2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[adma]

Liberals were also hit with a similar phenomenon in Greater Montreal. Looks like they made gains on the North Shore (where they were never going to win many seats), and the islands of Montreal and Laval (where they were always going to dominate). But the part of Greater Montreal where they could have picked up seats, the South Shore/Montérégie, swung towards the Bloc.

Though one standout deeper-shade-of-red North Shore case was Terrebonne, where the deselected Bloc incumbent ran as an independent.  (In total, there would have been a much more modest swing on the Libs behalf--and the Lib vote was basically static at just under 30%)

[adma]

Also looks like Tories despite not gaining, did see swings in their favour in parts of country they need to gain, namely Ontario, some parts of Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and even some areas in BC.  By contrast seems strongest swings away from them were Prairies where they could afford to lose lots of votes with few seats.  Interestingly enough in Ontario, race was closer than 2006 when Harper came to power and that election it was a 4.8 point spread between two parties with Liberals ahead while in 2021 it was a 4.3 spread.  Yet in 2006 it was 54 Liberals to 40 Tories out of 106 seats while in 2021 it was 37 to 77 out of 121 seats.  So seems results vote wise similar in Ontario to 2006, but Liberals way more efficient in 2021 than 2006.

Also wonder anybody have turnout numbers by riding.  Just looking at seat difference compared to vote, I cannot help but think turnout was much lower in GTA and urban ridings than rural ones so similar phenomenon to UK 2005 where Labour beat Tories by only 3%, yet got double the seats for this reason.

In Ontario, think of it as ruling-government incumbency, further urban-rural sorting (i.e. "metropolitan" seats in the outer GTA and Greater Ottawa and K-W-type places in SW Ontario being more thoroughly out of reach), the decline of the NDP and so-far lack of CPC seat gains in N Ontario, and the simple fact that there are so many more "Liberal-type" suburban seats now, thanks to population growth and thanks to the Harper-era expansion of Commons, which was supposed to work in *his* favour but didn't.

[beesley]

The largest swing was in Gatineau, at 37.8% NDP-Liberal.

The Tory swings out west were generally in NDP/Conservative ridings where the Liberals rose but stayed third.

I remember how angry the former Liberal-then NDP MP Francoise Boivin (who lost and beat the Bloc) was about that, saying that none of the work she did for her constituents mattered because she wasn't re-elected. But the large swing probably has as much to do with her smashing victory in 2011 than anything else.

[beesley]

Also looks like Tories despite not gaining, did see swings in their favour in parts of country they need to gain, namely Ontario, some parts of Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and even some areas in BC.  By contrast seems strongest swings away from them were Prairies where they could afford to lose lots of votes with few seats.  Interestingly enough in Ontario, race was closer than 2006 when Harper came to power and that election it was a 4.8 point spread between two parties with Liberals ahead while in 2021 it was a 4.3 spread.  Yet in 2006 it was 54 Liberals to 40 Tories out of 106 seats while in 2021 it was 37 to 77 out of 121 seats.  So seems results vote wise similar in Ontario to 2006, but Liberals way more efficient in 2021 than 2006.

The actual two seat loss may as well just be 'bad luck' or turnout given how close some ridings were - Kitchener-Conestoga, Trois-Rivieres etc. Though perhaps because of that triviality the narrative wouldn't have changed much at all had O'Toole got 125 seats (more than that probably requires a bit more) since it would still be close to the status quo. The only difference would be that the CPC/O'Toole camp would've heavily emphasised this.

A lot of it is just expectations - I don't think the CPC ever believed the narrative put out by some Liberals that this was a more winnable election than in 2019, and I certainly don't believe it.

[StateBoiler]

The decline of the NDP in the industrial centers of Ontario is really quite striking.  Charlie Angus down to 35%.  Third place in Nickel Belt for the first time since the 1960s.  Third place in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. The old working class "labor party" constituency has eroded.

I mean, I'm sure all the places you mentioned have changed quite a bit over the decades, but the provincial party, which is famously very competent and not at all a human disaster, still wins them all without too much trouble, so maybe, just maybe this line, which gets wheeled out every time a social democratic party does badly, does not cover all the factors involved.

And indeed, it's hard to see the *provincial* Nickel Belt falling or under threat except in a 1995 circumstance.  On such grounds, the erosion carries an aura of being not necessarily terminal--nonetheless, when it comes to all the mewling about Quebec being lost under Jagmeet, maybe more must be said about the blue-collar "red wall Labour" vote being neglected under Jagmeet.  Or as I've put it, those who want "meat and potatoes" issues addressed without arbitrary "Punjabi" stunting on behalf of the TikTok crowd...

