Election models megathread

[Lief 🗽]

Also, why the hell does the RCP model have the GOP winning Wisconsin and Pennsylvania when their polling averages have Fetterman and Barnes ~5 points up in each?

Because RCP is not a neutral site. It had an R-bias for quite some time, especially with the duration of including certain pollsters in polling averages.

In 2000, RCP had California as only Lean Gore before election day.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also, why the hell does the RCP model have the GOP winning Wisconsin and Pennsylvania when their polling averages have Fetterman and Barnes ~5 points up in each?

Because RCP is not a neutral site. It had an R-bias for quite some time, especially with the duration of including certain pollsters in polling averages.

In 2000, RCP had California as only Lean Gore before election day.

They had much bigger problems than that. They were projecting like a 400EV Bush win though tbf that was 20 years ago

Also in 2000 Cali was only like a D+10 state or so

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Also, why the hell does the RCP model have the GOP winning Wisconsin and Pennsylvania when their polling averages have Fetterman and Barnes ~5 points up in each?

Because RCP is not a neutral site. It had an R-bias for quite some time, especially with the duration of including certain pollsters in polling averages.

In 2000, RCP had California as only Lean Gore before election day.

They had much bigger problems than that. They were projecting like a 400EV Bush win though tbf that was 20 years ago

Also in 2000 Cali was only like a D+10 state or so

The Rs have problems in all their states except Reynolds, Sununu and Scott why because they believe in Trickle down economics, tax cuts for the wealthy will trickle down to the working class models may not believe that Rs can lose TX and FL but it's called Blk and Brown support that they are margin of difference in TX, FL, OH, NC OH, and the reason they have PA and W,I red not blue they are going by Approval ratings just like your R nut map but Trump have the same negative Approvals in Swing states as Biden that's why Ds are outpolls Biden low Approvals , and GCB has D's ,50/48 not 45/53 like Biden Approvals, they are trying to project an R sweep that's not gonna happen, if Rs win both Houses they will lose it because they are gonna cut so many programs, just like now we have no stimulus checks because Rs cut out the Federal stimulus but states continue to give  tax rebates for Property taxes and homeowners

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/ronbrownstein/status/1570178082052657152?s=46&t=SzRO0yVO...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't believe this we are winning in OH, OK and Beasley and Demings are 2 pts back Blk and brown is 5/6% we are the balance of power we can get a Filibuster proof Trifecta

If we weren't leading red states then that's fine but really OK and OH are competetive


If it's a 303 map and we win only WI and PA and net only 52/48 Senate I believe it's a tie but females and Blk and Latino voters are angry at income inequality look at the monarchy all that wealth they can get rid of homeless population in Cali


Act blue we believe in blue waves the last time we failed at a blue wave was Hillary and  2016, we had one in 2018/20

Rs are for trickling down economics, that's playing itself out in OH and OK


Biden ran with Obama in 2008/12 and won red states  Obama didn't win red states by himself

[Cyrusman]

Why do we  keep getting registered voter polls? When will all the LV polls roll in?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The MQK poll already went from RV to LV and so did Suffolk that's why Barnes went from 7 ahead to 1 behind and Ryan was leading by 9 and now he is leading by one but those are preelection polls not exit polls

We will win once we start voting

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/ronbrownstein/status/1570178082052657152?s=46&t=SzRO0yVO...

Ferguson needs to believe in blue waves not just Election models we over polled in AK and NY 19


Trends are made to be broken Trump net gained seats at 43/54 Approvals

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Also, why the hell does the RCP model have the GOP winning Wisconsin and Pennsylvania when their polling averages have Fetterman and Barnes ~5 points up in each?

Because RCP is not a neutral site. It had an R-bias for quite some time, especially with the duration of including certain pollsters in polling averages.

In 2000, RCP had California as only Lean Gore before election day.

They had much bigger problems than that. They were projecting like a 400EV Bush win though tbf that was 20 years ago

Also in 2000 Cali was only like a D+10 state or so

The 2000 election really did shift substantially toward Gore in the last weekend.  This was correctly picked up by several polls right before the election, but like two weeks before election day, the solid consensus was that GWB would win by ~5 points.

