Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Didn't she have some sort of scandal involving weak charges and/or covering a gang rape at a local high school?

[Roll Roons]

So basically no chance she closes the gap?

[wbrocks67]

So basically no chance she closes the gap?

That OP seems to be missing the "+ additional mail-ins" aspect too, but who knows how much there are.

Aren't same-day regs not being counted until today?

[Skill and Chance]

Early voting in Virginia appears to have stabilized at ~32% of the total post-COVID.  EV was notably more Republican this year and election day notably more Democratic.

Note that early voting prior to 2020 required an excuse.  

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/NickMinock/status/1724208079380574526
Looks like Biberaj did gain some more votes today with the last few mail ballots, but it's still not enough. Thank god.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If the 342 are all that's left, then the lead is (barely) too great to overcome. Pending recounts, of course.

[henster]

Looks like the Dem in HD82 will come about 70 votes short. HD82 is one of those frustratingly drawn districts, with Petersburg drawn in with a bunch of blood red counties. SD24 came within 1,000 votes of a Dem win but again blood red Poquoson was added in and gave the GOP just enough to win. HD57 had Powhatan dooming Gibson, subtle gerrymandering here and there from Sean Trende.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1724202870851903653

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1724202870851903653

great but what is there source for this?

If true it means there is zero shift in support for young voters to Republicans.

[Skill and Chance]

Wow, the 2nd closest Dem loss after HD-82 was Lily Franklin in HD-41 (Blacksburg).  This was a Trump 2020 district!  The 3rd closest Dem loss was Karen Jenkins in HD-89 (Chesapeake/Suffolk).  This was a Biden +2 2020 district!  These were both considered Lean R going into the election and did not receive top tier investment.  Both finished within 1%.

Compare this to HD-21 and HD-30, which did receive top tier investment and ended up 52R/47D and 53R/47D, respectively.

[wbrocks67]

So many unfortunate close losses for Dems. The GOP is lucky, this was almost a catastrophic situation for them moreso than just a bad one.

[Skill and Chance]

So many unfortunate close losses for Dems. The GOP is lucky, this was almost a catastrophic situation for them moreso than just a bad one.

If Dems performed 2% better everywhere, they would have 56(!) HoD seats and 23 senate seats.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

So many unfortunate close losses for Dems. The GOP is lucky, this was almost a catastrophic situation for them moreso than just a bad one.

If Dems performed 2% better everywhere, they would have 56(!) HoD seats and 23 senate seats.

I think David Owens (seat 56) wins by 1 vote (1.35 unrounded) if Democrats performed 2% better everywhere and the recount would be highly uncertain. Owens won by 2.0037%.

Republicans were about 4.8% away from a trifecta, which seems quite far despite only losing by chambers by 1 seat.

[Skill and Chance]

So many unfortunate close losses for Dems. The GOP is lucky, this was almost a catastrophic situation for them moreso than just a bad one.

If Dems performed 2% better everywhere, they would have 56(!) HoD seats and 23 senate seats.

I think David Owens (seat 56) wins by 1 vote (1.35 unrounded) if Democrats performed 2% better everywhere and the recount would be highly uncertain. Owens won by 2.0037%.

Republicans were about 4.8% away from a trifecta, which seems quite far despite only losing by chambers by 1 seat.

Yes, Dems were unexpectedly up >4% in their 50th HoD seat.  However, I think the overall expectation was that R's would be even further from a trifecta because SD-30 was never expected to be right of SD-31.  Also, there appears to have been a relative Dem overperformance in the mountains that counteracted the relative GOP overperformance in most of NOVA and still gave Dems the statewide PV.

 

[Aurelius2]

https://www.loudountimes.com/news/anderson-appears-to-prevail-in-commonwealths-attorney-race-biberaj-yet-to-concede/article_65e8e8d4-8281-11ee-9001-97b95f921cd1.html

Anderson leads Biberaj by 357 votes with 342 left to count. Of those, 132 are the subject of a dispute but presumably won't change the final outcome either way. Biberaj has not decided whether she will concede or request a recount when the counting is done. Since the margin is within 1% she would have the right to request a recount.

[Aurelius2]

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1724202870851903653

Even SVU? Have a hard time believing that one.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1724202870851903653

Even SVU? Have a hard time believing that one.

agreed. Id like a source for this claim.

[wbrocks67]

Ds were closer to a blowout than Rs were to a majority:

https://twitter.com/DjsokeSpeaking/status/1724252709883183540

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/ssurovell/status/1724476353271972009

[Aurelius2]

https://wjla.com/amp/news/local/virginia-general-election-2023-bob-anderson-unofficial-winner-loudoun-county-commonwealths-attorney-race-voters-close-to-call-provisional-ballots

With all votes counted, Anderson leads by 300 votes. No word yet from Biberaj on whether she will concede or seek a recount (as is her right under VA law since the margin is within 1%). Regardless, I don't see how a recount could close a gap of this size.

The current results are also unofficial, since the certification process has not yet taken place.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

https://wjla.com/amp/news/local/virginia-general-election-2023-bob-anderson-unofficial-winner-loudoun-county-commonwealths-attorney-race-voters-close-to-call-provisional-ballots

With all votes counted, Anderson leads by 300 votes. No word yet from Biberaj on whether she will concede or seek a recount (as is her right under VA law since the margin is within 1%). Regardless, I don't see how a recount could close a gap of this size.

The current results are also unofficial, since the certification process has not yet taken place.

Rs did well in local races across the country. Loudoun (I think they did well in the other races there too), holding Ds to 75-25 in Philadelphia, nearly flipping Allegheny Executive, flipping Manchester Mayor, etc.

[Duke of York]

https://wjla.com/amp/news/local/virginia-general-election-2023-bob-anderson-unofficial-winner-loudoun-county-commonwealths-attorney-race-voters-close-to-call-provisional-ballots

With all votes counted, Anderson leads by 300 votes. No word yet from Biberaj on whether she will concede or seek a recount (as is her right under VA law since the margin is within 1%). Regardless, I don't see how a recount could close a gap of this size.

The current results are also unofficial, since the certification process has not yet taken place.

Rs did well in local races across the country. Loudoun (I think they did well in the other races there too), holding Ds to 75-25 in Philadelphia, nearly flipping Allegheny Executive, flipping Manchester Mayor, etc.

I would not call that doing well. Loudoun is still in transition, Philadelphia was an open seat and neither candidate did much campaigning, nearly flipping means nothing and she also wasn't the best candidate, and Manchester mayor is non partisan and was one of the only flips.

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1724202870851903653

They're missing the ultra-conservative Patrick Henry College in Loudoun County, which definitely voted like Liberty (that said it's possible that because it's so small it doesn't have its own precinct to have this analysis)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1724202870851903653

No, this can’t be true! Young people have abandoned the Democratic Party because Genocide Joe supports Israel!

[heatcharger]

Nerds who voted in an off-off-year election are unrepresentative of young people (18-34) as a whole.