2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[mileslunn]

Anyone have list of all the ridings where they've completed mail in count?  Also be curious if much has changed as just glancing at a few it seems they didn't change much, but probably mostly counted those with fewer mail in so maybe bigger changes in those with more.  Although it seems outside BC (where over 20% of mail-in ballots were from) ridings with highest numbers mostly urban core that tend to go solidly Liberal anyways so may help Liberal overall numbers (doubt they win popular vote though) while on seats I suspect only a handful change of really close ones.

Anyways it looks like Liberal vote is super efficient.  Not just nationally but even in provinces.  In Ontario, Liberal lead was cut in half and only around 4 points, yet few seats changed and got almost double the number of seats Tories did.  Unlike nationally where some logic due to astronomical margins of Tories in Prairies, this seems puzzling as Tories may dominate Rural Ontario, but they aren't blowout margins like Prairies.  Only possibility I can think of is higher turnout in rural ridings than urban thus skewing it.  BC another example as Liberals came in third in votes, but first in seats while Tories exact reverse. 

As for PPC denying Tories a win, I think they hurt them, but I suspect a good chunk of PPC voters probably would have just stayed home and not vote at all if PPC didn't exist.  Never mind most of their double digit showings were largely in Tory held ridings anyways so pushed margins up but not seats.  In fact CPC + PPC is not far off what Harper got in 2011 but much less efficient.  Still it does seem one province where may have had a big impact is Ontario as most of the ridings where CPC + PPC exceed winner are in Ontario.  Interestingly enough, almost all are outside GTA as they did not do well in GTA but were strongest in Southwestern Ontario and Northern Ontario, so sort of the blue collar areas.  Strong parallels to areas Trump gained in Rust Belt and places in UK that voted heavily Leave in Brexit.  In fact despite poor Tory showing in Ontario, looks like CPC + PPC will end up around 40% there which for right is actually not bad, but again mostly in wrong places.

Another interesting fact is Alberta is where Tories saw biggest drop in popular vote and is probably main reason O'Toole's share of popular vote will be slightly below Scheer's.  There went down 14 points and while some went to PPC and Maverick party, it seems a sizeable portion went for NDP or Liberals.  Most likely the Kenney effect based on pandemic and his extreme unpopularity.  In theory this should have made Tory vote more efficient nationally as they can drop a lot in Alberta without losing many seats.

[mileslunn]

Just checking results so far, it seems Tories in both GTA and GVRD closed the gap slightly but not enough to flip seats in the more white ones (Newmarket-Aurora, Mississauga-Lakeshore, Oakville, Burlington etc) and it wouldn't require that big a shift to flip those.  On other hand it appears amongst visible minorities party went backwards and did worse than Scheer or Harper 2015.  This is especially true in ridings with large Chinese community which was one minority group Scheer was competitive amongst.  Big reason they lost both Richmond seats in BC and Markham-Unionville.  Any thoughts on why O'Toole did so poorly with visible minorities?  When comparing Ford's 2018 #'s to O'Toole's 2021 gap in largely white ridings is small and if you add PPC usually within a few points.  But in heavily minority ridings, many of those Ford was getting double or triple what O'Toole was.  Examples of this are Etobicoke North, Scarborough-Agincourt, Markham-Thornhill, Scarborough North, and Scarborough-Rouge Park.  All I believe over 70% visible minority and all one's O'Toole bombed badly yet Ford except last one won quite handily. 

For the Chinese community, wonder if O'Toole's hardline against China hurt him or perhaps just rise in anti-Asian racism.  For visible minorities in general, my thinking is many lean conservative on issues but due to fact far too many politicians on right are racist, they are reluctant to vote for parties on right until they are comfortable with leader and knew them well.  Ford due to his previous involvement municipally was very well known and had strong connections with most communities.  By contrast O'Toole was largely a blank and due to pandemic really had no opportunity to introduce himself thus many chose to play it safe and go Liberal.  It does seem the racial gap in voting is wider than in recent elections as Canada unlike US has tended to have much smaller gap.  Haven't seen exit polls yet but guessing Liberals won visible minorities by pretty large margin, probably well into 40s, maybe near 50% while Tories probably struggled to get 25%.  In fact I would venture to guess in Ontario and English Canada CPC + PPC was probably close to or over 50% amongst white males.

Certainly Tories absolutely must do better with non-whites to have a chance, but as Ford and Harper in 2011 showed it can be done and is not impossible.

[mileslunn]

Sorry for multiple posts, but seems Liberals and NDP really struggling rural Canada.  Yes won a few seats but even ones they won were way closer than usual.  Charlie Angus won by a rather small margin while rural Newfoundland which was where Liberals had best numbers in 2011 and 2015 was quite competitive.  Total flip of early part of this century where Tories dominated St. John's, Liberals rural parts whereas now Tories irrelevant in St. John's (NDP/Liberal) while rural Newfoundland quite competitive. 

