PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Sir Mohamed]

Is this my false impression not being from PA, or is Fetterman indeed just running a medicore campaign? I hope he'll improve, because I don't want Lamb nominated.

[Not Me, Us]

Is this my false impression not being from PA, or is Fetterman indeed just running a medicore campaign? I hope he'll improve, because I don't want Lamb nominated.

He's been running a very lazy campaign, and I say that as a supporter. He's been virtually invisible outside of Twitter and seems to think he's entitled to the nomination. I worry about him as a candidate in the general.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Is this my false impression not being from PA, or is Fetterman indeed just running a medicore campaign? I hope he'll improve, because I don't want Lamb nominated.

He's been running a very lazy campaign, and I say that as a supporter. He's been virtually invisible outside of Twitter and seems to think he's entitled to the nomination. I worry about him as a candidate in the general.

Exactly this, especially the idea about him being entitled to the nomination. It's very off-putting and part of what drove me to Malcolm.

[wbrocks67]

Is this my false impression not being from PA, or is Fetterman indeed just running a medicore campaign? I hope he'll improve, because I don't want Lamb nominated.

He's been running a very lazy campaign, and I say that as a supporter. He's been virtually invisible outside of Twitter and seems to think he's entitled to the nomination. I worry about him as a candidate in the general.

Exactly this, especially the idea about him being entitled to the nomination. It's very off-putting and part of what drove me to Malcolm.

Yeah I would say the 'lazy' description is very true. I've at least seen Kenyatta and Lamb out and about at a LOT of places; while Fetterman doesn't seem to be doing much and has now dodged multiple events.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With OZ not being the frontrunner, it's safe to say Fetterman is gonna win, the other RS can't get D votes

Cook and Sabato need to color PA as a D Pickup, I would rate WI as a D Pickup but since it's an inc they're not gonna do that until October


Evers, Shapiro and Whitmer are gonna win Barnes is fav due to Evers having a 51 percent Approvals

[Pheurton Skeurto]

And I oop--

https://twitter.com/malcolmkenyatta/status/1501621866267566086?s=20&t=aw5-0m...

[SnowLabrador]

My prediction: Fetterman wins the primary, has a slight lead in the general election polling, then loses by 5-7 points to McCormick.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

My prediction: Fetterman wins the primary, has a slight lead in the general election polling, then loses by 5-7 points to McCormick.

I still have a feeling Oz will win the primary. He seems like a much stronger candidate anyway.

[Continential]

My prediction: Fetterman wins the primary, has a slight lead in the general election polling, then loses by 5-7 points to McCormick.

I still have a feeling Oz will win the primary. He seems like a much stronger candidate anyway.

Well Oz has been doing jack and I've probably listened to 20 ads calling Oz a RINO at this point since the start of the year and like 1 Oz ad.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

My prediction: Fetterman wins the primary, has a slight lead in the general election polling, then loses by 5-7 points to McCormick.

I still have a feeling Oz will win the primary. He seems like a much stronger candidate anyway.

Well Oz has been doing jack and I've probably listened to 20 ads calling Oz a RINO at this point since the start of the year and like 1 Oz ad.

The establishment does fear him and is putting a TON of money into trying to stop him, similar to what they're doing to Vance in Ohio (ironic though given McCormick was a way bigger never-Trumper than Vance, and only a year ago too).
Oz putting more of his money into the race in the coming months can do something, honestly Oz isn't the strongest of a primary candidate, but I just can't see McCormick doing very well, he seems like an even more terrible candidate.

[wbrocks67]

Lamb is up on TV

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1501924394934972418

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My prediction: Fetterman wins the primary, has a slight lead in the general election polling, then loses by 5-7 points to McCormick.

I still have a feeling Oz will win the primary. He seems like a much stronger candidate anyway.

The Polk on this race had it 44/42 Fetterman Oz is not all that strong

[Xing]

At this point, I’m pretty much expecting Lamb to win the primary, and it might not be especially close. Fetterman has just been very sloppy and made many unforced errors, and while I’d probably prefer Kenyatta at this point, it doesn’t seem like he’s gained enough traction.

[wbrocks67]

At this point, I’m pretty much expecting Lamb to win the primary, and it might not be especially close. Fetterman has just been very sloppy and made many unforced errors, and while I’d probably prefer Kenyatta at this point, it doesn’t seem like he’s gained enough traction.

All of this. Fetterman's campaign has been a hot mess so far, and the crazy thing is that he pretty much had everything he needed to run a good campaign, but he's failed at every turn. Lots of unforced errors.

[Calthrina950]

At this point, I’m pretty much expecting Lamb to win the primary, and it might not be especially close. Fetterman has just been very sloppy and made many unforced errors, and while I’d probably prefer Kenyatta at this point, it doesn’t seem like he’s gained enough traction.

All of this. Fetterman's campaign has been a hot mess so far, and the crazy thing is that he pretty much had everything he needed to run a good campaign, but he's failed at every turn. Lots of unforced errors.

Primaries can certainly be a blessing, in that they can (although certainly not always) root out the weaker candidates. This primary certainly seems to be playing that function here.

[Morning in Atlas]

"Electability" and January 6th does not sound like a winning general election message.

Still holding out hope that we can pull a victory out of our asses. Maybe Lamb is good for the primary but for the general he seems like an accident waiting to happen.

[Calthrina950]

"Electability" and January 6th does not sound like a winning general election message.

Still holding out hope that we can pull a victory out of our asses. Maybe Lamb is good for the primary but for the general he seems like an accident waiting to happen.

I've said before that both Lamb and Fetterman are unimpressive. The Democratic primary field in Pennsylvania is a very weak one.

