Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1056973706856062976

[Gass3268]

Democrats keep gaining in Arizona.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1056975146559332352

[SCNCmod]

Democrats keep gaining in Arizona.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1056975146559332352

What % of "Others" typically vote Dem?  And what % of (Moderate) Republicans do polls show are likely to support Sinema?

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1056973706856062976

I'm going to need a whole farm full of eggs for November 7th. I'm so excited! I feel like a kid waiting for Christmas again.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1056973706856062976

I'm going to need a whole farm full of eggs for November 7th. I'm so excited! I feel like a kid waiting for Christmas again.

Can I also join you in putting eggs on Atlas poster faces about this race?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Don't count the eggs before they hatch, guys.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1056973706856062976

I'm going to need a whole farm full of eggs for November 7th. I'm so excited! I feel like a kid waiting for Christmas again.

Can I also join you in putting eggs on Atlas poster faces about this race?

Not just Atlas posters...countless pollsters, pundits, "experts"...the list goes on!

[Gass3268]

Democrats keep gaining in Arizona.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1056975146559332352

What % of "Others" typically vote Dem?  And what % of (Moderate) Republicans do polls show are likely to support Sinema?

The NYT poll which had McSalley up 2 had Sinema winning 13% of registered Republican, McSally winning 13% of registered Democrats and Sinema winning other 51-42. That was two weeks ago, but Sinema needs to improve on those numbers a bit to have a chance.

[izixs]

Democrats keep gaining in Arizona.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1056975146559332352

What % of "Others" typically vote Dem?  And what % of (Moderate) Republicans do polls show are likely to support Sinema?

The NYT poll which had McSalley up 2 had Sinema winning 13% of registered Republican, McSally winning 13% of registered Democrats and Sinema winning other 51-42. That was two weeks ago, but Sinema needs to improve on those numbers a bit to have a chance.

That kind of break down suggests presently a 52%-46% split in McSalley's favor.

[JG]

Democrats keep gaining in Arizona.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1056975146559332352

What % of "Others" typically vote Dem?  And what % of (Moderate) Republicans do polls show are likely to support Sinema?

The NYT poll which had McSalley up 2 had Sinema winning 13% of registered Republican, McSally winning 13% of registered Democrats and Sinema winning other 51-42. That was two weeks ago, but Sinema needs to improve on those numbers a bit to have a chance.

That kind of break down suggests presently a 52%-46% split in McSalley's favor.

Wouldn't the average and the median age (respectively 64 and 61.2) indicate a much older voters pool than the one on election day? If so, wouldn't such a close split be somewhat good news for Sinema?

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1056973706856062976

I'm going to need a whole farm full of eggs for November 7th. I'm so excited! I feel like a kid waiting for Christmas again.

Can I also join you in putting eggs on Atlas poster faces about this race?

Not just Atlas posters...countless pollsters, pundits, "experts"...the list goes on!

Don't forget to include me in the effort.

Ralston seems to be saying that NV-04 is close to being gone for Republicans, and that NV-03 is starting to look bad for them as well. In other words, water is wet.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1056973706856062976

I'm going to need a whole farm full of eggs for November 7th. I'm so excited! I feel like a kid waiting for Christmas again.

Can I also join you in putting eggs on Atlas poster faces about this race?

Not just Atlas posters...countless pollsters, pundits, "experts"...the list goes on!

Don't forget to include me in the effort.

Ralston seems to be saying that NV-04 is close to being gone for Republicans, and that NV-03 is starting to look bad for them as well. In other words, water is wet.

Also it looks like the Democrats have a lock on a supermajority in the Nevada Assembly and could get one in the Nevada Senate.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1056973706856062976

I'm going to need a whole farm full of eggs for November 7th. I'm so excited! I feel like a kid waiting for Christmas again.

Can I also join you in putting eggs on Atlas poster faces about this race?

Not just Atlas posters...countless pollsters, pundits, "experts"...the list goes on!

Don't forget to include me in the effort.

Ralston seems to be saying that NV-04 is close to being gone for Republicans, and that NV-03 is starting to look bad for them as well. In other words, water is wet.

I would be glad to join as well!

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1056973706856062976

I'm going to need a whole farm full of eggs for November 7th. I'm so excited! I feel like a kid waiting for Christmas again.

Can I also join you in putting eggs on Atlas poster faces about this race?

