Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1504142139101483025

Just to temper the sentiment, it appears at first glance that these are merely reconnaissance drones (TUAS; akin to the Russian one that Ukrainians shot down after flying into Poland/Romania) and not Predator/Bayraktar TB2 UAV drones.

[NOVA Green]

Okay, no idea if this is true or not, but I would imagine that Franak Viačorka still has some connections in Belarus and it does appear that public opinion in that country is overwhelmingly opposed to direct military intervention supporting the Russians in Ukraine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franak_Via%C4%8Dorka

https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1504058093159727108?s=20&t=LIeHdVP...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1504142139101483025

Just to temper the sentiment, it appears at first glance that these are merely reconnaissance drones (TUAS; akin to the Russian one that Ukrainians shot down after flying into Poland/Romania) and not Predator/Bayraktar TB2 UAV drones.

Those were the ones sent before the war. The ones being sent now are Switchblades. They can do reconnaissance, but they are also "kamikaze" drones that can blow up lightly armoured vehicles/tanks, depending on the model (the ones being sent are probably the earlier, weaker and more numerous ones).

They don't compare to the Bayraktar, but they give Ukraine a short-term boost to its capacity to harass convoys, and one that could be renewed with the supply of more switchblades - in theory.

I have written about my scepticism of this because there was no indication that Ukraine had training with switchblades. If there wasn't covert training, there are three scenarios: (a)the learning curve is really fast, (b)there is a significant delay while Ukraine trains with weapons it can't use, and (c)Ukraine puts them into use ineffectively with underprepared operators.

The switchblades are relatively new tech and the US stocks and production of them is rather limited. Even if Ukraine uses them well, resupply of these drones to the extent that e.g. anti-tank missiles are resupplied could become unrealistic.

[Meclazine for Israel]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1504142139101483025

Just to temper the sentiment, it appears at first glance that these are merely reconnaissance drones (TUAS; akin to the Russian one that Ukrainians shot down after flying into Poland/Romania) and not Predator/Bayraktar TB2 UAV drones.

They would just be intelligence gathering drones.

Biden has illustrated a clear picture that the US are not getting involved with bullets and tanks.

I think it's good that he drew a line in the sand.

[Adam Griffin]

This might very well be the best time in decades for nations to engage in "reclamation efforts" against long-term Russian expansion. One can only imagine what might happen if there was a coordinated effort where Japan tried to retake the Kurils, Georgia in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Finland with Karelia (maybe even Kaliningrad by Germany, Poland and/or Lithuania)...

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1504142139101483025

Just to temper the sentiment, it appears at first glance that these are merely reconnaissance drones (TUAS; akin to the Russian one that Ukrainians shot down after flying into Poland/Romania) and not Predator/Bayraktar TB2 UAV drones.

Those were the ones sent before the war. The ones being sent now are Switchblades. They can do reconnaissance, but they are also "kamikaze" drones that can blow up lightly armoured vehicles/tanks, depending on the model (the ones being sent are probably the earlier, weaker and more numerous ones).

They don't compare to the Bayraktar, but they give Ukraine a short-term boost to its capacity to harass convoys, and one that could be renewed with the supply of more switchblades - in theory.

I have written about my scepticism of this because there was no indication that Ukraine had training with switchblades. If there wasn't covert training, there are three scenarios: (a)the learning curve is really fast, (b)there is a significant delay while Ukraine trains with weapons it can't use, and (c)Ukraine puts them into use ineffectively with underprepared operators.

The switchblades are relatively new tech and the US stocks and production of them is rather limited. Even if Ukraine uses them well, resupply of these drones to the extent that e.g. anti-tank missiles are resupplied could become unrealistic.

And here's a Tweet which includes a demo version of the product.

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1504152301191245824?s=20&t=ngwzEq4-Ys...

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1504142139101483025

Just to temper the sentiment, it appears at first glance that these are merely reconnaissance drones (TUAS; akin to the Russian one that Ukrainians shot down after flying into Poland/Romania) and not Predator/Bayraktar TB2 UAV drones.

Those were the ones sent before the war. The ones being sent now are Switchblades. They can do reconnaissance, but they are also "kamikaze" drones that can blow up lightly armoured vehicles/tanks, depending on the model (the ones being sent are probably the earlier, weaker and more numerous ones).

