2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[adma]

An NDP vote in southern Calgary is almost as meaningless as one in rural Alberta. That's Stephen Harper/Jason Kenney territory. It's about as meaningful as a Conservative vote in the heart of Montreal. 

I know it's *electorally* meaningless; nevertheless, it's interesting statistical noise, and perhaps reflects the NDP's present status as a more broadly appetizing big-tent vote-park than the Libs in places where "Alberta is Alberta".  Or, the Libs as the "Justin party" vs the NDP as the "Rachel party"--and *maybe*, in that electoral-symbiosis way, laying the ground for the next provincial election around these parts.

Perhaps that's the interesting thing about 2021 vs 2019 and 2015:  it's the first federal election conducted while *both* the provincial *and* the federal parties were walking on water, so to speak.  (In 2015, Albertans were already having morning-after remorse over electing the Notley gov't, and Mulcair was sideswiped by Justinmania.  In 2019, Notley was freshly defeated and Jagmeet hadn't yet found his sea legs.)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I don't want to bring race up like this, but it is notable that Skyview was the only one of the four Calgary ridings where they ran a minority candidate (although they did run women in two of them).

Not quite, their elected candidate in Calgary, George Chahal, is Indo-Canadian. Probably a different dynamic though since Skyview is majority-minority. (Edit: I misread your comment, I thought you were talking about Calgary Centre lol. In any case, the Liberal candidate in Calgary Centre is also a visible minority, but I guess she's white-passing)

I think you're right in the sense that race and immigration status probably is the thing that makes Skyview more Liberal-friendly than Centre, but I doubt running a white person in Calgary Centre would have made a huge difference. Calgary Centre is a little different than most "centre" ridings in that it contains a downtown core that is more left-leaning and elects the ANDP provincially, but its southern half seems more suburban, affluent, and UCP-friendly at the provincial level too. A more left-leaning Calgary Centre riding would include the northern half of Calgary Centre and the southern half of Calgary Confederation, both of which are ANDP areas and presumably more Liberal-competitive than both ridings in their current configuration.

[Mike88]

This may have already been answered, but this is the first time that a PM loses the popular vote for a second time in a row, but still wins the most seats, right?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

In terms of Rachel Notley pulling off another majority government, it seems like the NDP will have to get a near 2015 result in Edmonton, win a strong majority of seats in Calgary, and pick off a few small city/rural ridings. You mention the issue for the federal NDP in Calgary. The Alberta NDP still has its work cut out for it.

No doubt that Calgary will always be a challenge for the AB NDP, but keep in mind that AB politics is quite a different system. The Alberta Liberals are basically a non-factor, they got less than 1% of the vote last time. Most federal Liberals there probably voted NDP in the last two elections, so when predicting AB NDP vote shares, it might not be too much of a stretch to add NDP+LPC results. I'd say anyone who votes for any of the NDP, LPC, or GPC federally is an accessible vote for Notley's NDP, and with Kenney's unpopularity, even a lot of soft CPC voters are winnable.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

This may have already been answered, but this is the first time that a PM loses the popular vote for a second time in a row, but still wins the most seats, right?

That's correct, no party has won the most seats twice in a row while losing the PV in both elections.

[TML]

There appears to be enough information for me to calculate hypothetical results if Canada used an American-style Electoral College to conduct this election, based on provincial/territorial popular vote totals.

Assumptions:

-The number of electors assigned to each province/territory is equivalent to the number of seats assigned to the Senate + House of Commons for that province/territory.
-Each province/territory uses the winner-take-all method of assigning electors.
-All electors are pledged to the leaders of each political party (this means Trudeau for the Liberals, O'Toole for the Conservatives, Blanchet for the BQ, Singh for the NDP, Paul for the Greens, and Bernier for the People's Party).

The following factors are NOT taken into consideration for this calculation:

-The potential decisions of parties aside from the Liberals & Conservatives to not actively stand for election.
-The potential effects of "strategic voting" by voters.
-The differing ways the parties/candidates may choose to conduct their campaigns under such a system.