This is something that all parties need to address.  More live in cities than rural areas thus advantage for Liberals, but just as Tories cannot win without gaining in GTA or GVRD, Liberals will find winning a majority likely challenging if they are getting shut out of smaller communities and limited to large metro areas.  You can win a minority on large metro areas only, but a majority requires winning some smaller communities.  And never mind divide just problematic in mistrust of each other too.

It seems NDP largely confined to rural ridings with large aboriginal populations and a few northern blue collar ones but even those like North Island-Powell River, Skeena-Bulkley Valley or Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing were much closer than in past.  Liberals seemed to only maintain their strength in Francophone rural areas outside Quebec which they are still winning by large margins and no real tightening.

For Tories, Calgary, Regina, and Saskatoon and maybe Barrie if you want to stretch it only large cities they did well in.  Did alright in Edmonton and Quebec City while in Toronto and Vancouver, pretty much pushed all the way out to the exurbs winning exurbs but near shut out of suburbs.

[mileslunn]

Looking through results noticed a few observations:

1.  Rural areas becoming even more right wing.  In Atlantic Canada, massive swing from 2015 to 2021 in rural areas even those Liberals held.  By contrast urban ridings in Atlantic Canada saw Tories stay at rock bottom 2015 levels.  Since Atlantic Canada is most rural part of country, that may explain why early returns suggested a good night for Tories, but it was not.  In Ontario and West unlike Atlantic Canada, Tories already held most rural ridings so doing better there wouldn't net them new seats unlike in Atlantic Canada.

2.  Quebec seemed to have lots of strategic voting in rural Quebec.  The Blue wall where Tories won seats were quite impressive, in fact Megantic-L'Erable was second best showing for them outside Prairies (Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies was first and that includes Peace River which is for all intensive purposes Prairies), but their support plummeted outside that with BQ surging so I doubt next riding over changed much.  More likely many BQ supporter in Quebec City region strategically voted Tory while areas further West and further East, many Tories strategically voted BQ.  CAQ coalition is more or less BQ + CPC voters.  It seems in Quebec unlike 90s, divide is primarily urban vs. rural with Liberals strong with urban Francophones but very weak with rural Francophones.

3.  In Ontario, O'Toole generally tightened the gap in largely white suburbs although not enough to win but seems he made some gains amongst moderate whites.  But in ridings with large visible minority populations, he went backwards.  This was especially true in areas with a large Chinese population

4.  CPC + PPC combined vote was similar to Ford PCs in 2018 and outside minority-majority ridings was usually fairly close.  But in ones that are overwhelmingly non-white, Ford did significantly better.  Scarborough North probably best example of this where Doug Ford got 50%, but O'Toole only 21% to 66% for LPC.  This suggests Tories can win amongst minorities, but a lot are still skeptical of party.  My thinking is Ford was well known in minority communities whereas O'Toole is not and fear party is racist still runs deep, but if leader is well known they can win over conservative minded visible minorities, but if not they play it safe and stick with devil they know.  I almost wonder if keeping Ford silent was a mistake.  He wouldn't have helped in most of province, but may have helped party do better in ethnic communities.

5.  Alberta saw biggest drop in Conservative support thanks to Jason Kenney.  But went in different directions showing just how difficult it will be for UCP.  In Rural Alberta, almost all the drop in Tory support went to PPC and Maverick Party whereas in Calgary and Edmonton it went mostly to NDP or Liberals.  This suggests much of Rural Alberta feels Kenney not right wing enough whereas two cities feel he is too right wing thus real challenge for party.

6.  Despite better splits on left, Tories did even worse in GVRD than GTA in terms of votes.  It seems in last decade GVRD has seen a massive shift left and unlike GTA where Ontario PCs succeeded recently, there is no equivalent provincially.  BC Liberals 2013 was last time a centre-right party did well in Lower Mainland.

7.  Chinese-Canadians which were one minority group Scheer did well amongst really swung hard against Tories and cost them four seats.  Be interested if anyone knows why?

8.  PPC didn't cost Tories election as their strongest support was mostly in ridings Tories won.

9.  In Ontario, where splits most problematic (after all CPC + PPC got more votes than LPC in the province and combined right cracked 40% mark, which is actually pretty good for the right there), PPC was strongest in Southwestern Ontario and Northern Ontario.  Former is a Tory stronghold, but latter is not.  More importantly PPC did not do well in GTA which cost Tories election, but didn't either in Eastern Ontario outside Ottawa and Central Ontario where Tories did well.  It seems PPC support was strongest in areas that have struggled most with deindustrialization (shades of Brexit or Trump) and biggest correlation in Ontario was PPC strongest in areas that have seen biggest economic decline irrespective of whether they were right or left leaning areas.  Otherwise appealed to disillusioned angry voters.

10.  NDP it appears underperformed largely due to some particularly in Ontario at last minute breaking for Liberals to block Tory win.  Its likely this not only cost NDP seats, but probably cost Tories a number of seats too.  This is a problem for NDP as their best opportunity for gains is when either a Tory win is a foregone conclusion or they are not a threat.  And that is something party has no control over.

[mileslunn]

Just realized only one seat out of 78 flipped in Quebec.  Amazing given how volatile Quebec has been last few election cycles. 

