnout is an objectively good thing for Democrats and high white turnout is objectively good for Republicans. With age though, it's not always as clean cut though the general correlation is there. If you look at where youth turnout is highest, it tends to be in metro Atlanta, where young people tend to break very heavily for Democrats. Many of the counties where it's at it's lowest are counties where Democrats have the least to lose from young voters not showing up, notably, rural black belt counties where there is less of a difference between how younger and older people vote. Same can be said for many rural white counties throughout the state, where youth turnout is about average.

So yes, the electorate skewing older is not a good sign for Democrats, though when you look at the data, it's not as much of a problem as it could be based upon where young people are and aren't showing up to vote. The early vote data is by-and-large a mixed bag for both sides, and most signs IMO point to this being a tossup race, though I do think you bring up a really good point about why the EV data may not be as great for Dems as some are making it out to be.

[GALeftist]

Signs are pointing to a narrow Perdue & Loeffler Win. While the AA Vote is on par to match the 2018 GA Governor Race the Electorate seems a lot older on Tuesday compared to 2018 which should help Republicans unless older Voters have completely changed their Voting pattern.

We need race/age crosstabs. There's no way to tell which older voters are turning out.

This. Old doesn't equal GOP and young doesn't equal Democrat.

I would much rather a 68 year old Black woman turn out than a 22 year old white man who doesn't care about the election now that Trump isn't on the ballot but would absolutely vote Perdue/Loeffler if he did go vote.

This is sooo wrong from you! Younger Voters trend to vote more Democratic. That is uniformly confirmed in all 50 States. Older Voters trend to be voting more Republican and are also of less colour and White.

Ossoff and Warnock still need between 30-32 % of the White Vote to win the Election and they ain't going to get that.

Georgia is different than the nation as a whole lol. The number of Georgian elderly black voters who vote Republican is double digits, I would bet.

[DrScholl]

Signs are pointing to a narrow Perdue & Loeffler Win. While the AA Vote is on par to match the 2018 GA Governor Race the Electorate seems a lot older on Tuesday compared to 2018 which should help Republicans unless older Voters have completely changed their Voting pattern.

We need race/age crosstabs. There's no way to tell which older voters are turning out.

This. Old doesn't equal GOP and young doesn't equal Democrat.

I would much rather a 68 year old Black woman turn out than a 22 year old white man who doesn't care about the election now that Trump isn't on the ballot but would absolutely vote Perdue/Loeffler if he did go vote.

This is sooo wrong from you! Younger Voters trend to vote more Democratic. That is uniformly confirmed in all 50 States. Older Voters trend to be voting more Republican and are also of less colour and White.

Ossoff and Warnock still need between 30-32 % of the White Vote to win the Election and they ain't going to get that.

Biden won this state. That is the key thing to remember before proclaiming the Ossoff and Warnock will lose. This is a base election for the most part.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Signs are pointing to a narrow Perdue & Loeffler Win. While the AA Vote is on par to match the 2018 GA Governor Race the Electorate seems a lot older on Tuesday compared to 2018 which should help Republicans unless older Voters have completely changed their Voting pattern.

We need race/age crosstabs. There's no way to tell which older voters are turning out.

This. Old doesn't equal GOP and young doesn't equal Democrat.

I would much rather a 68 year old Black woman turn out than a 22 year old white man

Wow, no need for the callout. Jeez

[Matty]

Something I am very interested in seeing:

will the two races have identical county maps?

[Gracile]

Something I am very interested in seeing:

will the two races have identical county maps?

I'd guess in terms of counties won the maps would be pretty identical, though the margins might be interesting to watch.

[The Houstonian]

Who here thinks Loeffler could outperform Perdue?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Who here thinks Loeffler could outperform Perdue?

Considering current polarization and the tribalism of these races, it's a very real possibility, but I still think it's more likely Perdue outperforms her slightly.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

https://twitter.com/EricLevitz/status/1344365669207465986

All it takes is Democrats saying we’ll pas another round of stimulus for an 18 point swing? Yeah I’m not buying that. Voters can’t be that stupid to just believe anything they say. Also it’s not just about stimulus it’s about all the very far left agenda items they can pass if they have the senate. I imagine that is in independents minds as well.
I don’t get why so many people are just solely focusing on stimulus checks when this congress will be in form for 2 years

Even if the Democrats gain the Senate, all it will take is one defection to stop anything radical, so unless you believe that the Democrats are a monolithic party, that isn't a reason to choose your vote.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, the age thing is interesting. Would be really interesting to see if part of the older electorate is older black voters showing up more, or if it's more older white voters

[QAnonKelly]

Who here thinks Loeffler could outperform Perdue?

I think Perdue very slightly outperforms her because she’s a meme-tier candidate. He’s not great either but he’s only in lol-tier.