Province/Territory	Electors	Winner
Alberta	40 (34 + 6)	O'Toole/Conservative
British Columbia	48 (42 + 6)	O'Toole/Conservative
Manitoba	20 (14 + 6)	O'Toole/Conservative
New Brunswick	20 (10 + 10)	Trudeau/Liberal
Newfoundland and Labrador	13 (7 + 6)	Trudeau/Liberal
Northwest Territories	2 (1 + 1)	Trudeau/Liberal
Nova Scotia	21 (11 + 10)	Trudeau/Liberal
Nunavut	2 (1 + 1)	Singh/NDP
Ontario	145 (121 + 24)	Trudeau/Liberal
Prince Edward Island	8 (4 + 4)	Trudeau/Liberal
Quebec	102 (78 + 24)	Trudeau/Liberal
Saskatchewan	20 (14 + 6)	O'Toole/Conservative
Yukon	2 (1 + 1)	Trudeau/Liberal

Totals:

Trudeau/Liberal: 313
O'Toole/Conservative: 128
Singh/NDP: 2

[DistingFlyer]

Still only those same thirteen validated counts completed, but with the preliminary tallies one can still do a decent regional breakdown:

Atlantic
Lib - 43.6% (+3%), 24 MPs (-2)
Cons - 31.5% (+3%), 8 MPs (+4)
NDP - 16.9% (+1%)
PPC - 4.4% (+3%)
GP - 3.2% (-9%)

Quebec
Lib - 33.6% (-1%), 34 MPs (-1)
BQ - 32.1% (-0%), 33 MPs (+1)
Cons - 18.6% (+3%), 10 MPs
NDP - 9.8% (-1%), 1 MP
PPC - 2.7% (+1%)
GP - 1.5% (-3%)

Montreal & Laval
Lib - 48.9% (+0%), 20 MPs
BQ - 18.4% (-1%), 1 MP
NDP - 15.7% (+1%), 1 MP
Cons - 11.5% (+1%)
PPC - 2.9%
GP - 5.6% (+4%)

Rest of Quebec
BQ - 36.9% (-0%), 32 MPs (+1)
Lib - 28.3% (-1%), 14 MPs (-1)
Cons - 21.1% (+3%), 10 MPs
NDP - 7.7% (-2%)
PPC - 2.6%
GP - 1.4% (-3%)

Ontario
Lib - 39.3% (-2%), 78 MPs (-1)
Cons - 34.9% (+2%), 37 MPs (+1)
NDP - 17.9% (+1%), 5 MPs (-1)
PPC - 5.5% (+4%)
GP - 2.2% (-4%), 1 MP (+1)

Metro Toronto
Lib - 52.1% (-2%), 25 MPs
Cons - 23.7% (+1%)
NDP - 18.4% (+2%)
PPC - 3.4%
GP - 2.1% (-3%)

Greater Toronto Area (incl. Metro)
Lib - 48.7% (-1%), 50 MPs (+1)
Cons - 31.2% (+1%), 5 MPs (-1)
NDP - 14.6% (+1%)
PPC - 3.6%
GP - 1.6% (-3%)

Rest of Ontario
Cons - 37.4% (+2%), 32 MPs (+2)
Lib - 32.7% (-3%), 28 MPs (-2)
NDP - 20.1% (+1%), 5 MPs (-1)
PPC - 6.8%
GP - 2.6% (-5%)

Eastern Ontario
Cons - 37.8% (+2%), 10 MPs (+2)
Lib - 37.5% (-2%), 9 MPs (-2)
NDP - 17.4% (+2%)
PPC - 4.5%
GP - 2.4% (-4%)

Western Ontario
Cons - 37.1% (+2%), 16 MPs
Lib - 30.5% (-3%), 13 MPs
NDP - 20.9% (+1%), 3 MPs (-1)
PPC - 7.9%
GP - 3.1% (-5%), 1 MP (+1)

Northern Ontario
Cons - 32.4% (+4%), 2 MPs
Lib - 31.2% (-4%), 6 MPs
NDP - 26.9% (-0%), 2 MPs
PPC - 7.4%
GP - 1.7% (-5%)

West
Cons - 44.5% (-7%), 64 MPs (-7)
NDP - 24.0% (+5%), 18 MPs (+3)
Lib - 21.2% (+1%), 21 MPs (+6)
PPC - 6.3% (+4%)
GP - 2.9% (-4%), 1 MP (-1)

Prairies
Cons - 52.9% (-11%), 51 MPs (-3)
NDP - 20.2% (+5%), 5 MPS (+1)
Lib - 17.0% (+1%), 6 MPs (+2)
PPC - 7.3% (+5%)
GP - 1.1% (-2%)

