Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/1504578657687375872

[WMS]

What I *suspect* is going on here ties into the "1,000 Russian Mercs" story which I reported earlier today after hearing a mention of it on CNN on the TV background.

This also jives with multiple other reports, which we have seen over the past week about the poor military performance of Russian conscripts, most of whom had no idea they were going to Ukraine until after they crossed the border.

We also know about the critical role that Russian mercenaries have played in Libya & Syria (Among other recent actions), with a major oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevgeny_Prigozhin

who runs "The Wagner Group".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group

Here is a bit of context:

https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/the-fallen-mercenaries-in-russias-dark-army/

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/wagner-group-what-russian-mercenearies-ukraine-president-zelensky-putin-1489364

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/06/what-is-wagner-group-russia-mercenaries-military-contractor/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/10/marat-gabidullin-russian-mercenary-wagner

Gee, it would be a shame if they “happened” to run into Western ex-military “volunteers” in Ukraine who just happened to be comprised of people on the same level of expertise as the ones who flatlined the ers in Syria a few years back.

And on a greater scale, please read the following:
https://twitter.com/mollymckew/status/1500620397644898306?s=21
Edit:

Here comes the barrel bombs...

https://mobile.twitter.com/PalmerReport/status/1500621931011321860

Assad can’t send his good troops because Turkey and its Syrian allies will pounce if they do.

What is Putin going to do with all these mercenaries once he no longer has the ability to pay his own troops, let alone them?  He is aware, I hope, that these mercenaries will go wherever the money is, and that we will not hesitate to use them against him at the first opportunity.  

Well I suspect most of the mercenaries will end up conducting a magnificent advance across Ukraine and beyond deep, deep into the EU. Of course, that’s because they’re going to surrender as soon as possible to get the hell away from Syria and Russia.

[Storr]

Those cheeky Brits are at it again.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1504599012757975047?s=20&t=8Hp3gfv...

[WMS]

Definitely not concerning language from Putin:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1504117674934247432?s=20&t=Zj9hz4g...

Hey tankies, THIS is what fascism looks like!

[Storr]

Congratulations Russia! You've already lost more than 1,500 vehicles in your "special military operation". Impressive!

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1504596289815818245?s=20&t=8Hp3gfv...

[compucomp]

https://twitter.com/BeijingPalmer/status/1504551175747784704?s=20&t=xZU0kT80...
More China stuff. Apparently the line from the censors is to avoid content that is clearly pro or anti Ukraine/Russia and just present the situation. Which matches what Bejing seems to be signaling: neutrality with the aim of exploiting the eventual outcome to its fullest.  

Yeah for all compucomp claiming to be a CCP hack he is being quite weird here. It seems his opinion is more pro Russia than anything. China rn is in a very strong position to just stay out of this and enjoy cheap Russian resources while not taking major relationship hits with the west. Compucomp is instead arguing for aid to Russia when that would cause actual relationship degradation. Now the US may be more hostile to China but China could definetely lose a lot of relation with the EU if they actively support Russia.

I'm aware that the situation is fluid and that China is adjusting its stance moving towards being more accommodating towards the West. Yesterday it was announced that China will work with the SEC to establish standards for Chinese firms to list in the US (disclaimer, I hold MCHI which went up 20% on this news), and while this has nothing to do with the war, this is a signal on China's attitude on it since with China the level of cooperation with the West is tightly correlated on everything. If you read my posts carefully I'm not expressing pro-Russian views but rather views opposing Western hegemony and bullying behavior; unlike the actual Russians here that got banned, I never made any comment on how Ukrainians don't deserve their own country, that they're a bunch of Nazis, defending Russia's conduct in the war, etc.

If our leaders judge that the right thing to do is to beat a retreat, back away from Russia, and repair relations with the West, then I'll suck it up and adjust my views since they know better than me. Sometimes one just has to accept an L. Up until last week or so the official stance of the Foreign Ministry was quite bellicose and anti-Western so I'm not the only one that has to make an adjustment. We'll see how the Biden-Xi call goes, if Biden really wants to encourage Xi down this path then he will retreat a bit on some of his other anti-China stances, or he can push Xi back towards Putin by not doing so.

[Storr]

Infer what you want from the fact that this helmet cam video was found by someone. The Russians sure have no reason to publicize it...

https://twitter.com/mccannst/status/1504586829407744005?s=20&t=8jSIoFi4g8dG7...

Edit: Evidently this was from February 24th, which makes sense. Those dudes seem completely surprised that they're facing opposition and unsure what to do.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1504603878133846018?s=20&t=kkGD9mdUFUYrSIFYJPBwsg  

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Those cheeky Brits are at it again.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1504599012757975047?s=20&t=8Hp3gfv...