They don't compare to the Bayraktar, but they give Ukraine a short-term boost to its capacity to harass convoys, and one that could be renewed with the supply of more switchblades - in theory.

I have written about my scepticism of this because there was no indication that Ukraine had training with switchblades. If there wasn't covert training, there are three scenarios: (a)the learning curve is really fast, (b)there is a significant delay while Ukraine trains with weapons it can't use, and (c)Ukraine puts them into use ineffectively with underprepared operators.

The switchblades are relatively new tech and the US stocks and production of them is rather limited. Even if Ukraine uses them well, resupply of these drones to the extent that e.g. anti-tank missiles are resupplied could become unrealistic.

They also seem to be extremely economical. The big boy Predator is millions of dollars per unit, whereas (if Wikipedia is anywhere near accurate) says the Switchblade cost $6,000 a piece. Almost seems unbelievable, but if such a thing can be used in a "kamikaze" sense, that's pretty dang affordable.

[Logical]

Something is definitely afoot in Belarus. Probably not a coup but who knows.
https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1504220792908926987

[Storr]

This might very well be the best time in decades for nations to engage in "reclamation efforts" against long-term Russian expansion. One can only imagine what might happen if there was a coordinated effort where Japan tried to retake the Kurils, Georgia in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Finland with Karelia (maybe even Kaliningrad by Germany, Poland and/or Lithuania)...

Meanwhile I'm over here imaging independence for Siberia, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan (or Bashkiria), and the Northern Caucasus (as one federalized country, each Caucasian ethnic republic is too small to be its own country).

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1504237073464766466?s=20&t=NormD0P...

[NOVA Green]

Not sure if this is related, but came across this earlier today...

https://twitter.com/AnonOpsSE/status/1504177337591603201?s=20&t=qMqAQHFalm_Q...

https://twitter.com/AosmanZeynep/status/1503148950982955012?s=20&t=qMqAQHFal...

[Meclazine for Israel]

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What a smart meme.

[NOVA Green]

Looks like we just got an update about the Ukrainian Mayor of Melitopol, who was kidnapped the other day per CNN:

Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov was freed from detention by Russian forces as part of a prisoner swap, Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security said in a statement Thursday.

Fedorov was exchanged for nine Russian soldiers, whom the Ukrainians say are “conscripts,” born between 2002 and 2003, the statement said.

....

Fedorov was taken to Luhansk after his detention and held for five days. He was allegedly advised to cooperate with Russia, which he declined to do, according to Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security.

...

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-16-22/h_494b05794c471f9eee41b00829e8a127

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1504134926861545478

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

Would Ukraine still be able to join the EU?

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1504218138510073857?s=20&t=qMqAQHFalm_Q...

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1504165292511043591

[It’s so Joever]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

Would Ukraine still be able to join the EU?

And what about Donetsk/Luhansk? Those are two wildcards that have to be discussed.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1504218138510073857?s=20&t=qMqAQHFalm_Q...

As soon as I noticed how off center the Z was, I couldn't stop focusing on it.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Truth be told, my main subject in poli science was not international relations, but comparative politics.

I minored in 20th century history though, where I wrote papers on the Bay of Pigs invasion as well as on the topic of East German military aid to socialist "brother" countries in Africa during the Cold War.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1504167224906600451
https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1504136862277017607

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

Would Ukraine still be able to join the EU?

Probably, but joining the EU wouldn't be a speedy process for the poorest country in Europe.

[sting in the rafters]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

Would Ukraine still be able to join the EU?

Uncertain, though due to EU's criteria and inner politics more than any military situation. Turkey's beef over Cyprus is keeping them out and Spain might be afraid Catalonia will declare independence if Ukraine's allowed in with territorial disputes. The Ukrainian government still needs to meet standards regarding public official/law enforcement corruption.

Moreover, the Kremlin is calling for no foreign troops not only in Ukraine, but for all foreign troops to leave the former Warsaw Pact/USSR nations which have since joined NATO/EU. That should signal what the Kremlin's ambitions are.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1504167224906600451
https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1504136862277017607

Zelenskyy advisor Alexander Rodnyansky was on a German TV talkshow tonight and he said that Putin isn't actually interested in a negotiated peace, but the purpose of the talks is to buy time for Russia to get their military organized again.