Weird 538 maps (user search)
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Author Topic: Weird 538 maps  (Read 11484 times)
Ferguson97
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« on: August 17, 2020, 02:00:13 PM »


Biden 379 - Trump 159

Craziest parts are Louisiana, South Carolina, and Mississippi going to Biden while Arizona stays in Trump's column.


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Ferguson97
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« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2020, 07:41:59 PM »
Quote from: money printer go brrr on August 20, 2020, 07:29:00 PM
Yeah the biggest problem with the model right now is that it has fat tails (which yeah okay, still some uncertainty because we're months from election day, guess that makes sense) that aren't correlated with each other at all. That's why you're getting obviously bunk outcomes like R-AZ but D-LA.

I'm not sure why Nate's model is doing this because I've definitely seen him harping on state correlations before. Right now the model seems to just grab tail-outcomes for random states in random directions and it leads to obviously whacky stuff.

With that said I spotted this gem on the back panel a few days ago





Reagan BTFO
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #2 on: August 21, 2020, 12:10:44 PM »
Quote from: Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln) on August 21, 2020, 05:41:54 AM
Quote from: money printer go brrr on August 20, 2020, 07:29:00 PM
Yeah the biggest problem with the model right now is that it has fat tails (which yeah okay, still some uncertainty because we're months from election day, guess that makes sense) that aren't correlated with each other at all. That's why you're getting obviously bunk outcomes like R-AZ but D-LA.

I'm not sure why Nate's model is doing this because I've definitely seen him harping on state correlations before. Right now the model seems to just grab tail-outcomes for random states in random directions and it leads to obviously whacky stuff.

With that said I spotted this gem on the back panel a few days ago





Is that a Jorgensen win in WY or did Wyoming literally just disappear?

Cody, Wyoming 100% turnout for KANYE WEST
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #3 on: August 21, 2020, 12:42:08 PM »
Quote from: MR. KAYNE WEST on August 21, 2020, 12:40:13 PM


Map going the way of Senate race plus 278 of course

Honestly that's not even the craziest map I've seen. Florida is gonna Florida, and with very few split-ticket voters in Kansas with a Boiler surge... it's unlikely, but not *ridiculous*.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #4 on: September 01, 2020, 02:06:24 PM »
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #5 on: September 02, 2020, 08:21:47 PM »


Another weird 538 tie map

NC flips but Arizona doesn't, and NH flips to Trump?
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #6 on: September 07, 2020, 08:45:41 PM »
Quote from: Astatine on September 07, 2020, 07:21:45 PM
After seeing all those maps, 538 appears to obsessed with the idea of Oregon going Republican.

Brad Pascale on 538 payroll confirmed
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #7 on: September 13, 2020, 09:06:47 AM »
Quote from: Лучше красный, чем мёртвый on September 13, 2020, 08:25:38 AM
Also, can you believe that Joe Biden is older than Bill Clinton? It feels crazy.

And Al Gore, and John Kerry
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #8 on: September 13, 2020, 11:50:53 PM »

Steve Bullock vs Christine Todd Whitman?
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2020, 11:57:02 AM »


Looks like a 1996 map
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Ferguson97
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Posts: 28,116
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2020, 10:59:27 PM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 15, 2020, 05:48:50 AM

You know? Of the weirder 538 maps, this is probably one of the more plausible (yet still incredibly unbelievably implausible) examples.  

Romney endorses Biden; Mark Kelly gets me too'd; Al Gross/Steve Bullock reverse coat-tails... I guess there's a semi-plausible way for this to occur. But probably not lol
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