Looks like the Brits didn't get Forumlurkers' memo about how there's no hope for Ukraine since 3 weeks ago 2 weeks ago last week yesterday today

[Frodo]

Russia’s fumbling invasion, visualized





Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/17/russias-fumbling-invasion-visualized/

By the beginning of 1967, the total cumulative amount of American adviser/combat deaths in Vietnam (beginning in the late 1950s) reached ~8,700:



If these figures are to be believed, Russia is already more than halfway there after three weeks in Ukraine.  

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1504412350102839298

No, you don't.

[ugabug]

Looks like Russia took some pretty major casualties during its assault on Izium.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1504531396748058629?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

Also looks like there could still be hundred still trapped under the theater that Russia bombed.

https://twitter.com/KatieLysenko/status/1504561312919171075?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1504412350102839298

No, you don't.

Given that he was once the (presumably) somewhat "softer" version of Putin, Medvedev has been a large disappointment lately. Also see his threats to Germany that gas prices are gonna double with the cancellation of Nord Stream 2. At least he could shut up, but apparently he's a complete Putin cheerleader.

Speaking of Germany, my government seemed to have dropped to ball badly today. Zelenskyy had addressed German parliament in the morning. Afterwards, the CDU/CSU had filed for a motion to hold a debate on Ukraine. This motion was voted down by the government parties, and instead the scheduled debate on a general vaccine mandate was held. Even with media outlets which are ideologically close to the government parties this seemed to have backfired, with Scholz being blasted as tone deaf and having missed a chance to give the Ukraine issue the room it deserved, in particular in light of the criticism Zelenskyy had brought forward against Germany's pre-invasion policies in his speech.

[Splash]

It's sort of hilarious to watch Medvedev's repeated warmongering since it's so obviously a vain attempt to regain Putin's favor. His performance at the meeting of the Russian Security Council right before the war was a sight to see. I wouldn't be surprised if he's openly advocating slinging nukes by next week.

[LostFellow]

-snip-

More China stuff. Apparently the line from the censors is to avoid content that is clearly pro or anti Ukraine/Russia and just present the situation. Which matches what Bejing seems to be signaling: neutrality with the aim of exploiting the eventual outcome to its fullest.  

If China today were a person he would be a libertarian masquerading as a hardline communist and you can’t convince me otherwise.

So just Santander (minus the communist but plus the fascist) then?

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1504412350102839298

No, you don't.

No, they can’t.

[Storr]

Because this current war has many similarities to the Winter War of 1939-40, I decided to read more about it. This description of the Soviet diplomatic and media/propaganda campaign in the lead up to the war could easily be describing Russia's actions this year:

"It demonstrated the classic example of modern political-military aggression: the initial "reasonable" demands for bases and border rectifications, the doubtful border incidents, the whipping up of war fever among the people through the press and radio, the proclamation of the aggressive intent of the potential victim, all rising to a well-timed crescendo on the day of the surprise attack."

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1504520219368296449

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1504576308239474689

[Inmate Trump]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-17/putin-is-likely-to-make-nuclear-threats-if-war-drags-u-s-says?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=news_tab#l0vog8o0374sqrenlh8

This article suggests US intelligence believes Putin may begin threatening nuclear strikes against Ukraine or even the West the longer his war continues.

[Storr]

Because this current war has many similarities to the Winter War of 1939-40, I decided to read more about it. This description of the Soviet diplomatic and media/propaganda campaign in the lead up to the war could easily be describing Russia's actions this year:

"It demonstrated the classic example of modern political-military aggression: the initial "reasonable" demands for bases and border rectifications, the doubtful border incidents, the whipping up of war fever among the people through the press and radio, the proclamation of the aggressive intent of the potential victim, all rising to a well-timed crescendo on the day of the surprise attack."

Hmmm...this seems familiar:

"After such a build-up the average Russian civilian or soldier could have little doubt that the Russian-Finnish conflict would be merely a 'local' war, and that within three days, or at most a week, Finland would be brought to her knees.  

On this note of anticipated success the Russian press concluded its campaign to bestir the Soviet people and prepare them for a war with Finland. They had presented a good excuse for securing control of Finland (to protect Leningrad) and had predicted that any war, given the disparity in
population and strength, would be very short. Unfortunately, they neglected to convince the Finns of these facts. That omission would create great difficulties later on."

[AndyHogan14]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-17/putin-is-likely-to-make-nuclear-threats-if-war-drags-u-s-says?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=news_tab#l0vog8o0374sqrenlh8

This article suggests US intelligence believes Putin may begin threatening nuclear strikes against Ukraine or even the West the longer his war continues.