British Columbia
Cons - 33.2% (-1%), 13 MPs (-4)
NDP - 29.2% (+5%), 13 MPs (+2)
Lib - 27.0% (+1%), 15 MPs (+4)
GP - 5.3% (-7%), 1 MP (-1)
PPC - 4.9% (+3%)

Greater Vancouver
Lib - 37.0% (+3%), 15 MPs (+4)
Cons - 28.3% (-1%), 2 MPs (-4)
NDP - 28.2% (+4%), 5 MPs (+1)
PPC - 3.2%
GP - 2.8% (-6%)

Rest of BC
Cons - 37.7% (-0%), 11 MPs
NDP - 30.0% (+5%), 8 MPs (+1)
Lib - 17.9% (-1%)
GP - 7.5% (-8%), 1 MP (-1)
PPC - 6.4%

North
Lib - 35.4% (+0%), 2 MPs
NDP - 30.4% (+4%), 1 MP
Cons - 20.4% (-8%)
GP - 2.9% (-6%)

CANADA
Cons - 33.7% (-1%), 119 MPs (-2)
Lib - 32.6% (-1%), 159 MPs (+2)
NDP - 17.8% (+2), 25 MPs (+1)
BQ - 7.7% (+0%), 33 MPs (+1)
PPC - 5.0% (+3%)
GP - 2.3% (-4%), 2 MPs (-1)

Canada minus Quebec
Cons - 38.4% (-2%), 109 MPs (-2)
Lib - 32.3% (-0%), 125 MPs (+3)
NDP - 20.3% (+3%), 24 MPs (+1)
PPC - 5.7% (+4%)
GP - 2.6% (-5%), 2 MPs (-1)



A lot to take in here, but what particularly interested me was Northern Ontario. In the discussion two years ago, I mentioned that the Liberal lead there was smaller than in Ontario as a whole - perhaps the first-ever time that that had happened - and wondered if its voting patterns might be becoming more like the Prairies than the rest of Ontario. With another election down, it looks like that trend is continuing, as the Tories gained a larger percentage of the vote there (4%) than in any other region of the province (just as they did in 2019), and although they didn't gain any seats, outpolled the Liberals - which I don't think has ever happened while the Tories were simultaneously losing Ontario overall.

[DistingFlyer]

Here's an update of my safe/moderate/marginal chart from two years ago; a little surprised to see the overall balance not change that much, especially on the Tory side (56 ridings won by >25% in both 2019 & 2021).



(As a reminder, safe means a margin of >25%, moderate means 10-25%, and marginal means <10%.)

Safest Tory riding: Souris - Moose Mountain, won by 67.2% (first time since 1963 that their best result was in Saskatchewan, and the first time ever that the safest seat for any party was in Saskatchewan - it's also, however, the Tories' weakest 'best result' since the PC-vs-Alliance days)
Safest Liberal riding: Saint-Leonard - Saint-Michel, won by 58.8% (same seat as last time, with an increased majority)
Safest Bloc riding: Avignon - La Mitis - Matane - Matapedia, won by 38.3% (mirroring the PQ's best result in 2018)
Safest NDP riding: Vancouver East, won by 36.5% (same seat as last time, with a slightly increased margin)
Safest Green riding: Saanich - Gulf Islands, won by 14.9% (same seat as always, with a greatly reduced majority)

[DistingFlyer]

This may have already been answered, but this is the first time that a PM loses the popular vote for a second time in a row, but still wins the most seats, right?

That's correct, no party has won the most seats twice in a row while losing the PV in both elections.

If one factors in dual-member ridings (which existed until 1965), then the Tories lost the popular vote in 1962 as well as 1957 - not consecutive, like 2019 & 2021, but two out of three.

[Хahar 🤔]

In terms of Rachel Notley pulling off another majority government, it seems like the NDP will have to get a near 2015 result in Edmonton, win a strong majority of seats in Calgary, and pick off a few small city/rural ridings. You mention the issue for the federal NDP in Calgary. The Alberta NDP still has its work cut out for it.

On the current provincial polling numbers this will not be difficult.

