Does Biden have a chance in NC?
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Author Topic: Does Biden have a chance in NC?  (Read 717 times)
One Term Floridian
swamiG
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« on: November 05, 2020, 01:56:19 PM »
I don’t think so. Why hasn’t it been called yet?
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Xing
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2020, 01:58:21 PM »
I've seen conflicting numbers about what's out. If only 117K is left out, then no, not a chance. If it's over 200K, then maybe, but it's not likely.
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ShamDam
ChanDan
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2020, 01:59:20 PM »
I assume it's because they allow late-arriving ballots and it's extremely uncertain how many there are and how strongly for Biden they will break. But I agree that it seems steep.
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Woody
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2020, 01:59:51 PM »
No.
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7,052,770
Harry
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2020, 02:01:02 PM »
Unlikely, but a better chance than Trump does in PA or NV
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P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong
razze
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2020, 02:07:26 PM »
I feel like this is the anti-AZ in terms of outstanding votes expected, so why hasn't Fox News called NC for example?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2020, 02:29:19 PM »
D's thought they had NC in the bad due to NC Gov race
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n1240
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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2020, 02:30:59 PM »
Quote from: Xing on November 05, 2020, 01:58:21 PM
I've seen conflicting numbers about what's out. If only 117K is left out, then no, not a chance. If it's over 200K, then maybe, but it's not likely.

The 117k number keeps being reported but it's misleading. 117k is the number of voters who requested a ballot but haven't had their ballot returned by Nov 3 or haven't voted in person yet, so realistically the number of mail-in ballots left to be counted will be lower. There are about 40k provisional ballots but these won't necessarily be great for Biden because they were mostly cast in-person.
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CellarDoor
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2020, 02:33:14 PM »
We don't know.  We've seen this 117K number reported.  Are there also provisional ballots on top of that?  I also read that the USPS just finally delivered a ton of ballots (!50K) across many swing states.  Do those include NC and will they be counted?

Lots of questions.  We'll see.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2020, 02:35:04 PM »
Quote from: Xing on November 05, 2020, 01:58:21 PM
I've seen conflicting numbers about what's out. If only 117K is left out, then no, not a chance. If it's over 200K, then maybe, but it's not likely.

The only number I've seen is 290k, which would require Trump to win 37% of the remaining vote.

If it's 117k remaining, Trump only needs 18%.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2020, 02:43:59 PM »
NCSBE reports 116.2k unreturned mail ballots plus 40.7k provisionals. Shouldn't that mean the max possible additional votes is 156.9k (with far fewer than that likely to be actually returned/accepted)? Or is there an additional trove would could be included?
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One Term Floridian
swamiG
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« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2020, 04:06:51 AM »
What a mess of an election. We have no clue. I hope Biden can win NC and somehow drag Scandalous Cal with him to the Senate. But I’d definitely bet against it. I think the margin is just too steep. Best case scenario is we end up with a Cooper 2016 sized win with Scandalous Cal out of the senate and sleeping with another West Coast chick. Ugh what an idiot. That clearly cost him support.
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Vern
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« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2020, 08:48:50 AM »
We will know on the 12th
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