Not just Atlas posters...countless pollsters, pundits, "experts"...the list goes on!

Don't forget to include me in the effort.

Ralston seems to be saying that NV-04 is close to being gone for Republicans, and that NV-03 is starting to look bad for them as well. In other words, water is wet.

But the pundits told me that Danny Tarkanian of all people surely has a 50/50 chance of winning a swing district in a Democratic year. I have no reason to doubt their expertise.

[MT Treasurer]

*ahem* I had this race as Lean/Likely D even before xingkerui, IIRC.

[Nyvin]

So it looks like today and tomorrow is "now or never" time for NVGOP

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Day 3 of early voting here in Volusia:

7,171 votes were cast in person today,  yesterday Dems had a 1 vote advantage, today the GOP ended with up 285 votes

Vote totals:

VBM:
Total Returned - 60,994
Democrats - 22,273
Republicans - 26,340
Other - 12,381

In-person:
Republicans - 8,025
Democrats - 7,740
Other - 3,650
Total: 19,415

Total votes cast/mailed as of day 3: 80,409

[DataGuy]

Here is the Texas turnout report for Sunday.

Trump Counties

Tarrant County: 1.29% of reg. voters, 85.7% of 2016.
Collin County: 1.69% of reg. voters, 98.8% of 2016.
Denton County: 1.75% of reg. voters, 90.4% of 2016.
Montgomery County: 1.53% of reg. voters, 83.4% of 2016.
Williamson County: 1.52% of reg. voters, 89.1% of 2016.
Galveston County: 1.10% of reg. voters, 81.8% of 2016.
Nueces County: 0.50% of reg. voters, 74.7% of 2016.


Clinton Counties

Harris County: 1.47% of reg. voters, 95.7% of 2016.
Dallas County: 1.21% of reg. voters, 109% of 2016.
Bexar County: 1.36% of reg. voters, 83.4% of 2016.
Travis County: 1.61% of reg. voters, 116% of 2016.
El Paso County: 0.77% of reg. voters, 116% of 2016.
Fort Bend County: 1.28% of reg. voters, 96.5% of 2016.
Hidalgo County: 0.64% of reg. voters, 91.3% of 2016.
Cameron County: 0.07% of reg. voters, 282% of 2016.


Averages

Trump County average: 1.34% of reg. voters, 86.2% of 2016.
Clinton County average: 1.05% of reg. voters, 124% of 2016.


The % of 2016 numbers might be distorted somewhat by Cameron County, a very small border county whose mere 200-vote increase over 2016 translated into 282%. But even excluding Cameron, it's still 1.34% of reg. voters and 86.2% of 2016 for Trump counties versus 1.19% of reg. voters and 101% of 2016 for Clinton counties.

That means the % of reg. voter gap between Trump and Clinton counties is even smaller than Saturday's (in the Democrats' favor, to be clear) and the % of 2016 gap expanded (again, in the Democrats' favor).

As some of have noted, these might just be weekend numbers, but if these trends hold for today and the coming days I think the GOP just might be in serious trouble.

On the bright side for the GOP, TargetSmart's model for 10/28 still has them leading by 15 points.

[KingSweden]

@DataGuy, would it be reasonable to assume these numbers could be more damaging for the GOP in downballot contests than in the Senate race? Thinking Congress and Legislature especially, as I’m pretty confident in all those Harris Co. Republican execs losing

[RI]

Your daily TargetSmart update. Seem like the Dems had a good weekend:

D improvement
AK, AZ, CA, CO, FL, GA, MA, MD, NC, NE, NM, NV, OH, SD, TN, TX, VA

R improvement
AR, IN, MN, UT, WV

No change despite new votes
IL, MT

Top ten as percent of 2014 total vote
1. Texas, 69.9% (53.7 R)
2. Nevada, 62.1% (48.5 D)
3. Tennessee, 61.8% (64.4 R)
4. Utah, 57.0% (52.0 R)
5. Arizona, 55.5% (54.2 R)
6. Montana, 52.9% (46.7 R)
7. New Mexico, 46.6% (57.8 D)
8. Georgia, 46.3% (51.5 R)
9. Florida, 42.9% (49.7 R)
10. North Carolina, 38.7% (51.8 D)

New feature allows for a comparison against 2014 at this many days out (large percent increases likely mean there were very few early votes at all in 2014):