Which ridings don't fit in with the rest?

Alexander Boulerice, 48.6%, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie, Que.
Matthew Green, 48.7%, Hamilton Centre, Ont.
Lindsay Mathyssen, 43.4%, London-Fanshawe, Ont.
Brian Masse, 44.2%, Windsor West, Ont.
Carol Hughes, 40.2%, Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, Ont.
Charlie Angus, 35.1%, Timmins-James Bay, Ont.
Niki Ashton, 42.6%, Churchill-Keewatinook Aski, Man.
Daniel Blaikie, 49.7%, Elmwood-Transcona, Man.
Leah Gazan, 50.3%, Winnipeg Centre, Man.
Blake Desjarlais, 40.5%, Edmonton Griesbach, Alb.
Heather McPherson, 60.7%, Edmonton Strathcona, Alb.
Taylor Bachrach, 42.6%, Skeena-Bulkley Valley, B.C.
Richard Cannings, 41.3%, South Okanagan-West Kootenay, B.C.
Jagmeet Singh, 40.3%, Burnaby South, B.C.
Peter Julian, 48.8%, New Westminster-Burnaby, B.C.
Bonita Zarrilo, 37.2%, Port Moody-Coquitlam, B.C.
Jenny Kwan, 56.4%, Vancouver East, B.C.
Don Davies, 52.3%, Vancouver Kingsway, B.C.
Gord Johns, 44.2%, Courtenay-Alberni, B.C.
Alistair MacGregor, 42.8%, Cowichan-Malahat-Langford, B.C.
Randall Garrison, 42.8%, Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, B.C.
Lisa Marie Barron, 28.8%, Nanaimo-Ladysmith, B.C.
Rachel Blaney, 39.6%, North Island-Powell River, B.C.
Laurel Collins, 43.9%, Victoria, B.C.
Lori Idlout, 47.9%, Nunavut

Any word on if the NDP are considering moving Federal Party Headquarters to Vancouver?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Interesting to see 13 of 25 NDP ridings are in BC, an absolute majority.
Has that ever happened before?

[DistingFlyer]

Interesting to see 13 of 25 NDP ridings are in BC, an absolute majority.
Has that ever happened before?

Yes - twice, in 1962 (10 of 19) & 1963 (9 of 17) - and it's come close a few other times (3 of 7 in 1935, 4 of 8 in 1958, 9 of 21 in 1965, 19 of 43 in 1988).

[King of Kensington]

Even with the Liberal trend in Metro Van, it's interesting to see there's a contiguous "orange corridor" running from East Van through the eastern suburbs

[mileslunn]

Also looks like Tories despite not gaining, did see swings in their favour in parts of country they need to gain, namely Ontario, some parts of Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and even some areas in BC.  By contrast seems strongest swings away from them were Prairies where they could afford to lose lots of votes with few seats.  Interestingly enough in Ontario, race was closer than 2006 when Harper came to power and that election it was a 4.8 point spread between two parties with Liberals ahead while in 2021 it was a 4.3 spread.  Yet in 2006 it was 54 Liberals to 40 Tories out of 106 seats while in 2021 it was 37 to 77 out of 121 seats.  So seems results vote wise similar in Ontario to 2006, but Liberals way more efficient in 2021 than 2006.

Also wonder anybody have turnout numbers by riding.  Just looking at seat difference compared to vote, I cannot help but think turnout was much lower in GTA and urban ridings than rural ones so similar phenomenon to UK 2005 where Labour beat Tories by only 3%, yet got double the seats for this reason.

In Ontario, think of it as ruling-government incumbency, further urban-rural sorting (i.e. "metropolitan" seats in the outer GTA and Greater Ottawa and K-W-type places in SW Ontario being more thoroughly out of reach), the decline of the NDP and so-far lack of CPC seat gains in N Ontario, and the simple fact that there are so many more "Liberal-type" suburban seats now, thanks to population growth and thanks to the Harper-era expansion of Commons, which was supposed to work in *his* favour but didn't.

True but with only a four point spread, only way I could see this happening is if turnout was much higher in rural areas than metro ones and if turnout were equal that would mean Liberals would have bigger popular vote lead.  Its not like rural Ontario Tories are running up the score like they do in Prairies.  They won those ridings but solid margins, but they aren't blowouts like in Prairies.  After all only got over 50% in 6 ridings in the entire province and that is quite a bit less than Liberals.  So that is why curious if turnout higher in rural areas and certainly possible as with pandemic people in cities perhaps more worried thus more reluctant to show up than in rural areas where people seem to be less worried about pandemic.