Kinda goes with the election in general. Still sad about REB not winning though.

Possibly calm before the storm.  In 2008, only 4 ridings flipped, but in 2011 58 out of 75 flipped.  So Quebec is unpredictable but when they swing, tend to swing hard.

[mileslunn]

Wondering if anyone knows why Chinese community swung so hard from Liberal to Tories?  Was it O'Toole's hardline on China?  Over rising anti-Asian racism (which has increased a lot due to pandemic)?  Views party wasn't strict enough on COVID?  Be interested if anyone has any insights here.

[mileslunn]

Only 16-17 ridings look set to change hands in this election.
Is that some kind of record?

I think so, certainly in my 40 years of life it is the fewest but not sure about earlier elections.  I know provincially we've had ones like this.  BC 2005 and BC 2009 had few changes in seats and Ontario 2003 and Ontario 2007 were pretty similar so more common provincially but rare federally.

[mileslunn]

9.  In Ontario, where splits most problematic (after all CPC + PPC got more votes than LPC in the province and combined right cracked 40% mark, which is actually pretty good for the right there), PPC was strongest in Southwestern Ontario and Northern Ontario.  Former is a Tory stronghold, but latter is not.  More importantly PPC did not do well in GTA which cost Tories election, but didn't either in Eastern Ontario outside Ottawa and Central Ontario where Tories did well.  It seems PPC support was strongest in areas that have struggled most with deindustrialization (shades of Brexit or Trump) and biggest correlation in Ontario was PPC strongest in areas that have seen biggest economic decline irrespective of whether they were right or left leaning areas.  Otherwise appealed to disillusioned angry voters.

Northern Ontario's actually an interesting case, and rudiments of this "swing to the right" were already evident in '19--this time, all but 3 Northern ridings saw CPC + PPC on top.  (And of the remaining 3, said "united right" was less than a point short in Sudbury, 4 points short in Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, and only in TBSN were they safely double-digits behind.)

Rural Newfoundland and Cape Breton Island also saw CPC do surprisingly well even better than Harper in 2011 majority although PPC not so well so I think the urban/rural split becoming more entrenched.  Good news for Liberals in terms of winning an election as more live in metro areas than outside but bad news if you want to get a majority.  It will be interesting to see polls in mixed urban/rural ridings.  I kind of have a feeling in ones like Fredericton and Peterborough-Kawartha it was city that saved Liberals in first and rural parts that cost the min latter.

[mileslunn]

Obviously not every PPC vote would have gone Tory had there been no candidate, but here are the ridings where the PPC vote was greater than the margin by which the Tory candidate lost (if you like, the maximum number of seats that the PPC could have 'cost' the Tories):

Nova Scotia
Sydney - Victoria (Liberal)

Quebec
Trois-Rivieres (Bloc)

Ontario
Aurora - Oak Ridges - Richmond Hill (Liberal)
Cambridge (Liberal)
Kitchener South - Hespeler (Liberal)
Kitchener - Conestoga (Liberal)
London West (Liberal)
Niagara Centre (Liberal)
Nickel Belt (Liberal) (Conservatives third)
Nipissing - Timiskaming (Liberal)
Sault Ste. Marie (Liberal)
St. Catharines (Liberal)
Thunder Bay - Rainy River (Liberal)
Timmins - James Bay (NDP)
Windsor - Tecumseh (Liberal)

Alberta
Edmonton Centre (Liberal)
Edmonton Griesbach (NDP)

British Columbia
Cloverdale - Langley City (Liberal)
Nanaimo - Ladysmith (NDP)
North Island - Powell River (NDP)
Richmond Centre (Liberal)
Skeena - Bulkley Valley (NDP)
South Okanagan - West Kootenay (NDP)


That's a total of sixteen Liberal, six NDP & one Bloc riding, so even if every PPC voter had gone Tory instead, giving the Tories a popular vote lead of 39% to 33%, the Liberals would still have elected more MPs (143 to 142).

Seems a lot were your blue collar types that don't traditionally go Conservative.  But not a total surprise.  For all O'Toole's appeal to blue collar workers, I think PPC was able to do well there as many are upset and PPC largely fed off anger.  You saw same with Brexit as best results were often northern Labour seats and many of the biggest swings to Trump were likewise blue collar areas in Midwest.

[mileslunn]

Given the growing metropolitan/nonmetropolitan polarization, it's not surprising to see Peterborough lose its "bellwether" status - it's just less and less representative of modern-day, diverse Canada. O'Toole also represents a nearby riding.

Well, bellwethers were always BS--and given the popular vote vs seat-count thing, one might argue whether P'boro already defied the bellwether in the *other* direction in '19.  So, a bit of a dovetail thing.

Plus, being a big city and all, P'boro's in a fuzzy territory btw/"metropolitan" and "nonmetropolitan"--not quite a glorified-outerburb a la Barrie, but also, at least momentarily, not quite a (Trent) campussy left-nucleus a la Guelph or Kingston.  So under a different circumstance, it could have tilted (and still could, in the future) out of bellwetherdom in the *other* direction, much like another longtime bellwether, Kitchener Centre.  (And it's interesting how in *both* those ridings this time, the final outcome was affected by incumbent controversy.)