I saw that earlier...you have to hope that there would be a palace coup in the event of Putin ordering a nuclear strike. If not, we will have no choice but to go in, clear Ukraine of all Russian troops, and figure out a special operation to take out Putin.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-17/putin-is-likely-to-make-nuclear-threats-if-war-drags-u-s-says?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=news_tab#l0vog8o0374sqrenlh8

This article suggests US intelligence believes Putin may begin threatening nuclear strikes against Ukraine or even the West the longer his war continues.

Yeah, and the next stage would be Putin boasting about how he grabbed the female members of the Bolshoi Theatre by the pussy. What a little man.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/BeijingPalmer/status/1504551175747784704?s=20&t=xZU0kT80...
More China stuff. Apparently the line from the censors is to avoid content that is clearly pro or anti Ukraine/Russia and just present the situation. Which matches what Bejing seems to be signaling: neutrality with the aim of exploiting the eventual outcome to its fullest.  

Yeah for all compucomp claiming to be a CCP hack he is being quite weird here. It seems his opinion is more pro Russia than anything. China rn is in a very strong position to just stay out of this and enjoy cheap Russian resources while not taking major relationship hits with the west. Compucomp is instead arguing for aid to Russia when that would cause actual relationship degradation. Now the US may be more hostile to China but China could definetely lose a lot of relation with the EU if they actively support Russia.

I'm aware that the situation is fluid and that China is adjusting its stance moving towards being more accommodating towards the West. Yesterday it was announced that China will work with the SEC to establish standards for Chinese firms to list in the US (disclaimer, I hold MCHI which went up 20% on this news), and while this has nothing to do with the war, this is a signal on China's attitude on it since with China the level of cooperation with the West is tightly correlated on everything. If you read my posts carefully I'm not expressing pro-Russian views but rather views opposing Western hegemony and bullying behavior; unlike the actual Russians here that got banned, I never made any comment on how Ukrainians don't deserve their own country, that they're a bunch of Nazis, defending Russia's conduct in the war, etc.

If our leaders judge that the right thing to do is to beat a retreat, back away from Russia, and repair relations with the West, then I'll suck it up and adjust my views since they know better than me. Sometimes one just has to accept an L. Up until last week or so the official stance of the Foreign Ministry was quite bellicose and anti-Western so I'm not the only one that has to make an adjustment. We'll see how the Biden-Xi call goes, if Biden really wants to encourage Xi down this path then he will retreat a bit on some of his other anti-China stances, or he can push Xi back towards Putin by not doing so.

You know that you're still allowed to have opinions separate from those of the Chinese government, even if they are worse than the Chinese government's rather than better, right? Don't let us, or Xi, stop you from being a pro-tyranny hack if that's what you believe is right.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/BeijingPalmer/status/1504551175747784704?s=20&t=xZU0kT80...
More China stuff. Apparently the line from the censors is to avoid content that is clearly pro or anti Ukraine/Russia and just present the situation. Which matches what Bejing seems to be signaling: neutrality with the aim of exploiting the eventual outcome to its fullest.  

Yeah for all compucomp claiming to be a CCP hack he is being quite weird here. It seems his opinion is more pro Russia than anything. China rn is in a very strong position to just stay out of this and enjoy cheap Russian resources while not taking major relationship hits with the west. Compucomp is instead arguing for aid to Russia when that would cause actual relationship degradation. Now the US may be more hostile to China but China could definetely lose a lot of relation with the EU if they actively support Russia.

I'm aware that the situation is fluid and that China is adjusting its stance moving towards being more accommodating towards the West. Yesterday it was announced that China will work with the SEC to establish standards for Chinese firms to list in the US (disclaimer, I hold MCHI which went up 20% on this news), and while this has nothing to do with the war, this is a signal on China's attitude on it since with China the level of cooperation with the West is tightly correlated on everything. If you read my posts carefully I'm not expressing pro-Russian views but rather views opposing Western hegemony and bullying behavior; unlike the actual Russians here that got banned, I never made any comment on how Ukrainians don't deserve their own country, that they're a bunch of Nazis, defending Russia's conduct in the war, etc.

If our leaders judge that the right thing to do is to beat a retreat, back away from Russia, and repair relations with the West, then I'll suck it up and adjust my views since they know better than me. Sometimes one just has to accept an L. Up until last week or so the official stance of the Foreign Ministry was quite bellicose and anti-Western so I'm not the only one that has to make an adjustment. We'll see how the Biden-Xi call goes, if Biden really wants to encourage Xi down this path then he will retreat a bit on some of his other anti-China stances, or he can push Xi back towards Putin by not doing so.

Pretty sure you specifically argued that China should send aid to Russia. This makes no sense from a Chinese perspective as China is getting great deals from Russia. This is also the first event in a long time which has truly united the West. Seeing Germany go to 2% GDP spending on military spending finally is a huge step.  Meanwhile as it stands the US is generally quite anti China as a whole from either party but the EU is much more mixed. Trying to push the EU back towards the US is utterly idiotic. The only answer for wanting China to send aid to Russia is either to actually help Russia or literally owning the libs where liberal means the collective West as a whole.

