Weird 538 maps (user search)
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Author Topic: Weird 538 maps  (Read 11456 times)
Figueira
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« on: August 17, 2020, 12:46:41 PM »

Post your weird 538 maps here. You can find them if you hover over the dots on the 538 forecast page: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ Most of them are normal but you'll find a few that defy logic and reason.

Also remember to check the EV totals to make sure you color in the right CDs in NE/ME.

To start off (this is a 277-261 Biden win):

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Figueira
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« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2020, 04:39:45 PM »

In which South Carolina votes D while North Carolina and ME-1 vote R.

Biden 285-253

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Figueira
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« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2020, 08:55:03 AM »

Is Nate off his meds or are these maps completely arbitrary? Like, instead of showing a million different maps of Biden winning something like 2016+MI, PA, WI, AZ, and FL, the graphics show way less likely maps that happen to hit the same EV total?

Nah, the EV totals definitely have to be calculated from the states, not the other way around. Nate's model isn't that bad. I think the model just doesn't account for state correlations nearly enough, and has way too much uncertainty.
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Figueira
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« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2020, 09:17:28 AM »

I think the weird maps have been getting a bit less frequent recently.  But they're still out there:



Mississippi, Louisiana and South Carolina, but not North Carolina?  Iowa but not Minnesota?  Oregon (of course)?  Vermont?

Looks like a map from a fictional show created in 1988.
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Figueira
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« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2020, 08:43:06 AM »

Their most extreme Biden map right now:



What is this, 1936??

As goes Wyoming, so goes Vermont.
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Figueira
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« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2020, 08:44:21 AM »


What simulator is this? And what's going on in Florida? Did Marco Rubio switch parties?
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Figueira
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« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2020, 10:11:16 AM »


What simulator is this? And what's going on in Florida? Did Marco Rubio switch parties?

Mine! FL is a placeholder for GA(S)

Try it out here: https://1drv.ms/x/s!AtVtTR6So6YcjyFBFeXyNb-ERt-x?e=saGe7a

Says that the file is too big to open in Excel Online.
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Figueira
84285
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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2020, 08:15:53 AM »

This one is pretty weird.

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