Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Gass3268]

I voted yesterday at our local early voting site. Hogan will win in Maryland, but he won't win our area.

[DataGuy]

Here is the early voting data from Texas yesterday, relative to the number of registered voters in the county and the number of votes cast on the same day in 2016. I broke it down by Trump and Clinton counties, to get a general idea of which regions might have been more "enthusiastic."

Trump Counties

Tarrant County: 3.44% of reg. voters, 93.7% of 2016.
Collin County: 4.61% of reg. voters, 99.5% of 2016.
Denton County: 4.45% of reg. voters, 94.0% of 2016.
Montgomery County: 3.43% of reg. voters, 84.1% of 2016.
Williamson County: 2.41% of reg. voters, 102% of 2016.
Galveston County: 2.83% of reg. voters, 82.5% of 2016.
Nueces County: 1.59% of reg. voters, 78.0% of 2016.

Clinton Counties

Harris County: 3.41% of reg. voters, 105% of 2016.
Dallas County: 2.53% of reg. voters, 110% of 2016.
Bexar County: 2.84% of reg. voters, 88.7% of 2016.
Travis County: 2.82% of reg. voters, 109% of 2016.
El Paso County: 1.45% of reg. voters, 85.2% of 2016.
Fort Bend County: 4.37% of reg. voters, 107% of 2016.
Hidalgo County: 1.85% of reg. voters, 90.5% of 2016.
Cameron County: 1.29% of reg. voters, 108% of 2016.

Averages

Trump County averages: 3.25% of reg. voters, 90.5% of 2016.
Clinton County averages: 2.57% of reg. voters, 100% of 2016.


Trump counties did better than Clinton counties in terms of basic turnout percentage, but Clinton counties clearly outperformed Trump counties when compared to the number of votes cast on the corresponding day in 2016. That suggests that relative enthusiasm was significantly higher yesterday in Democratic areas as opposed to Republican areas, which is something of a reversal from earlier last week. I'll be looking over the next few days to see if the momentum really has shifted, but I would say that yesterday probably wasn't a very great day for the GOP in Texas.

[Mehmentum]

^
That could just be an artifact of the weekend.  Though we did see the same thing in Nevada starting on Friday.  Monday will be interesting.

[Aurelio21]

@DataGuy:
Thx for the illuminating details, the Texas Tribune hasn't updated yet its totals.

When I am looking at these numbers: Are there precinct-level turnout absolute numbers anywhere available? E G the Campus EV?


Next weekend totals should at least give a hint who is leading the GOTV efforts before Election Day.
Please note that Harris, Dallas, Bexar and Travis County have about 5.5 Million registered voters. Nueces is 48/47 Trump/Clinton and Tarrant, Denton and Collin had the greatest swing away from Trump outside Utah.

[2016]

On AZ:

You all should know that in AZ between 70-80% of the Vote will be cast early. Only 30% (maybe even less) will be Election Day Vote.

[junior chįmp]

Early vote so far for #PivotalSwingCounty of Pinellas, Florida

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ralston has updated his models, which have moved toward the Democrats:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[2016]

Early vote so far for #PivotalSwingCounty of Pinellas, Florida

Yup, Indies will decide Senate & Governor in FL.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Another 5,100 people have early voted today here in Volusia County, much favorable to Democrats now

Early vote totals:
Democrats - 4,969
Republicans - 4,968
NPA/OTHER - 2,307

TOTAL: 12,244

VBM total:
26,340 Republicans
22,273 Democrats
12,381 NPA/OTHER

TOTAL: 60,994

Total votes cast so far: 73,238

[Gass3268]

Another 5,100 people have early voted today here in Volusia County, much favorable to Democrats now

Early vote totals:
Democrats - 4,969
Republicans - 4,968
NPA/OTHER - 2,307

TOTAL: 12,244

VBM total:
26,340 Republicans
22,273 Democrats
12,381 NPA/OTHER

TOTAL: 60,994

Total votes cast so far: 73,238

As a local, how do you think look there?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Another 5,100 people have early voted today here in Volusia County, much favorable to Democrats now

Early vote totals:
Democrats - 4,969
Republicans - 4,968
NPA/OTHER - 2,307

TOTAL: 12,244

VBM total:
26,340 Republicans
22,273 Democrats
12,381 NPA/OTHER

TOTAL: 60,994

Total votes cast so far: 73,238

As a local, how do you think look there?