[Oryxslayer]

Because this current war has many similarities to the Winter War of 1939-40, I decided to read more about it. This description of the Soviet diplomatic and media/propaganda campaign in the lead up to the war could easily be describing Russia's actions this year:

"It demonstrated the classic example of modern political-military aggression: the initial "reasonable" demands for bases and border rectifications, the doubtful border incidents, the whipping up of war fever among the people through the press and radio, the proclamation of the aggressive intent of the potential victim, all rising to a well-timed crescendo on the day of the surprise attack."

Hmmm...this seems familiar:

"After such a build-up the average Russian civilian or soldier could have little doubt that the Russian-Finnish conflict would be merely a 'local' war, and that within three days, or at most a week, Finland would be brought to her knees.  

On this note of anticipated success the Russian press concluded its campaign to bestir the Soviet people and prepare them for a war with Finland. They had presented a good excuse for securing control of Finland (to protect Leningrad) and had predicted that any war, given the disparity in
population and strength, would be very short. Unfortunately, they neglected to convince the Finns of these facts. That omission would create great difficulties later on."

I would also suggest reading on the Crimean War - less the battles and tactics involved but more the political, strategic, and long-term aspects of the conflict. There is a lot of similarities in these fields, and one can say that what NATO is doing right now is analogous to the UK/France sending expeditionary forces when one accounts for the changes in warfare, travel times, and the ways or options available for countries earn other countries favor. Orlando Figes has a good book and a separate Audiobook covering this subject, but the audiobook was 20+ hrs long so prepare for long reads.

[compucomp]

https://twitter.com/BeijingPalmer/status/1504551175747784704?s=20&t=xZU0kT80...
More China stuff. Apparently the line from the censors is to avoid content that is clearly pro or anti Ukraine/Russia and just present the situation. Which matches what Bejing seems to be signaling: neutrality with the aim of exploiting the eventual outcome to its fullest.  

Yeah for all compucomp claiming to be a CCP hack he is being quite weird here. It seems his opinion is more pro Russia than anything. China rn is in a very strong position to just stay out of this and enjoy cheap Russian resources while not taking major relationship hits with the west. Compucomp is instead arguing for aid to Russia when that would cause actual relationship degradation. Now the US may be more hostile to China but China could definetely lose a lot of relation with the EU if they actively support Russia.

I'm aware that the situation is fluid and that China is adjusting its stance moving towards being more accommodating towards the West. Yesterday it was announced that China will work with the SEC to establish standards for Chinese firms to list in the US (disclaimer, I hold MCHI which went up 20% on this news), and while this has nothing to do with the war, this is a signal on China's attitude on it since with China the level of cooperation with the West is tightly correlated on everything. If you read my posts carefully I'm not expressing pro-Russian views but rather views opposing Western hegemony and bullying behavior; unlike the actual Russians here that got banned, I never made any comment on how Ukrainians don't deserve their own country, that they're a bunch of Nazis, defending Russia's conduct in the war, etc.

If our leaders judge that the right thing to do is to beat a retreat, back away from Russia, and repair relations with the West, then I'll suck it up and adjust my views since they know better than me. Sometimes one just has to accept an L. Up until last week or so the official stance of the Foreign Ministry was quite bellicose and anti-Western so I'm not the only one that has to make an adjustment. We'll see how the Biden-Xi call goes, if Biden really wants to encourage Xi down this path then he will retreat a bit on some of his other anti-China stances, or he can push Xi back towards Putin by not doing so.

Pretty sure you specifically argued that China should send aid to Russia. This makes no sense from a Chinese perspective as China is getting great deals from Russia. This is also the first event in a long time which has truly united the West. Seeing Germany go to 2% GDP spending on military spending finally is a huge step.  Meanwhile as it stands the US is generally quite anti China as a whole from either party but the EU is much more mixed. Trying to push the EU back towards the US is utterly idiotic. The only answer for wanting China to send aid to Russia is either to actually help Russia or literally owning the libs where liberal means the collective West as a whole.

After how the West has treated China for generations, you're damn right China wants to stick it to the West. This has even extended to how they have treated China during this war, almost as if it were a belligerent, as compared to India which has received kid gloves, despite the actions of their governments being the same. Of course China wants to support Russia to spite the West. There will be a day when China stands up and challenges the West rather than accommodating them, and honestly I'd rather see that sooner rather than later since it's tough to watch China get pushed around and bullied. Clearly the West is not interested in genuinely dealing with us on equal terms as a partner nation.