2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[wbrocks67]

Is Biden still on track for a 100K win in PA?

Possibly.

NYT has him crossing 50K now in PA.

We still have ~7K mail-ins & 17K provisionals in Allegheny and ~8K mail-ins & 18-25K provisionals in Philly.

DOS website had 50K mail ins total for the state earlier left, while they also said 94K provisionals were taken on Election Day, but no one knows how many have been counted yet and how much will ultimately count. But Biden will likely net at least 25-30K out of the Allegheny/Philly provisionals alone.

[wbrocks67]

Is Biden still on track for a 100K win in PA?

I'd guess 70 to 75 thousand.  I don't think that outside of remade ballots, there are anything other than provisionals out there.

As of noon today, there were still 51k mail-ins to count in PA. And those don't count provisionals. Not sure if they even include overseas/military

https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

[GP270watch]

3,415 votes from Allegheny 60% - Bucks 40%

The split was Biden 70.8% / 29.2% Trump

50,215 vote lead for Biden in Pennsylvania.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326622414764175360

So it seems like VA, GA, MN, CO, ME (at-large president), NH, NE-02 polls were all more or less right on in the end. PA and AZ polls weren’t TERRIBLE on the whole. Even NC polls were off in direction but not that much in margin.

It’s MI, FL, and especially TX, OH, IA, and WI polls that were way off.

[wbrocks67]

3,415 votes from Allegheny 60% - Bucks 40%

The split was Biden 70.8% / 29.2% Trump

50,215 vote lead for Biden in Pennsylvania.

aaaaand some tiny votes must've come in from somewhere else, b/c Biden lead now 50.5K in PA, per Fox News

Joe Biden 3,381,608 (49.8%)
Donald Trump 3,331,125 (49.0%)

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326622414764175360

So it seems like VA, GA, MN, CO, ME (president) polls were all more or less right on in the end. PA and AZ polls weren’t TERRIBLE on the whole. Even NC polls were off in direction but not that much in margin.

It’s MI, FL, and especially TX, OH, IA, and WI polls that were way off.

Yep, even AZ and PA could be forgivable depending on final margins.

MI, FL, TX, OH, IA, and WI are all extreme problems though.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I just want Biden to win over 50% in the state and then I'll be satisfied.

[Person Man]

How likely will Democrats win at least one other House seat in New York with all the D heavy stuff out?

Suozzi will very likely come back.  Beyond that, probably not.

So it will be 222-213? A lot of this stuff is in liberal states, too. Too bad you can’t really gerrymander CA and NY huh?

[DINGO Joe]

Is Biden still on track for a 100K win in PA?

I'd guess 70 to 75 thousand.  I don't think that outside of remade ballots, there are anything other than provisionals out there.

As of noon today, there were still 51k mail-ins to count in PA. And those don't count provisionals. Not sure if they even include overseas/military

https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

I'm skeptical of the real time accuracy of that.  It's been in that range for two or three days now.  And about 20k of provisionals have been counted-- though mostly in R areas. 

[wbrocks67]

Is Biden still on track for a 100K win in PA?

I'd guess 70 to 75 thousand.  I don't think that outside of remade ballots, there are anything other than provisionals out there.

As of noon today, there were still 51k mail-ins to count in PA. And those don't count provisionals. Not sure if they even include overseas/military

https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

I'm skeptical of the real time accuracy of that.  It's been in that range for two or three days now.  And about 20k of provisionals have been counted-- though mostly in R areas. 

Not really, it was ~60K a day or two ago I believe, so makes sense it has gone down with ~10K mail ins counted in Philly/Allegheny

If only 20K provisionals have been counted though, we still have a long way. ~94K were used on Election Day.

Some counties are confusing though. Montco has ~4K mail-ins to be counted, and it's been at 4K since Thursday or Friday I think. Maybe they *are* provisionals and thats why they haven't been counted? I have no idea. It does appear though that the 17K in Allegheny and 18-25k in Philly have *not* been counted yet though, since I believe they were waiting to finish all mail-ins before getting to them.

[Tender Branson]

Cook Political has now updated their table with the 6 certified states.

Maybe LA did so yesterday, but didn’t update, because apparently there’s a holiday in the US today.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326622414764175360

So it seems like VA, GA, MN, CO, ME (at-large president), NH polls were all more or less right on in the end. PA and AZ polls weren’t TERRIBLE on the whole. Even NC polls were off in direction but not that much in margin.

It’s MI, FL, and especially TX, OH, IA, and WI polls that were way off.

So the states with the highest (regionally highest in the case of GA) % college grads were polled accurately, and the problems came in the states with the highest % non-college white and highest % Hispanic. 

