Weird 538 maps
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Author Topic: Weird 538 maps  (Read 11391 times)
Independents for George Santos
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« Reply #125 on: September 20, 2020, 04:38:19 PM »
Is Nate off his meds or are these maps completely arbitrary? Like, instead of showing a million different maps of Biden winning something like 2016+MI, PA, WI, AZ, and FL, the graphics show way less likely maps that happen to hit the same EV total?
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #126 on: September 21, 2020, 08:39:09 AM »
Here's a very plausible tie scenario that the forecast generated:
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Figueira
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« Reply #127 on: September 21, 2020, 08:55:03 AM »
Quote from: Seef on September 20, 2020, 04:38:19 PM
Is Nate off his meds or are these maps completely arbitrary? Like, instead of showing a million different maps of Biden winning something like 2016+MI, PA, WI, AZ, and FL, the graphics show way less likely maps that happen to hit the same EV total?

Nah, the EV totals definitely have to be calculated from the states, not the other way around. Nate's model isn't that bad. I think the model just doesn't account for state correlations nearly enough, and has way too much uncertainty.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #128 on: September 21, 2020, 09:25:12 AM »


Isn't the point of 24 random maps at the top of the page defeated if you display the same map 3 times in a row?
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #129 on: September 21, 2020, 09:30:28 AM »
Quote from: The Mikado on September 21, 2020, 09:25:12 AM


Isn't the point of 24 random maps at the top of the page defeated if you display the same map 3 times in a row?

Actually, there's nothing more random than accidental repeats, as that's the nature of true randomness; you'll sometimes get the same map multiple times just by chance. This reinforces the idea that the model thinks that map is relatively likely compared to some others.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #130 on: September 23, 2020, 08:42:57 PM »
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Stuart98
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« Reply #131 on: September 23, 2020, 08:48:52 PM »
Quote from: The Mikado on September 21, 2020, 09:25:12 AM


Isn't the point of 24 random maps at the top of the page defeated if you display the same map 3 times in a row?
Maps don't show which ways the ME and NE CDs went so they might not actually be identical.

Ah yes, Biden winning LA+MS while losing FL, WI, ME, NH, TX. Totally plausible.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #132 on: September 24, 2020, 02:14:35 PM »
Found one where Biden gets 469 EVs, but..... Oregon isn't one of them! While Missouri, Louisiana and Tennessee are.
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YL
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« Reply #133 on: September 24, 2020, 03:38:22 PM »
There was one this morning with a fairly comfortable Biden win but with Oregon (of course), Colorado, New Hampshire, Maine and Vermont (!) voting for Trump.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #134 on: September 24, 2020, 03:39:18 PM »
Quote from: YL on September 24, 2020, 03:38:22 PM
There was one this morning with a fairly comfortable Biden win but with Oregon (of course), Colorado, New Hampshire, Maine and Vermont (!) voting for Trump.

White voters shifted heavily towards Trump
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Stuart98
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« Reply #135 on: September 27, 2020, 04:35:06 AM »
« Edited: September 27, 2020, 05:03:53 AM by Stuart98 »


Trump carried Delaware in this map, btw.

In other news...


It happened again, drink a shot.


A plausible Clinton '92 map?
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The Mikado
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« Reply #136 on: September 27, 2020, 02:50:58 PM »
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #137 on: September 28, 2020, 11:05:37 AM »
Is this the ultimate "Bernie or Bust" map?



I can understand getting truly strange maps 1-in-40,000 times.
But they really shouldn't be showing up this often in a representative sample of only 100.
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Donald Trump’s Toupée
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« Reply #138 on: September 28, 2020, 11:14:27 AM »
Quote from: Fmr. Gov. NickG on September 28, 2020, 11:05:37 AM
Is this the ultimate "Bernie or Bust" map?



I can understand getting truly strange maps 1-in-40,000 times.
But they really shouldn't be showing up this often in a representative sample of only 100.

Just more evidence that the numbers all over the place, and no one knows wtf will happen.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #139 on: September 28, 2020, 11:20:19 AM »
Quote from: Donald Trump’s Toupée on September 28, 2020, 11:14:27 AM
Quote from: Fmr. Gov. NickG on September 28, 2020, 11:05:37 AM
Is this the ultimate "Bernie or Bust" map?



I can understand getting truly strange maps 1-in-40,000 times.
But they really shouldn't be showing up this often in a representative sample of only 100.

Just more evidence that the numbers all over the place, and no one knows wtf will happen.

If by "numbers", you mean the actual polls, they aren't all over the place, they are extremely stable.
The model is just allowing for way too much uncertainty and assuming too little cross-correlation.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #140 on: September 29, 2020, 03:51:30 PM »
It happened again, that's another shot. Drink up.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #141 on: September 29, 2020, 04:03:22 PM »
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Astatine
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« Reply #142 on: September 29, 2020, 04:21:29 PM »
THIS is the real sunbelt stack!
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #143 on: September 29, 2020, 04:23:53 PM »

Is it 1976? 1876???
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Kuumo
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« Reply #144 on: September 29, 2020, 04:29:13 PM »

The NH women got angry at Biden!
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Astatine
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« Reply #145 on: September 29, 2020, 04:31:52 PM »
At least Oregon didn't.
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Kuumo
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« Reply #146 on: September 29, 2020, 04:39:48 PM »
« Edited: September 29, 2020, 05:12:25 PM by Kuumo »

I was pleasantly surprised by that. Usually those hipsters in Portland stay home or vote Hawkins en masse because they don't want Oregon to vote like Louisiana and Mississippi.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #147 on: September 29, 2020, 04:46:53 PM »

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YL
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« Reply #148 on: September 30, 2020, 12:06:23 PM »
And it did it again...



462-76

(At least I assume it's the 1st and 2nd districts in Nebraska which go for Biden.  I wouldn't put it past it to give him the 3rd from time to time.)
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The Mikado
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« Reply #149 on: September 30, 2020, 12:29:40 PM »
Quote from: YL on September 30, 2020, 12:06:23 PM
And it did it again...



462-76

(At least I assume it's the 1st and 2nd districts in Nebraska which go for Biden.  I wouldn't put it past it to give him the 3rd from time to time.)

The Solid South!

There's that "data back to 1880" coming in handy again.
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