Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[VBM]

Trump has just declared both Georgia Senate races 'illegal' and 'invalid'.

Wonder what Lin Wood will have to say about this

[SCNCmod]

Trump has just declared both Georgia Senate races 'illegal' and 'invalid'.

And yet he's still going there because he wants his supporters to turn out for this "illegal" and "invalid" election. Got it.

This is the conundrum many observers have been trying to make sense of since both things are true.

Which imo is explained by- Trump doesn't want to be the only loser in Georgia, nor does he want McConnel to keep Control.  But at the same time, Trump craves being in front of an adoring crowd of ppl who blindly support him & he craves the media coverage and attention this event will get on the eve of the runoff.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Trump has just declared both Georgia Senate races 'illegal' and 'invalid'.

And yet he's still going there because he wants his supporters to turn out for this "illegal" and "invalid" election. Got it.

This is the conundrum many observers have been trying to make sense of since both things are true.

Which imo is explained by- Trump doesn't want to be the only loser in Georgia, nor does he want McConnel to keep Control.  But at the same time, Trump craves being in front of an adoring crowd of ppl who blindly support him & he craves the media coverage and attention this event will get on the eve of the runoff.

Do you think he doesn’t want McConnel in control though? It probably isn’t as high on his priority list as it might be for a more generic R, but having Schumer in charge means Biden would actually get a chance to pass an agenda and potentially overshadow Trump

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Broke: Saying your vote doesn't matter
Woke: The President of the United States telling you your vote doesn't matter

[SCNCmod]

VBM accepted
Nov GE: 1.32M (53.0% white, 30.3% black) ---> +22.7 white
...
1/1: 928K (54.0% white, 31.9% black) —> +22.1 white


IN PERSON EARLY votes
Nov GE: 2.69M (58.2% white, 26.4% black) ---> +31.8 white
...
1/1: 2.07M (56.7% white, 30.3% black) —> +26.4 white

I'm using super wide General Assumptions here.... but, if you suppose that the mail-in net votes is a wash for Dems & Republicans... and just look at the gain in net votes for Dems via In-Person EV (strictly using the gain in Black/White margin.... since race is the most consistent determination of votes in Georgia), you get:

636K (Nov race breakdown, applied to 2.07M runoff votes)
526K (Runoff race breakdown, applied to 2.07M runoff votes)

which is a +90K Gain for Dems.  So if the Election Day numbers were exactly the same as November:

Ossoff would win by 2,000 votes (since he lost by 88K votes in Nov).
---------
To me, this is in the ballpark of the best case scenario for Republicans- one reason of which, is it allows for the same number of people turning out on Election Day (as that total goes down, R's net less votes on Election Day, assuming similar R/D turnout model).

This is one reason I hope Dems are making a serious effort to increase the Election Day turnout % of Dems in Rural Georgia Counties (mainly Southern Georgia) ... where voting on ED is easy and involves a very small time commitment.
...B/c in such a scenario- Election Day turnout among Dems in rural Georgia, would likely make the difference in who wins (based on if Dem turnout % increases or decreases).  

[SCNCmod]

Trump has just declared both Georgia Senate races 'illegal' and 'invalid'.

And yet he's still going there because he wants his supporters to turn out for this "illegal" and "invalid" election. Got it.

This is the conundrum many observers have been trying to make sense of since both things are true.

Which imo is explained by- Trump doesn't want to be the only loser in Georgia, nor does he want McConnel to keep Control.  But at the same time, Trump craves being in front of an adoring crowd of ppl who blindly support him & he craves the media coverage and attention this event will get on the eve of the runoff.

Do you think he doesn’t want McConnel in control though? It probably isn’t as high on his priority list as it might be for a more generic R, but having Schumer in charge means Biden would actually get a chance to pass an agenda and potentially overshadow Trump

Under his current state of mind (being in the middle of the whirlwind), I think he does not want McConnel to retain control- for several reasons.  Granted, I think his thoughts in this regard may (or may not) change once he's out of the White House.

