Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

More on air defense:

U.S. looks to shift air defense systems from Middle East to Ukraine, Raytheon chief says

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/01/raytheon-air-defense-ukraine-middle-east-00071687

The U.S. is working with Middle Eastern countries to move a handful of their air defense systems to Ukraine, according to the CEO of Raytheon Technologies.

The goal is to send National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems to Ukraine in the next three to six months, CEO Greg Hayes said in an interview. The U.S. would then backfill those systems with new NASAMS in the Middle East over the next 24 months.

[...]

It takes two years to build NASAMS because of the lead time required to buy electronic components and rocket motors, Hayes said.

Oman signed a contract with Raytheon in 2014 for NASAMS, with delivery in 2016. The U.S. cleared Qatar to buy NASAMS in 2019. The government notifications did not outline how many systems Oman and Qatar would buy.

I'm not optimistic, but in an ideal world:

I think if we haven’t already, immediately cut off all the weapons sales and aid that we give them.

"If you want to cut production, you won't need so many Patriot missiles to protect all those refineries." (Unfortunately, this isn't going to happen.)

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1598760191259967501

[President Johnson]

Genosse Olaf is wasting his time with this guy.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1598733570717229056

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-12-02/ukraine-bans-religious-organizations-links-russia?_amp=true

This imo is a complete overreach and should not happen . If any figure in the church is collaborating with Russia then arrest them , but don’t shut down churches as that’s a violation of religious liberty .

 

[AndyHogan14]

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-12-02/ukraine-bans-religious-organizations-links-russia?_amp=true

This imo is a complete overreach and should not happen . If any figure in the church is collaborating with Russia then arrest them , but don’t shut down churches as that’s a violation of religious liberty .

 

The problem is that the Moscow Patriarchate is an extension of the Russian state; it really isn't a religious organization but a tool for Moscow to assert control over countries on its periphery. Orthodox services certainly aren't banned, just those taking orders from Kirill and thus, Putin.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-12-02/ukraine-bans-religious-organizations-links-russia?_amp=true

This imo is a complete overreach and should not happen . If any figure in the church is collaborating with Russia then arrest them , but don’t shut down churches as that’s a violation of religious liberty .

 

The problem is that the Moscow Patriarchate is an extension of the Russian state; it really isn't a religious organization but a tool for Moscow to assert control over countries on its periphery. Orthodox services certainly aren't banned, just those taking orders from Kirill and thus, Putin.

Id just arrest those pastors then not shut down the churches. Shutting houses of worship doesnt seem like a good precedent to create so you can effectively do this by arresting the pastors who work with the Russian state for treason.

[AndyHogan14]

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-12-02/ukraine-bans-religious-organizations-links-russia?_amp=true

This imo is a complete overreach and should not happen . If any figure in the church is collaborating with Russia then arrest them , but don’t shut down churches as that’s a violation of religious liberty .

 

The problem is that the Moscow Patriarchate is an extension of the Russian state; it really isn't a religious organization but a tool for Moscow to assert control over countries on its periphery. Orthodox services certainly aren't banned, just those taking orders from Kirill and thus, Putin.

Id just arrest those pastors then not shut down the churches. Shutting houses of worship doesnt seem like a good precedent to create so you can effectively do this by arresting the pastors who work with the Russian state for treason.

I would assume that the buildings will just be transferred over to the Kyiv Patriarchate. All other Russian assets in Ukraine have been seized or nationalized so it makes sense to remove the last Russian assets in the country from the control of Putin. With that said, being that many leaders of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate) declared independence from Moscow at the start of the war, they will likely be allowed to continue in union with Kyiv or independently once they are properly vetted.

[dead0man]

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/vladimir-putin-fell-down-stairs-at-home-and-soiled-himself/

Russian leader Vladimir Putin fell down the stairs at his official residence and soiled himself, according to claims made on a Telegram channel with purported links to his inner circle.

Putin, 70, suffered the fall at home on Wednesday evening, the Telegram channel SVR claimed.

He suffered a bruised coccyx after falling down five steps, rolled on to his side and then down a further two steps.

The channel claimed he soiled himself due to the sharp impact and claims he is suffering gastrointestinal cancer, with no concrete evidence to support the claim.

I mean....

good news if true

[Cashew]

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-12-02/ukraine-bans-religious-organizations-links-russia?_amp=true

This imo is a complete overreach and should not happen . If any figure in the church is collaborating with Russia then arrest them , but don’t shut down churches as that’s a violation of religious liberty .

