Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Let us have a moment of silence for the poor Georgia voters who will be unable to watch broadcast or basic cable without having every other commercial be a political one until the runoffs are over.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/09/loeffler-perdue-georgia-secretary-state-resign-435484

Republican Sens. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue of Georgia called on the state’s GOP secretary of state to resign on Monday, citing “failures” in the election process but not providing any specific evidence to support their claims.

“There have been too many failures in Georgia elections this year and the most recent election has shined a national light on the problems,” Loeffler and Perdue said in a joint statement. “The Secretary of State has failed to deliver honest and transparent elections. He has failed the people of Georgia, and he should step down immediately."

....


Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger responded in a statement Monday saying he would not resign, and defended his office's handling of the election. He said the election was a "resounding success" from an administration perspective. He highlighted his office's briefings and updates to argue that they had conducted the process with transparency.

"I know emotions are running high. Politics are involved in everything right now," Raffensperger said. "If I was Senator Perdue, I’d be irritated I was in a runoff. And both Senators and I are all unhappy with the potential outcome for our President. But I am the duly elected Secretary of State. One of my duties involves helping to run elections for all Georgia voters. I have taken that oath, and I will execute that duty and follow Georgia law."

Raffensperger said the process for reporting results in the state was orderly and followed the law. And he added that while he was "sure" there were illegal votes cast, it was "unlikely" that there total rose to the "numbers or margin necessary to change the outcome" of the election.

He also took a shot at Perdue and Loeffler for their criticism: "As a Republican, I am concerned about Republicans keeping the U.S. Senate. I recommend that Senators Loeffler and Perdue start focusing on that."

I'm not entirely sure why either Purdue or Loeffler think attacking Raffensperger is a winning move for them. Wouldn't that make more sense as something that Osoff or Warnock could attempt to do?

They're upset he isn't helping Trump to steal the Presidential election (Not that Trump winning Georgia alone would help him. Indeed, despite Biden's current lead in Georgia, the State remains uncalled) and trying to browbeat him into helping them win the runoffs instead of doing his job properly. As for why they think that'll help them electorally, I'd guess they think publicly making baseless accusations will help bring out their base and thus their election chances. Both the Republican and Democratic bases were already likely to be fully energized anyway and this sort of childish petulance will certainly energize the Democratic base just as much as it energizes the Republican base. Moreover, I would think this would hurt them with the few actual swing voters out there, which given how close these races are, swing voters will likely decide the election.

Still, I can come up with two reasons they both are doing this. First, they think they need to do this to keep Trump from backstabbing Republican efforts to help them if they are seen as insufficiently bootlicking loyal. Second, they wrongly either think this won't hurt their chances or that they have no chances, so they are preparing to be warmly supported by Trumpists even after a potential loss.

The first of these two reasons makes the most sense to me.  I can't see this helping their chances in the runoff, and while Trumpists are likely to continue supporting their Commander-in-cheeto for some time to come, I don't see any cheeto dust adhering to those who blindly support Trump right now. Moreover, the two Republicans have excellent chances in the runoffs.  Historically, Republican leaning voters tend to have greater participation rates in runoffs. Moreover, running as a check on President-elect Biden and Chuck Schumer, is probably the most potent message they have for persuading swing voters to either vote for them or at the very least not vote for their opponents. However, Trump has already entered into a Samson-in-the-temple mode, so they probably can't openly run on being a check against Biden without earning the ire of the Big Cheetor, since it would imply they think Trump has lost.

If the Affordable Care Act gets strike down, oh boy...

There will be a lot of very angry Georgians heading to the poll

Even without worries about how it might affect elections, I would be surprised if the court issues a ruling before Georgians head to the polls.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The Democrats won't win these Seats - Period!

Biden has realized this already by thus far nominating "Safe Picks" to his Cabinet who can sail through the Senate without too much Republican Opposition. That tells me that he doesn't believe that they will win both Seats.

Even if the Democrats win both seats, they'll have a very narrow control of the Senate. Biden has better things to do with his time than push potentially controversial Cabinet picks through even a marginally Democratic Senate.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The Democrats won't win these Seats - Period!

Biden has realized this already by thus far nominating "Safe Picks" to his Cabinet who can sail through the Senate without too much Republican Opposition. That tells me that he doesn't believe that they will win both Seats.

I still believe that if Republicans win one or both runoffs in Georgia, no nominee of his will get a hearing in the Senate.

Then Biden pulls a Trump and puts in place some hack to serve as acting secretary. I think the Republicans would lose that game so they'll let "reasonable" appointees through.

Wouldn't it be nuts if he got Pelosi to help him dissolve Congress and recess appoint his cabinet? That would be funny I think.

It would probably be stupid. First off, Biden is extremely unlikely to pick controversial Cabinet members and I think he'd be happy enough with civil service acting secretaries in any case, so there's no need to use such an extreme tactic for a Cabinet member. What this tactic should be reserved for is a SCOTUS seat that McConnell refuses to allow Biden to fill.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

https://twitter.com/EricLevitz/status/1344365669207465986

All it takes is Democrats saying we’ll pas another round of stimulus for an 18 point swing? Yeah I’m not buying that. Voters can’t be that stupid to just believe anything they say. Also it’s not just about stimulus it’s about all the very far left agenda items they can pass if they have the senate. I imagine that is in independents minds as well.
I don’t get why so many people are just solely focusing on stimulus checks when this congress will be in form for 2 years

Even if the Democrats gain the Senate, all it will take is one defection to stop anything radical, so unless you believe that the Democrats are a monolithic party, that isn't a reason to choose your vote.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1346717289886920705?s=19

Not this again.

While it looks likely at this hour that he's lost, it's not certain yet.  In any case, Loeffler has every reason to make arrangements with United Van Lines to move her stuff from DC back to Georgia.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Perdue, expectedly, seems to have overperformed the most in the counties with the most white college grads (Oconee, Cobb, Hall). Loeffler overperformed the most in the far NW corner (Chatt media market/MTG land) and the extremely old school interior SE parts of the state around Waycross. Maybe 7-8 years back this is where the counties were that had still had segregated proms.

I actually wrote a piece on segregated proms in HS for our school paper (circa 2004). Nothing of the sort existed in Northwest GA in my lifetime (probably in large part because of a lack of black residents), but the SE interior definitely still had plenty of them throughout the early 2000s. Places like Toombs and Montgomery were infamous for them.

The high school I went to had "segregated" proms back in the early 1980s, but it was more because as non-official private parties, it was possible, tho obviously not legal, to have alcohol at them than any strong desire to keep them segregated.