Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Are those numbers correct for Oconto County (70%+ for Underly)??

Definitely an error since I checked the county site and nothing new has reported.

[Nyvin]

Just learned Betsy Devos not only endorsed Kerr but was actually a major donor too...BLEH!  So happy Underly won now

[Drew]

AP calls the District 2 court race for Grogan.  Gill leading 56%-44% w/53% in the 3rd.

Elsewhere, Dane County executive Joe Parisi is on his way to reelection by a nearly 80%-20% margin.  His opponent stopped campaigning weeks ago due to a personal issue.  Many of his opponent's voters are likely protest voters due to school reopenings and such.  This roughly matches Underly's margin in the county and Kerr advocated reopening.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So some bad news is that the judicial race in District 3 seems to have the margin widening with Gregory Gill (conservative-backed candidate) defeating Rick Cveykus (liberal-backed candidate.) The most Democratic parts of the district seem to be mostly out but I don't think it's going to be enough.

[Devils30]

GOP won the 13th Senate district but looks like a massive underperformance to me. What happened?

[Matty]

GOP won the 13th Senate district but looks like a massive underperformance to me. What happened?

1) superintendent race brought out more dems than reps

2) there was a conservative independent who ran an aggressive write in campaign and got 6% of the vote

[walleye26]

GOP won the 13th Senate district but looks like a massive underperformance to me. What happened?

3 things.
1) State Super is a Dem electorate.
2) The Dem campaigned super hard, and she was also from the most Red part of Waukesha county, Oconomowoc. She won 39% in Waukesha county, so some of her Republican friends probably voted for her.
3) A guy ran with a literal party name of “Trump Conservative” and got about 5% of the vote here, and a GOP primary opponent started a write in campaign, getting what appears to be a bit over 1%. So a few conservatives split up what should have been 57-43 to make it 50-43.

[Drew]

GOP won the 13th Senate district but looks like a massive underperformance to me. What happened?

There was a 3rd party conservative that siphoned away votes, plus I'm guessing Underly had a coattail effect.  She's even winning Jefferson county with 1 precinct still outstanding.

[walleye26]

I also should mention the Dane county portion included Deerfield, Deforest, and Windsor, which are growing fast and combined have added probably a few hundred people since the last election.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Milwaukee's turnout looks absolutely horrible, even for a off year election

MKE turnout is usually atrocious in off year elections.

Funnily enough the low Milwaukee turnout might've actually benefited Underly. First of all Kerr is from Milwaukee County and seems to be overperforming Trump slightly just as Underly is massively overperforming Biden in the rural area she's superintendent of although that's obviously much less important electorally. Second as odd as it sounds Milwaukee might actually be to the right of the state on some education issues, or at least more aligned with the conservative position. As noted before Milwaukee has a voucher program that was established because it's very popular with non-white families, and charter schools are often also popular with non-white communities as well. So the voters not turning out are not necessarily voters prone to vote for Underly, at least that heavily.

[Nyvin]

Republicans really bombed in SD-13,  only winning by ~7% or so in a district Trump carried by 19%

[Gass3268]

Underly won Brown Deer, the school district Kerr served as superintendent, 1,310 to 971.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Underly won Brown Deer, the school district Kerr served as superintendent, 1,310 to 971.

Not THAT surprising since it's an overwhelmingly D area. Based on those numbers Underly definitely underperformed Biden. Of course Underly is killing it in her rural school district.

[Drew]

AD-89 race is called by AP for the GOP.  Current margin is 61%-39% with half the precincts in.  Perhaps an underperformance here as well.  The former rep Nygren won it with 69% (nice) in 2020 and 67% in 2018. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

AD-89 race is called by AP for the GOP.  Current margin is 61%-39% with half the precincts in.  Perhaps an underperformance here as well.  The former rep Nygren won it with 69% (nice) in 2020 and 67% in 2018. 

Based on a rough look at the towns included it appears Trump won it with similar margins in 2020 too, so yeah an underperformance.

[Gass3268]

While I wouldn't take that much from this race, the fact that a non-incumbent liberal did better than Biden in at least Ozaukee and Waukesha counties is a big deal. This typically does not happen in non-partisan elections.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Thank God for Madison.

[Drew]

So some bad news is that the judicial race in District 3 seems to have the margin widening with Gregory Gill (conservative-backed candidate) defeating Rick Cveykus (liberal-backed candidate.) The most Democratic parts of the district seem to be mostly out but I don't think it's going to be enough.

The AP has now called the race for Gill.  So the two more conservative appeals judicial candidates won tonight.

[Matty]

While I wouldn't take that much from this race, the fact that a non-incumbent liberal did better than Biden in at least Ozaukee and Waukesha counties is a big deal. This typically does not happen in non-partisan elections.

Need more data to see if it matters or not.

We all remember the "non-partisan" Wisconsin election in mid 2020...


I can totally tell that a lot of yall are looking for any evidence you can find that 2022 will be the dems 2002.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I mean If I was republican hack, I would be pointing out that Tony Evers won 70-30 lasttime  in 2017 while here the margins were far more narrow so this election shows that 2022 is going to be a disaster for democrats. Weird non-partisan races with Abysmall turnout and both candidates being democrats aren't great indicators fo anything

[EastwoodS]

I mean If I was republican hack, I would be pointing out that Tony Evers won 70-30 lasttime  in 2017 while here the margins were far more narrow so this election shows that 2022 is going to be a disaster for democrats. Weird non-partisan races with Abysmall turnout and both candidates being democrats aren't great indicators fo anything

If you take anything meaningful from this superintendent race, Republican or Democrat, you’re just a cringy human.

[Blair]

I might just be buying their spin but the Wisconsin Democratic Party does at least seem to know what they're doing- I wonder how much of a difference this makes, especially as the GOP state party was heralded for years...

[MT Treasurer]

You know how abysmal GOP turnout was in this election? Underly wins comfortably even if you take away Dane and Milwaukee Counties. With this & that county map in mind, this D vs. D election was about as representative of a November regular election electorate as some random non-partisan mayoral election.

[wbrocks67]

Republicans really bombed in SD-13,  only winning by ~7% or so in a district Trump carried by 19%

Looks like GOP has a turnout problem right now... who couldve thunk.

Of course this could totally not be indicative of anything. But will be interesting to see in the post-Trump era.

[redjohn]

This extends the Democratic winning streak even longer. Republicans/conservatives haven't won a single statewide race since spring 2019. They haven't won a statewide race by more than a percentage point since 2016. Clearly it doesn't mean anything for 2022, but Wisconsin isn't Iowa/Ohio and the state is still more than willing to vote for liberals.