[adma]

Interesting to see 13 of 25 NDP ridings are in BC, an absolute majority.
Has that ever happened before?

Yes - twice, in 1962 (10 of 19) & 1963 (9 of 17) - and it's come close a few other times (3 of 7 in 1935, 4 of 8 in 1958, 9 of 21 in 1965, 19 of 43 in 1988).

Not to mention 11 of 24 in '19 when it comes to closeness.

And then when it comes to lopsidedness, 5 of 9 in '93 were in Saskatchewan.

[H. Ross Peron]

Finally, a map shaded according to the swing:

The swing map piqued my interest, especially looking at the GTA. Looks like the Conservatives did make gains in the parts of Toronto and the 905 that are considered essential to victory - Brampton, Mississauga, Oakville, Vaughan, Durham region, and most of Toronto's outer boroughs. But in a rather cruel outcome of electoral calculus, these places where they had a positive swing are the more LPC-friendly parts and their swing wasn't big enough - but the places that swung away from the Tories - Markham, Richmond Hill, and "Chinese Scarborough", swung hard, and those were the part of the GTA with a bigger Tory base to begin with.

Doesn't this imply that Tories made gains with Indian as well as white middle class voters?

[Hatman 🍁]

There was definitely an NDP-> Liberal swing among Indians in certain places, especially Brampton.

[adma]

Also looks like Tories despite not gaining, did see swings in their favour in parts of country they need to gain, namely Ontario, some parts of Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and even some areas in BC.  By contrast seems strongest swings away from them were Prairies where they could afford to lose lots of votes with few seats.  Interestingly enough in Ontario, race was closer than 2006 when Harper came to power and that election it was a 4.8 point spread between two parties with Liberals ahead while in 2021 it was a 4.3 spread.  Yet in 2006 it was 54 Liberals to 40 Tories out of 106 seats while in 2021 it was 37 to 77 out of 121 seats.  So seems results vote wise similar in Ontario to 2006, but Liberals way more efficient in 2021 than 2006.

Also wonder anybody have turnout numbers by riding.  Just looking at seat difference compared to vote, I cannot help but think turnout was much lower in GTA and urban ridings than rural ones so similar phenomenon to UK 2005 where Labour beat Tories by only 3%, yet got double the seats for this reason.

In Ontario, think of it as ruling-government incumbency, further urban-rural sorting (i.e. "metropolitan" seats in the outer GTA and Greater Ottawa and K-W-type places in SW Ontario being more thoroughly out of reach), the decline of the NDP and so-far lack of CPC seat gains in N Ontario, and the simple fact that there are so many more "Liberal-type" suburban seats now, thanks to population growth and thanks to the Harper-era expansion of Commons, which was supposed to work in *his* favour but didn't.

True but with only a four point spread, only way I could see this happening is if turnout was much higher in rural areas than metro ones and if turnout were equal that would mean Liberals would have bigger popular vote lead.  Its not like rural Ontario Tories are running up the score like they do in Prairies.  They won those ridings but solid margins, but they aren't blowouts like in Prairies.  After all only got over 50% in 6 ridings in the entire province and that is quite a bit less than Liberals.  So that is why curious if turnout higher in rural areas and certainly possible as with pandemic people in cities perhaps more worried thus more reluctant to show up than in rural areas where people seem to be less worried about pandemic.

Again, a big factor might be the most recent redistribution, which not only reflected suburban growth but was meant to give the suburbs more weight--which is how Ontario leapt from 106 to 121 seats, a outsize "redistribution bump" intended to avoid monstrosities like the former Oak Ridges-Markham.  Because when all is said and done, the Cons only had a net drop of 3 seats from '06.

'06 Con seats which are (or their equivalents are) no longer Con:  St. Catharines, Halton, Burlington, Milton, Cambridge, Kitchener-Conestoga, Whitby-Oshawa, Carleton-Mississippi Mills, Ottawa West-Nepean, Ottawa-Orleans, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell.  Present Con seats which weren't Con in '06:  Huron-Bruce, Brantford-Brant, Thornhill, Kenora--and I suppose King-Vaughan as the spawn of former Liberal seats.  And added seats in the Barrie and Quinte areas, and I have to figure what else there might be...

[Geoffrey Howe]

Not sure why I never made a swing map for 2015 since I did one for 2019 & 2021 (see above post), but decided to fix that oversight:



The largest swing was in Gatineau, at 37.8% NDP-Liberal.

The Tory swings out west were generally in NDP/Conservative ridings where the Liberals rose but stayed third.

Why the Tory swing around Quebec?