[President Johnson]

FiveThirtyEight has now both parties at a 71% chance for keeping the senate and taking the House (in the the deluxe models).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All these swing state races are within 5/6 pts and Early voting is begining soon it's too early to Declare Rs the winner of EDay just like we thought or some thought when Biden was at 33/61, D's were Done but all the races have been consistently 5/6 pts the entire Midterm

Even VA, AK and NY 19 we're all with MOE

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Dem chance of holding the Senate (72-28) now higher than the GOP chance of taking the House (71-29) in Deluxe.

In Classic the Dems are at 80-20 in the Senate and the same 71-29 in the House.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Current comparison of the online models I know of; if you know of any others, please post a link. 

Senate D chances (most to least):

538 Lite 82%
538 Classic 79%
Economist 78%
538 Deluxe 70%
JHK 61.7%
DDHQ 58.8%

House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 82.8%
JHK 77.8%
Economist, 538 Classic, 538 Deluxe 74%
538 Lite 61%

Update:

Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 82 (+4)
538 Lite 81 (-1)
538 Classic 79 (nc)
538 Deluxe 71 (+1)
JHK 64.1 (+2.4)
DDHQ 63.3 (+4.5)



House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 80 (-2.
JHK 75.9 (-1.9)
538 Classic 71 (-3)
538 Deluxe 71 (-3)
Economist 68 (-6)
538 Lite 59 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is an interesting looking modeling and analysis site that I stumbled across this morning: https://split-ticket.org/.  They currently have:

House: 217 R, 200 D, 18 tossup.

Senate: 49 D, 48 R, 3 tossup (GA, NV, WI).

Governor: 25 D, 21 R, 4 tossup (AZ, KS, NV, WI).

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Has anyone else noticed that the 538 model seems totally broken with respect to the Georgia run-off.  Look at the predicted distribution of vote shares:



It's not unusual for their to be outliers where one candidate wins by like 20% in a couple simulations of a race predicted to be close; there's always the slight possibility of some huge scandal coming up, etc.  
But in the vast majority of those cases, the race shouldn't go to a run-off.  The distribution of vote share in races that go to a run-off should certainly be narrower than races that don't go to a run-off.  And yet the 538 model seems to show the opposite.  

It also shows a suspiciously small number of simulations where the race actually -is- very close.  Unlike every other close race where the results are approximately normally distribute with a mean close to 0, here the distribution appears bimodal with a local minimum around 0.  

Finally, the estimate for the Libertarian vote share varies from almost 5% all the way down to 0.2%.  Should the estimate be substantially more confident than that?

[Sir Mohamed]

According to 538' deluxe model, GOP chances to take to House dropped to 70 in 100. Lowest recorded so far. Same in the classic model. Lite is even just 57 in 100.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1572607679910260740

[2016]

Morris is an absolute <slur deleted by moderator>.
This by Wasserman seems a lot more realistic and it's what I have been saying all along that Democrats would need close to 80 % of the Toss Up Seats and Wasserman explains it:
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1572573036771147777

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't care about the H those Sen races in OH, WI, FL and NC are gonna be close after we won AZ, GA, NV, NH and PA

It's over if we win those races the Rs know it too even if we don't win the H in 22 D's will have 53 + votes to secure the S for 24 and pass DC Statehood in 24 and win the H back.in 24 that's why Rs keep saying OH, WI, NC and FL are Lean R

[Brittain33]

Dem House chances now 1 point ahead of Republican Senate chances on 538 default

[Sir Mohamed]

Dem House chances now 1 point ahead of Republican Senate chances on 538 default

That was also briefly the case yesterday, before GOP chance in the House jumped back to 72 in 100. Now 70 in 100 again, via deluxe model.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Dem House chances now 1 point ahead of Republican Senate chances on 538 default

That was also briefly the case yesterday, before GOP chance in the House jumped back to 72 in 100. Now 70 in 100 again, via deluxe model.

Minor fluctuation from one model run to another is quite normal.  Don't read too much into those little blips in either direction.

[President Johnson]

Ladies and Gentlemen, FiveThirtyEight's Deluxe model has Republican chances for the House at 69% now. Lowest on record this cycle.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Ladies and Gentlemen, FiveThirtyEight's Deluxe model has Republican chances for the House at 69% now. Lowest on record this cycle.

nice

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ladies and Gentlemen, FiveThirtyEight's Deluxe model has Republican chances for the House at 69% now. Lowest on record this cycle.

It dropped after they added the D+12 GCB poll from Premise, which (let's be honest) is clearly ridiculous. (I'm not saying don't include it in the average; that's what averages are for.  But don't be surprised when it's enough to move averages and models.)