[DistingFlyer]

Obviously not every PPC vote would have gone Tory had there been no candidate, but here are the ridings where the PPC vote was greater than the margin by which the Tory candidate lost (if you like, the maximum number of seats that the PPC could have 'cost' the Tories):

Nova Scotia
Sydney - Victoria (Liberal)

Quebec
Trois-Rivieres (Bloc)

Ontario
Aurora - Oak Ridges - Richmond Hill (Liberal)
Cambridge (Liberal)
Kitchener South - Hespeler (Liberal)
Kitchener - Conestoga (Liberal)
London West (Liberal)
Niagara Centre (Liberal)
Nickel Belt (Liberal)
Nipissing - Timiskaming (Liberal)
Sault Ste. Marie (Liberal)
St. Catharines (Liberal)
Thunder Bay - Rainy River (Liberal)
Timmins - James Bay (NDP)
Windsor - Tecumseh (Liberal)

Alberta
Edmonton Centre (Liberal)
Edmonton Griesbach (NDP)

British Columbia
Cloverdale - Langley City (Liberal)
Nanaimo - Ladysmith (NDP)
North Island - Powell River (NDP)
Richmond Centre (Liberal) EDIT: validated count now puts this outside the margin
Skeena - Bulkley Valley (NDP)
South Okanagan - West Kootenay (NDP)


That's a total of fifteen Liberal, six NDP & one Bloc riding, so even if every PPC voter had gone Tory instead, giving the Tories a popular vote lead of 39% to 33%, the Liberals would still have elected more MPs (144 to 141).

[mileslunn]

9.  In Ontario, where splits most problematic (after all CPC + PPC got more votes than LPC in the province and combined right cracked 40% mark, which is actually pretty good for the right there), PPC was strongest in Southwestern Ontario and Northern Ontario.  Former is a Tory stronghold, but latter is not.  More importantly PPC did not do well in GTA which cost Tories election, but didn't either in Eastern Ontario outside Ottawa and Central Ontario where Tories did well.  It seems PPC support was strongest in areas that have struggled most with deindustrialization (shades of Brexit or Trump) and biggest correlation in Ontario was PPC strongest in areas that have seen biggest economic decline irrespective of whether they were right or left leaning areas.  Otherwise appealed to disillusioned angry voters.

Northern Ontario's actually an interesting case, and rudiments of this "swing to the right" were already evident in '19--this time, all but 3 Northern ridings saw CPC + PPC on top.  (And of the remaining 3, said "united right" was less than a point short in Sudbury, 4 points short in Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, and only in TBSN were they safely double-digits behind.)

Rural Newfoundland and Cape Breton Island also saw CPC do surprisingly well even better than Harper in 2011 majority although PPC not so well so I think the urban/rural split becoming more entrenched.  Good news for Liberals in terms of winning an election as more live in metro areas than outside but bad news if you want to get a majority.  It will be interesting to see polls in mixed urban/rural ridings.  I kind of have a feeling in ones like Fredericton and Peterborough-Kawartha it was city that saved Liberals in first and rural parts that cost the min latter.

[mileslunn]

Obviously not every PPC vote would have gone Tory had there been no candidate, but here are the ridings where the PPC vote was greater than the margin by which the Tory candidate lost (if you like, the maximum number of seats that the PPC could have 'cost' the Tories):

Nova Scotia
Sydney - Victoria (Liberal)

Quebec
Trois-Rivieres (Bloc)

Ontario
Aurora - Oak Ridges - Richmond Hill (Liberal)
Cambridge (Liberal)
Kitchener South - Hespeler (Liberal)
Kitchener - Conestoga (Liberal)
London West (Liberal)
Niagara Centre (Liberal)
Nickel Belt (Liberal) (Conservatives third)
Nipissing - Timiskaming (Liberal)
Sault Ste. Marie (Liberal)
St. Catharines (Liberal)
Thunder Bay - Rainy River (Liberal)
Timmins - James Bay (NDP)
Windsor - Tecumseh (Liberal)

Alberta
Edmonton Centre (Liberal)
Edmonton Griesbach (NDP)

British Columbia
Cloverdale - Langley City (Liberal)
Nanaimo - Ladysmith (NDP)
North Island - Powell River (NDP)
Richmond Centre (Liberal)
Skeena - Bulkley Valley (NDP)
South Okanagan - West Kootenay (NDP)


That's a total of sixteen Liberal, six NDP & one Bloc riding, so even if every PPC voter had gone Tory instead, giving the Tories a popular vote lead of 39% to 33%, the Liberals would still have elected more MPs (143 to 142).

