Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Bidenworth2020]

New lows for Trump on Coronavirus Handling Approval at 42/54 according to the Navigator Research Tracking Poll--

https://navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Navigator-Daily-Tracker-Topline-F04.22.20.pdf

Approval Rating also the worst since Mid-March at 42/55.

[wbrocks67]

Trump has a 32/66 approval among 18-29 year olds, according to new Harvard Institute of Politics survey.

https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/harvard-youth-poll

Most interesting, it's essentially the *same* exact result as the 18-29 year old vote in the 2018 midterms (67% Dem, 32% Rep)

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP, April 20-21, polls of registered voters


WI (N=1415)

Approve 45
Disapprove 50

Biden 50, Trump 45


PA (N=1251)

Approve 44
Disapprove 53

Biden 51, Trump 44


MI (N=1277)

Approve 45
Disapprove 52

Biden 51, Trump 44


NC (N=1275)

Approve 45
Disapprove 50

Biden 49, Trump 46

[pbrower2a]

PPP, April 20-21, polls of registered voters


WI (N=1415)

Approve 45
Disapprove 50

Biden 50, Trump 45


PA (N=1251)

Approve 44
Disapprove 53

Biden 51, Trump 44


MI (N=1277)

Approve 45
Disapprove 52

Biden 51, Trump 44


NC (N=1275)

Approve 45
Disapprove 50

Biden 49, Trump 46

North Carolina is within the margin of error in a match-up, but just barely. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are not.

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

For an impeached president, who was hounded by an aggressive and open ended 3 year Russian collusion hoax, now dealing with the biggest economic crisis in generations and yet he remains competitive, if not still the electoral college favorite.

If Trump hasn’t been rocked down to 20% approval by now, then nothing will. He will win re-election similar to GWB.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

For an impeached president, who was hounded by an aggressive and open ended 3 year Russian collusion hoax, now dealing with the biggest economic crisis in generations and yet he remains competitive, if not still the electoral college favorite.

If Trump hasn’t been rocked down to 20% approval by now, then nothing will. He will win re-election similar to GWB.

Trump is gonna lose 279 to 259, Dems only have to flip WI/PA and MI. Bush Jr, had NV and CO in his pocket already and only needed OH. Trump needs WI and Va and he is losing both. Only a major gaffe in selecting Abrams or Val Demings as Veep would stop Biden. But, he is gonna select Liz Warren

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Incorrect, Trump wins ONE of PA, WI, or MI and he’ll win re-election. I think he has good odds of keeping one of those. That’s the election.

[Tekken_Guy]

Incorrect, Trump wins ONE of PA, WI, or MI and he’ll win re-election. I think he has good odds of keeping one of those. That’s the election.

He barely won the three states and there is little wiggle room for him. Even a tiny drop means he’s finished.

[GP270watch]

Incorrect, Trump wins ONE of PA, WI, or MI and he’ll win re-election. I think he has good odds of keeping one of those. That’s the election.

He barely won the three states and there is little wiggle room for him. Even a tiny drop means he’s finished.

 His polling in Florida and North Carolina is also going the wrong way.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Incorrect, Trump wins ONE of PA, WI, or MI and he’ll win re-election. I think he has good odds of keeping one of those. That’s the election.

He is losing WI 43 to 40 and losing PA and MI by 4 pts

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Incorrect, Trump wins ONE of PA, WI, or MI and he’ll win re-election. I think he has good odds of keeping one of those. That’s the election.

He is losing WI 43 to 40 and losing PA and MI by 4 pts

Polls are snap shots of the past. They aren’t predictive. Coronavirus is starting to recede, his numbers will swing the other way in the coming weeks.

[Tekken_Guy]

Incorrect, Trump wins ONE of PA, WI, or MI and he’ll win re-election. I think he has good odds of keeping one of those. That’s the election.

He is losing WI 43 to 40 and losing PA and MI by 4 pts

Polls are snap shots of the past. They aren’t predictive. Coronavirus is starting to recede, his numbers will swing the other way in the coming weeks.

