Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

Definitely not concerning language from Putin:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1504117674934247432?s=20&t=Zj9hz4g...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Definitely not concerning language from Putin:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1504117674934247432?s=20&t=Zj9hz4g...

Putin: Purges are cool.

[Storr]

Russian officers at the front: "Don't worry lads, the South Ossetians are coming!"

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1504056749229326343?s=20&t=YP_9vqyiY3H...

[Frodo]

The Russian Federation had been on this CoE human rights body since the mid-1990s:

Council of Europe expels Russia from human rights body

[Torie]

Definitely not concerning language from Putin:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1504117674934247432?s=20&t=Zj9hz4g...

That really is concerning. The guy might really, really be nuts.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Russian officers at the front: "Don't worry lads, the South Ossetians are coming!"

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1504056749229326343?s=20&t=YP_9vqyiY3H...

South Ossetia apparently has 2,500 active duty personnel and fifteen tanks:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Forces_of_South_Ossetia

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

If this deal happens, hypothetically, do the sanctions end?

[Storr]

Ummm...what?
(Note that this guy is part of the government in exile, not affiliated with Lukashenko's organized crime syndicate "government".)
https://twitter.com/PavelLatushka/status/1504200509481173006?s=20&t=6br2t5EE...

[AndyHogan14]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

If this deal happens, hypothetically, do the sanctions end?

I think that depends on the status of the Donbas and Crimea, something that I haven't seen too much about in terms of the chatter related to this possible deal.

[rc18]

In the ongoing on and off again saga of the S-300 missiles, vis a vis the US, they are off. While Biden does not mind other nations giving Ukraine such missiles, the US will not. Why?  KISS. They are too complicated he thinks for Ukraine to use effectively and something might go "wrong." And the US does not want to send personnel to help. So says CNN.

Does this make a lot of sense to this particular challenged old mind? Not really.

Anyone here a pro in using S-300 missiles? Dead0man? Anyone here run a country that has a few that they could spare?

S-300s are Ukraine's primary anti-air missile system.  wiki cite  You'd have to assume that even if what we were offering was a different version than they are used to (there are a mess of flavors), it still would be a fairly easy learning curve....or not I guess.  It certainly seems like a sh**tty excuse, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it is.

None of the news stories I've lightly Googled about it mention what version the US is offering.

I don't know what Torie is talking about, since the US wouldn't have any S-300s to give. It is an old Soviet system that the US has never used.

This might help. I am a mere conduit. I have no personal knowledge of things military. And it is always possible I got things mixed up. The mind is no longer a terrible thing to waste when it goes senile.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/15/politics/biden-congress-soviet-made-weapons-ukraine/index.html

Yeah, this is just about brokering deals with others who have the S-300 system (there aren't that many left in friendly countries), and the difficulties in finding US-supplied replacements etc. Like the Migs, the US doesn't have any themselves.

The problem is the longer this goes on the fewer old Soviet tech is going to be available, so NATO will have to decide if it wants to send Ukraine newer kit.

We in the UK don't seem to have a problem with that...

[Torie]

Ummm...what?
(Note that this guy is part of the government in exile, not affiliated with Lukashenko's organized crime syndicate"government".)
https://twitter.com/PavelLatushka/status/1504200509481173006?s=20&t=6br2t5EE...

That plane looks very gay. How much does it cost?

[AndyHogan14]

Ummm...what?
(Note that this guy is part of the government in exile, not affiliated with Lukashenko's organized crime syndicate "government".)
https://twitter.com/PavelLatushka/status/1504200509481173006?s=20&t=6br2t5EE...

Coup? Russian false flag operation? Military exercises? Let's hope for the coup! 🤣

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ummm...what?
(Note that this guy is part of the government in exile, not affiliated with Lukashenko's organized crime syndicate"government".)
https://twitter.com/PavelLatushka/status/1504200509481173006?s=20&t=6br2t5EE...

That plane looks very gay. How much does it cost?

Su-34, I think.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-34

[Storr]

Ummm...what?
(Note that this guy is part of the government in exile, not affiliated with Lukashenko's organized crime syndicate "government".)
https://twitter.com/PavelLatushka/status/1504200509481173006?s=20&t=6br2t5EE...

Coup? Russian false flag operation? Military exercises? Let's hope for the coup! 🤣

Supposedly it might be exercises...but who conducts live fire exercises at 00:30, in the middle of the night???

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1504210834456784896?s=20&t=2nNT16gwz_1...

[rc18]

Ummm...what?
(Note that this guy is part of the government in exile, not affiliated with Lukashenko's organized crime syndicate"government".)
https://twitter.com/PavelLatushka/status/1504200509481173006?s=20&t=6br2t5EE...

