Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Pres Mike]

So, how is the war going? Are the Russians going to take Kyiev any time so? Can the Ukrainians actually push them out?

[NOVA Green]

So, how is the war going? Are the Russians going to take Kyiev any time so? Can the Ukrainians actually push them out?

So here's a link to the message I posted earlier to the same Twitter guy maps with text by each "front" which our own Logical used to upload daily.

I didn't do nearly as decent a job as he did where you can easily open one of the maps in an individual window and zoom in to see the text clearly. Probably best to just click on the Twitter link for the 3/5/22 update to see in greater resolution.   

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=469771.msg8510931#msg8510931

[Torie]

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/visa-suspends-operations-russia-over-ukraine-invasion-2022-03-05/

"Visa, Mastercard suspend operations in Russia over Ukraine invasion"

It seems Visa and Mastercard cards issued with Russian banks and used inside Russia will continue to work.  What will not work is if you are a Russian with one of those cards issued by a Russian bank with a Visa or Mastercard card and try to use it internationally.  Likewise, if you are a foreigner that wants to use a Visa or Mastercard card issued outside of Russia in Russia, it will not work.  If so the impact of this one sounds large but is most likely limited.

One would think the Russian banks could issue their own cards for internal use in short order no? Not that there will be much money to draw upon that is sitting in Russian banks by Russians though. So I think it is a big deal if Russians are cut off from drawing upon funds sitting in foreign banks.

The way Visa and Mastercard works is that they actually do not extend credit.  It is the banks that issue the card that actually extend credit.  Visa and Mastercard only work as network processors.  My understanding is that Russian banks will now shift to using PRC's Unionpay which works a lot like Visa and Mastercard but on PRC as an alternative network processor.

But being in Russia with a card issued by a foreign bank will not work in Russia, so Russians in Russia with such cards won't be able to use them.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/visa-suspends-operations-russia-over-ukraine-invasion-2022-03-05/

"Visa, Mastercard suspend operations in Russia over Ukraine invasion"

It seems Visa and Mastercard cards issued with Russian banks and used inside Russia will continue to work.  What will not work is if you are a Russian with one of those cards issued by a Russian bank with a Visa or Mastercard card and try to use it internationally.  Likewise, if you are a foreigner that wants to use a Visa or Mastercard card issued outside of Russia in Russia, it will not work.  If so the impact of this one sounds large but is most likely limited.

One would think the Russian banks could issue their own cards for internal use in short order no? Not that there will be much money to draw upon that is sitting in Russian banks by Russians though. So I think it is a big deal if Russians are cut off from drawing upon funds sitting in foreign banks.

The way Visa and Mastercard works is that they actually do not extend credit.  It is the banks that issue the card that actually extend credit.  Visa and Mastercard only work as network processors.  My understanding is that Russian banks will now shift to using PRC's Unionpay which works a lot like Visa and Mastercard but on PRC as an alternative network processor.

But being in Russia with a card issued by a foreign bank will not work in Russia, so Russians in Russia with such cards won't be able to use them.

Correct. So the Russian upper class that have such cards are now high and dry.

[Mehmentum]

So, how is the war going? Are the Russians going to take Kyiev any time so? Can the Ukrainians actually push them out?

Russia has made zero (or perhaps negative) progress on encircling or taking Kyiv in the past few days.  Rumor has it that another major Russian offensive is in the works, so we'll see how that goes.

[Meclazine for Israel]

So, how is the war going? Are the Russians going to take Kyiev any time so? Can the Ukrainians actually push them out?

US and Europe still paying for Russian Oil.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60638255

This won't go down well.

[NOVA Green]

NYT update on the "Battle of Mykolaiv some 20 minutes ago:

"MYKOLAIV, Ukraine — The remains of a Russian Tigr fighting vehicle sat smoldering on the side of the road, as Ukrainian troops lounged outside their trenches smoking cigarettes.

For three days, Russian forces had fought to take Mykolaiv, but by Sunday, Ukrainian troops had driven them back from the city limits and retaken the airport, halting the Russian advance along the Black Sea, at least temporarily.

“Few expected such strength from our people because, when you haven’t slept for three days, and when you only have one dry ration because the rest burned up, when it’s negative temperature out and there is nothing to warm you, and when you are constantly in the fight, believe me, it is physically very difficult,” an exhausted Col. Sviatoslav Stetsenko, of the Ukrainian Army’s 59th Brigade, said in an interview. “But our people endured this.”

