Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Now that Ukraine is actually on the brink of winning the war,

This is a very dangerous assumption to make. If you take Ukraine's war aims as the complete liberation of national territory, that's unfortunately still very far off, even with this new round of aid. Of course, the hope is that Russia folds before we get to that point, but given past behavior I'm not comfortable betting on it.

The sad truth is that we're probably looking for at least another year of mostly-attritional warfare, albeit one marked by occasional Ukrainian gains like those we've seen around Kharkiv and in Kherson. The goal remains holding on, and being in this for the long haul will make the difference.

Not if we give Ukraine the weapons with which to overcome that Western Front-style stalemate, which we are beginning to do.  We can end this war this year militarily if we really want to.   

From my (admittedly limited) understanding, these are still a long ways away from the kind of aid that could achieve a front-wide breakthrough. Hell, in most respect we're still just helping Ukraine reach parity with Russia in terms of equipment.

I agree the US could single-handedly win this war for Ukraine in a matter of months if it really wanted to, but that would require a level of support that's probably at least one order of magnitude larger than the funds appropriated so far. And of course with the Putin stooges now running the asylum in the House, it's unclear if we'll get any more money for that. Frankly Biden could and should have done a lot more back when he had a friendly Congress, but at this point even that's beyond us. Either way, it's important to be realistic about what we're in for. I believe Ukraine can and must win, but it will not be quick or easy.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Now that Ukraine is actually on the brink of winning the war,

This is a very dangerous assumption to make. If you take Ukraine's war aims as the complete liberation of national territory, that's unfortunately still very far off, even with this new round of aid. Of course, the hope is that Russia folds before we get to that point, but given past behavior I'm not comfortable betting on it.

The sad truth is that we're probably looking for at least another year of mostly-attritional warfare, albeit one marked by occasional Ukrainian gains like those we've seen around Kharkiv and in Kherson. The goal remains holding on, and being in this for the long haul will make the difference.

Not if we give Ukraine the weapons with which to overcome that Western Front-style stalemate, which we are beginning to do.  We can end this war this year militarily if we really want to.   

From my (admittedly limited) understanding, these are still a long ways away from the kind of aid that could achieve a front-wide breakthrough. Hell, in most respect we're still just helping Ukraine reach parity with Russia in terms of equipment.

I agree the US could single-handedly win this war for Ukraine in a matter of months if it really wanted to, but that would require a level of support that's probably at least one order of magnitude larger than the funds appropriated so far. And of course with the Putin stooges now running the asylum in the House, it's unclear if we'll get any more money for that. Frankly Biden could and should have done a lot more back when he had a friendly Congress, but at this point even that's beyond us. Either way, it's important to be realistic about what we're in for. I believe Ukraine can and must win, but it will not be quick or easy.

The Discharge Petition exists for a reason

[Skill and Chance]

Now that Ukraine is actually on the brink of winning the war,

This is a very dangerous assumption to make. If you take Ukraine's war aims as the complete liberation of national territory, that's unfortunately still very far off, even with this new round of aid. Of course, the hope is that Russia folds before we get to that point, but given past behavior I'm not comfortable betting on it.

The sad truth is that we're probably looking for at least another year of mostly-attritional warfare, albeit one marked by occasional Ukrainian gains like those we've seen around Kharkiv and in Kherson. The goal remains holding on, and being in this for the long haul will make the difference.

Not if we give Ukraine the weapons with which to overcome that Western Front-style stalemate, which we are beginning to do.  We can end this war this year militarily if we really want to.   

From my (admittedly limited) understanding, these are still a long ways away from the kind of aid that could achieve a front-wide breakthrough. Hell, in most respect we're still just helping Ukraine reach parity with Russia in terms of equipment.

I agree the US could single-handedly win this war for Ukraine in a matter of months if it really wanted to, but that would require a level of support that's probably at least one order of magnitude larger than the funds appropriated so far. And of course with the Putin stooges now running the asylum in the House, it's unclear if we'll get any more money for that. Frankly Biden could and should have done a lot more back when he had a friendly Congress, but at this point even that's beyond us. Either way, it's important to be realistic about what we're in for. I believe Ukraine can and must win, but it will not be quick or easy.

