Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Trump approval at all time high, only 2.0 points behind disapproval.

Not really translating downballot

Approvals:
Fox News          Monmouth                       ABC/WaPo
48 (+1)             48 (+4)                            49 (+3)
51 (-1)              48 (-3)                              47 (-5)

H2H vs Biden
40 (-1)           45                                        47 (+2)
49 (nc)           48 (didn't poll before)            49 (-3)

[pbrower2a]

Why havent bprower responded in this thread with his maps?

Good question. Things are going wild. This virus is a confirmed killer. Assuming close splitting of the electorate, how this virus ravages the population will shape the election. If it should kill poor non-whites selectively then it could put such states as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin  back within the range of Trump victories. If it should selectively kill low-information white voters in rural areas then it favors Joe Biden. Unlike HIV/AIDS (the most infamous "new" lethal infectious disease of the last fifty years before this one that has killed tens of thousands of Americans)  it kills fast, so many people generally considered likely voters might not be voting. One has no ability to cast a ballot from six feet under.  Someone with HIV/AIDS could be voting for several years after diagnosis. Someone with COVID-19 could die in a week.

So far people most at risk are those who have done recent traveling, and that tends to skew toward well-heeled, well-educated, urban and suburban voters. But how do we know that it will not spread to rural areas with poor, ill-educated people with bad habits such as smoking, physical inactivity, and alcohol abuse -- maybe some oxy and meth on the side?

Assumptions about the 2020 electorate can be rendered completely absurd! If people in large numbers are undergoing medical treatment then they might not be reachable by pollsters at the time.

Add to this -- the securities markets are in chaos at or after the end of an extended bull market, and Americans are  being laid off in large numbers. To be sure most Americans own no stock even through a 401K plan, but any reduction in consumer demand will result in mass layoffs. If your retail choices get reduced to Dollar General, Family Dollar, Wal*Mart, Aldi, Kroger, Big Lots, Target, Walgreen's, CVS, Rite-Aid, Home Depot, gas station-convenience stores, auto parts stores, and maybe some regional box stores then you have lost much choice of what you can buy. As a group those are not high-end marketers, to put it lightly. So let us suppose that you are in the business of manufacturing high-end audio equipment. People just do not buy that sight-unseen...or sound unheard.

Maybe you buy books, audio recordings, or recorded video sight-unseen from the Big A, who should be doing well enough now. But such people know what they are looking for. (Closure of public libraries might be a boon for the Big A, but that is likely to be short-lived). Much marketing depends upon bored people going into a store and finding something to pique their interests. That is over for a while.  Need I go into a long discourse on how reduced sales lead to reduced production and that higher unemployment leads to a less sympathetic view of the leaders most influential at the time?

I may have expected the long bull market to come to an end, but I could not say when. COVID-19? Nobody predicted that until it happened, and nobody can predict how it will shape the electorate.

I have made assumptions on how approval and especially disapproval ratings either ensure re-election of an incumbent President (Obama 2012 is obvious), make it shaky (Dubya in 2004), or doom any re-election bid (Carter in 1980). COVID-19 is the wild card not supposed to be in the deck  that somehow found its way into the deck and is now in play.    

Contrary to what you may have learned in high-school civics in the 1990's or earlier, electoral politics is not so much about politicians convincing people to vote for them, but instead (in most states) the ratification of the demographics of the time. Thus states similar in economics but not ethnic mix (let us say Arkansas and New Mexico) can vote very differently. COVID-19 can change the demographic mix depending on who it kills. Not since 2001 have so many Americans died of the same cause in one day, and I do not see that ending soon. One month of such deaths can give a death toll higher in one month alone as the total number of combat deaths in the wars in Korea or Vietnam in a much shorter time.