Peterborough-Kawartha is still more of a "borderline" devil than seemingly out-of-sight cases like Brantford-Brant or Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte--unless the fall of Monsef terminally pricks a bubble in the local Liberal machine (and a lot of the baked-in permanent Conservative cast to SW Ontario ridings like Brantford-Brant has at least as much to do with the atrophy of local Liberal machines--basically, they've "thrown" the ridings to the Cons, even if on paper they *shouldn't* have.)

Sarnia-Lambton was a bellwether until 2015, but now it is a solid Conservative riding.  It is very much a rust belt though so following similar patterns to places in Midwest that Democrats used to do well in, but now solidly GOP.

[mileslunn]

I think you're right that the bulk of the LPC base in Belleville is probably more "white-collar Laurentian" than "working-class small town" at this point. I was thinking more 2015 when it seemed like class was a major dividing point. More well-off parts of the GTA (along with ethnic factors for the Chinese and Jewish votes in some ridings) had a great Tory showing in 2015 - note how Eglinton-Lawrence was the CPC's second-best 416 riding, probably a combination of the Jewish vote, Joe Oliver, and the wealthy demographic. Meanwhile, more rugged smaller cities in Southern Ontario went hard for the LPC.

In a convoluted way, that echoes the S Ontario "free trade populism" patterns in 1988--the strongest (i.e. clear majority) Tory places tended to be well-heeled GTA seats, while it was in the heartland that the Libs scored most of their upsets and near-upsets.  (Which might also have been a last gasp of the Robarts/Davis-era "Big Blue Machine" dynamic, where the Tories were the urban cosmopolitans and seemingly to the left of the rural/small-town-based Liberals.)

True, although it seems in GTA the more white upper middle class areas Tories improved and while fell short they did better in those than more working class diverse areas.  Eglinton-Lawrence, Don Valley West, Mississauga-Lakeshore, Oakville, and Burlington all examples of this.  By contrast Ford may have won most of those but underperformed and did better more in the diverse working class areas.  Etobicoke North, Scarborough North just two examples of areas Ford won massively in, but O'Toole got clobbered in.  Even in Mississauga, O'Toole's best riding was Mississauga-Lakeshore while in last Ontario election, that was the best one for OLP and closest.  So perhaps O'Toole's moderation did help him with upper middle class whites but not enough to flip ridings and also with GTA being very diverse unlike in 80s so Tories need to find a way to do better with visible minorities if they wish to breakthrough in the GTA.

[mileslunn]

True, although it seems in GTA the more white upper middle class areas Tories improved and while fell short they did better in those than more working class diverse areas.  Eglinton-Lawrence, Don Valley West, Mississauga-Lakeshore, Oakville, and Burlington all examples of this.  By contrast Ford may have won most of those but underperformed and did better more in the diverse working class areas.  Etobicoke North, Scarborough North just two examples of areas Ford won massively in, but O'Toole got clobbered in.  Even in Mississauga, O'Toole's best riding was Mississauga-Lakeshore while in last Ontario election, that was the best one for OLP and closest.  So perhaps O'Toole's moderation did help him with upper middle class whites but not enough to flip ridings and also with GTA being very diverse unlike in 80s so Tories need to find a way to do better with visible minorities if they wish to breakthrough in the GTA.

It's worth noting that in the 2014 provincial election, the Tim Hudak PCs got clobbered for their promise to kill civil service jobs--but where *they* improved their lot (and again, not enough to win) was in "monied" neighbourhoods; so a riding like Etobicoke Centre had more of an emphatic "blue donut hole" than it did in '11...

My guess is taxes.  With huge deficit, most with money figure they are on the firing line for higher taxes.  True Liberal platform only promised to limit deductions on high earners, not raise rates, but many probably figure they will get hit with higher rates and also won't just be those in top bracket (who aren't large enough anywhere to really swing any ridings) but probably top three brackets and in those ridings you have lots in the 26% bracket.  Also perhaps fear of a home equity tax too even though Liberals have repeatedly ruled it out, nonetheless those who are home owners might worry about it especially if property has high value as opposed to renters who won't care.

[mileslunn]

Will we ever see a coalition in canada

Never say never, but we don't have a history of it so unlikely.  More like a supply and confidence where an opposition party promises to vote with government on all confidence matters like NDP-Green in BC 2017 or Liberal-NDP one in Ontario 1985, but is free to vote differently on individual legislation that is not a confidence matter and for those government relies on different parties for different issues.

[mileslunn]

I think getting a majority for any party is a challenge but slightly easier for Liberals than Tories.  For Liberals their real problem is they are too much a big city party and while most Canadians live in urban areas, if you are being strongly rejected throughout much of rural Canada it means you have little room of error.