Seems a lot were your blue collar types that don't traditionally go Conservative.  But not a total surprise.  For all O'Toole's appeal to blue collar workers, I think PPC was able to do well there as many are upset and PPC largely fed off anger.  You saw same with Brexit as best results were often northern Labour seats and many of the biggest swings to Trump were likewise blue collar areas in Midwest.

[DistingFlyer]

Obviously not every PPC vote would have gone Tory had there been no candidate, but here are the ridings where the PPC vote was greater than the margin by which the Tory candidate lost (if you like, the maximum number of seats that the PPC could have 'cost' the Tories):

Nova Scotia
Sydney - Victoria (Liberal)

Quebec
Trois-Rivieres (Bloc)

Ontario
Aurora - Oak Ridges - Richmond Hill (Liberal)
Cambridge (Liberal)
Kitchener South - Hespeler (Liberal)
Kitchener - Conestoga (Liberal)
London West (Liberal)
Niagara Centre (Liberal)
Nickel Belt (Liberal) (Conservatives third)
Nipissing - Timiskaming (Liberal)
Sault Ste. Marie (Liberal)
St. Catharines (Liberal)
Thunder Bay - Rainy River (Liberal)
Timmins - James Bay (NDP)
Windsor - Tecumseh (Liberal)

Alberta
Edmonton Centre (Liberal)
Edmonton Griesbach (NDP)

British Columbia
Cloverdale - Langley City (Liberal)
Nanaimo - Ladysmith (NDP)
North Island - Powell River (NDP)
Richmond Centre (Liberal)
Skeena - Bulkley Valley (NDP)
South Okanagan - West Kootenay (NDP)


That's a total of sixteen Liberal, six NDP & one Bloc riding, so even if every PPC voter had gone Tory instead, giving the Tories a popular vote lead of 39% to 33%, the Liberals would still have elected more MPs (143 to 142).

Seems a lot were your blue collar types that don't traditionally go Conservative.  But not a total surprise.  For all O'Toole's appeal to blue collar workers, I think PPC was able to do well there as many are upset and PPC largely fed off anger.  You saw same with Brexit as best results were often northern Labour seats and many of the biggest swings to Trump were likewise blue collar areas in Midwest.

Looks like it, particularly in Ontario - five of the ten northern ridings show up here, including some that haven't gone Tory since the Depression.

[DistingFlyer]

More validated counts coming through today, with the total now at thirty-five. Breakdown is as follows:


Lib - 17 MPs (+2), 31.4% (+0%)
Cons - 12 MPs (-2), 32.6% (+1%)
NDP - 3 MPs (+1), 17.7% (+1%)
BQ - 3 MPs, 10.4% (+0%)
PPC - 4.6% (+3%)
GP - 2.1% (-5%, -1 MP)

The validated results to show seats changing hands so far are Fredericton (GP to Lib), Cloverdale - Langley City (Cons to Lib) & Port Moody - Coquitlam (Cons to NDP).

[adma]

Skeena - Bulkley Valley (NDP)

And *that* might be another interesting case--that is, in a post-Nathan Cullen era, it's more vulnerable than it looks (and in a manner akin to much of Northern Ontario).

Meanwhile, Niki Ashton slid 8 points, but vs a split opposition--she could only be plausibly defeated by the Libs; and despite the FN counter-endorsement, this wasn't the election to do it. And the Cons have a fatally low ceiling, unless they rack up astronomic margins in Thompson/Flin Flon/The Pas--still, they went up 4 points, PPC went up another 4 points, and that would have brought them within 14 points of Niki.  (And it's telling how from what I can tell, this and Desnethe et al were the only Prairie seats where CPC gained over '19--though the latter no longer had incumbency to overturn.  So, "speaking of in the manner of Northern Ontario"...)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Skeena - Bulkley Valley (NDP)

And *that* might be another interesting case--that is, in a post-Nathan Cullen era, it's more vulnerable than it looks (and in a manner akin to much of Northern Ontario).

Meanwhile, Niki Ashton slid 8 points, but vs a split opposition--she could only be plausibly defeated by the Libs; and despite the FN counter-endorsement, this wasn't the election to do it. And the Cons have a fatally low ceiling, unless they rack up astronomic margins in Thompson/Flin Flon/The Pas--still, they went up 4 points, PPC went up another 4 points, and that would have brought them within 14 points of Niki.  (And it's telling how from what I can tell, this and Desnethe et al were the only Prairie seats where CPC gained over '19--though the latter no longer had incumbency to overturn.  So, "speaking of in the manner of Northern Ontario"...)