Given military history, if this drags on for years and years and both sides are 100% committed, Russia would presumably win due to having 3X the population unless the advantage of the NATO weapons is truly the equivalent of guns vs. swords in earlier eras.  Thankfully, I don't think Russia is 100% committed to this while Ukraine probably is.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Discharge Petition exists for a reason

And when's the last time it's been used for a significant policy item under a Republican Congress?

Given military history, if this drags on for years and years and both sides are 100% committed, Russia would presumably win due to having 3X the population unless the advantage of the NATO weapons is truly the equivalent of guns vs. swords in earlier eras.  Thankfully, I don't think Russia is 100% committed to this while Ukraine probably is.

As far as I can see it, combat power in the long-term is basically a function of population*will to fight*resources. Obviously Russia has the higher population, but nowhere close to Ukraine in terms of that population's will to take part in the war effort. How the resources balance stacks up is entirely in the hands of NATO allies, and will probably be the decisive factor.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The Discharge Petition exists for a reason

And when's the last time it's been used for a significant policy item under a Republican Congress?

Given military history, if this drags on for years and years and both sides are 100% committed, Russia would presumably win due to having 3X the population unless the advantage of the NATO weapons is truly the equivalent of guns vs. swords in earlier eras.  Thankfully, I don't think Russia is 100% committed to this while Ukraine probably is.

As far as I can see it, combat power in the long-term is basically a function of population*will to fight*resources. Obviously Russia has the higher population, but nowhere close to Ukraine in terms of that population's will to take part in the war effort. How the resources balance stacks up is entirely in the hands of NATO allies, and will probably be the decisive factor.

I mean past Republican Congresses were very pro interventionist when it comes to Foreign Policy so such an item would not have to be used to begin with. Also the discharge petition allows the GOP to run an end around the freedom caucus without risking another speakership election .

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Discharge Petition exists for a reason

And when's the last time it's been used for a significant policy item under a Republican Congress?

Given military history, if this drags on for years and years and both sides are 100% committed, Russia would presumably win due to having 3X the population unless the advantage of the NATO weapons is truly the equivalent of guns vs. swords in earlier eras.  Thankfully, I don't think Russia is 100% committed to this while Ukraine probably is.

As far as I can see it, combat power in the long-term is basically a function of population*will to fight*resources. Obviously Russia has the higher population, but nowhere close to Ukraine in terms of that population's will to take part in the war effort. How the resources balance stacks up is entirely in the hands of NATO allies, and will probably be the decisive factor.

I mean past Republican Congresses were very pro interventionist when it comes to Foreign Policy so such an item would not have to be used to begin with. Also the discharge petition allows the GOP to run an end around the freedom caucus without risking another speakership election .

Well, I hope you're right but that sure sounds like wishful thinking to me. The Republican establishment is cucked to the crazies, it has been for decades.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The Discharge Petition exists for a reason

And when's the last time it's been used for a significant policy item under a Republican Congress?

Given military history, if this drags on for years and years and both sides are 100% committed, Russia would presumably win due to having 3X the population unless the advantage of the NATO weapons is truly the equivalent of guns vs. swords in earlier eras.  Thankfully, I don't think Russia is 100% committed to this while Ukraine probably is.

As far as I can see it, combat power in the long-term is basically a function of population*will to fight*resources. Obviously Russia has the higher population, but nowhere close to Ukraine in terms of that population's will to take part in the war effort. How the resources balance stacks up is entirely in the hands of NATO allies, and will probably be the decisive factor.

I mean past Republican Congresses were very pro interventionist when it comes to Foreign Policy so such an item would not have to be used to begin with. Also the discharge petition allows the GOP to run an end around the freedom caucus without risking another speakership election .

Well, I hope you're right but that sure sounds like wishful thinking to me. The Republican establishment is cucked to the crazies, it has been for decades.

This is wrong on two fronts. One the 1994-2006 GOP house(especially 2000-2005)  was not cucked to Crazies at all lol, as it was completely run top-down with members rarely stepping out of line with what the party leadership wanted and party discipline was enforced through an iron fist by party leadership. It's why those Republican Congresses were extremely successful in passing an ambitious agenda unlike the GOP congresses since 2010.

