Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[2016]

Democratic Chances of winning those 2 Senate Seats went down the moment Joe Biden was declared the Winner in the Presidential Race. Republicans are now likely to be fired up even more especially considering how that Vote Count went in their State.

I'm curious how many 2024 GOP Hopefuls are going to campaign for Perdue and Loeffler the next two months: Cotton, Hawley, Haley, Rubio, DeSantis could all be descending into Georgia.

[2016]

GA will go blue and D's will hold a 51/49 Senate and pass the Heroes act after Jan 21, the Heroes Act is dependent on Leader Schumer notv with ex Leader McConnell

It's a shame that Rs don't want Heroes Act passed, that will happen if Rs stay in control

The Democrats can't get to 51 and here is why:

# 1 They would need to find some MAGIC BOXES in North Carolina to pull Cunningham over the Finish Line.
# 2 In a year where Republicans were able to defend Maine, Montana, Iowa, South Carolina and Texas Senator Dan Sullivan will be reelected in Alaska.

So best case Scenario for Democrats would be a 50-50 Senate Tie and they would need to win both GA-Runoffs to do that.

North Carolina & Alaska will be decided before Georgia Voters head to the Polls on January 5th 2021.

[2016]

This hasn't been mentioned. Don't forget that even Joe Biden isn't at 50% in Georgia.  The Libertarian Party is around 2.5% of the vote in Georgia (in the Perdue-Ossoff Senate race) and historically their voters go heavily to the Republicans in any runoff.

I'm sure some of that 2.5% (114,483 votes right now) for the Libertarian candidate wasn't for the Libertarians but was a 'none of the above vote' but, the Libertarian Party does have a good organization in Georgia (relatively speaking) so, there are a fair number of genuine Libertarian voters in Georgia and historically they've gone heavily to the Republican in any runoff.

It'll be a turnout game. If Democrats can juice their turnout and if even a small fraction of Republican voters are demoralized after Trump's loss, then we have a pretty good chance.

David Perdue isn't as polarized as Loeffler is so I think he is going to outperform again just like he did on Tuesday.

Best case scenario is a 50-50 Senate Tie for them. Remember: Unless Al Gross shocks the world and beats Dan Sullivan in Alaska or Democrats find some MAGIC BOXES in North Carolina to bring Cunningham back in the Game the Senate will be 48-50 in favor of Republicans. It could quite likely be that Perdue wins and Loeffler loses meaning 51-49 Republican Majority.

[2016]

This hasn't been mentioned. Don't forget that even Joe Biden isn't at 50% in Georgia.  The Libertarian Party is around 2.5% of the vote in Georgia (in the Perdue-Ossoff Senate race) and historically their voters go heavily to the Republicans in any runoff.

I'm sure some of that 2.5% (114,483 votes right now) for the Libertarian candidate wasn't for the Libertarians but was a 'none of the above vote' but, the Libertarian Party does have a good organization in Georgia (relatively speaking) so, there are a fair number of genuine Libertarian voters in Georgia and historically they've gone heavily to the Republican in any runoff.

It'll be a turnout game. If Democrats can juice their turnout and if even a small fraction of Republican voters are demoralized after Trump's loss, then we have a pretty good chance.

David Perdue isn't as polarized as Loeffler is so I think he is going to outperform again just like he did on Tuesday.

Best case scenario is a 50-50 Senate Tie for them. Remember: Unless Al Gross shocks the world and beats Dan Sullivan in Alaska or Democrats find some MAGIC BOXES in North Carolina to bring Cunningham back in the Game the Senate will be 48-50 in favor of Republicans. It could quite likely be that Perdue wins and Loeffler loses meaning 51-49 Republican Majority.

David Perdue should be fine.  Ossoff isn’t very popular and he already proved he can beat him by 2%.  I’m worried about Kelly which is why I voted for Collins to begin with.  I’m gonna work very hard to ensure both of them win.

I could be wrong, but I don't think that there will be too many Perdue-Warnock ticket splitters. As such, we are probably looking at a 52-48 GOP majority or a 50-50 Democratic majority. Like I said, it'll be a turnout game for both sides.

It could quite likely be that a lot of Republican suburban Voters who don't like Loeffler won't vote for her hence why Perdue wins and Loeffler loses because she underperforms.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/NikkiHaley/status/1326915681707843586

Nikki Haley is RIGHT! I can't fadom a Budget Chairman named Sanders in the Senate. This should be a big Motivation for Republicans in Georgia.

We need to hold our Senate Majority for a couple more Cycles until hyperbolic Bernie retires. I am scared having him as Chairman of the Senate Budget Committee. This would be a total Disaster!