[SCNCmod]

In Hannity's big push to scare his GA viewers into voting in the runoff (rant of wild claims about Warnock & Ossoff and what will happen if they win)...

he ends by claiming that in the Trafalgar Poll, Trafalgar factors in a 3.1% cheating factor. (this was his intro to interviewing Newt, with the Newt quote that GA Republicans need to turn out more votes than Stacey Abrams can steal).

Is this Trafalagar's way to not anger Hardcore R's who get mad at pollsters when polls don't go their way... or is this just a wild lie Hannity decides to spew? ...both of which seem odd and crazy.

(BTW- hopefully it won't matter, but Fox is making a much bigger effort to turnout R's ... compared to the attention CNN/ MSNBC are giving to the runoff).  Republicans basically are now getting round the clock (literally) GOTV assistance from FOX.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Nate Cohn says the E-day vote will be large and very republican however he seems to be sort of implying that it might be larger than the GE vote % wise,I'm not sure about that

I don't get this line of thought.  Where is it coming from?  Why would turnout be bigger % wise than in the GE without Trump on the ballot.  I don't see the low propensity deplorables coming out in droves the way they would on Election Day with Trump on the ballot.

This is their way of processing a potential D win I guess. They will need 1.5 million to come out on Election Day and win them 67-33. I don’t see it happening. And there are thousands of D-heavy mail in ballots that can be delivered before Tuesday at 7pm.

I would rather be Ossoff and Warnock tonight.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I am trying to create a post with all of the closing ads from the 4 candidates...

Can someone tell me how to insert youtube videos... or is the only option- to insert Tweets that contain the video?

(I will delete this when someone responds- as I'm not sure if how-to questions are supposed to be in this thread)

Click on the youtube button next to facebook and copy in the link.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I am trying to create a post with all of the closing ads from the 4 candidates...

Can someone tell me how to insert youtube videos... or is the only option- to insert Tweets that contain the video?

(I will delete this when someone responds- as I'm not sure if how-to questions are supposed to be in this thread)

Click on the youtube button next to facebook and copy in the link.

Thanks for the reply... but where are the youtube & facebook buttons.  I only see a twitter button, image button, etc

You don't have to bother with that. Just use [facebo0k], [y0utube], [/facebo0k], and [/y0utube]

(Zeros used to make the actual text show up, they're actually "o"s.)

[SCNCmod]

I am trying to create a post with all of the closing ads from the 4 candidates...

Can someone tell me how to insert youtube videos... or is the only option- to insert Tweets that contain the video?

(I will delete this when someone responds- as I'm not sure if how-to questions are supposed to be in this thread)

Click on the youtube button next to facebook and copy in the link.

Thanks for the reply... but where are the youtube & facebook buttons.  I only see a twitter button, image button, etc

You don't have to bother with that. Just use [facebo0k], [y0utube], [/facebo0k], and [/y0utube]

(Zeros used to make the actual text show up, they're actually "o"s.)

Thanks

[Hindsight was 2020]

I’m definitely more optimistic than I was back in December but I’m getting scared by the pre-GE talking points I’m seeing here about how Trump’s rigged rhetoric will be self-defeating (it wasn’t/isn’t) and how unrealistic it is that the GOP get a lopsided ED turnout/% to make up the EV (they can easily). It feels like we just forgot the general election and falling into the bad habit talking points again

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1345190357722664968

[Tender Branson]

I would also estimate something like 3.8 million altogether.

The last early voting day was extremely disappointing and even if it wasn’t, turnout would have hardly crossed 4 million combined ...

[Sharpshooter]

Republicans will lose because this is currently behaving like a Trump midterm

In reality we should be hearing about Biden, his cabinet, his plans for his presidency etc. Biden SHOULD be in the news.

But all we are hearing about is:

Trump trying overturn the election
Trump attacking Republican senators
Josh Hawley objecting to the results
McConnell not passing $2000 (being stupidly set up by Trump)
Perdue self quarantining

Republicans should've won this election but their post election behavior has been a complete disgrace.

For Biden to start losing, and acting like its one of his midterms, he needs to be put in the news.

