Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Virginiá]

Interesting study, but I have my doubts that it's entirely true. I recently did a detailed analysis of final results vs. the GCB and found that, in the context of House races, which party controls the House of Representatives itself on Election Day has a considerably stronger impact than who controls the White House.

Not to mention that "voters' feelings about the president" might already be somewhat baked into the Senate race.

Yea, tbh, I was just trying to be cute. That applies much more to low-level partisan races like legislative races, but less so to high-profile statewide races like a Senate seat, and to a lesser extent House of Reps. Although even for the House, it seems pretty apparent that GOP incumbents who spent the past few cycles or more holding on are now endangered simply because a semi-unpopular Democratic president was replaced by a semi-unpopular Republican president. And whereas Governors are sometimes immune, that doesn't count as much in open gubernatorial races, where Democrats are suddenly competitive or seemingly put away races they just couldn't cut it in under an unpopular Democratic president. Michigan, for example.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

If you look at the early votes in Tennessee so far, by far the biggest increase of voting since 2014 has come in the biggest counties.

Here are the percentage point increases in Tennessee's six biggest counties compared to 2014 tallies:

1. Shelby: +205.2%
2. Davidson: +256.2%
3. Knox: +177.1%
4. Williamson: +251.9%
5. Hamilton: +222.5%
6. Rutherford: +202%

Together these six counties make up almost half of all statewide votes cast so far, or 458,000 out of a total of 968,000.

The statewide average has been +183.1% so far, with some smaller counties not even having reached a +100% increase so far.

Source: ElectProject on Twitter

Hmm, maybe the early vote could be OK for Bredesen if a lot of the votes in the big counties like Shelby/Davidson/Williamson are suburban Rs that are voting for Bredesen despite normally being Rs.

But if Blackburn is cleaning up with suburban Rs, then Bredesen seems doomed.

[Gass3268]

Marc Caputo has been concern trolling that the African American numbers don't look good, but Steve Schale reminds everyone that the current 11% is higher than 2014 and 2016 at this point.

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1057096582250881024

[Gass3268]

Also, I don't think Beto wins, but this is nuts:

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1057097823953567744

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Also, I don't think Beto wins, but this is nuts:

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1057097823953567744

The thing to remember is it is compared to the 2014 baseline. And Dem turnout in TX was absurdly horrible, even for TX.

So yes, better than 2014. But still not good enough. I wish TargetSmart had a 2016 comparison, at least for TX.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1057101948590022656

Continuing weak numbers from the GOP in Washoe. They should be running up the margin today and tomorrow.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1057101948590022656

Continuing weak numbers from the GOP in Washoe. They should be running up the margin today and tomorrow.

Wow, that's weak.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1057101948590022656

Continuing weak numbers from the GOP in Washoe. They should be running up the margin today and tomorrow.

Ouch.

[Brittain33]

Republicans did win absentees in Washoe by a few hundred votes, though.

October 29, 2018

    Democratic - 966
    Republican - 1,235
    Nonpartisan - 496
    Total - 2,697

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1057101948590022656

Continuing weak numbers from the GOP in Washoe. They should be running up the margin today and tomorrow.

The absentees helped make it a +301 GOP day overall in Washoe. Still though, Dems lead by 819 in Washoe overall.

[Ebsy]

There were barely any absentees counted in Washoe over the weekend so thinking that it is just a ballot backlog being counted today.

[Gass3268]

There were barely any absentees counted in Washoe over the weekend so thinking that it is just a ballot backlog being counted today.

This is correct.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Continuing weak numbers from the GOP in Washoe. They should be running up the margin today and tomorrow.

Wow, that's weak.

If the #s from Clark today are similarly lackluster for the GOP, I think we can get ready to call NV for Rosen.

[riceowl]

Harris county numbers weren't any bigger than last Monday despite increased hours, but they aren't decreasing.
Odd surges in some places (ie, the Fiesta Mart where I voted increased from ~1200 to 1800 from last Monday).

[Ebsy]

Turnout appears to be down or flat in the couple rurals that have reported in Nevada thus far.

[KingSweden]

Turnout appears to be down or flat in the couple rurals that have reported in Nevada thus far.

Do you have the link to the week 2 NV SOS chart?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

From the sound of it, today was pretty disappointing for the GOP.

[Xing]

Douglas has to be wrong, so I'm guessing the Republican numbers are a bit better than they currently look. Turnout is quite a bit up from Saturday in the rurals, but quite a bit down from Monday a week ago. I'd say that if Democrats can at least gain 2K from Clark today, they'll offset the gain from rurals/Washoe absentees. They'll probably need at least an 8% margin to do so, though, and Ralston is expecting Republicans to do well in Clark today (we'll see.) A slight loss statewide today wouldn't be terrible, since this is supposed to be one of the best days for Republicans, and Democrats are almost certainly keeping their lead above 10K.

Here's the chart for week 2: https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5976

[Gass3268]

The turnout in the rurals look closer to the end of last week, rather than the crazy numbers at the beginning of the week.

[Ebsy]

There apparently is going to be a delay on Clark County tonight.

[ON Progressive]

There apparently is going to be a delay on Clark County tonight.

BOOOOOOOO.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/sorceror43/status/1057138599936720896

Bg day for the Dems.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/sorceror43/status/1057138599936720896

Bg day for the Dems.

 

[ON Progressive]

That doesn’t seem too bad for what is traditionally a good GOP day.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/sorceror43/status/1057138599936720896

Bg day for the Dems.