Second even the 2010-2018 GOP house defied the tea party multiple times. Those times all had to do with where not taking action would have hurt the establishment's interests or something the establishment deeply cared about. See the 2011 and 2013 debt ceiling battles for example.


The foreign policy establishment deeply cares about this issue and also its in their interests that Ukraine wins so the GOP establishment will do a go around and Ukraine Funding will happen .

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I have to agree with Nupes Enjoyer that the tone here is generally too triumphalist. We don't need to overcorrect for Woodbury or SnowLabrador when they post in elections threads, so I don't see why we need to do so here.

Pretty clear that regardless of whatever Russian Propaganda floating around on Social Media, that the "Russian Mobilization" does little more than create not only significantly higher Russian Military casualties, increase domestic opposition against the War within the "Motherland", and continue to accelerate what is in reality a dramatic decrease within the Russian population when it comes to key economic aspects such as output of basic manufactured goods, cost of living increases, loss of workers in key MFG sectors who are busy fighting for "Putin's" attempted annexation of Ukraine, etc..

Meanwhile internal Russian sabotage operations are increasing against the War, especially involving sabotage operations against Russian railroad tracks transporting troops closer to the frontlines...

People can hit the Russian "crackpipe" all they want, buy yeah... Russia can completely empty all of their prisons and send them to front lines in Ukraine to get slaughtered like sheep WW I style.

Russia can do forced mobilization of all Males from 18-35 to fight in Ukraine... still who is gonna work at the Defense plants and the factories and Mines of the Energy sector?

Concept of another 500k Russian "Mobiks" happily volunteering to go the frontlines of Ukraine, is pretty much a "bunk acid" trip from back in the '80s.

How many more Russian military recruitment offices will get firebombed and burned to the ground?

How many more Russian officers will get shot dead or "fragged" at the front lines?

Really--- this all sounds delusional to me, unless Putin is really jonesing for the first real Russian Revolution since 1917...

Put this in your pipe and smoke it...

I don't believe the million man army hype either, but the mobilisation (along with the Kherson retreat) seems to have stabilised the front lines for Russia and eroded Ukraine's manpower advantage (one of its greatest assets in the war).

In the latest War on the Rocks podcast, Kofman assessed that Russia - not Wagner, but the military as a whole - had started a winter offensive, rather than the spring offensive he'd predicted. It's possible they will repeat what they did in the original Donbas offensive - suffer attrition to the point where Ukraine can launch a bigger counteroffensive, but this isn't certain. He believes both sides are overcommitting to the battles around Bakhmut due to the sunk cost fallacy.

It seems to me they have regained (some of) the initiative they lost after the Kharkiv counteroffensive. They're not using it very well at all, but they might be using it well enough (relative to Ukraine).

[CumbrianLefty]

The foreign policy establishment deeply cares about this issue and also its in their interests that Ukraine wins so the GOP establishment will do a go around and Ukraine Funding will happen .

And at the end of the day, pro-Putin crazies are a small minority of the GOP in Congress even now.

Add this to Democrats being almost 100% pro-Ukraine, and I don't see that much change.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The next regular meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (also called "Ramstein format", after its meeting place) on January 20 is seen as the next pivotal moment where the Leopard shipments could be given a go. Considering the Scholz doctrine that rules out any unilateral or isolated arms deliveries to Ukraine it would require other countries like the US, the UK or France also following suit in sending main battle tanks.

[Storr]

Someone is lying, my guess is Prigozhyn:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1612923040756539394?s=20&t=jdpYI3QP...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1612916221980057601?s=20&t=jdpYI3QP...

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1612868609990135813?cxt=HHwWisC4_ZLdh-IsAAA...
https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1612908116357648385?cxt=HHwWgsC8rdzYmeIsAAA...

[Storr]

The next regular meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (also called "Ramstein format", after its meeting place) on January 20 is seen as the next pivotal moment where the Leopard shipments could be given a go. Considering the Scholz doctrine that rules out any unilateral or isolated arms deliveries to Ukraine it would require other countries like the US, the UK or France also following suit in sending main battle tanks.

Hmmm...

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1612909092166565888?s=20&t=jdpYI3...