[Minnesota Mike]

Honest question, why all the negativity about the Dem candidates in PA and Fetterman in particular? There has been no GE polling I have seen and the little Dem primary polling has Fetterman in the lead. Is there some scandal or gaffe I am missing or is this just the same doom saying for Democrats that is going on for every other race on this site?

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Honest question, why all the negativity about the Dem candidates in PA and Fetterman in particular? There has been no GE polling I have seen and the little Dem primary polling has Fetterman in the lead. Is there some scandal or gaffe I am missing or is this just the same doom saying for Democrats that is going on for every other race on this site?

The jogger incident is a big dark spot on Fetterman's record. He's also run a very lazy campaign.

[Minnesota Mike]

Honest question, why all the negativity about the Dem candidates in PA and Fetterman in particular? There has been no GE polling I have seen and the little Dem primary polling has Fetterman in the lead. Is there some scandal or gaffe I am missing or is this just the same doom saying for Democrats that is going on for every other race on this site?

The jogger incident is a big dark spot on Fetterman's record. He's also run a very lazy campaign.

Isn't the jogger incident old news?

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Honest question, why all the negativity about the Dem candidates in PA and Fetterman in particular? There has been no GE polling I have seen and the little Dem primary polling has Fetterman in the lead. Is there some scandal or gaffe I am missing or is this just the same doom saying for Democrats that is going on for every other race on this site?

The jogger incident is a big dark spot on Fetterman's record. He's also run a very lazy campaign.

Isn't the jogger incident old news?

I mean, I'm not sure how much it means to the average real life voter, but it's a legitimate concern to know why he's so unwilling to apologize for it and why he felt it necessary to do it in the first place.

[Pulaski]

I'm a big Fetterman fan and I think the jogger incident is way overplayed. I'm much more worried about his positions on fracking; Pennsylvania is a big battleground on CSG, which will threaten the USA's water supplies long-term, and doesn't bring a whole lot of jobs to the state anyway. Fetterman needs to revise his position on fracking and come out strongly for the GND.

[Morning in Atlas]

Honest question, why all the negativity about the Dem candidates in PA and Fetterman in particular? There has been no GE polling I have seen and the little Dem primary polling has Fetterman in the lead. Is there some scandal or gaffe I am missing or is this just the same doom saying for Democrats that is going on for every other race on this site?

(fair warning, I'm one of the biggest Fetterman hacks on the forum. I'll let someone from the Lamb camp expand on make their case against Fetterman)

* Fetterman has been sleepwalking through the primary. I'm not even gonna try and bullsh*t here. Most of his campaign has been done online. He's foregone most major events and gone for an "every county" gimmick like Sestak did. There's also the aforementioned jogger story, which doesn't play well among black people and paternalist PMC-types. He's also aligned himself with the Bernie wing.

* Conor Lamb's campaign, as of now, is a culmination of the problems in the party. His primary campaign seems to be more centered around January 6th, rather than kitchen-table issues like inflation. Certainly plays well in the primary but isn't exactly a hot-button issue in the general. From my eyes it looks like a lot of the failed candidacies we've seen, like Sara Gideon and (in the primary) Amy McGrath. I keep saying this, but we won Georgia off of $15 and $1400, not Trump and Kavanaugh. There are also significant ideological questions about him, given that he only stopped voting like a Manchincrat once he got redistricted into friendlier territory.

To editorialize for a bit, these ideological questions are strong enough that had I been living in PA still, I would not vote for him in the general.

Of course, there's also the question of the state party rushing to endorse Lamb over Kenyatta. The unity candidate has been here all along! Malcolm Kenyatta is a progressive who's been working his ass off all cycle and getting endorsements. And you look at the sudden wave of high-status endorsements for Lamb and it looks more like a coronation based off of "electability" and fundraising than anything else.

From my personal view Conor Lamb represents many of the failed tropes about out-of-touch Democratic leadership. As the party has become more professionalized, experience and money are more valued more than actual campaign skills and evaluations. The machine still exerts control over the primary process and puts their thumbs on the scales for the most "moderate" candidate, despite moderates killing the Biden agenda. His campaign isn't totally devoid of kitchen-table issues but it's more centered on anti-Trumpism and anti-filibusterism.

[wbrocks67]

I mean, yes, Lamb's message (and all of their messages) are going to be different right now in the primary vs. the GE. So not sure why it matters that he's not focusing on things like inflation right now specifically when I'm sure whoever is the winner of the primary will definitely focus on all those things after May...

Not to mention, at the same time, I don't think it's correct to say his entire message revolves around the filibuster and 1/6, b/c that's just not true if you follow him.

Also just given Lamb's objective electoral history, not sure how he could really be called 'unimpressive'. Fetterman for better or worse just doesn't have that concrete argument since he's never been in a GE.

[Morning in Atlas]

I mean, yes, Lamb's message (and all of their messages) are going to be different right now in the primary vs. the GE. So not sure why it matters that he's not focusing on things like inflation right now specifically when I'm sure whoever is the winner of the primary will definitely focus on all those things after May...

Not to mention, at the same time, I don't think it's correct to say his entire message revolves around the filibuster and 1/6, b/c that's just not true if you follow him.

Also just given Lamb's objective electoral history, not sure how he could really be called 'unimpressive'. Fetterman for better or worse just doesn't have that concrete argument since he's never been in a GE.

Of course - it's not utterly devoid of kitchen-table issues like Gideon's or McGrath's campaigns were. And even I don't think it'll be in the general.

But from what I've seen he's pretty clearly centering social issues over economic issues.