[2016]

Karl Rove has seen enough of the liberal crapshow in our Country and has been appointed to serve as Finance Chair to the Georgia Battleground Fund, a joint Fundraising Committee between the GA Battleground Fund & the NRSC

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/16/karl-rove-fundraising-georgia-runoffs-436783

Ossoff & Warnock will be heavily outspend. Dan Quale, Haley, Barbour, etc among others are involved.

You liberals did a lot to make even Establishment Republicans very, very angry.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1328445205066838016?s=20

Nice try from Liberal Chuck but he'll go to nowhere with this IMO!

[2016]

These races are both safe R. In 2008 Obama lost the state by 6 points, with a 3 point Senate election. Republicans won the ensuing senate runoff by 16 points or something like that.

And so ends Mr. Electajoe's Senate coattails, one of the most dismal congressional campaign failures in recent Democratic history.

I'm not particularly hopeful about these two run-offs either, but Democrats have to try. There is too much at stake to just let McConnell have these seats without a fight.

And when it comes to the down-ballot races, as disappointing as they were, Georgia is one of the few states where the Democrat elected in 2018 got re-elected and over-performed Biden, and where Democrats actually picked up a seat. It does appear that Georgian suburbanites are more willing to support Democrats down-ballot than elsewhere in the country. Hopefully that will extend to the Senate races as well. There are things that can be worked with this year as opposed to most other Georgia run-offs.

Plain and simple: Lucy McBath and Carolyn Bourdeaux overperformed in GA-6 & GA-7 because Trump was on the Ballot. He won't be on the Runoff Ballot. Call it strange but both Races going to Runoffs may actually help Republicans more since there is no one now to vote against.

[2016]

Those two Races will come down if the White Suburban Women who helped Jo Biden rack up decent margins in DeKalb, Cobb, Gwinnett, Rockdale, Newton, Henry and Clayton will support Warnock & Ossoff in the Runoffs.

My guess is that they won't.

[2016]

The Democrats won't win these Seats - Period!

Biden has realized this already by thus far nominating "Safe Picks" to his Cabinet who can sail through the Senate without too much Republican Opposition. That tells me that he doesn't believe that they will win both Seats.

[2016]

The Democrats won't win these Seats - Period!

Biden has realized this already by thus far nominating "Safe Picks" to his Cabinet who can sail through the Senate without too much Republican Opposition. That tells me that he doesn't believe that they will win both Seats.

I still believe that if Republicans win one or both runoffs in Georgia, no nominee of his will get a hearing in the Senate.

This is quite stupid on your behalf. Of Course guys like Anthony Blinken will get a Hearing no matter what.

[2016]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/georgia-democrats-door-to-door-canvassing-senate-races

This is good news.

It may not matter. Republicans are supercharged now and contrary to what every liberal is saying here African American Turnout will not be deciding factor in my view.

It will come to the White Suburban Voters particularly White Suburban Women who grew sour on Trump in the Atlanta Suburbs like Cobb County and voted for Biden on Nov 3. Many are Republicans and I can't imagine that they would give the Biden Administration a Bank Check for everything.

Also, as Chuck Todd alluded to during the NBC Election Night Coverage the Democratic Candidates need at least 30 % of the White Vote to win Statewide. Bill Clinton got 32 % (WON), Biden got excatly 30 % (WON), Clinton got 21 % (LOST), Abrams got 25 (LOST). I don't Obama 2008 & 2012 Numbers for now.

[2016]

It may not matter. Republicans are supercharged now and contrary to what every liberal is saying here African American Turnout will not be deciding factor in my view.

Are they? It seems like they're pretty deflated and irreparably split on whether or not the whole 2020 election was fake.

No, they ain't. They know what's at stake!

[2016]

IMO it doesn't matter who controls the Senate.

The Democrats Dream that they can do "New Green Deal" "Court Packing" "D. C. & PR Statehood" "Ending Filibuster" pass "Heroes Act" are non existent with a 50-50 Senate and a best-case scenario 224-211 House.

Just not going to happen! Biden needed a bigger Congressional Margin to do that (Obama 2009).

[2016]

IMO it doesn't matter who controls the Senate.

The Democrats Dream that they can do "New Green Deal" "Court Packing" "D. C. & PR Statehood" "Ending Filibuster" pass "Heroes Act" are non existent with a 50-50 Senate and a best-case scenario 224-211 House.

Just not going to happen! Biden needed a bigger Congressional Margin to do that (Obama 2009).

Court packing and green new deal won't happen and I dont know what the heroes act is but we are definitely passing PR and DC statehood and ending the filibuster of we win the senate

Manchin already said he won't support ending the filibuster EVEN if Democrats take the Senate. Manchin wouldn't support PR & D.C. Statehood either! Dianne Feinstein also came out against ending the filibuster!

[2016]

IMO it doesn't matter who controls the Senate.

The Democrats Dream that they can do "New Green Deal" "Court Packing" "D. C. & PR Statehood" "Ending Filibuster" pass "Heroes Act" are non existent with a 50-50 Senate and a best-case scenario 224-211 House.