[mileslunn]

Also looks like Tories despite not gaining, did see swings in their favour in parts of country they need to gain, namely Ontario, some parts of Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and even some areas in BC.  By contrast seems strongest swings away from them were Prairies where they could afford to lose lots of votes with few seats.  Interestingly enough in Ontario, race was closer than 2006 when Harper came to power and that election it was a 4.8 point spread between two parties with Liberals ahead while in 2021 it was a 4.3 spread.  Yet in 2006 it was 54 Liberals to 40 Tories out of 106 seats while in 2021 it was 37 to 77 out of 121 seats.  So seems results vote wise similar in Ontario to 2006, but Liberals way more efficient in 2021 than 2006.

Also wonder anybody have turnout numbers by riding.  Just looking at seat difference compared to vote, I cannot help but think turnout was much lower in GTA and urban ridings than rural ones so similar phenomenon to UK 2005 where Labour beat Tories by only 3%, yet got double the seats for this reason.

In Ontario, think of it as ruling-government incumbency, further urban-rural sorting (i.e. "metropolitan" seats in the outer GTA and Greater Ottawa and K-W-type places in SW Ontario being more thoroughly out of reach), the decline of the NDP and so-far lack of CPC seat gains in N Ontario, and the simple fact that there are so many more "Liberal-type" suburban seats now, thanks to population growth and thanks to the Harper-era expansion of Commons, which was supposed to work in *his* favour but didn't.

True but with only a four point spread, only way I could see this happening is if turnout was much higher in rural areas than metro ones and if turnout were equal that would mean Liberals would have bigger popular vote lead.  Its not like rural Ontario Tories are running up the score like they do in Prairies.  They won those ridings but solid margins, but they aren't blowouts like in Prairies.  After all only got over 50% in 6 ridings in the entire province and that is quite a bit less than Liberals.  So that is why curious if turnout higher in rural areas and certainly possible as with pandemic people in cities perhaps more worried thus more reluctant to show up than in rural areas where people seem to be less worried about pandemic.

Again, a big factor might be the most recent redistribution, which not only reflected suburban growth but was meant to give the suburbs more weight--which is how Ontario leapt from 106 to 121 seats, a outsize "redistribution bump" intended to avoid monstrosities like the former Oak Ridges-Markham.  Because when all is said and done, the Cons only had a net drop of 3 seats from '06.

'06 Con seats which are (or their equivalents are) no longer Con:  St. Catharines, Halton, Burlington, Milton, Cambridge, Kitchener-Conestoga, Whitby-Oshawa, Carleton-Mississippi Mills, Ottawa West-Nepean, Ottawa-Orleans, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell.  Present Con seats which weren't Con in '06:  Huron-Bruce, Brantford-Brant, Thornhill, Kenora--and I suppose King-Vaughan as the spawn of former Liberal seats.  And added seats in the Barrie and Quinte areas, and I have to figure what else there might be...

Even then still double seats with only 4 point difference points to huge voter efficiency.  My guess is lower turnout in Liberal ridings than Conservative ones as only other way this happens is if votes evenly spread out like PEI or if Tories were running up margins in ridings they won and on balance Tory wins weren't exactly that much larger than Liberal ones were.  Both had strongholds and more mixed.

I am thinking it was more like UK 2005 where Labour only beat Tories by 3 points but got double seats and big reason was turnout was higher in Tory ridings than Labour.  Due to re-alignment that is no longer an issue in UK as Tories now winning many of those former Labour strongholds with low turnouts and Labour doing better in more middle class urban areas.

[StateBoiler]

Even with the Liberal trend in Metro Van, it's interesting to see there's a contiguous "orange corridor" running from East Van through the eastern suburbs

Yeah, they have as many members of Parliament from Vancouver Island as they do Ontario.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/MaBlaisMorin/status/1445846284573630467?t=J0zW3lkx5Dbv_KpBVj...

The Liberals have held onto Chateuguay-Lacolle after a recount. So not a single seat changed hands in Quebec! Extraordinary.

[lilTommy]

https://twitter.com/MaBlaisMorin/status/1445846284573630467?t=J0zW3lkx5Dbv_KpBVj...

The Liberals have held onto Chateuguay-Lacolle after a recount. So not a single seat changed hands in Quebec! Extraordinary.

So just the one more recount then? in Davenport

[Hatman 🍁]

The last time not a single seat in Quebec changed hands in an election was 1926.

[adma]

Why the Tory swing around Quebec?