Much more Democratic, I work on Gillum's campaign here, there's a LOT more enthusiasm for Gillum than Nelson, I think they'll keep Volusia close, but I think in the end DeSantis and Scott will win Volusia, I do hope I am wrong though, most of the cross over vote seems to be going to Nancy Soderberg.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Another 5,100 people have early voted today here in Volusia County, much favorable to Democrats now

Early vote totals:
Democrats - 4,969
Republicans - 4,968
NPA/OTHER - 2,307

TOTAL: 12,244

VBM total:
26,340 Republicans
22,273 Democrats
12,381 NPA/OTHER

TOTAL: 60,994

Total votes cast so far: 73,238

As a local, how do you think look there?

Much more Democratic, I work on Gillum's campaign here, there's a LOT more enthusiasm for Gillum than Nelson, I think they'll keep Volusia close, but I think in the end DeSantis and Scott will win Volusia, I do hope I am wrong though, most of the cross over vote seems to be going to Nancy Soderberg.

As a local in general who do you think EV overall looks?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Another 5,100 people have early voted today here in Volusia County, much favorable to Democrats now

Early vote totals:
Democrats - 4,969
Republicans - 4,968
NPA/OTHER - 2,307

TOTAL: 12,244

VBM total:
26,340 Republicans
22,273 Democrats
12,381 NPA/OTHER

TOTAL: 60,994

Total votes cast so far: 73,238

As a local, how do you think look there?

Much more Democratic, I work on Gillum's campaign here, there's a LOT more enthusiasm for Gillum than Nelson, I think they'll keep Volusia close, but I think in the end DeSantis and Scott will win Volusia, I do hope I am wrong though, most of the cross over vote seems to be going to Nancy Soderberg.

As a local in general who do you think EV overall looks?

Early voting is already through the roof compared to 2014, but Democrats won the in-person EV in 2014 by about 1,000 votes, right now things are looking good for us overall, but it;s still way too early to tell.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1056717680688848897

D+5.6 today in Washoe.

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1056717680688848897

D+5.6 today in Washoe.

Low turnout, but that means the Democratic lead in Washoe is about 1,100 overall. Republicans need to really get good numbers throughout the week to pull ahead.

[Hindsight was 2020]

When should Clark #’s drop?

[Dr. Arch]

When should Clark #’s drop?

In about an hour

[ON Progressive]

N U T

https://twitter.com/sorceror43/status/1056771823369519105?s=21

Dems adding 3.4k (!) to the Clark firewall despite it being a low turnout day.

[junior chįmp]

N U T

https://twitter.com/sorceror43/status/1056771823369519105?s=21

Dems adding 3.4k (!) to the Clark firewall despite it being a low turnout day.

Heller is done

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

N U T

https://twitter.com/sorceror43/status/1056771823369519105?s=21

Dems adding 3.4k (!) to the Clark firewall despite it being a low turnout day.

Holy sh*t

[Xing]

N U T

https://twitter.com/sorceror43/status/1056771823369519105?s=21

Lowest turnout yet, but that's enough to put the freiwal at nearly 25.5K, and the statewide lead to about 11.5K. Granted, I'm guessing Republicans will get better numbers in the rurals on Monday, but if Democrats are going to keep winning Clark by double digits and winning Washoe throughout the week, I think the analysis of this race being "very close" will start to change.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What is the Dem-statewide lead now?

[Ebsy]

I mean, it will still be a close race with a 35-40k lead, just one that favors Rosen/Sisolak.

[ON Progressive]

What is the Dem-statewide lead now?

11.5k.

Also, keep in mind the second Sunday is usually the worst day for turnout in the state and there was still 20k turnout in Clark.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What is the Dem-statewide lead now?

11.5k.

Also, keep in mind the second Sunday is usually the worst day for turnout in the state and there was still 20k turnout in Clark.

Not great for Heller, since he's the one who said high turnout hurts him lol.