PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[gerritcole]

All this angst over the lib candidate in a R favoring midterm, I think mccormick takes this one by 6

[Mr. Smith]

I mean, yes, Lamb's message (and all of their messages) are going to be different right now in the primary vs. the GE. So not sure why it matters that he's not focusing on things like inflation right now specifically when I'm sure whoever is the winner of the primary will definitely focus on all those things after May...

Not to mention, at the same time, I don't think it's correct to say his entire message revolves around the filibuster and 1/6, b/c that's just not true if you follow him.

Also just given Lamb's objective electoral history, not sure how he could really be called 'unimpressive'. Fetterman for better or worse just doesn't have that concrete argument since he's never been in a GE.

Of course - it's not utterly devoid of kitchen-table issues like Gideon's or McGrath's campaigns were. And even I don't think it'll be in the general.

But from what I've seen he's pretty clearly centering social issues over economic issues.

You're an optimistic one. This is strange.

Anyway, you're focusing on the wrong Mc-G. The Mc-G kind of campaign we should be worried about is the one that Obummer actively installed at the expense of Sestak, which allowed The Tumor a second try.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

ngl I'm not the biggest Oz fan but this was a really smart ad. Uses his media background to his advantage as an "outsider" and ties himself to Reagan and Trump.
https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/1502371264618455042

[wbrocks67]

Love when media types can try and pull the "I'm an Outsider" card. So disingenuous.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OZ is the same as Tim Ryan whom is narrowly behind in OH they both won't overcome the partisan nature of their state Oz will lose 50/46 the only poll we had was 44)42 Fetterman over OZ and Ryan down 50/46 to Josh MANDEL

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1503888138464382979

[SnowLabrador]

Honestly, Fetterman's a terrible candidate at this point. I'm for this, even if I agree with Fetterman more on policy. The most important thing is winning. Of course, it's not likely than any Democrat can beat any Republican in Pennsylvania this year.

[Morning in Atlas]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1503888138464382979

Y'all wanna see what happens after f**king around?

[Morning in Atlas]

Honestly, Fetterman's a terrible candidate at this point. I'm for this, even if I agree with Fetterman more on policy. The most important thing is winning. Of course, it's not likely than any Democrat can beat any Republican in Pennsylvania this year.

Boo hoo. It's either us or McCormick/Oz.

We're tired of out-of-touch politicians deciding who the best nominee is. We're especially tired of voting for Democrats that campaign like Democrats, grift and leech off our ideas, and vote like Republicans. We're also tired of the increasingly sportsified approach Democrats have taken to elections. Cool, you won an election. What's the point when you can't pass a bill because you elected a bunch of serial flip-floppers whose loyalty lies with rich donors?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Honestly, Fetterman's a terrible candidate at this point. I'm for this, even if I agree with Fetterman more on policy. The most important thing is winning. Of course, it's not likely than any Democrat can beat any Republican in Pennsylvania this year.

Lol  Fetterman was up 44/42 on Ox you are a DOOMER, we are gonna win WI, PA, and MI and NV and CO and AZ, due to what climate change brought in by global warming due to high Has prices

Fetterman isn't losing with Shapiro and Evers has a 51 PERCENT APPROVAL in the Marquette Law School poll Barnes will win, it's a 3043 map anyways

[Pericles]

Honestly, Fetterman's a terrible candidate at this point. I'm for this, even if I agree with Fetterman more on policy. The most important thing is winning. Of course, it's not likely than any Democrat can beat any Republican in Pennsylvania this year.

Boo hoo. It's either us or McCormick/Oz.

We're tired of out-of-touch politicians deciding who the best nominee is. We're especially tired of voting for Democrats that campaign like Democrats, grift and leech off our ideas, and vote like Republicans. We're also tired of the increasingly sportsified approach Democrats have taken to elections. Cool, you won an election. What's the point when you can't pass a bill because you elected a bunch of serial flip-floppers whose loyalty lies with rich donors?

This is an unhealthy attitude to have. It is Democratic voters who have the same good intentions as you that decide who the nominee is.

