TX-UT Austin/Texas Tribune: Trump +5

[LimoLiberal]

Trump - 49
Biden - 44

Highlights

• Biden is only leading 50-40 with Latinos. A worrying sign or an opportunity for further growth?
• Trump is winning the suburbs 49-46. That sounds like plenty for Fletcher and Allred to work with.

Trump's approval is 49-45, an improvement from last month's 45-48 split.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/04/25/trump-biden-texas-coronavirus-poll/

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Texas is Lean R. Biden should focus more on GA.

[TML]

Biden's Latino vote share is a cause for concern, since it is lower than that of Clinton in 2016 (61-34), O'Rourke in 2018 (64-35), or even Valdez in 2018 (53-42).

On the other hand, Biden is doing better than the three aforementioned candidates in the suburbs (Clinton was 37-58, O'Rourke was 44-55, and Valdez was 38-59).

[Bidenworth2020]

Biden's Latino vote share is a cause for concern, since it is lower than that of Clinton in 2016 (61-34), O'Rourke in 2018 (64-35), or even Valdez in 2018 (53-42).

On the other hand, Biden is doing better than the three aforementioned candidates in the suburbs (Clinton was 37-58, O'Rourke was 44-55, and Valdez was 38-59).

I would say both of these crosstabs are very trashy, though the top line doesn't look all that far off.

[krb08]

Biden's Latino vote share is a cause for concern, since it is lower than that of Clinton in 2016 (61-34), O'Rourke in 2018 (64-35), or even Valdez in 2018 (53-42).

On the other hand, Biden is doing better than the three aforementioned candidates in the suburbs (Clinton was 37-58, O'Rourke was 44-55, and Valdez was 38-59).

I would say both of these crosstabs are very trashy, though the top line doesn't look all that far off.

I agree that the topline seems pretty accurate, but the crosstabs are definitely wacky. Trump is tied with women while Clinton won them by 2 and Beto by 8. I find it hard to believe Trump has improved with women in a state that is lurching toward Dems.

[ElectionsGuy]

Trump - 49
Biden - 44

Highlights

• Biden is only leading 50-40 with Latinos. A worrying sign or an opportunity for further growth?
• Trump is winning the suburbs 49-46. That sounds like plenty for Fletcher and Allred to work with.

1) Both, a worrying sign that 40% are already with Trump, but also could be junky crosstab with high moe, and he definitely has room for growth with this Sanders heavy demographic. Although should be noted Texas Latinos are usually around 5% more Republican than the country (so it would be the equivalent of 55-35 nationwide)
2) Considering TX-07 and TX-32 are inner suburbs, they'd definitely win, but again could be a junky crosstab that's too D friendly in this case. If not, they're definitely underestimating Democrats in urban areas.

[Reaganfan]

I'd caution. Polls showed Trump only three points ahead going into the last election week in 2016, and he won by 9 points. That means there trended 6-pt errors under-representing Trump in Texas last time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump will win TX, it's hard to imagine, Hegar pulling off the upset over Cornyn. Dems are gonna win FL

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I'd caution. Polls showed Trump only three points ahead going into the last election week in 2016, and he won by 9 points. That means there trended 6-pt errors under-representing Trump in Texas last time.

Are you just a moron or a troll? I’m beginning to think you’re just mental. Trump had a 11.7% polling lead in Texas in 2016 and won by only 9%.

PS—Trump isn’t winning Texas by 5% if he’s doing this bad nationally

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I'd caution. Polls showed Trump only three points ahead going into the last election week in 2016, and he won by 9 points. That means there trended 6-pt errors under-representing Trump in Texas last time.

Didn't RCP have Trump up by double-digits before Election Night? (Or am I mis-remembering my state?)

[Roblox]

I'd caution. Polls showed Trump only three points ahead going into the last election week in 2016, and he won by 9 points. That means there trended 6-pt errors under-representing Trump in Texas last time.

Didn't RCP have Trump up by double-digits before Epection Night? (Or am I mis-remembering my state?)

Yes, the final rcp average was Trump +11.7 in Texas.

[Tender Branson]

I'd caution. Polls showed Trump only three points ahead going into the last election week in 2016, and he won by 9 points. That means there trended 6-pt errors under-representing Trump in Texas last time.

2020 is not 2016 though.

[Reaganfan]

I'd caution. Polls showed Trump only three points ahead going into the last election week in 2016, and he won by 9 points. That means there trended 6-pt errors under-representing Trump in Texas last time.

2020 is not 2016 though.

Right, but it feels like you guys are getting that cocky smugness about polls that you had in 2016. Infact, the left seems overly obsessed with polls.

[Tender Branson]

I'd caution. Polls showed Trump only three points ahead going into the last election week in 2016, and he won by 9 points. That means there trended 6-pt errors under-representing Trump in Texas last time.

2020 is not 2016 though.

Right, but it feels like you guys are getting that cocky smugness about polls that you had in 2016. Infact, the left seems overly obsessed with polls.