[Middle-aged Europe]

The next regular meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (also called "Ramstein format", after its meeting place) on January 20 is seen as the next pivotal moment where the Leopard shipments could be given a go. Considering the Scholz doctrine that rules out any unilateral or isolated arms deliveries to Ukraine it would require other countries like the US, the UK or France also following suit in sending main battle tanks.

Hmmm...

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1612909092166565888?s=20&t=jdpYI3...

Following her visit, Baerbock gave an interview to German television where she basically said that Ukraine "needs more tanks", but that they can only be supplied to the country "in accordance with our allies".

[Woody]

They fought bravely.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1612932967109890048?cxt=HHwWgMDQ8Zz_pOIsA...

[jaichind]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/10/head-of-wagner-group-says-his-troops-have-taken-control-of-soledar

"Head of Russia’s Wagner group says his troops have taken control of Soledar"

[Omega21]

I also just saw a UA-posted video of them loading dozens of bodies into trucks in Bakhmut & Soledar, so this doesn't surprise me.

But what I don't get is...

How did Prigozhin, with a ragtag group of cons, manage to do this to a group of well-trained, motivated & NATO-equipped professional soldiers?

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1612951186981650434

[Middle-aged Europe]

But what I don't get is...

How did Prigozhin, with a ragtag group of cons, manage to do this to a group of well-trained, motivated & NATO-equipped professional soldiers?

That can happen in a war. A nominally inferior force can win through a lucky combination of favorable factors. Probably not very often, but once in a while. As for the specific factors in this insistance... I doubt that we'll ever get the full picture here.

[Virginiá]

Don't know all the specific actions and circumstances of this attack, as there is still a fair amount of fog of war right now, but it seems possible Russia/Wagner caught the Ukrainians off-guard there and managed to break through. Ukraine has had quite a few successes like that themselves, although on a much grander scale the past 4 months.

Re: Tanks, whatever their decision is, I hope for Ukraine's sake that they settle on a tank that there are large numbers able to be donated (either through one country or a large coalition each donating what they can). Ukraine really doesn't need a situation where they get 10 Challengers, 12 Leclercs, 50 Leo 2s, a handful of Italian Arietes, some Abrams... The concerns about tank sustainment and maintenance aren't unfounded, and it would be a lot easier if everyone settled on a tank that could be given in large numbers and supplied with spare parts and logistical assistance more easily. Maybe a country could give more Leos than they are comfortable with, and France or the UK can backfill those tanks with their own MBTs. Less logistical headaches for Ukraine, and donor countries can deal with the others.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1612852512838807557?s=20&t=jdpYI3QPMJV1V9...

[Logical]

I also just saw a UA-posted video of them loading dozens of bodies into trucks in Bakhmut & Soledar, so this doesn't surprise me.

But what I don't get is...

How did Prigozhin, with a ragtag group of cons, manage to do this to a group of well-trained, motivated & NATO-equipped professional soldiers?

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1612951186981650434

I think this picture offers a hint as to why. Wagner are known to be masters of deception and tricks.
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1612862290788847618

I do believe that Ukraine has made the mistake of overcommiting their forces in Bakhmut. The Svatove offensive has stalled as a result despite being more strategically significant than Bakhmut.

[pppolitics]

I also just saw a UA-posted video of them loading dozens of bodies into trucks in Bakhmut & Soledar, so this doesn't surprise me.

But what I don't get is...

How did Prigozhin, with a ragtag group of cons, manage to do this to a group of well-trained, motivated & NATO-equipped professional soldiers?

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1612951186981650434

Throw a lot of meat at it.

Eventually, even the best meat grinder gets jammed.

[CumbrianLefty]

But what I don't get is...

How did Prigozhin, with a ragtag group of cons, manage to do this to a group of well-trained, motivated & NATO-equipped professional soldiers?

Very few wars are totally one sided, as you know perfectly well.

(plus what others have already posted)

[Virginiá]

I read this as more of a preemptive decision on how many tanks to send if a coalition of donors can be formed, of which the primary holdup is likely Germany approving the transfer

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1613177466339659777

[Torie]

Why is this battle so particularly sanguinary? Near continuous Massive blanket artillery barrages at close rage, that destroy everything located in vast swaths of real estate, or something more surgical.