[Morning in Atlas]

This is an unhealthy attitude to have. It is Democratic voters who have the same good intentions as you that decide who the nominee is.

That's ideally how it should be. I've never once demonized the Democratic voters. I'm just telling the truth - the concept of "electability" is, at its most charitable, sportsified crap. It prioritizes the idea of power, rather than power itself. At worst it's a marketing tactic that conflates electability with centrism (read: subservience to the rich).

However, there's a major difference between "I'm a politician and I believe Conor Lamb is the best candidate" and the Philly machine coordinating to put their thumbs on the scale for a candidate because - in Jim Kenney's own words - they "want to win".

If they want to make a go of it without us, then we will give them their wish.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Honestly, Fetterman's a terrible candidate at this point. I'm for this, even if I agree with Fetterman more on policy. The most important thing is winning. Of course, it's not likely than any Democrat can beat any Republican in Pennsylvania this year.

Boo hoo. It's either us or McCormick/Oz.

We're tired of out-of-touch politicians deciding who the best nominee is. We're especially tired of voting for Democrats that campaign like Democrats, grift and leech off our ideas, and vote like Republicans. We're also tired of the increasingly sportsified approach Democrats have taken to elections. Cool, you won an election. What's the point when you can't pass a bill because you elected a bunch of serial flip-floppers whose loyalty lies with rich donors?

This is an unhealthy attitude to have. It is Democratic voters who have the same good intentions as you that decide who the nominee is.

There is a reason why Snowlabrador isn't just a DOOMER he thinks Rs will win he has a red avatar like Progressive Moderate or Millennial Moderate we don't know if they are the same user but it's clear they interact with each Other Millineal Moderate has a KA red avatar and says that Rs are gonna sweep the blue wall, but Progressive Moderate is more measured


We all know each other comments by now and Millineal Moderate and Snowlabrador have red Ma avatars and they may or may not be same user but interact with the same person on the forum Progressive Moderate

It's a 303/235 map you know why with D GOTV EFFORT BIDEN 45 APPROVALS WONT BE THAT ON EDAY ITS GONNA BE 50/47

45 is very close to 50 forget 39 percent number, Obama had 39 percent in QU polls in 2010 due to not 4 percent unemployment it was 11 percent  unemployment it's a University poll it it predicted Biden to win OH on EDay and that was wrong OH PREDICTIVE said AZ goes D OH R, OH lost it's BELLWETHER STATUS anyways

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Continues to blow my mind how Fetterman was far and away the front runner and he managed to squander it by refusing to do the most basic things that come with running for office. Debates, networking, going to Philly to meet with the voting base that you need more than anything else…it’s a shame. I’ve become more and more content (and even comfortable) with the idea of voting for Lamb in the general, but I do have concerns about how he will pivot rhetorically. I would hope he could stick to his message about unions and filibuster reform and voting rights (while embracing legal weed) but I fear he will revert back to the moderate talking points that got him elected to Congress in the first place.

In any case, I may just vote for Kenyatta in the primary even if he has no chance at this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Continues to blow my mind how Fetterman was far and away the front runner and he managed to squander it by refusing to do the most basic things that come with running for office. Debates, networking, going to Philly to meet with the voting base that you need more than anything else…it’s a shame. I’ve become more and more content (and even comfortable) with the idea of voting for Lamb in the general, but I do have concerns about how he will pivot rhetorically. I would hope he could stick to his message about unions and filibuster reform and voting rights (while embracing legal weed) but I fear he will revert back to the moderate talking points that got him elected to Congress in the first place.

In any case, I may just vote for Kenyatta in the primary even if he has no chance at this point.

Morgan Harper has zero chamce, but D's aren't gonna win OH, unless a Mason Dixon, University of Cincinnati or Columbus Dispatch poll shows D's leading, you guys have Bob Casey Jr a pro life D's how can you call Fetterman out, Kenyatta had a chance to run for Gov, he waited and ran for Senate when no one was in the race for Gov, it was always Fetterman or Lamb because of Bob Casey Jr, he still could of ran for Gov even if Shapiro was the Fav

The reason why Kenyatta isn't the National fav unlike Warnock or Barnes he is LGBT and D's although the support gay issues don't want to support Keynetta

[Ferguson97]

What's the point when you can't pass a bill because you elected a bunch of serial flip-floppers whose loyalty lies with rich donors?