I wasn’t cocky & smug in 2016, I was one of the most Hillary-critical at the time and thought Trump could win a year before the election ...

And polls are of course not perfect all the time, but it’s what we get and it’s good to follow them and their trends.

[Podgy the Bear]

I'd caution. Polls showed Trump only three points ahead going into the last election week in 2016, and he won by 9 points. That means there trended 6-pt errors under-representing Trump in Texas last time.

2020 is not 2016 though.

Right, but it feels like you guys are getting that cocky smugness about polls that you had in 2016. Infact, the left seems overly obsessed with polls.

Not cocky at all.  It's grim determination and focus.  If the polls indicate an opening, we will do everything we can to get this incompetent, morally repugnant scumbag and his minions out in November.

[SnowLabrador]

Sounds reasonable.

[Reaganfan]

I'd caution. Polls showed Trump only three points ahead going into the last election week in 2016, and he won by 9 points. That means there trended 6-pt errors under-representing Trump in Texas last time.

2020 is not 2016 though.

Right, but it feels like you guys are getting that cocky smugness about polls that you had in 2016. Infact, the left seems overly obsessed with polls.

Not cocky at all.  It's grim determination and focus.  If the polls indicate an opening, we will do everything we can to get this incompetent, morally repugnant scumbag and his minions out in November.

Watch using words like that. Moderators will jump on ya.

[Podgy the Bear]

I'd caution. Polls showed Trump only three points ahead going into the last election week in 2016, and he won by 9 points. That means there trended 6-pt errors under-representing Trump in Texas last time.

2020 is not 2016 though.

Right, but it feels like you guys are getting that cocky smugness about polls that you had in 2016. Infact, the left seems overly obsessed with polls.

Not cocky at all.  It's grim determination and focus.  If the polls indicate an opening, we will do everything we can to get this incompetent, morally repugnant scumbag and his minions out in November.

Watch using words like that. Moderators will jump on ya.

It's not directed at you.

[Reaganfan]

I'd caution. Polls showed Trump only three points ahead going into the last election week in 2016, and he won by 9 points. That means there trended 6-pt errors under-representing Trump in Texas last time.

2020 is not 2016 though.

Right, but it feels like you guys are getting that cocky smugness about polls that you had in 2016. Infact, the left seems overly obsessed with polls.

Not cocky at all.  It's grim determination and focus.  If the polls indicate an opening, we will do everything we can to get this incompetent, morally repugnant scumbag and his minions out in November.

Watch using words like that. Moderators will jump on ya.

It's not directed at you.

Right but it's still "hatefulness".

[Podgy the Bear]

I'd caution. Polls showed Trump only three points ahead going into the last election week in 2016, and he won by 9 points. That means there trended 6-pt errors under-representing Trump in Texas last time.

2020 is not 2016 though.

Right, but it feels like you guys are getting that cocky smugness about polls that you had in 2016. Infact, the left seems overly obsessed with polls.

Not cocky at all.  It's grim determination and focus.  If the polls indicate an opening, we will do everything we can to get this incompetent, morally repugnant scumbag and his minions out in November.

Watch using words like that. Moderators will jump on ya.

It's not directed at you.

Right but it's still "hatefulness".

He's incompetent and his lifestyle indicates moral repugnance.  So what's hateful about it?

[Frenchrepublican]

Trump winning by 5 in Texas ? Yeah, that's why I would expect if the election was held today.

The crosstabs are usually unreliable, even when the topline is accurate, because the margin of error for such subsamples is quite big, I wouldn't read too much in it

[Brittain33]

I'd caution. Polls showed Trump only three points ahead going into the last election week in 2016, and he won by 9 points. That means there trended 6-pt errors under-representing Trump in Texas last time.

2020 is not 2016 though.

Right, but it feels like you guys are getting that cocky smugness about polls that you had in 2016. Infact, the left seems overly obsessed with polls.

Not cocky at all.  It's grim determination and focus.  If the polls indicate an opening, we will do everything we can to get this incompetent, morally repugnant scumbag and his minions out in November.

Watch using words like that. Moderators will jump on ya.

It's not directed at you.

Right but it's still "hatefulness".

He's incompetent and his lifestyle indicates moral repugnance.  So what's hateful about it?

This poster gets periodically banned for anti-Semitism and racism, and he’s trying to make this thread about him. Let’s not get distracted.

[wbrocks67]

Crosstabs look junky - no way Biden is only winning by 10% among Latinos.

[MillennialModerate]

Texas is Lean R. Biden should focus more on GA.

No No No. Georgia is fools gold. I give Dems next to zero chance at winning GA in both Presidential and the Senate as well. Not happening - even if Biden has a great night

As for Texas: We always say “not this year but in 4 years” with Texas. Been saying it for a while now. I think 2028 is the year that it could actually flip. Maybe 2024, but definitely not 2020.

[Eraserhead]

Well, Biden did lose Texas hispanics pretty badly in the primary but it's hard to imagine many of them turning around and voting for Trump over him.