Czech Politics: Fiala government

[Diouf]

Babis says in an interview with MF DNES that this election will be his last one, and if ANO doesn't stay in government, he will leave politics as he can't see himself on the opposition benches. He says that if this election ends up with ODS and Pirates in power together, we will see a surrender of sovereignty to Brussels and adoption of the euro, raised taxes, freezed pensions, a privatision of hospitals and Czech Post, and an economy in recession. Babis said he would reach out to all parties after the election, except the Pirates because they will will restrict everything, forbid and dictate to us how we should live, and hand over the sovereignty of the Czech Republic to the European Parliament and other countries. Both SPOLU and PiratiStan have of course said that they won't join a government with Babis.

[Diouf]

So the voting starts tomorrow and as usual takes place over two days. Polls are open from 14.00-20.00 on Friday, and from 08.00-14.00 on Saturday.

Ceska Televize can be followed here and will surely have a livestream available Saturday https://ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/
MF DNES also tends to have very good clickable election graphics: https://www.idnes.cz/volby

Two important things to remember. The electoral system has been changed. See my post below from earlier this year with the new system as well as a calculation of the 2017 result with the new system. This means that in reality the current governing majority has already lost its majority, and ANO has lost 9 seats. I'm guessing the broadcasters will show seat counts compared to the actual 2017 result. So it's important to remember that even if ANO keeps its vote share or only drop a little, it will significantly lose seats. Another thing to remember is that they don't tend to make running, updated prognosis of the final result based on votes coming in. There will proably be an exit poll when polls close, but other than that it is usually pure vote count. Which means that the Prague vote comes in late which should be kept in mind. This in 2017 e.g. meant that TOP09 slowly crept up throughout the evening, and crossed the 5% threshold very late.

There seems to be agreement on a new electoral system after the Constitutional Court's verdict. I haven't seen the final compromise text yet, but from what i can see it will be in this way:
The threshold will stay at 5% for single parties, 8% for a 2-party coalition and 11% for a coalition with more than two parties. So there will still be higher threshold for coalitions, but lower than the 10% and 15% threshold struck down by the court.
In terms of the distribution of the seats, it will now be a two-tier process with compensatory seats instead of the previous system, where seats were only distributed on the regional level. In the new system, the Imperiali quota (votes for parties above threshold/number of seats + 2) will be calculated for each region. Then parties will get seats according to how many times, they pass the quota. So with 90.000 votes, and a 20.000 quota, it would be 4 seats. After this first distribution, there will be some seats undistributed (around 30 of 200 expected). Nationally, the distribution of these seats will be calculated based on a nationwide quota (surplus votes from the regional distribution for all parties above threshold/number of seats left + 1). If the seat distribution via quota does not match the exact number of seats to give, then the parties closest to an extra seat via quota will get the seat (or the other way around if too many seats are distributed). There was then quite some debate about how these compensatory seats should be distributed on the regional level. Committee leader Benda from ODS thought it a super idea to allow the parties themselves to decide in which regions they wanted their compensatory seats, but luckily a sane majority in parliament decided that these seats are distributed automatically, taking into account a party's votes and seats in each region + the number of seats left in each region.
It is still semi-closed lists. You can break the list from a lower position if you get at least 5% of the party's votes.
To me it seems like a really great outcome. The two-tier process and the quota distribution should give a more fair distribution of seats on the national level, like the court mandated. I would prefer completely open party lists, but you can't get the perfect system.

I tried to do a calculation of the new system with the 2017 results.
I get the following numbers:

ANO 69 (-9)
ODS 24 (-1)
Pirati 24 (+2)
SPD 23 (+1)
KSCM 16 (+1)
CSSD 15 (=)
KDU-CSL 11 (+1)
TOP09 9 (+2)
STAN 9 (+3)

As expected, smaller parties benefit while bigger parties lose. The new system will also advantage those parties who will have been just below the old regional seat threshold in many places; often because many votes have been received in one or two regions. The governing majority would just lose its majority with this system (100 seats out of 200).

[Mike88]

Are there reports about turnout during today? Also, polls closed at 8pm, or will they remain open until 10pm?

[Diouf]

I haven't seen any educated guesses on the turnout after the first day. Just that there are indictions that turnout is higher than for some years. The last two elections it has been around 60%. There are some talks it could be 65% or higher, which would be the highest since 1998 when it was all the way up at 73.9%.