For Tories, unless they can breakthrough in Quebec, getting a majority will be very tough.  Metro areas are swinging left and while no doubt Tories in a better election can win some suburbs, not sure they can get back to Harper 2011 levels in GTA or GVRD.  Now if Liberals imploded and fall to third, that makes path somewhat easier as it seems 905 prefers Liberals over Tories, but will take Tories over NDP.  At same time rural Quebec does seem somewhat centre-right so probably their best path to a majority is yes win 905 belt but probably not a sweep, just majority of seats there, but also breakthrough in rural Quebec.  So do worse in suburbs than 2011 although better than 2021 while pick up 20 rural Quebec seats.  Not an easy path, but I think that one is more feasible than try to replicate Harper map of 2011.  Also Northern Ontario and remaining rural Atlantic ridings (like Cape Breton Island and rural Newfoundland) I would probably add as those seem to be having favourable swings to right even where Tories fell short. 

At same time I think for 905 to go Tory, they need to gain an extra 5%, but also need NDP to gain an extra 5% too as in most 905 ridings their ceiling is probably low 40s (42-43%) meaning if NDP is too weak, won't be enough to win.

For Liberals, both good and bad news.  Good news is their vote was extremely efficient and with more Canadians living in cities that works in their favour.  Bad news is not a lot of close ridings they can easily flip back, while a 5% drop would cause them to lose a whole whack of ridings.  Liberals otherwise have a higher ceiling in both votes and seats than do Tories, but a lower floor too.  Tories even in worse case scenario still have around 80 seats locked up and would have to be a very bad election to fall below 100 seats.  By contrast Liberals could get as high as 200 seats in a good election, but if bottom fell out from under easily fall below 50 seats.

NDP needs to focus more on urban areas with lots of people under 40 is where I think their potential is.  Repeating what Layton did in 2011 in Quebec seems very unlikely.  Many rural Quebec ridings he won went CAQ so are not natural NDP ones.  And likewise even GTA despite being solid red, 2018 provincially and 2011 federally suggest 416 suburbs and 905 belt are more centrist thus went Tory while downtown Toronto is very left wing.  GVRD unlike GTA looks a bit better for NDP as they are more competitive in suburbs and provincially dominated them in 2020.  Even in Alberta, if there was more strategic voting, I think Edmonton could go largely NDP like it does provincially but obviously tough as need Liberals to fall to really low levels and also need Tories to stay at current levels and I somehow suspect that by next election Kenney will be gone so that should help Tories rebound somewhat in Alberta. 

Greens, no idea what their future holds in store.  Climate change is becoming a bigger and bigger issue which should help, but at same time with all the infighting and already two other progressive parties, not sure much room for them.

PPC I think likely fizzles out as most of their support was over opposition to vaccines and vaccine mandates and by next election good chance that is not an issue.  Still right wing populism is very unpredictable and understanding where they draw votes from and where could lose to is not easy.  Contrary to what some think, not all PPC votes came from Tories.  Many were from traditional non-voters and even some on left who opposed vaccines swung PPC just over that issue.  In Rural Prairies, rise in PPC almost perfectly mirrored Tory drop so yes likely came form them.  But in Northern Ontario, Tory vote went up yet PPC had some of their best showings in province there so suggests most of their votes there came from elsewhere.  No whether Tories can win those over or not hard to say.  Looking across Atlantic gives some clues.  Theresa May in 2017 failed to win over a large chunk of UKIP vote in 2015, but Boris Johnson in 2019 won over many.  In fact a lot of Labour-Tory switchers in 2019 voted UKIP in 2015 so that makes me think right Tory leader and platform could win them over, but not automatic. 

[mileslunn]

For visible minority votes, it does seem Tories went backwards although Chinese was strongest swing.  They were already struggling with South Asians and looks like outside Alberta, 2015 was big drop there and has levelled off since but not rebounded.  By contrast Chinese community was likely only visible minority group Scheer won and also likely being in the 40s, there was more room for support to fall there than South Asians where support was down in 20s.  

Our polls don't give them, but would be interested in how big racial divide was in voting.  While not certain, I am guessing, Tories got around 25% amongst visible minorities, while amongst whites, probably 37-38%.  In Ontario I would venture to guess Tories got close to 40% maybe slightly more of white voters while Liberals probably in low 30s, but just a guess.  Of white males, I suspect CPC + PPC was probably just north of 50% in Ontario.  In some ways starting to see divide similar to US although not quite as bad whereas when Harper won his majority and even 2015, the racial divide much smaller and most of the difference could be chalked up to rural vs. urban split.  

New Brunswick also seems to have a bigger Anglophone vs. Francophone divide.  Excluding Halifax and St. John's which were worst showings for Tories in Atlantic Canada, their best rural showings where rural Anglophone ridings in New Brunswick, but worst showings in rural areas outside Quebec where rural Francophone ridings in New Brunswick.

Other divide is age and gender and my understanding is Tories had a pretty solid lead amongst males, Liberals ahead amongst females and Tories sub 30, but NDP also higher here.  By age I believe, seniors were best demographic for both Tories and Liberals while NDP skewed heavily young.  BQ also skewed older.  PPC I believe was strongest amongst males under 40 without a post secondary degree.