Because when it came to post-Orange Crush dynamics, the Conservatives, and not the Liberals, were already positioned as the default alternative in most of the Capitale-Nationale (w/the exception of Louis-Hebert and Quebec)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Finally, a map shaded according to the swing:

The swing map piqued my interest, especially looking at the GTA. Looks like the Conservatives did make gains in the parts of Toronto and the 905 that are considered essential to victory - Brampton, Mississauga, Oakville, Vaughan, Durham region, and most of Toronto's outer boroughs. But in a rather cruel outcome of electoral calculus, these places where they had a positive swing are the more LPC-friendly parts and their swing wasn't big enough - but the places that swung away from the Tories - Markham, Richmond Hill, and "Chinese Scarborough", swung hard, and those were the part of the GTA with a bigger Tory base to begin with.

Doesn't this imply that Tories made gains with Indian as well as white middle class voters?

Kinda. White middle class, definitely they made gains. Indian/South Asian voters seems like more of a mixed bag. The classic example of an Indian ethnoburb is Brampton, and it did trend Tory but barely - although Surrey, the BC equivalent of Brampton, trended Liberal like the rest of Metro Van. Mississauga, Oakville, Pickering, and Ajax also have a significant South Asian presence, and those trended CPC quite clearly - though unlike Brampton and Surrey, those places are also home to large numbers of white middle-class voters who may have had more of an effect in that direction. Milton was the black sheep of middle-class South Asian suburbia, trending Liberal (probably owing to rapid population growth). South Asian voters within the 416 didn't show any significant shift. Etobicoke North went more Tory, but the non-Chinese parts of Scarborough didn't swing.

In any case, whatever gains they made with white middle-class and South Asian voters in Ontario, it was too little. Scheer was terrible with both groups, so the CPC was starting from a bad place.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Why the Tory swing around Quebec?

Because when it came to post-Orange Crush dynamics, the Conservatives, and not the Liberals, were already positioned as the default alternative in most of the Capitale-Nationale (w/the exception of Louis-Hebert and Quebec)

I imagine it also has to do with ground game. The Capitale-Nationale/Chaudières-Appalaches/Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean belt is where Tories have a pre-existing base, so it would make sense if they put in a lot more effort there than, say, Greater Montreal where apart from a few Anglo suburbs they're lucky to keep their deposit.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Why the Tory swing around Quebec?

Because when it came to post-Orange Crush dynamics, the Conservatives, and not the Liberals, were already positioned as the default alternative in most of the Capitale-Nationale (w/the exception of Louis-Hebert and Quebec)

I imagine it also has to do with ground game. The Capitale-Nationale/Chaudières-Appalaches/Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean belt is where Tories have a pre-existing base, so it would make sense if they put in a lot more effort there than, say, Greater Montreal where apart from a few Anglo suburbs they're lucky to keep their deposit.

I get that the Quebec City area and Chaudières-Appalaches are pretty well-suited to them, but I'll admit that I'm not really sure what Tory strength around Saguenay specifically is based on.

[DistingFlyer]

Not sure how long it's been since a recount actually changed a result (1988 maybe, though there've probably been others since then); Trois-Rivieres is still to complete its recount, and Nunavut has yet to publish a validated result. Can't remember how long it took Nunavut to do that two years ago, though I do remember it was the last one then too.

Neither Davenport nor Brome - Missisquoi are listed yet on the Elections Canada recount page, though I imagine they'll pop up soon.

[Benjamin Frank]

Not sure how long it's been since a recount actually changed a result (1988 maybe, though there've probably been others since then); Trois-Rivieres is still to complete its recount, and Nunavut has yet to publish a validated result. Can't remember how long it took Nunavut to do that two years ago, though I do remember it was the last one then too.

Neither Davenport nor Brome - Missisquoi are listed yet on the Elections Canada recount page, though I imagine they'll pop up soon.

Elections Canada said it was the first time since 2008 that a judicial recount has changed the result of an election. Spokesperson Natasha Gauthier said “human error” resulted in incorrectly recording the count from one box of advance poll ballots. The error had 396 Liberal votes mistakenly recorded as NDP votes, while 70 votes for the NDP candidate were mistakenly attributed to Shanahan.

https://montrealgazette.com/news/national/election-2021/recount-gives-chateauguay-lacolle-to-liberals-by-12-votes

Don't know if this was mentioned here or not, but the Charleswood... riding in Winnipeg was won by the Conservatives by 460 votes in the end, after the Conservative led by just 24 votes in the preliminary count.  There was a similar error to the one in Chateauguay...

"One error caught in the validation process was a transcription error that involved results written out by hand, Gauthier added." 

https://globalnews.ca/news/8226655/charleswood-st-james-headingley-assiniboia-marty-morantz-doug-eyolfson/

There might have been a similar mistake made in Davenport.  It seems Elections Canada workers had some unfortunate problems due to this unnecessary Covid election.