[Mike88]

Live feed of TV Nova:

Polls close in 15 minutes.

[Mike88]

Polls have closed. No exit polls, it seems.

However, turnout seems to be around 70% this time, just like Diouf said.

[Astatine]

The live stream includes the ongoing vote count!
Right now, with 0.09 % of all precincts counted:

ANO: 28.2
SPOLU: 25.0
SPD: 11.2
PaS: 10.2
CSSD: 6.6
KSCM: 5.9
Prisaha: 3.5

[Diouf]

PiratiStan likely not gonna reach the heights they polled a few months ago, but they should be the party rising throughout the evening as Prague votes get counted.

[Diouf]

5% counted, and already it looks like the Trikolora-led alliance won't get enough votes to really challenge for the threshold. They are only at 2.62%.

[Logical]

5,65% precincts counted
64,65% turnout

ANO 30,7%
SPOLU 23,8%
PirStan 12,8%
SPD 10,7
CSSD 5,3%
Prisaha 4,8%
KSCM 4,5%

Still nothing from Prague

[Diouf]

And both CSSD and KSCM will need a good buffer to the 5% threshold before the flood of the Prague votes as they tend to underperform in the capital. Not as clear to me yet how Prisaha's distribution will be.

[Diouf]

If all the parties around the threshold end up missing it, it will likely come down to whether ANO + SPD is bigger than SPOLU + PiratiStan.

[Mike88]

I assume that Prague will give strong results for the Pirates and SPOLU. ANO could poll 3rd this time in the capital.

[Keep Calm and ...]

I have found a live prediction. But I can't say if it's reputable. https://twitter.com/martinhakl/status/1446824873448415233

http://volby.live/

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

And both CSSD and KSCM will need a good buffer to the 5% threshold before the flood of the Prague votes as they tend to underperform in the capital. Not as clear to me yet how Prisaha's distribution will be.

The fate of CSSD depends on Jana Maláčová. Who would have thought? /s

[Diouf]

I assume that Prague will give strong results for the Pirates and SPOLU. ANO could poll 3rd this time in the capital.

Yes, after the first tiny batch from Prague it's SPOLU 42.2%, PiratiStan 23.4% and ANO 15.7%.
Would have thought the Pirates would be higher, but is perhaps because one still needs to mark it down along their general fall in polls.

[Logical]

20,98% precincts counted
64,38% turnout

ANO 30,1%
SPOLU 23,7%
PirStan 13,4%
SPD 10,9%
CSSD 5,2%
Prisaha 4,8%
KSCM 4,4%

First Prague results are in and CSSD, Prisaha, KSCM are all hovering at ~3%. Doesn't look like they'll make it.

[Diouf]

Seems fairly certain that KSCM isn't making it. Doing the worst of the three in the rest of the country, and really poor in Prague so far.

[Logical]

35,64% precincts counted
64,13% turnout

ANO 30,08%
SPOLU 24,04%
PirStan 13,57%
SPD 10,85%
CSSD 5,09%
Prisaha 4,86%
KSCM 4,29%

[Keep Calm and ...]

Another projection

https://twitter.com/CNNPrima/status/1446832914394763266

[Diouf]

Another projection

https://twitter.com/CNNPrima/status/1446832914394763266

4.99% !!!

[Diouf]

Prague is 7,5% counted, and Malacova is keeping CSSD on 4.1%, the best of the three among the threshold. Will be very tight.

[Logical]

49,66% precincts counted
63,91% turnout

ANO 29,75%
SPOLU 24,54%
PirStan 13,87%
SPD 10,68%
CSSD 4,99%
Prisaha 4,80%
KSCM 4,16%

CSSD below threshold for the first time lol.

Bloc wise both ANO + SPD and SPOLU + PirStan have 100 seats each.

[Diouf]

With CSSD below the threshold, the seat distribution is  currently 100 vs. 100. But with so much of Prague left to count, it should be a realtively clear advantage for SPOLU + PiratiStan at the end.

[Logical]

Something weird is happening with the open list preferential votes for PirStan. They're currently projected at 35 seats but Pirates will only take 2 of them!!!! STAN takes the rest (33). In 2017 STAN only won 6 seats while Pirati got 22.