The economic crisis won’t go away, and we’ll soon have fully switched from the mourning phase to the accountability phase.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Don't waste your time arguing with DTT.  Remember the old proverb about trying to teach a pig to sing: all it does is waste your time and annoy the pig.

[wbrocks67]

Don't waste your time arguing with DTT.  Remember the old proverb about trying to teach a pig to sing: all it does is waste your time and annoy the pig.

is he like a real person? he spouts off like a bot

[tagimaucia]

Incorrect, Trump wins ONE of PA, WI, or MI and he’ll win re-election. I think he has good odds of keeping one of those. That’s the election.

I don’t think Biden has trailed in a single Arizona poll in a long time, it will almost certainly be to the left of Wisconsin this year.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Betting Odds are firmly Trump.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Betting Odds are firmly Trump.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

Egh, betting odds aren't a great metric. 

And besides, Trump +6 is pretty poor for an incumbent during a time when the country should be uniting behind its leader. 

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Betting Odds are firmly Trump.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

Egh, betting odds aren't a great metric. 

And besides, Trump +6 is pretty poor for an incumbent during a time when the country should be uniting behind its leader. 

For an impeached Russian agent who is both dumb and a criminal genius, and is also simultaneously in dementia, I would say those are very good betting odds for all of that.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Betting Odds are firmly Trump.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

Egh, betting odds aren't a great metric.  

And besides, Trump +6 is pretty poor for an incumbent during a time when the country should be uniting behind its leader.  

For an impeached Russian agent who is both dumb and a criminal genius, and is also simultaneously in dementia, I would say those are very good betting odds for all of that.

Still, betting odds tell you what people think might happen, not necessarily the actual likelihood of an outcome.  There's an important separation (betting odds vs. voting intention polling)

For instance, I think Trump will win in November, but I won't be voting for him.  

[pbrower2a]

Incorrect, Trump wins ONE of PA, WI, or MI and he’ll win re-election. I think he has good odds of keeping one of those. That’s the election.

Wishful thinking. For him to win in 2020 after a bare win he must either (1) be gaining ground in states that he barely lost (which means that Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire would be still close and he might have a chance of winning one of those), (2) he must be solidifying states that he barely won -- which we don't see, or (3) he must have demographics supporting his re-election... his voters not dying off with younger voters hostile to his re-election or making gains among demographics (especially younger, well-educated voters and "model minorities") that disliked him the first time -- which is not happening.  

Dubya did both in 2004, making double-digit swings toward him in such states as Arkansas, Louisiana, Georgia, and Tennessee. Although he lost New Hampshire he more than made up for those four electoral votes with the electoral votes of Iowa and New Mexico. States that had been close such as Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin that he barely lost in 2000 remained close in 2004.

The hope for Trump isn't that he can keep Biden from running up the total vote in a few super-blue (Atlas dark red) states as California, Maryland, Massachusetts, and New York. Such, to the detriment of Democrats, has shown itself irrelevant (although if I did see Trump gaining in such states I would recognize alarm bells). His hope is that he can win much as he did in 2016 by winning the 'right' distribution of votes even without a plurality. The states elect the President; the People do not.

Trump won in 2016 by debasing the political discourse in what seemed a time in which things were comparatively safe and political affiliation was more cultural than economic. In a more dangerous time, such might not work. He has not become more conciliatory toward political opponents. He has not worked well across the aisle. He faces the worst plague in a century and seems to handle it badly, with state governors taking the lead and he being left in the dust. Unemployment is rising rapidly, and he addresses it inadequately.

As for the demographics of the vote related to age: Trump has done nothing to win over blacks, Hispanics, Asian-Americans, Arab-Americans, Jews, or LGBT people... and COVID-19 has been hitting elderly voters (who are slightly more R than D) hard. Younger, strongly-D-leaning voters as a group may more likely hold Trump culpable for the demise of their grandparents who seemed to have no pressing medical problems before 2020.  COVID-19 may not be as lethal as the Spanish influenza of a century ago, but the Presidential race of 1920 did not have that as a focus. This time it has COVID-19 as a focus.