[mileslunn]

Economist Mike Moffatt has been breaking down the election results by urban/rural and everything in between on Twitter. 

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1442972922281218064

There are other similar tweets if you check his twitter feed. For disclosure:  I believe Moffatt has done consulting work for the federal Liberals, but this seems to be strictly empirical.

Dense urban almost all in Montreal, Toronto, or Vancouver so not surprising strong left wing tilt.

Urban was more smaller cities, but Calgary being included probably skewed Tories upward a bit as despite drop there, it was still by far their best urban showing, even more so than Regina and Saskatoon.  

Suburbs look awful for Tories, but remember that includes Quebec where Tory support close to 10% so in Ontario and BC probably Liberals ahead but Tories in 35-37% range, not 31%.

Exurban actually includes what many of us think of as being rural ridings in Southern Ontario and Southwestern Quebec.  35% seems low for Tories, but my guess is Quebec dragging it down where Tories did horrible here, but in Ontario I am guessing Tory support north of 40%.  

Rural may seem low for Tories, but includes Atlantic Canada where yes Tories saw biggest gains in support, but was still quite competitive.  Also includes Quebec where outside Quebec City region, most went for BQ.  Likewise in BC was probably close NDP/CPC race as most in this category were Vancouver Island and Okanagan Valley and former going NDP latter CPC.

Remote when I think of ridings that are truly remote I would have thought went NDP or Liberals.  But most Prairie ridings due to low population density as well as BC Interior were counted as remote thus why Tories strongest here despite poor showing in northern ridings.

I've found on population density, over 3,000 people per sq. km (large urban cores) are most left wing.  

1,000 to 3,000 (mid sized city cores and close by suburbs of big three), NDP tends to struggle here while Liberals dominate, but Tories in good election can win here but normally outside Alberta don't.

500 - 1,000 (smaller cities and typical suburban ridings) is generally your bellwether for who wins or not.

100 - 500 (usually have a small city with some rural or on urban/rural fringe) lean Tory in Ontario and West while BQ in Quebec but somewhat competitive.

10 - 100 (usually tends to be predominately farmland with lots of small towns close by) is Tory but usually only around 50% mark, not blowouts while BQ or Tory in Quebec depending on proximity to Quebec City and Liberal/Tory in Atlantic Canada.

1-10 (usually either farmland with gigantic farms and few settlements like Prairies or mostly mountainous with larger towns in BC) is generally where you see right wing blowouts.

By contrast under 1 person per square km (almost always forest or tundra and mining or forestry not agriculture tend to dominate here) tend to go mostly NDP or Liberal but that doesn't have its own category.  

[mileslunn]

Final post for me right now,

The NDP is being squeezed in that their seats are concentrated in British Columbia (13/25.) In Ontario NDP support has gone from 16.0% in 2015 to 16.8 to 17.9 as their seat count has declined from 8 in 2015 to 6 to 5. The problem for the NDP in Ontario is that everywhere they have concentrated support, the Liberals do as well.  

The NDP seems to be safer in Winnipeg where their seats are more 'working class' like Vancouver East, but even in British Columbia, leader Jagmeet Singh won only 40-30% over his Liberal opponent and Vancouver-Kingsway (Don Davies) and Burnaby-New Westminster (Peter Julian) are likely only safe ridings due to the popularity of their M.Ps.

To be sure though, it was the N.D.P that won Port Moody-Coquitlam over the Conservatives and not the Liberals.

I'm sure it would take longer, but I can also see urban Southern Vancouver Island (Victoria, Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke and even Saanich and the Islands trend Liberal.)

Were for some reason Jagmeet Sigh to step down, these are the M.Ps based on their popularity in their ridings, that I could see running for leader:

1.Laurel Collins, Victoria (not as popular as the others, but with 13/25 NDP ridings in B.C, I think one of them would have to run.)
2.Heather McPherson, Edmonton-Strathcona
3.Leah Gazan, Winnipeg Centre
4.Daniel Blaikie, Elmwood-Transcona
5.Matthew Green, Hamilton Centre
6.Alexandre Boulerice, Rosemont-La Petite Petrie

For what it's worth, since this is all academic anyway, I could see some members of legislative assemblies run as well, like maybe David Eby in Vancouver, Bowinn Ma in North Vancouver,  Sara Singh in Brampton, and Claudia Chender in Halifax.  I'm sure some Ontario  New Democrats would like Andrea Horwath to run as well, mostly to get rid of her.

In Ontario they are in a pickle.  Your blue collar areas like Hamilton, Windsor, and Northern Ontario tend to be more left wing populists and Singh is a bad fit for those.  Only held onto these due to Tory weakness, although Tories did better than usual in these and PPC was surprisingly strong here.  Other is your downtown urban cores which Singh is a good fit for, but in those areas I find most are promiscuous progressives who tend to swing en masse behind whichever party is most likely to keep Tories out of office.  With Liberals moving to more left woke as opposed to your traditional centrist type, that squeezes NDP out there. 

While won few seats, NDP actually had best showing in votes in Alberta since 1988 which bodes quite well for Notley in next provincial election. 

