Weird 538 maps

[Hnv1]

winning the EC with the least amount of states carried


11 states, 1 EV from Maine

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

winning the EC with the least amount of states carried


11 states, 1 EV from Maine

It's theoretically possible for Biden to win every state with a population larger than Tennessee's.

[Gustaf]

Not exactly a map, but I find it bizarre the model still gives Trump a 28% chance of winning a Clinton state. This means they think there is at least a 15% chance Trump wins a Clinton state and still loses the electoral college. That strikes me as very very unlikely.

[Torrain]

Not exactly a map, but I find it bizarre the model still gives Trump a 28% chance of winning a Clinton state. This means they think there is at least a 15% chance Trump wins a Clinton state and still loses the electoral college. That strikes me as very very unlikely.

Based on the uncertainty written into the model, I guess it assumes a non-zero chance that either NV, NH, or ME trends right, while Biden scrapes to victory elsewhere? The model is weighted to previous election results, and in many reelection contests (think Bush 43, Clinton), the incumbent dropped several of the states they won on their first election while picking up others (Clinton losing Georgia, but gaining Arizona, Bush losing NH, but gaining Iowa).

It doesn't seem plausible now, based on the environment, but given how close the swing states were in 2016, I can see how the numbers line up to make that a probability in the forecast.

[pantsaregood]

I don't think it gets much weirder than this one.

[redjohn]

I don't think it gets much weirder than this one.

I'm trying so hard to think of a match-up that results in something resembling this. Ojeda/Sutton (D) vs Ducey/Walden (R) if Sutton had won his 2018 race? Major scandal among Colorado dems causes state to withstand giant blue wave that turns OK blue.

[Alben Barkley]

Not exactly a map, but I find it bizarre the model still gives Trump a 28% chance of winning a Clinton state. This means they think there is at least a 15% chance Trump wins a Clinton state and still loses the electoral college. That strikes me as very very unlikely.

The only way I can see it happening even if I squint is if he picks up Nevada but loses MI/PA/WI at least. NV by itself isn't worth much. However, I think it's highly unlikely he'll win that state, or any close Clinton 2016 state, including MN and NH.

[VAR]

[YL]

Not exactly a map, but I find it bizarre the model still gives Trump a 28% chance of winning a Clinton state. This means they think there is at least a 15% chance Trump wins a Clinton state and still loses the electoral college. That strikes me as very very unlikely.

Based on the uncertainty written into the model, I guess it assumes a non-zero chance that either NV, NH, or ME trends right, while Biden scrapes to victory elsewhere? The model is weighted to previous election results, and in many reelection contests (think Bush 43, Clinton), the incumbent dropped several of the states they won on their first election while picking up others (Clinton losing Georgia, but gaining Arizona, Bush losing NH, but gaining Iowa).

It doesn't seem plausible now, based on the environment, but given how close the swing states were in 2016, I can see how the numbers line up to make that a probability in the forecast.

Yes, I think it's the uncertainty in the model combined with what seem to me to be too weak state by state correlations.

As we've seen, there's quite often a map in there which shows Oregon voting Trump while Biden wins nationally; now I don't think the odd simulation with Oregon voting Trump is ridiculous if you have a lot of uncertainty, but it seems to me that if it happens then Biden must have done unexpectedly badly with some groups who are represented across most of the country and so is very unlikely to win (and ridiculously unlikely to win in a landslide like that 474-64 map).  And if the model is overestimating the probability that Biden wins but loses Oregon, I'd suspect it's also overestimating the presumably larger probabilities that he wins but loses Maine, New Hampshire, Nevada or Minnesota.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

You know? Of the weirder 538 maps, this is probably one of the more plausible (yet still incredibly unbelievably implausible) examples.  

[ProgressiveModerate]

You know? Of the weirder 538 maps, this is probably one of the more plausible (yet still incredibly unbelievably implausible) examples.  

This seems like a map where pretty much every anti-Trump vote goes to Biden.

[Ferguson97]

You know? Of the weirder 538 maps, this is probably one of the more plausible (yet still incredibly unbelievably implausible) examples.  

Romney endorses Biden; Mark Kelly gets me too'd; Al Gross/Steve Bullock reverse coat-tails... I guess there's a semi-plausible way for this to occur. But probably not lol

[The Mikado]

Megabump, because  Fivey Fox has been producing fewer and fewer bizarre maps as the election has gotten closer...but today he did a little peyote and produced this masterpiece:

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Megabump, because  Fivey Fox has been producing fewer and fewer bizarre maps as the election has gotten closer...but today he did a little peyote and produced this masterpiece:

What if Trump wins 70% of the white vote but there's 100% black turnout

[ProgressiveModerate]

Somehow Biden wins the PV by 1.2%, and Trump wins in an EC landslide of 351 EVs and Rs win 55 senate seats. This would suck. The senate map is really funky too.

[pantsaregood]

Just when you thought Fivey cleaned up his act, we get this gem.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Their most extreme Biden map right now:

What is this, 1936??

[ProgressiveModerate]

[Figueira]

Their most extreme Biden map right now:

What is this, 1936??

As goes Wyoming, so goes Vermont.

[Figueira]

What simulator is this? And what's going on in Florida? Did Marco Rubio switch parties?

[ProgressiveModerate]

What simulator is this? And what's going on in Florida? Did Marco Rubio switch parties?

Mine! FL is a placeholder for GA(S)

Try it out here: https://1drv.ms/x/s!AtVtTR6So6YcjyFBFeXyNb-ERt-x?e=saGe7a

[Figueira]

What simulator is this? And what's going on in Florida? Did Marco Rubio switch parties?

Mine! FL is a placeholder for GA(S)

Try it out here: https://1drv.ms/x/s!AtVtTR6So6YcjyFBFeXyNb-ERt-x?e=saGe7a

Says that the file is too big to open in Excel Online.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What simulator is this? And what's going on in Florida? Did Marco Rubio switch parties?

Mine! FL is a placeholder for GA(S)

Try it out here: https://1drv.ms/x/s!AtVtTR6So6YcjyFBFeXyNb-ERt-x?e=saGe7a

Says that the file is too big to open in Excel Online.

You have to open the link in Edge where you will be redirected to Excel. Chrome and other browsers tend to not work.

[ultraviolet]

What simulator is this? And what's going on in Florida? Did Marco Rubio switch parties?

Mine! FL is a placeholder for GA(S)

Try it out here: https://1drv.ms/x/s!AtVtTR6So6YcjyFBFeXyNb-ERt-x?e=saGe7a

Says that the file is too big to open in Excel Online.

You have to open the link in Edge where you will be redirected to Excel. Chrome and other browsers tend to not work.

Also it doesn’t work on Mac even with Edge

[ProgressiveModerate]

What simulator is this? And what's going on in Florida? Did Marco Rubio switch parties?

Mine! FL is a placeholder for GA(S)

Try it out here: https://1drv.ms/x/s!AtVtTR6So6YcjyFBFeXyNb-ERt-x?e=saGe7a

Says that the file is too big to open in Excel Online.

You have to open the link in Edge where you will be redirected to Excel. Chrome and other browsers tend to not work.

Also it doesn’t work on Mac even with Edge

Oof, sorry about that. I use windows so I'm not exactly sure how it works on Mac, you could try in other browsers or maybe there's a way to open the link in Excel itself.