Ordinarily about 1.5% of the electorate, almost entirely people over 55, quit voting because they die off. COVID-19 is killing off a bigger-than-average number of such older voters.  America has changed since 2016, and not to the benefit of the re-election of Donald Trump.        

 

[forgotten manatee]

Betting Odds are firmly Trump.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

Egh, betting odds aren't a great metric.  

And besides, Trump +6 is pretty poor for an incumbent during a time when the country should be uniting behind its leader.  

For an impeached Russian agent who is both dumb and a criminal genius, and is also simultaneously in dementia, I would say those are very good betting odds for all of that.

Still, betting odds tell you what people think might happen, not necessarily the actual likelihood of an outcome.  There's an important separation (betting odds vs. voting intention polling)

For instance, I think Trump will win in November, but I won't be voting for him.  

Even after all this? What do you think is his most likely path?

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Mexico: PPP, April 20-21, 1009 voters

Approve 40
Disapprove 56

For virus handling, it's 40/55.

Biden 52, Trump 40 (but it's probably worse for Trump than that, as among the undecideds only 5% approve of Trump)

[Person Man]

Betting Odds are firmly Trump.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

Egh, betting odds aren't a great metric.  

And besides, Trump +6 is pretty poor for an incumbent during a time when the country should be uniting behind its leader.  

For an impeached Russian agent who is both dumb and a criminal genius, and is also simultaneously in dementia, I would say those are very good betting odds for all of that.

Still, betting odds tell you what people think might happen, not necessarily the actual likelihood of an outcome.  There's an important separation (betting odds vs. voting intention polling)

For instance, I think Trump will win in November, but I won't be voting for him.  

Even after all this? What do you think is his most likely path?

People are still probably expecting him to win by inertia or at least that Biden will have the same "missing voter" problems that Hillary or Romney had or the problem that Kerry and Hillary had with undecideds.

[pbrower2a]

New Mexico: PPP, April 20-21, 1009 voters

Approve 40
Disapprove 56

For virus handling, it's 40/55.

Biden 52, Trump 40 (but it's probably worse for Trump than that, as among the undecideds only 5% approve of Trump)

Biden blow-out in New Mexico. We see few polls of New Mexico, but this one leaves no doubt. New Mexico was on the fringe of contention in 2016. This poll bodes ill for Trump in Arizona and Texas, two absolute-must wins for Trump.

COVID-19 overpowers all else in American political consciousness, and Trump approval overall seems to be close to the marks that he gets for handling the plague. This is before he suggested that people could drink or ingest disinfectants, the latter the sort of thing that one might do by mistake -- if one is an IV drug user.  

 

Trump - 49
Biden - 44

Highlights

• Biden is only leading 50-40 with Latinos. A worrying sign or an opportunity for further growth?
• Trump is winning the suburbs 49-46. That sounds like plenty for Fletcher and Allred to work with.

Trump's approval is 49-45, an improvement from last month's 45-48 split.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/04/25/trump-biden-texas-coronavirus-poll/

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

New Mexico: PPP, April 20-21, 1009 voters

Approve 40
Disapprove 56

For virus handling, it's 40/55.

Biden 52, Trump 40 (but it's probably worse for Trump than that, as among the undecideds only 5% approve of Trump)

Biden blow-out in New Mexico. We see few polls of New Mexico, but this one leaves no doubt. New Mexico was on the fringe of contention in 2016. This poll bodes ill for Trump in Arizona and Texas, two absolute-must wins for Trump.

COVID-19 overpowers all else in American political consciousness, and Trump approval overall seems to be close to the marks that he gets for handling the plague. This is before he suggested that people could drink or ingest disinfectants, the latter the sort of thing that one might do by mistake -- if one is an IV drug user.     

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

New Mexico is a blue state.

Also, Democrats won all 11 major election races in NM in 2018.