Churchill-Keewatinook is more indigenous than Skeena-Bulkley, so that probably limited the right-wing vote there.

It seems like the CPC did stronger in BC's "Reform-NDP" ridings than expected - not surprising, since they also did very well in Northern Ontario by CPC standards, and Northern Ontario is probably Ontario's answer to BC's Reform-NDP phenomenon.

[King of Kensington]

City of Toronto

Liberals  578,902  52.1%
Conservatives  263,237  23.7%
NDP  202,420  18.4%
PPC  38,153  3.4%
Greens  23,254  2.1%

[adma]

Churchill-Keewatinook is more indigenous than Skeena-Bulkley, so that probably limited the right-wing vote there.

Thus my "she could only be plausibly defeated by the Liberals" point.  But if the Cons manages Desnethe-riding-scale margins in its non-indigenous areas, and the NDP-Lib vote splits just right, who knows anymore...

[DistingFlyer]

Just over a third of ridings have validated counts now:

Lib - 53 MPs (+3), 32.1% (-0%)
Cons - 40 MPs (-3), 33.9% (+0%)
BQ - 13 MPs (+1), 8.7% (+0%)
NDP - 8 MPs (-1), 17.1% (+2%)
GP - 1 MP, 2.4% (-5%)
PPC - 4.9% (+3%)

Of 115 seats, a dozen have changed hands.

[King of Kensington]

Given the growing metropolitan/nonmetropolitan polarization, it's not surprising to see Peterborough lose its "bellwether" status - it's just less and less representative of modern-day, diverse Canada. O'Toole also represents a nearby riding.

[Joseph Cao]

Wondering if anyone knows why Chinese community swung so hard to Liberal from Tories?  Was it O'Toole's hardline on China?  Over rising anti-Asian racism (which has increased a lot due to pandemic)?  Views party wasn't strict enough on COVID?  Be interested if anyone has any insights here.

Might be too early to tell, at least as a national picture, at this stage. Ethnic Chinese communities have their cleavages like every other demographic and whatever racism-related occurrences or news about the Michaels move votes in the GTA may not do so to the same degree in Vancouver.

But on the individual riding level, it is hard not to argue that Kenny Chiu in particular was heavily targeted for C-282 and prior statements against the Chinese government. Anecdotally I've heard from a friend there that the level of hostility against him this time was concentrated heavily in WeChat groups and other online spaces vulnerable to the usual despicable conflation of anti-Chinese racism for anti-CCP statements. Riding to riding there have been indications that local pro-mainland groups threw their support unusually heavily behind the Liberals regardless of their opponent.

[adma]

Re (as I figured) weaker-than-it-looked NDP ground games, too much Jagmeetian pixie-dust smokescreen and such, this is worth reading
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-post-2021-federal-election-review-1.6187158

[adma]

Given the growing metropolitan/nonmetropolitan polarization, it's not surprising to see Peterborough lose its "bellwether" status - it's just less and less representative of modern-day, diverse Canada. O'Toole also represents a nearby riding.

Well, bellwethers were always BS--and given the popular vote vs seat-count thing, one might argue whether P'boro already defied the bellwether in the *other* direction in '19.  So, a bit of a dovetail thing.

Plus, being a big city and all, P'boro's in a fuzzy territory btw/"metropolitan" and "nonmetropolitan"--not quite a glorified-outerburb a la Barrie, but also, at least momentarily, not quite a (Trent) campussy left-nucleus a la Guelph or Kingston.  So under a different circumstance, it could have tilted (and still could, in the future) out of bellwetherdom in the *other* direction, much like another longtime bellwether, Kitchener Centre.  (And it's interesting how in *both* those ridings this time, the final outcome was affected by incumbent controversy.)

Peterborough-Kawartha is still more of a "borderline" devil than seemingly out-of-sight cases like Brantford-Brant or Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte--unless the fall of Monsef terminally pricks a bubble in the local Liberal machine (and a lot of the baked-in permanent Conservative cast to SW Ontario ridings like Brantford-Brant has at least as much to do with the atrophy of local Liberal machines--basically, they've "thrown" the ridings to the Cons, even if on paper they *shouldn't* have.)

[VPH]

re: P'boro -- I find it interesting that Bay of Quinte also flipped though. Could it be a regional thing?