State	% Ch Votes	% Swing
Alaska	+4%	R+6.8
Arkansas	-1%	D+0.2
Arizona	+53%	D+3.3
California	+24%	D+7.8
Colorado	-8%	D+10.8
Delaware	+143%	D+13.6
Florida	+45%	D+8.4
Georgia	+170%	D+3.5
Iowa	-1%	D+3.2
Idaho	+70%	D+5.5
Illinois	+64%	D+7.8
Indiana	+178%	D+6.8
Kansas	+66%	D+8.8
Louisiana	+44%	R+12.4
Maryland	+87%	D+6.1
Maine	+41%	D+13.0
Michigan	+47%	D+0.8
Minnesota	+190%	R+1.7
Montana	+53%	D+1.6
North Carolina	+244%	R+0.4
North Dakota	+36%	R+1.7
Nebraska	+83%	R+12.1
New Jersey	+166%	D+6.1
New Mexico	+105%	D+15.5
Nevada	+113%	D+14.5
Ohio	+30%	R+0.1
Oregon	-5%	D+6.7
Pennsylvania	+135%	D+13.6
Rhode Island	+44%	R+3.5
South Dakota	+113%	D+4.5
Tennessee	+371%	R+3.7
Texas	+171%	D+7.3
Utah	+187%	D+12.3
Virginia	+201%	D+13.5
Washington	-9%	D+7.4
Wisconsin	+64%	D+4.5
West Virginia	+76%	R+3.8
Wyoming	+70%	D+7.9
National	+75%	D+3.3

[BundouYMB]

TargetSmart is hot garbage. They do some of the worst polling I've ever seen, and regularly miss races by 10-20 points. Their modeling has been equally useless in past elections, so I wouldn't give them the time of day.

[DataGuy]

@DataGuy, would it be reasonable to assume these numbers could be more damaging for the GOP in downballot contests than in the Senate race? Thinking Congress and Legislature especially, as I’m pretty confident in all those Harris Co. Republican execs losing

The majority of people don't give a great deal of thought to downballot races. Unless a downballot candidate is especially well-known in their own right, they're more often than not at the mercy of top-ballot candidates' coattails (or lack thereof). In Texas, I think the implications for downballot candidates will largely depend on who has the stronger influence: Ted Cruz or Greg Abbott? If people generally cast their downballot votes the same way they cast their Senate vote, that's bad news for the GOP.

But if the Senate race is really just an aberration mostly driven by unique personality factors and does not represent a permanent partisan shift, people might match their downballot votes with their gubernatorial votes and pull some struggling GOP candidates just over the finish line. In other words, if the Senate race is a one-off exception for many Republican-leaning voters solely because they don't like Ted Cruz or because they think Beto is just so specially great.

We'll see what happens, but unfortunately for the GOP most polls seem to be showing a stronger correlation with the Senate race and suggesting that Abbott is in fact the exception to the overall trend.

[Virginiá]

The majority of people don't give a great deal of thought to downballot races. Unless a downballot candidate is especially well-known in their own right, they're more often than not at the mercy of top-ballot candidates' coattails (or lack thereof) the voter's feelings about the president. In Texas, I think the implications for downballot candidates will largely depend on who has the stronger influence: Ted Cruz or Greg Abbott? If people generally cast their downballot votes the same way they cast their Senate vote, that's bad news for the GOP.

FTFY

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Total early voting results so far here in FL:

Republicans:  1,760,354 - 39.3%
Democrats: 1,821,290 - 40.7%
NPA/OTHER: 897,830 - 20%

Total so far: 4,479,474

[DataGuy]

The majority of people don't give a great deal of thought to downballot races. Unless a downballot candidate is especially well-known in their own right, they're more often than not at the mercy of top-ballot candidates' coattails (or lack thereof) the voter's feelings about the president. In Texas, I think the implications for downballot candidates will largely depend on who has the stronger influence: Ted Cruz or Greg Abbott? If people generally cast their downballot votes the same way they cast their Senate vote, that's bad news for the GOP.

FTFY

Interesting study, but I have my doubts that it's entirely true. I recently did a detailed analysis of final results vs. the GCB and found that, in the context of House races, which party controls the House of Representatives itself on Election Day has a considerably stronger impact than who controls the White House.

Not to mention that "voters' feelings about the president" might already be somewhat baked into the Senate race.