[mileslunn]

I'm sure it would take longer, but I can also see urban Southern Vancouver Island (Victoria, Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke and even Saanich and the Islands) trend Liberal.

More immediately, I'd assume that's mostly just picking off the entrails of the Green vote.

I suspect a lot of it are people who used to vote for the provincial Liberals but voted NDP in 2017 and 2020.  That also seems to be the case for many of the people in Greater Vancouver who voted Liberal provincially up to 2013 but voted NDP in 2017 and 2020.

I think swing provincially is a number of factors.

1.  Anyone under 40 wouldn't remember the 90s so you have a whole new generation where the NDP were disaster in 90s won't work with and with those in 30s unlike a decade ago now getting married and having children, many leaving city proper for suburbs thus pulling them left.

2.  It appears in 2017, a lot of former BC Liberal voters who had reach fatigued with party but still fearful of NDP voted for the Green Party not NDP.

3.  After Horgan turned out to be not that bad and not like NDP of 90s, many moved over to NDP in 2020.

For federal shift, I think climate change and housing crisis perhaps reason for leftward shift while things like taxes and balanced budgets were huge issues a decade ago, but much less now.  In addition could be a West coast phenomenon as Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, and Los Angeles suburbs have all seen similar shifts.  Bush won many of LA ones in 2004, ran even with Kerry in Portland while lost most Seattle but still got in the 40s.  Did worse in San Francisco but still got around 30%.  By contrast Trump got trashed badly in all of them.  Even Orange County where Bush got 60%, Trump lost both times.  While suburbs throughout US swung left, the biggest swings from Bush and even Romney were on West Coast.  Yes US is a different country, but fact seeing similar trend is interesting. 

[mileslunn]

It was mentioned already but in these areas (including windsor/hamilton, union urban areas) a left-wing populist pocket-book approach is needed, which is different then what might play in urban cores, where the NDP need to retain and attract promiscuous progressives. Singh can't sacrifice one for the other, the loss of Hamilton-Mountain and the inability to gain back Windsor-Tecumseh and Essex should slap the leadership into realizing this...I hope. 

Places like Essex and Oshawa are probably gone for NDP except in really good elections and ditto Niagara Centre.  Those three have a lot in common with Red wall seats in UK that voted for Brexit and went Labour up until 2019, but Boris Johnson won.  Also some similarities to Obama-Trump areas like Mahoning Valley in Ohio and Northeastern Pennsylvania which saw similar swings.  In case of Niagara Centre I think its not a matter of if, but a matter of when Tories win that one.  I've suggested in a decade it will be more favourable to Tories than Burlington or Kanata-Carleton which are more white collar upper middle class.  O'Toole might win those two next time, but only because he is more centrist (a Scheer led party could never win them) and Trudeau more left wing and may raise taxes (A more centrist Liberal party would have those locked up)

[mileslunn]

One interesting observation is Madawaska area of New Brunswick.  It seems like Canadian and American sides which are closely connected and many have family on both sides moving in opposite directions.  A decade ago, Tories held Madawaska County both federally and provincially, while now getting clobbered at both levels.  By contrast on US side, Obama was winning this area by massive margins, around 2/3 of vote.  On other hand Trump both times either won many communities on American side or came very close.  Any reason why they are going in exact opposite direction as while US different country it seems most border states following similar trends to Canadian counterparts?

[mileslunn]

In Ontario they are in a pickle.  Your blue collar areas like Hamilton, Windsor, and Northern Ontario tend to be more left wing populists and Singh is a bad fit for those.  Only held onto these due to Tory weakness, although Tories did better than usual in these and PPC was surprisingly strong here. 

One breach-in-the-red-wall earthquake that only became clear in the final tally was the NDP finishing 3rd in *Nickel Belt*--an ignominy they had escaped even in the darkest Audrey/Alexa years...

The NDP came in second, BUT the CPC and NDP had the same vote % at 27%. the NDP has 167 votes over the CPC. Your point there thought, that's a 5% decrease for the NDP and a 6% increase for the CPC. The LPC also lost 4% while the PPC gained 7%.

Actually, the final certified result put CPC ahead by nearly 300 votes.

... CBC needs update their site! Thanks!

The whole Northern Ontario circumstance really is looking ominous--the one thing momentarily standing in the way of a rightward earthquake is the federal Libs' endurance; they're still absorbing a lot of that "in-between" energy that might otherwise lurch in the Con direction, much as PPC's absorbing the fringe energy.  But once *any* of that goes blue, it might be hard to retrieve.

In some ways, the present 3-way dynamic reminds me of Manitoba and Saskatchewan in the 90s, when they hadn't gone "all in" for Reform yet--but once they did w/the successor Alliance/Conservative parties, they *really* did...

There is definitely a trend of people in remote communities to the Conservatives, but what would likely hold that back are the large amount of unionized private sector workers and the large indigenous populations in Northern Ontario.