That plane looks very gay. How much does it cost?

Su-34, I think.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-34

Yeah it's a 34. $30-40m each

[President Johnson]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

If this deal happens, hypothetically, do the sanctions end?

I don't think so and certainly hope not. The Russians have committed numerous war crimes and Putin is responsible for thousands of deaths. Just because he stops the killing after having failed to win the war, we can't just return to business as usual and pretend all of that never happened.

[Torie]

Ummm...what?
(Note that this guy is part of the government in exile, not affiliated with Lukashenko's organized crime syndicate"government".)
https://twitter.com/PavelLatushka/status/1504200509481173006?s=20&t=6br2t5EE...

That plane looks very gay. How much does it cost?

Su-34, I think.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-34

Yeah it's a 34. $30-40m each

Damn. Pity the denomination was not in rubles.

[Storr]

Ummm...what?
(Note that this guy is part of the government in exile, not affiliated with Lukashenko's organized crime syndicate "government".)
https://twitter.com/PavelLatushka/status/1504200509481173006?s=20&t=6br2t5EE...

Coup? Russian false flag operation? Military exercises? Let's hope for the coup! 🤣

Supposedly it might be exercises...but who conducts live fire exercises at 00:30, in the middle of the night???

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1504210834456784896?s=20&t=2nNT16gwz_1...

This quote feels at least a little bit "nothing to see here":

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1504205758476558340?s=20&t=1OnzWbTd...

[NOVA Green]

Speaking of Belarus...

https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1503645559562948610?s=20&t=hNDzt0F...

[Storr]

Now at three pages. I can only imagine how many junior officers and enlisted the Russians have lost. I'd be calling up the South Ossetians too.

https://twitter.com/4ukraine834614/status/1504205262458077196?s=20&t=E7d9yaf...

[All Along The Watchtower]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

If this deal happens, hypothetically, do the sanctions end?

I think that depends on the status of the Donbas and Crimea, something that I haven't seen too much about in terms of the chatter related to this possible deal.

Russia will never agree to cede control of those.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

"The S-300s [including a type that only the US could possess] have arrived."

"The S-300s are actually on the way. The S-300s in Ukraine are the ones that were already there."

"The US doesn't have any S-300s [at least, not ones it's prepared to give]. Slovakia has signalled its willingness to provide S-300s with backfills."

"Well, actually..."

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1504164884300316677
Remember when the MiG-29s were going to arrive in Ukraine "within the hour?" Maybe I'm dooming a bit, but this looks like an awfully similar trajectory. Bulgaria and Greece, for differing reasons, are less inclined to give up their S-300s even with compensation. My hunch is that Slovakia will eventually send its single battery of S-300 systems, but the difficulty in getting it to do so does not bode well for getting any more.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile a mixture of Polish activists and Ukrainians in Poland have been blockading trucks from Russia and Belarus attempting to leave the country to take goods across the border.


https://lublin.wyborcza.pl/lublin/7,48724,28219276,ukraincy-blokujacy-ciezarowki-jadace-do-rosji-sparalizowali.html

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/polan-efforts-to-block-russian-convoy-of-trucks/news-story/07ce4f770213b0c948fb416a5633f2f0

https://twitter.com/ArpYyc/status/1503346272341688323?s=20&t=hNDzt0FnFvMiR4X...

[AndyHogan14]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

If this deal happens, hypothetically, do the sanctions end?

I think that depends on the status of the Donbas and Crimea, something that I haven't seen too much about in terms of the chatter related to this possible deal.

Russia will never agree to cede control of those.

I disagree with you on the Donbas (I don't think Russia really cares about them), but the only way I see Crimea going back to Ukraine is due to regime change in Moscow. With that said, I cannot imagine that Ukraine would accept a deal in which they formally renounce any claim to Crimea and certainly not the Donbas. Since I was talking about the sanctions being lifted, I feel as if there has to be some resolution in those two territories to go back to some semblance of normalcy.

[Storr]

Meanwhile a mixture of Polish activists and Ukrainians in Poland have been blockading trucks from Russia and Belarus attempting to leave the country to take goods across the border.


https://lublin.wyborcza.pl/lublin/7,48724,28219276,ukraincy-blokujacy-ciezarowki-jadace-do-rosji-sparalizowali.html

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/polan-efforts-to-block-russian-convoy-of-trucks/news-story/07ce4f770213b0c948fb416a5633f2f0

https://twitter.com/ArpYyc/status/1503346272341688323?s=20&t=hNDzt0FnFvMiR4X...

If Poland and Lithuania decide to blockade Kaliningrad, things could get interesting.