 

Meh, they are not actually targeting a belief system, but rather a institution in a region of the world where different orthodox churches exist based not on religious differences but rather links to their state or ethnicity. I mean aside from the obvious political issue of a Russian church vs a national Ukrainian one, what doctrinal differences exist that are being imposed upon the followers of the Moscow patriarchate? Is being force to change religious institution as a result of crossfire from nationalist religious policy an infringement of religious freedom?

[Frodo]

The only conditions Putin will agree to in any negotiations is that his illegal annexations are internationally recognized, and no Russian pull-out from Ukraine:

Ukraine war: Russia demands annexations recognised before talks

Obviously his diplomatic overtures are not serious.  Russia clearly thinks it can still win this war, so it is apparent this matter must be decided on the battlefield.  

[parochial boy]

This feels... noteworthy if it's true-

https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1598270674577260544

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1599181531510996993

[Virginiá]

FWIW Chuck Pfarrer has become (or always was) kind of a joke on this war. I'm not super interested in this stuff outside of the Ukrainian war, but half the time I read one of Chuck's tweets these days, the things he is saying are either brazenly wrong or later turn out to be wrong, usually because he jumped the gun and then of course rarely corrects himself. He has for instance claimed Ukraine has used ATACMS numerous times despite them not having it and there being no proof of it and both governments denying the transfer of it. Or how many times he says Ukraine has taken control of part of highway P-66, only for his later reports to basically pretend it never happened. There's a reason people joke that Chuck Pfarrer isn't in the OSINT community, he's in the RUMINT community.

Anyway, just saying, take what he says with a grain of salt.

[NOVA Green]

So put this in your pipe and toke it...

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1599193148097445889?s=20&t=pavNiXfl...

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-3

Might jive with this?

The path to a Ukrainian victory — or at least the most obvious path — will probably cut south, through the muddy and flat fields of the Zaporizhzhia region.

Much attention is now shifting here, to the southern front line less than 100 miles north of the Sea of Azov, where Ukrainians are eager to sever the “land bridge” connecting mainland Russia to Crimea, which Russia invaded and illegally annexed in 2014. Kyiv is also intent on liberating cities such as Melitopol and Enerhodar, where the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is located.

Victor Dadak, a deputy battalion commander for Ukraine’s territorial defense, would not say if the country’s forces would launch their next big offensive here. “It’s a military secret,” Dadak said. “But I think in a few days the military secret will be revealed.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/03/after-kherson-ukraines-military-ponders-new-push-south-east/

[Hindsight was 2020]

FWIW Chuck Pfarrer has become (or always was) kind of a joke on this war. I'm not super interested in this stuff outside of the Ukrainian war, but half the time I read one of Chuck's tweets these days, the things he is saying are either brazenly wrong or later turn out to be wrong, usually because he jumped the gun and then of course rarely corrects himself. He has for instance claimed Ukraine has used ATACMS numerous times despite them not having it and there being no proof of it and both governments denying the transfer of it. Or how many times he says Ukraine has taken control of part of highway P-66, only for his later reports to basically pretend it never happened. There's a reason people joke that Chuck Pfarrer isn't in the OSINT community, he's in the RUMINT community.

Anyway, just saying, take what he says with a grain of salt.

Fair enough but wartranslared who is really good on this stuff seems to be backing up what Chuck is saying a bit
https://mobile.twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1599193682531475458

[Virginiá]

Was more of a general gripe, not specific to movement on the Kreminna front. I just see his tweets retweeted or posted here and sometimes it's fine, and sometimes it isn't, but always because he isn't cautious or even mildly conservative about his claims and doesn't seem to have much of a standard of proof.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1599371689128734721

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1599335366992875520

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1599335366992875520

As I've said before, Putin initially miscalculated regarding Ukraine, not Western countries.

[The Dowager Mod]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1599564035464142849

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1599038940576563200?s=20&t=KbGJYZ...

[Storr]

"Kharkiv. Cemetery of shells. I am the author of the photo. Please, when you see this photo under a different signature, ask to correct it. We will not build a rule of law by neglecting copyright."

https://twitter.com/Liberov/status/1599336173058818049?s=20&t=e5qlmkELZ4xFwg...

[The Dowager Mod]

Deep strike.
https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1599667237937623041

[Woody]

Nationwide airstrikes today:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1599755691173892097?cxt=HHwWgsCivejUvLMsA...
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1599755527265087491?cxt=HHwWhsDToaPLvLMsA...
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1599753983026819073?cxt=HHwWgsCj5bHxu7MsA...
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1599742979396497411?cxt=HHwWhsDTrfLwtrMsA...
https://twitter.com/Defense785/status/1599759999441379329

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1599748384033673217
https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1599749349025599489
https://twitter.com/CimmeroIl/status/1599742188698865667
https://twitter.com/ReggieMeezer/status/1599739562070200320
https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/status/1599754837243330560