Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Dr. Arch]

You guys learned nothing from early voting projections in 2016, huh? It's only useful in very few states, like NV.

[Dr. Arch]

You guys learned nothing from early voting projections in 2016, huh? It's only useful in very few states, like NV.

Regardless of what you think the results will be, the turnout in a lot of states is crazy high.

It certainly doesn't tell you the results, but it is interesting and informative.

On the other hand, if you don't find it interesting, then feel free to go away. Nobody is making you read this thread.

You agree that it doesn't tell you results, but the conversations here indicate the opposite sentiment.

And no, I'm not going away.

[Dr. Arch]

You guys learned nothing from early voting projections in 2016, huh? It's only useful in very few states, like NV.

They're certainly not that useful for making actual projections, but I think they can alert us to some possibilities, for example, the idea that high Democratic turnout might not be enough to cause a blue wave if Republican turnout is also very high.

Perhaps, but those can be disgruntled or disaffected Rs voting D for any number of reasons. The identity of the complete electorate is unknown until Election Day, and there are many turnout gaps that can't be identified when it comes to rural areas as well. The confounds are enormous when they are summed up.

Even when you're looking at parallels, you don't know if they're valid because they may not be analogous.

[Dr. Arch]

Hopefully we get more of these so that the GOP knows to stay home

https://twitter.com/DrTurleyTalks/status/1054858033359151107

"Nightmare scenario" lol. Well, if Democrats end up losing in 2018, it will be a "nightmare scenario" for this country, not just Democrats.

[Dr. Arch]

Yes, now they're in, so it's 3243 lead for Dems now statewide.

Holy f**king sh*t this is a disaster.

 

[Dr. Arch]

Yes, now they're in, so it's 3243 lead for Dems now statewide.

Holy f**king sh*t this is a disaster.

Chill. They're still ahead and treading water. If they end up behind statewide, then maybe it'll be time to worry.

ED vote is typically Republican in NV. Ralston said Democrats need to build up a 15K lead in early voting to be ahead. They're nowhere near on track to.

Except voting behavior is erratic and doesn't follow a trend or a mode over the course of a week, as each day is characteristically different, and every week is also characteristically different as election day nears. Take a breather and think, my friend.

[Dr. Arch]

Rosen is still probably going to win and AZ is still a toss up, but it is true that these EV numbers aren't really consistent with any kind of massive Democratic tidal wave. Not that I ever thought that would happen to begin with.

It is also possible that the states we're seeing are different and 'locked in' to a certain maxed out margin for Ds, while more swingy states (like WI) will be erratically different from 2014 or 2016.

Yes, now they're in, so it's 3243 lead for Dems now statewide.

Holy f**king sh*t this is a disaster.

Chill. They're still ahead and treading water. If they end up behind statewide, then maybe it'll be time to worry.

ED vote is typically Republican in NV. Ralston said Democrats need to build up a 15K lead in early voting to be ahead. They're nowhere near on track to.

Except voting behavior is erratic and doesn't follow a trend or a mode over the course of a week, as each day is characteristically different, and every week is also characteristically different as election day nears. Take a breather and think, my friend.

Oh come on. We have seen a clear pattern throughout these days, even if there are minor fluctuations from day to day. You know I'm not a concern troll, but at some point you have to take a serious look at the data.

That is a serious look at the data. Read my response again.

[Dr. Arch]

I said this would happen, and here we are.

[Dr. Arch]

Dane County looks absolutely wonderful. If Democrats get Dallet margins from Dane, Republicans are done.

[Dr. Arch]

Indiana:



Marion County absentee voting higher than in 2016 presidential election

O__O

[Dr. Arch]

When should Clark #’s drop?

In about an hour

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/sorceror43/status/1057138599936720896

Bg day for the Dems.

 

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/sorceror43/status/1057495240628670465

Dems gain 2.4K in Clark, winning by 9.6%. Freiwal is at almost 31K.

And today was supposed to be the last good day for Republicans. It's looking rather bleak for them at this point.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/CA_120/status/1057179633903296513

My God... they're voting... all of them.

Have us Millennials finally been slapped enough to wake up, akin to what happened in the UK recently?

[Dr. Arch]

YASSSSS

@Antonio: Told you so

[Dr. Arch]

An Atlanta EV location 2.5 hours after the polls closed last night:

https://twitter.com/TIAreports/status/1058532344099942402

Wowza

[Dr. Arch]

Still no Clark #?

Nope

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1058726829773582336

Holy friggin moly. GG

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059447370386206720

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059446261017952257

You know the WOW counties will show up along with Dane County, but it's great to see Milwaukee up there above the state average. Maybe Mandela Barnes on the ticket is helping drive some turnout in the black northside of the city. Also it's great to see Menominee County up there, usually they drop off during midterms.

It's looking good! Menominee is maxing out; MKE is meeting the average, and Dane is off the charts.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059447370386206720

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059446261017952257

You know the WOW counties will show up along with Dane County, but it's great to see Milwaukee up there above the state average. Maybe Mandela Barnes on the ticket is helping drive some turnout in the black northside of the city. Also it's great to see Menominee County up there, usually they drop off during midterms.

It's looking good! Menominee is maxing out; MKE is meeting the average, and Dane is off the charts.

Dane is literally a point away from the average, while Waukesha and Ozaukee outpace Milwaukee. What are you talking about? Great numbers for Walker.

The fact that Milwaukee is in the same range as Waukesha for a midterm election is incredible. The WOW counties and Dane County always show up, Milwaukee does not. If that holds tomorrow, it's a big deal.

He doesn't know a thing about politics, let alone politics in Wisconsin, so it's not even worth responding to.

As it stands, the early vote looks good for Democrats, but ED will be the most important in Wisconsin, as it is in most states.