COVID-19 has shattered some of my core assumptions about this Presidential election.  I might hold off on new maps unless some poll is 'juicy'.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Also, Biden got bumps from his primary victories in states like TX, OH and NC, which arent tipping point states, they are purple states and only will vote for a Dem in a landslide.  Once Biden's primary bump was over, Trump reclaimed leads in those states. Also, Trump is doing a good job dealing with this coronavirus, Biden is having the same problem as Bernie did, since corruption isnt a focus point and impeachment,  like it did before the coronavirus,  Trump is getting high Mark's now. Trump probably gets reelected

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Also, the infatuation of impeachment of Trump was a Chris Matthew's infatuation, whom got banned from moderating debates, Guliani said this and that's why he is no longer getting paid for his pro Biden biased opinion on impeachment, that's why Trump was acquitted

[pbrower2a]

[Brittain33]

Also, the infatuation of impeachment of Trump was a Chris Matthew's infatuation, whom got banned from moderating debates, Guliani said this and that's why he is no longer getting paid for his pro Biden biased opinion on impeachment, that's why Trump was acquitted

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1244293120231079936

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1244292340774248450

[pbrower2a]

Also, the infatuation of impeachment of Trump was a Chris Matthew's infatuation, whom got banned from moderating debates, Guliani said this and that's why he is no longer getting paid for his pro Biden biased opinion on impeachment, that's why Trump was acquitted

Democrats had no viable option other than impeachment of the President after the attempt to blackmail the President of Ukraine. Republicans have typically accused Democrats of being soft on national security, and Trump put it at risk for a hare-brained effort to get a partisan advantage. There are legitimate means  of seeking political gain -- but never at the expense of an ally.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was talking about the nonpartiality, he showed no interest in other candidates winning the primary against Biden due to fact he protected Biden

Chuck Todd is allowed to moderate but Dems and Rs alike banned Matthew's for being Biden biased, in moderating debates

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1244343905895829504

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1244344794744336384

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1244344904207273984

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

The inevitable Phase 4 with an additional direct deposit check will surely keep his approvals strong. Trickle down corruption.

[wbrocks67]

It's very funny, and not surprising, that the ABC poll is getting way more oxygen than the Fox poll. Narratives...

[Podgy the Bear]

The inevitable Phase 4 with an additional direct deposit check will surely keep his approvals strong. Trickle down corruption.

The way he's moving to get reelected, he will out-Bernie Bernie.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only thing about 2008, was that the Great Recession happened at the end of the campaign not March of 2008, had the Recession started earlier, McCain would have had time to recover. Trump has 6 mnths to recover not 2

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The only thing about 2008, was that the Great Recession happened at the end of the campaign not March of 2008, had the Recession started earlier, McCain would have had time to recover. Trump has 6 mnths to recover not 2

The data suggests that Q2 of the election year is actually the one that matters most in terms of economic numbers.  So based on past results at least, this crisis is happening at the absolutely worst time for Trump.

[pbrower2a]

The only thing about 2008, was that the Great Recession happened at the end of the campaign not March of 2008, had the Recession started earlier, McCain would have had time to recover. Trump has 6 mnths to recover not 2

John McCain did not lose for a lack of integrity. He went fro standing with the economic policies that led to the 2008 crash to having to renounce them. He did the latter awkwardly. McCain then got the rap for flip-flopping. But the economic meltdown of 2008 was not a consequence of McCain policies; those were the result of several years of the policies of a troubled Presidency.

To be sure, Barack Obama showed himself as one of the most adept politicians in American history, which did not help McCain. Trump has done everything possible to shove Obama to the sideline, but we can all expect Obama back on the scene. Obama is going to be the best campaign asset that the Democrats have in 2020. He can fire people up without being an embarrassment. He is no demagogue, so he will not be a loose cannon as was Sarah Palin.

Every incumbent either runs on his record as the only chance of winning re-election or awkwardly runs from his record. If he repudiates too much he gives his opponents unwitting aid in their campaign. Trump will run from the consequences, which will include the consequences of an economic meltdown, a diplomatic mess, and mostly-unforeseen consequences of his botched handling (admit it -- it is botched) of COVID-19.