Not sure about unions.  While unionized workers tend to lean left, that is largely due to public sector union members which for obvious reasons don't vote Conservative.  But amongst private sector union members, I believe Tories are quite competitive.  Not sure if won this or not, but definitely much stronger than in past.  After all private sector union members are disproportionately white males over 50 without a college degree and that group has trended rightward throughout developed world.  Public sector union members more likely to live in cities, more women than men, and tend to be fairly ethnically diverse too as well as most usually have a post secondary degree. 

Now agree on indigenous although Kenora has largest indigenous population and went Tory.  I think bigger problem there is turnout tends to be very low amongst indigenous voters thus why Tories can win ridings like Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River which they would have no hope at winning if indigenous voters turned out in similar numbers to white voters and ditto Kenora.  One big one holding it back though is Francophone voters however.  While Harper did reasonably well amongst Francophones outside Quebec, O'Toole did horrible here.  Predominately Francophone ridings in New Brunswick were the Tories worst showings in Atlantic Canada outside Halifax and St. John's while only predominately rural riding Liberals won in Southern Ontario was Glengarry-Prescott-Russell which is majority Francophone.  I think both Ford's cuts to French language services and Blaine Higgs being unilingual had a negative spillover federally. 

[mileslunn]

I think areas with lots of private sector unions a mix.  Its true Vancouver Island stays competitive for NDP, but BC Interior I believe has high rate of private sector unions.  While Okanagan Valley and Peace River area have never gone NDP (where unionization rates low), back in 90s NDP used to win in Kamloops and Prince George whereas nowadays both vote for parties on right at both levels.  In Northern Ontario true but Southern Ontario mixed.  Hamilton and Windsor still very weak for Tories, but Oshawa, Essex, Brantford-Brant which prior to merger rarely voted for parties on right now go Tory most of the time.  And Niagara Centre I think is a low hanging fruit that Tories could definitely win in a future election.  I think in Ontario, its more private sector unions favour NDP in Northern Ontario and urban ridings, but favour Tories in more smaller communities in Southern Ontario and likewise favour NDP in coastal areas, but Tories in Interior.  Skeena-Bulkley Valley I think goes NDP more due to large aboriginal population.  Yes won when Nathan Cullen was leader but I've noticed provincially that BC NDP generally gets over 80% on reserves or predominately First Nation areas, but outside those BC Liberals tend to win albeit much narrower margins and if federal results follow similar pattern, that would suggest large Aboriginal population not private sector unions reason they are holding it.  Now South Okanagan-West Kootenay agreed as Trail and Castlegar do seem unlike rest of Interior to have remained loyal to NDP.  Also in Grand Forks you have big Dhukobor community and I suspect due to communal lifestyle and pacifism, they mostly go NDP too.

Part of it could be type of job too.  I've found in BC, forestry workers tend to favour NDP, but those in resource sector more likely to vote Tory.  Although mining in other provinces mostly NDP still.  Part of reason Interior goes Conservative is NDP has a strong environmental wing which was much weaker in 90s and many worry they have too much influence and will hurt jobs.  Heck even in 2005 and 2009, NDP was competitive provincially in Cariboo and East Kootenays, but those now solidly BC Liberal despite most of province swinging away from them.

[mileslunn]

With only one result to be finalized and one recount to come, I think I can be safe in putting these up:

First, a results map shaded according to the winners' margin of victory:


Second, a map shaded according to the winners' percentage of the vote:


Finally, a map shaded according to the swing:

  Some may say this sounds silly but any possibility of doing a US style map where red for ridings where CPC + PPC > than LPC + NDP + BQ + GPC while blue for ones where LPC + NDP + BQ + GPC > CPC + PPC, otherwise a map to see where left outperforms right.

[mileslunn]

Did O’Tooele really ever have a chance?

For a majority no.  For a minority yes but it was always a long shot and required all the stars to align perfectly and very seldom does that happen.  That being said had in 2017 they chosen him instead of Scheer, I think its quite possible he would be PM today as conditions in 2019 were much more favourable for Tories and O'Toole is without question a better candidate than Scheer ever was.  If Scheer were leader this time around, PPC may have done worse, but Tories likely would have fallen below 100 seats and probably struggled to get to 30% mark, most likely in high 20s.

[mileslunn]

Also looks like Tories despite not gaining, did see swings in their favour in parts of country they need to gain, namely Ontario, some parts of Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and even some areas in BC.  By contrast seems strongest swings away from them were Prairies where they could afford to lose lots of votes with few seats.  Interestingly enough in Ontario, race was closer than 2006 when Harper came to power and that election it was a 4.8 point spread between two parties with Liberals ahead while in 2021 it was a 4.3 spread.  Yet in 2006 it was 54 Liberals to 40 Tories out of 106 seats while in 2021 it was 37 to 77 out of 121 seats.  So seems results vote wise similar in Ontario to 2006, but Liberals way more efficient in 2021 than 2006.

Also wonder anybody have turnout numbers by riding.  Just looking at seat difference compared to vote, I cannot help but think turnout was much lower in GTA and urban ridings than rural ones so similar phenomenon to UK 2005 where Labour beat Tories by only 3%, yet got double the seats for this reason.