Weird 538 maps
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Author Topic: Weird 538 maps  (Read 11417 times)
Crumpets
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« Reply #100 on: September 13, 2020, 09:44:18 PM »
I get that there'll be more Biden win maps than Trump win maps,  simply because they show more Biden win maps,  but it seems strange that there don't seem to be many crazy Trump win maps - something like Trump winning Illinois and losing Indiana, or winning New Jersey and losing Ohio.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #101 on: September 13, 2020, 09:48:32 PM »
Quote from: Crumpets on September 13, 2020, 09:44:18 PM
I get that there'll be more Biden win maps than Trump win maps,  simply because they show more Biden win maps,  but it seems strange that there don't seem to be many crazy Trump win maps - something like Trump winning Illinois and losing Indiana, or winning New Jersey and losing Ohio.

Especially since it seems likely there would be more fishy stuff going on with ballots in a Trump-slide.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #102 on: September 13, 2020, 11:50:53 PM »

Steve Bullock vs Christine Todd Whitman?
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The Mikado
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« Reply #103 on: September 15, 2020, 02:32:52 PM »
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Crumpets
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« Reply #104 on: September 15, 2020, 02:51:12 PM »

Union Joe!
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Crumpets
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« Reply #105 on: September 15, 2020, 03:06:28 PM »
I complain about not having enough weird Trump win maps, and then we get this:



Trump/Pence 338
Biden/Harris 200
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ultraviolet
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« Reply #106 on: September 15, 2020, 03:29:55 PM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on September 13, 2020, 09:48:32 PM
Quote from: Crumpets on September 13, 2020, 09:44:18 PM
I get that there'll be more Biden win maps than Trump win maps,  simply because they show more Biden win maps,  but it seems strange that there don't seem to be many crazy Trump win maps - something like Trump winning Illinois and losing Indiana, or winning New Jersey and losing Ohio.

Especially since it seems likely there would be more fishy stuff going on with ballots in a Trump-slide.

538 model doesn’t account for that though
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Bomster
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« Reply #107 on: September 15, 2020, 05:06:07 PM »
Why doesn’t 538 have a simple national map for their model?
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Kuumo
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« Reply #108 on: September 15, 2020, 09:51:59 PM »
Quote from: Crumpets on September 15, 2020, 03:06:28 PM
I complain about not having enough weird Trump win maps, and then we get this:



Trump/Pence 338
Biden/Harris 200

When millions of Democrats move to Mississippi to turn it blue.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #109 on: September 15, 2020, 09:55:13 PM »
Quote from: Fivey Fox says Oregon could flip in a Biden landslide! on September 15, 2020, 09:51:59 PM
Quote from: Crumpets on September 15, 2020, 03:06:28 PM
I complain about not having enough weird Trump win maps, and then we get this:



Trump/Pence 338
Biden/Harris 200

When millions of Democrats move to Mississippi to turn it blue.

The Great Mississippi Kombucha Rush of 2020
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emailking
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« Reply #110 on: September 15, 2020, 11:08:04 PM »
Quote from: Bomster on September 15, 2020, 05:06:07 PM
Why doesn’t 538 have a simple national map for their model?

Basically the snake chart is the map. It has all the information for a map at least.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #111 on: September 15, 2020, 11:16:50 PM »

Obama in 2012 replaces all Florida and Iowa campaign stops with Montana stops and spectacularly fails to respond to Sandy.
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Bomster
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« Reply #112 on: September 16, 2020, 12:15:55 AM »
Flip Alaska, Virginia, and New Hampshire red while making Iowa, South Dakota, and West Virginia blue and
You have yourself a fairly plausible alt-1988 map.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #113 on: September 16, 2020, 12:22:51 AM »
Some gems from a twitter thread a few weeks ago
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #114 on: September 16, 2020, 12:24:59 AM »
Not sure this is a 538 map, but it's a fairly likely (as in 1% chance or better) nail-biter for Biden:


Biden/Harris 51% / 278 EV
Trump/Pence 47% / 260 EV
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #115 on: September 16, 2020, 09:08:43 AM »
Quote from: Stuart98 on September 16, 2020, 12:22:51 AM
Some gems from a twitter thread a few weeks ago



This is my favorite Yellowstone Caldera scenario yet.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #116 on: September 16, 2020, 10:12:25 PM »


"We've incorporated data going back to 1880..."
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Blackacre
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« Reply #117 on: September 17, 2020, 09:53:36 AM »
Arkansas shows up for Biden on a surprising amount of these sims because the only Arkansas poll that exists is a junk one that has Trump up 2
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #118 on: September 18, 2020, 11:57:02 AM »


Looks like a 1996 map
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Kuumo
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« Reply #119 on: September 18, 2020, 12:56:05 PM »
Quote from: Bland Neoliberal Consensus Democrat on September 16, 2020, 09:08:43 AM
Quote from: Stuart98 on September 16, 2020, 12:22:51 AM
Some gems from a twitter thread a few weeks ago



This is my favorite Yellowstone Caldera scenario yet.

I had to check the electoral vote count to see if my eyes were deceiving me with Republican Hawaii. Either there was a 2004-on-steroids pro-incumbent swing or there was a second volcanic eruption that killed everyone except a few naval ships outside the blast radius with majority Republican crew members.

Also, the obligatory
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ultraviolet
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« Reply #120 on: September 18, 2020, 01:16:29 PM »

Not really... maybe 2008
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The Mikado
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« Reply #121 on: September 19, 2020, 10:36:53 PM »


Texas and Georgia are there yet...

But PA and OR aren't.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #122 on: September 19, 2020, 11:00:12 PM »
Quote from: The Mikado on September 19, 2020, 10:36:53 PM


Texas and Georgia are there yet...

But PA and OR aren't.
Texas and GA but not PA isn't inconceivable.

538's obsession with red Oregon is just batsh**t crazy though.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #123 on: September 20, 2020, 04:15:10 PM »
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Stuart98
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« Reply #124 on: September 20, 2020, 04:17:58 PM »
Another map where Biden wins LA and not OR, that's another shot.
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