BTW I would count AZ polls as being wrong in favor of Democrats.  The final NYT/Sienna was Biden +6 and it's going to be Biden +0.6 on a good day for Biden. 

[Crumpets]

Cook Political has now updated their table with the 6 certified states.

Maybe LA did so yesterday, but didn’t update, because apparently there’s a holiday in the US today.

Lol. Former Central Powers states don't celebrate Veterans'/Remembrance/Armistice Day on November 11th, I take it?

[NOVA Green]

Thanks for creating this thread Tender.

Makes it easier to try to locate finalized precinct results, since frequently State / County Agencies start posting these once numbers are official.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326622414764175360

So it seems like VA, GA, MN, CO, ME (at-large president), NH polls were all more or less right on in the end. PA and AZ polls weren’t TERRIBLE on the whole. Even NC polls were off in direction but not that much in margin.

It’s MI, FL, and especially TX, OH, IA, and WI polls that were way off.

So the states with the highest (regionally highest in the case of GA) % college grads were polled accurately, and the problems came in the states with the highest % non-college white and highest % Hispanic. 

BTW I would count AZ polls as being wrong in favor of Democrats.  The final NYT/Sienna was Biden +6 and it's going to be Biden +0.6 on a good day for Biden. 

But FiveThirtyEight average only had him up 2.6, only 2 points off is not too bad.

[Flabuckeye]

Anything coming out of AZ today?  Boy, would like to get that one in the books.  Would put real pressure on Trump with the high recount standards.

[Alben Barkley]

Anything coming out of AZ today?  Boy, would like to get that one in the books.  Would put real pressure on Trump with the high recount standards.

I don’t think there’s much of anything left?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326622414764175360

So it seems like VA, GA, MN, CO, ME (at-large president), NH polls were all more or less right on in the end. PA and AZ polls weren’t TERRIBLE on the whole. Even NC polls were off in direction but not that much in margin.

It’s MI, FL, and especially TX, OH, IA, and WI polls that were way off.

So the states with the highest (regionally highest in the case of GA) % college grads were polled accurately, and the problems came in the states with the highest % non-college white and highest % Hispanic. 

BTW I would count AZ polls as being wrong in favor of Democrats.  The final NYT/Sienna was Biden +6 and it's going to be Biden +0.6 on a good day for Biden. 

But FiveThirtyEight average only had him up 2.6, only 2 points off is not too bad.

Right.  We need to compare final averages with final results.  Single polls are useful only in telling you how that specific pollster performed.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anything coming out of AZ today?  Boy, would like to get that one in the books.  Would put real pressure on Trump with the high recount standards.

I don’t think there’s much of anything left?

There's an estimated 45K outstanding (27K of which is provisionals and 3K needing signature cures -- not all of these categories will be accepted).  They may have stopped counting today for the holiday.

[Alben Barkley]

The weird thing to me is you can say “Oh it’s all because of the states with higher percentages of whites without degrees, Latinos, etc.” but then why were the polls not AS off in 2016 in those states? MI and such were closer, IA and OH clearly favored Trump towards the end of 2016. TX actually underestimated Hillary (and then Beto in 2018), FL was a pure toss-up and turned out that way.

If anything it almost seems like weighting for education, supposedly the solution, somehow made things worse. Especially considering Selzer doesn’t do it and yet she had the most accurate poll. Whatever she does, other pollsters in other states should try to replicate.

[Person Man]

Anything coming out of AZ today?  Boy, would like to get that one in the books.  Would put real pressure on Trump with the high recount standards.

I don’t think there’s much of anything left?

There's an estimated 45K outstanding (27K of which is provisionals and 3K needing signature cures -- not all of these categories will be accepted).  They may have stopped counting today for the holiday.

Realistically 35k?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anything coming out of AZ today?  Boy, would like to get that one in the books.  Would put real pressure on Trump with the high recount standards.

I don’t think there’s much of anything left?

There's an estimated 45K outstanding (27K of which is provisionals and 3K needing signature cures -- not all of these categories will be accepted).  They may have stopped counting today for the holiday.

Realistically 35k?

The model I've been using in the updates to see whether Trump could catch up uses 50% acceptance for the signature cures and 80% for provisionals.  That estimates 38,835 accepted of 45,819 remaining ballots.  But both of those percentages are unrealistically high (deliberately so to see if Trump had any realistic chance).  35K is probably a reasonable estimate; if anything, I'd take the under on it.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Anything coming out of AZ today?  Boy, would like to get that one in the books.  Would put real pressure on Trump with the high recount standards.

We didn't really get anything notable, but the state's Republican Attorney General said that he believes Biden will carry the state.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/nycjim/status/1326639465402667009

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1326575307248308224

You may now sleep on Al Gross.