Having a Democrat who does nothing is 1000% better than a Republican who does bad things.

I also reject your characterization of Lamb, but that's a separate debate.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I'm pretty confident Oz will win now. Trump just said he'll endorse in this primary and if he does, he's obviously gonna endorse Oz.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm pretty confident Oz will win now. Trump just said he'll endorse in this primary and if he does, he's obviously gonna endorse Oz.

I don't know if it's super obvious but I think we can say he's not going to endorse McCormick.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I'm pretty confident Oz will win now. Trump just said he'll endorse in this primary and if he does, he's obviously gonna endorse Oz.

I don't know if it's super obvious but I think we can say he's not going to endorse McCormick.

Trump has been really worried about not picking a losing candidate lately. This primary is clearly a two-man race right now, Sands/Barnette are too far behind for Trump to consider them imo.
Also like I've said before, Oz is Trump's close friend who has been a steadfast supporter since 2016. Just like Walker, this probably means a lot to Trump, even if he isn't "Trumpy" on policy.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm pretty confident Oz will win now. Trump just said he'll endorse in this primary and if he does, he's obviously gonna endorse Oz.

I don't know if it's super obvious but I think we can say he's not going to endorse McCormick.

Trump has been really worried about not picking a losing candidate lately. This primary is clearly a two-man race right now, Sands/Barnette are too far behind for Trump to consider them imo.
Also like I've said before, Oz is Trump's close friend who has been a steadfast supporter since 2016. Just like Walker, this probably means a lot to Trump, even if he isn't "Trumpy" on policy.

Oz very much has some of that Trump-in-2016-primary type of energy as well, which further helps his case.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I'm pretty confident Oz will win now. Trump just said he'll endorse in this primary and if he does, he's obviously gonna endorse Oz.

I don't know if it's super obvious but I think we can say he's not going to endorse McCormick.

Trump has been really worried about not picking a losing candidate lately. This primary is clearly a two-man race right now, Sands/Barnette are too far behind for Trump to consider them imo.
Also like I've said before, Oz is Trump's close friend who has been a steadfast supporter since 2016. Just like Walker, this probably means a lot to Trump, even if he isn't "Trumpy" on policy.

Oz very much has some of that Trump-in-2016-primary type of energy as well, which further helps his case.

Definitely. That's why I find it funny how some people are bringing up times from his TV show where he espoused some socially liberal views to "expose him" or whatever. Trump was just as much of a social liberal pre-2016 (and even post-2016 compared to most of the GOP) and voters didn't really care because voters care more about cultural conservatism rather than social conservatism.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm pretty confident Oz will win now. Trump just said he'll endorse in this primary and if he does, he's obviously gonna endorse Oz.

I don't know if it's super obvious but I think we can say he's not going to endorse McCormick.

Trump has been really worried about not picking a losing candidate lately. This primary is clearly a two-man race right now, Sands/Barnette are too far behind for Trump to consider them imo.
Also like I've said before, Oz is Trump's close friend who has been a steadfast supporter since 2016. Just like Walker, this probably means a lot to Trump, even if he isn't "Trumpy" on policy.

Oz very much has some of that Trump-in-2016-primary type of energy as well, which further helps his case.

Definitely. That's why I find it funny how some people are bringing up times from his TV show where he espoused some socially liberal views to "expose him" or whatever. Trump was just as much of a social liberal pre-2016 (and even post-2016 compared to most of the GOP) and voters didn't really care because voters care more about cultural conservatism rather than social conservatism.

Oz possibly getting elected is the closest equivalent we'd have to Trump getting elected in 2016 in quite a while. Media personality with high name rec+faces range of intra-party opponents+defeats them+wins general narrowly against an experienced opponent who has run in multiple elections before (this election is likely to be close either way). Sure, it would be a Senate race and not a presidential one, but the parallels would still be strong.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I'm pretty confident Oz will win now. Trump just said he'll endorse in this primary and if he does, he's obviously gonna endorse Oz.