[Brittain33]

Are we allowed to believe in Predictit now that it has Warnock winning and Ossoff catching up?

[roxas11]

Are we allowed to believe in Predictit now that it has Warnock winning and Ossoff catching up?

I will never take Predictit seriously after they still gave Trump a very good chance of winning even after it had already become clear that the race would be called for biden

Having said all of that it definitely shows that even the crazy fools on Predictit are losing faith in the GOP chances of winning in GA

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think one thing this forum is missing is that e-day turnout is only one piece of the puzzle, it’s also how heavily it breaks for the GOP. Considering how few people who have voted thus far in the runoffs voted on e-day in the GE, it seems unlikely Dems are cannabalizibg their own vote all that much, and in Nov, we saw some counties where the e-day vote was actually what skewed the heaviest D.

We could have a massive e-day turnout but if the GOP only wins it by 12 points, they still lose, and we could also have a small e-day turnout that the GOP wins by 30+ points

[compucomp]

Are we allowed to believe in Predictit now that it has Warnock winning and Ossoff catching up?

I will never take Predictit seriously after they still gave Trump a very good chance of winning even after it had already become clear that the race would be called for biden

Having said all of that it definitely shows that even the crazy fools on Predictit are losing faith in the GOP chances of winning in GA

I think "very good chance" is a stretch, I went back to the main Biden-Trump market and it was Trump 59-Biden 42 at 11:59PM on Nov. 3 and Biden 87-Trump 19 at 11:59 on Nov. 4. Yes, it was dumb that Trump shares were still trading around 10c after the race was called, but overseas gambling outfits were (and are still) experiencing the same phenomenon of people betting on Trump after the election.

It used to be that PredictIt markets would skew left, but this year the MAGA bettors took over and skewed everything to the right. I feel like the delusional MAGA money is staying out of this market and instead betting on outcomes like Mike Pompeo staying Secretary of State on Feb. 15 at 8c (free money available here), so maybe this market is too optimistic for Democrats again. I think the current prices are reasonable though, Warnock at 57 and Perdue at 55. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/AoDespair/status/1345404572546822144

[Sharpshooter]

Are we allowed to believe in Predictit now that it has Warnock winning and Ossoff catching up?

I will never take Predictit seriously after they still gave Trump a very good chance of winning even after it had already become clear that the race would be called for biden

Having said all of that it definitely shows that even the crazy fools on Predictit are losing faith in the GOP chances of winning in GA

I think "very good chance" is a stretch, I went back to the main Biden-Trump market and it was Trump 59-Biden 42 at 11:59PM on Nov. 3 and Biden 87-Trump 19 at 11:59 on Nov. 4. Yes, it was dumb that Trump shares were still trading around 10c after the race was called, but overseas gambling outfits were (and are still) experiencing the same phenomenon of people betting on Trump after the election.

It used to be that PredictIt markets would skew left, but this year the MAGA bettors took over and skewed everything to the right. I feel like the delusional MAGA money is staying out of this market and instead betting on outcomes like Mike Pompeo staying Secretary of State on Feb. 15 at 8c (free money available here), so maybe this market is too optimistic for Democrats again. I think the current prices are reasonable though, Warnock at 57 and Perdue at 55. 

Most of the people running the models online anyway don't think the Republicans have much of a prayer in this election in all honesty so I'm not sure why Perdue is favorite, Warnock is far too low as well.  Both should be about 80.

[SCNCmod]

Was a breakdown provided regarding what % of each voting method Ossoff won in the General (Mail-in, Early In-Person, Election Day)?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Campaign rally divides North Georgia community hit hard by COVID-19

Interesting article about the upcoming Trump rally in Dalton.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What's going to be really annoying is if one side wins both of these, they're going to act like they have a mandate to either fully persue Biden's agenda or entirely block Biden's agenda, even though basically half of the people who voted voted against their party.

A split verdict would be hilarious; it would be interesting to see how the parties react, and it would just be a crazy end to a crazy election cycle.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Did they just not update the number of mail ballots today or did literally no one send any in?