Just not going to happen! Biden needed a bigger Congressional Margin to do that (Obama 2009).

Court packing and green new deal won't happen and I dont know what the heroes act is but we are definitely passing PR and DC statehood and ending the filibuster of we win the senate

Manchin already said he won't support ending the filibuster EVEN if Democrats take the Senate. Manchin wouldn't support PR & D.C. Statehood either! Dianne Feinstein also came out against ending the filibuster!

Manchin will NOT stand in the way of DC statehood, and it's absurd to suggest that he would see no problem with Americans being locked out of representation on partisan grounds.

If Warnock and Ossoff win, the only question is whether Douglass is admitted in January or February.

Democrats would need to end the filibuster in the Senate to pass D. C. Statehood House Bill. You need 60 Votes for that and both Manchin & Feinstein said that they won't end it so what are you smoking here.

[2016]

Since a lot of Atlas Liberals bragging about the GA Early Vote Totals I thought I compare the GA Senate Runoff Vote to the 2018 Governor Race when Kemp narrowly beat Abrams.

2018 Govenor Race
Total Vote: 3,939,409

Electorate

GENDER
Female  54 %
Male  46 %

AGE
18-24  9 %
30-39  15 %
40-49  19 %
50-64  29 %
65+  22 %

RACE
White  60 %
Black  30 %
Hispanic (Latino)  5 %
Asian  2 %
Other  3 %

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/georgia

2021 Senate Runoffs
Total Vote to date: 3,001,017

GENDER
Female -

Male -

AGE
18-24  7.3 %
25-34  10.1 %
35-44  12.8 %
45-55  17.7 %
56-65  21.3 %
66+  30.8

RACE
White  55.8 %
Black  30.8 %
Hispanic (Latino)  2.2 %
Asian  2.4 %
Other  8.5 %

Signs are pointing to a narrow Perdue & Loeffler Win. While the AA Vote is on par to match the 2018 GA Governor Race the Electorate seems a lot older on Tuesday compared to 2018 which should help Republicans unless older Voters have completely changed their Voting pattern.

[2016]

Is there a breakdown of total early voters by age and race ?

Yes, see https://www.georgiavotes.com/.

I’m going to be attacked for this but this is a good microcosm of Atlas. I was starting to let the thought that Dems had a prayer creep into my head based on the “Black voters are 35-40% of the votes so
far”. I click on that..the number is 30%. Not NEARLY enough.

It seems like if your opinion isn’t a sunshine outlook on Dems chances you get ripped to shreds. Yet almost every Dem Senate race the last 4 years (16,18,20) has seemed to be a major disappointment other than Alabama.

Not even the crazy people on PredictIt are buying your Doomer spin about the Dems chances.
kelly loeffler is currently dropping like a stone while Warnock is now at the highest numbers he has ever been since the start of the race. heck even Purdue Numbers have been on the decline


If the dems chances were truly as bad as you are making it out to be than there is chance in hell many of the fools on that site would be losing faith in the GOP like they currently are

If you look at the Age Breakdown of the Early Vote it looks pretty disastrous for the Democrats. The Youth Vote is waaaay down compared to Nov 3rd and also compared to the GA Governor Race in 2018. Almost 70 % of Voters will be 45+ on Tuesday.

[2016]

Every poll has shown D's ahead 50 for Ossoff and WARNOCK and 45 for Perdue and Loeffler and Perdue just left the campaign trail due to Covid.

All the Ds have to keep it close this is GA not a blue wall state and they can win, we can't afford to let Mcconnell stay and he already obstructed the 2K Stimulus and he is only doing it and Ron Johnson only due to fact Biden is gonna be Prez

Every Poll showed Andrew Gillum beating Ron DeSantis in 2018 and Warnock is a far-worse Candidate then Gillum ever will be.

[2016]

Nate Cohn with his Antics again.

We have the Age Breakdown prolly Nate: Almost 31 % are 66+!

[2016]

Signs are pointing to a narrow Perdue & Loeffler Win. While the AA Vote is on par to match the 2018 GA Governor Race the Electorate seems a lot older on Tuesday compared to 2018 which should help Republicans unless older Voters have completely changed their Voting pattern.

We need race/age crosstabs. There's no way to tell which older voters are turning out.

This. Old doesn't equal GOP and young doesn't equal Democrat.

I would much rather a 68 year old Black woman turn out than a 22 year old white man who doesn't care about the election now that Trump isn't on the ballot but would absolutely vote Perdue/Loeffler if he did go vote.

This is sooo wrong from you! Younger Voters trend to vote more Democratic. That is uniformly confirmed in all 50 States. Older Voters trend to be voting more Republican and are also of less colour and White.

Ossoff and Warnock still need between 30-32 % of the White Vote to win the Election and they ain't going to get that.