I don't know if it's super obvious but I think we can say he's not going to endorse McCormick.

Trump has been really worried about not picking a losing candidate lately. This primary is clearly a two-man race right now, Sands/Barnette are too far behind for Trump to consider them imo.
Also like I've said before, Oz is Trump's close friend who has been a steadfast supporter since 2016. Just like Walker, this probably means a lot to Trump, even if he isn't "Trumpy" on policy.

Oz very much has some of that Trump-in-2016-primary type of energy as well, which further helps his case.

Definitely. That's why I find it funny how some people are bringing up times from his TV show where he espoused some socially liberal views to "expose him" or whatever. Trump was just as much of a social liberal pre-2016 (and even post-2016 compared to most of the GOP) and voters didn't really care because voters care more about cultural conservatism rather than social conservatism.

Oz possibly getting elected is the closest equivalent we'd have to Trump getting elected in 2016 in quite a while. Media personality with high name rec+faces range of intra-party opponents+defeats them+wins general narrowly against an experienced opponent who has run in multiple elections before (this election is likely to be close either way). Sure, it would be a Senate race and not a presidential one, but the parallels would still be strong.

Definitely. Also his primary opponent/s (McCormick) being backed by the typical "right-wing" of the party despite being much less populist on many issues (immigration, culture war stuff,  trade).
The only difference of course is that Oz isn't leading polls rn.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm pretty confident Oz will win now. Trump just said he'll endorse in this primary and if he does, he's obviously gonna endorse Oz.

I don't know if it's super obvious but I think we can say he's not going to endorse McCormick.

Trump has been really worried about not picking a losing candidate lately. This primary is clearly a two-man race right now, Sands/Barnette are too far behind for Trump to consider them imo.
Also like I've said before, Oz is Trump's close friend who has been a steadfast supporter since 2016. Just like Walker, this probably means a lot to Trump, even if he isn't "Trumpy" on policy.

Oz very much has some of that Trump-in-2016-primary type of energy as well, which further helps his case.

Definitely. That's why I find it funny how some people are bringing up times from his TV show where he espoused some socially liberal views to "expose him" or whatever. Trump was just as much of a social liberal pre-2016 (and even post-2016 compared to most of the GOP) and voters didn't really care because voters care more about cultural conservatism rather than social conservatism.

Oz possibly getting elected is the closest equivalent we'd have to Trump getting elected in 2016 in quite a while. Media personality with high name rec+faces range of intra-party opponents+defeats them+wins general narrowly against an experienced opponent who has run in multiple elections before (this election is likely to be close either way). Sure, it would be a Senate race and not a presidential one, but the parallels would still be strong.

Definitely. Also his primary opponent/s (McCormick) being backed by the typical "right-wing" of the party despite being much less populist on many issues (immigration, culture war stuff,  trade).
The only difference of course is that Oz isn't leading polls rn.

The GOP base, perhaps especially so now, cares more about "who will fight for you" than "x and y stances on Z issue". These are indeed related but are far from synonymous.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm pretty confident Oz will win now. Trump just said he'll endorse in this primary and if he does, he's obviously gonna endorse Oz.

I don't know if it's super obvious but I think we can say he's not going to endorse McCormick.

Trump has been really worried about not picking a losing candidate lately. This primary is clearly a two-man race right now, Sands/Barnette are too far behind for Trump to consider them imo.
Also like I've said before, Oz is Trump's close friend who has been a steadfast supporter since 2016. Just like Walker, this probably means a lot to Trump, even if he isn't "Trumpy" on policy.

What I don't get about some of the Trump enthusiasts' criticism of Oz is that almost all of them can be applied to Trump in 2015, but they literally just didn't care back then. Now they want a purist with a squeeky clean history lol. I think you're right in that Trump is not likely to care too much about policy purity and will go for someone who's both likely to win and has his populist style, so most likely Oz.