Trump eminently deserves to lose the 2020 election, and those politicians who enabled him also deserve to go into the political quicksand with him. That is not to say definitively that such will happen. The death toll of COVID-19 is already high -- and it offers us an ominous interpretation of the phrase "You ain't seen nuthin' yet!"      

[emailking]

McCain lost because of Bush. The economic crisis is what made it a rout.

[pbrower2a]

McCain lost because of Bush. The economic crisis is what made it a rout.

To the extent that one can blame the lame-duck President, yes. John McCain was essentially a promise of the status quo, which works when things go well (think of the elder Bush in 1992). Still, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq had become quagmires, and the mess in real-estate financing was tearing everything else apart.

It is far easier to change Parties of the President after two terms than after one; even the 1940 Presidential election was decidedly closer than that of the 1936 blow-out. So it is with the difference  between open-seat elections and those involving an incumbent. To be sure we have not seen an incumbent President lose a re-election bid since Bill Clinton defeated the elder Bush in 1992 -- twenty-eight years ago. That does not say that Trump has no advantage in incumbency. He had one and he lost much of it. The elder Bush lost more because people got tired of his agenda (a stale iteration of Ronald Reagan) than out of some glaring faults of him as President.

Trump does not have the disadvantage of staleness for his agenda, so he is not in the situation in which the elder Bush was in 1992.  Trump's ideological stance is still new, and I can easily imagine it being a success had it not been for scandals and an erratic foreign policy -- and Trump's singular vileness as a person that has become increasingly evident. He could have succeeded with tax reforms that practically exempt the rich from income taxes while imposing heavy federal sales taxes on consumer goods, eviscerating unions, gutting all environmental protections, and privatizing the Interstate Highway System to monopolistic profiteers. Such would lead to the funneling of huge amounts of money into a re-election campaign that would utterly dominate the media. America would then be about as plutocratic as Saudi Arabia, and the common man could do nothing about it.

Trump threw away his opportunity, perhaps the last, to establish a pure plutocracy with a veneer of Christian piety as the sole reward to the common man (pie-in-the-sky-when-you-die-if-you-suffer-adequately-for-your-exploiter), a Christian-fascist version of a new and permanent Gilded Age.  Instead he is fighting for his political life, and he may be reducing the Republican Party to a regional party whose support comes largely from the most backward parts of America.       

[wbrocks67]

NEW YORK
Trump favorability: 35/59 (-24)
Trump job approval: 33% excellent/good, 65% fair/poor
Trump corona approval: 41/56 (-15)

https://www.scribd.com/document/453917717/SNY0320-Crosstabs#from_embed

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Biden has his Veep, its Klobuchar, Harris said she is staying in the Senate

[wbrocks67]

I think Biden has his Veep, its Klobuchar, Harris said she is staying in the Senate

Where did she say that? If she did, of course they're going to say that right now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Conservatives are making the same mistake again, that just because Trump fixes the economy, all is well and he is automatically gonna get reelected.  Not so fast, Trump still is corrupted and still has not fixed the income inequality and refuses to lift the minimum wage.  Trump will lose regardless if the coronavirus is fixed or not

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1244663770892378112

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1244663154833047552

Looks like this are reverting to the mean (or worse re: Rasmussen)

Also this:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1244665559423254529

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

See what I tell you Badger came in this forum and said that Dems are gonna lose, no we arent Badger. I dont hear from Badger now😎😎😎

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1242660315990495232

OMG. The CNN so-called analysts actually are postulating trumps relocating His official residence to Florida was for electoral reasons rather than taxes, and more importantly that it actually might make some impact on the race. As if more than one undecided voter in a million down there is going to care that his official home is now Mar-A-Lago instead of Trump Tower. What complete and utter maroons.

This is the badger thread that due to Coronavirus,  Trump is inevitable, no he isnt