Taking Mykolaiv remains a key objective for Russian forces, and the boom of artillery in the distance on Sunday suggested that the Ukrainians had not pushed them back that far. But the unexpected Ukrainian success of defending this critical port underscores two emerging trends in the war.

Russia’s failure to seize Mykolaiv and other cities quickly is largely a function of its military’s faltering performance. Russian forces have suffered from logistical snafus, baffling tactical decisions and low morale.

But it is the fierce and, according to many analysts, unexpectedly capable defense by Ukrainian forces, who are significantly outgunned, that has largely stalled the Russian advance and, for now, prevented Mykolaiv from falling into Russian hands.

For three days, troops from the Ukrainian Army’s 59th Brigade, together with other military and territorial defense units, have been defending Mykolaiv from Russian attack along several fronts, facing down punishing artillery barrages, helicopter attacks and rocket strikes, some of which have hit civilian neighborhoods.

Most military analysts and even some Ukrainian generals predicted that if Russia mounted a full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s military, which is dwarfed by its counterpart by almost every measure, would not last more than a few days or even hours. But by taking advantage of their local knowledge, attacking lumbering Russian troop columns with small, lithe units and using Western military assistance like antitank grenades to maximum effect, Ukrainian forces have managed to slow, if not stop, the Russian advance.

The governor of the Mykolaiv region, Vitaliy Kim, said that Russian forces were surrendering in unexpected numbers and had abandoned so much equipment that he did not have enough military and municipal workers to collect it all.

“We’re in a good mood now,” he said.

The time for such attitudes may be limited. A senior Ukrainian military official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military assessments, said that Russian forces outside Mykolaiv appeared to be regrouping and preparing for a counterattack, possibly with more firepower.

Russia still has many more troops and advanced weapons than Ukraine, and its air force now dominates the skies."







https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/06/world/ukraine-russia/ukrainian-troops-are-holding-a-russian-assault-of-a-key-port-city-at-bay-for-now

[Hindsight was 2020]

That’s huge. Russia needs control of Mykolaiv to realistically launch an attack on Odessa

[NOVA Green]

That’s huge. Russia needs control of Mykolaiv to realistically launch an attack on Odessa

Ties in with the story I posted earlier about Russian Artillery seized and a Twitter video which I didn't from 4 hours back.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=469771.msg8511266#msg8511266

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1500493217183289347

Then we have what appears to be police officers with captured Russian soliders (?)

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1500154223790538753



Then we got this:

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1500513612661760000


So IDK WTF is actually going on Mykolaiv, but certainly even if a bunch of the Tweets are Pro-Ukrainian propaganda, still sounds reading between the lines that this isn't positive for Russia.

Personally, Pro-Ukrainian sources tend to me much more accurate than anything from the Russian side, perhaps with the relatively easy access to upload content to Social Media via cell phones, where data can than be mined and verified, in a way which perhaps has not been the case in most recent large wars.

[NOVA Green]

Russian War Crimes in Ukraine Continue with massive disruption to Natural Gas

"Big swath of Ukraine cut off from natural gas after damage to pipeline, operator says

About a million consumers in southeastern Ukraine will be cut off from natural gas after Russian shelling damaged a main pipeline, according to the country’s Gas Transmission System Operator.

The blow to a key source of heating and cooking fuel came as Ukrainians in besieged Mariupol were already cut off from water, heat and electricity. Natural gas accounts for almost a third of Ukraine’s energy consumption, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The operator said Sunday that the pipeline was closed after dispatchers “recorded a sharp jump in pressure,” indicating damage. A huge swath of people in southeastern Ukraine — in the regions of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia — “will be left without a gas supply,” it said in a statement.

“Gas companies are looking for technical solutions to minimize losses and return gas supply to consumers,” the statement said. “It is impossible to start eliminating the accident due to the high intensity of hostilities.”

It also said “gas distribution stations” in the regions of Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Luhansk, Mykolaiv and Kherson are shut down.

"


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/06/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-VAOBVJNE7JG63JQZMF7W2GLSLM

[NOVA Green]

That’s huge. Russia needs control of Mykolaiv to realistically launch an attack on Odessa

CNN is covering this live now with local on the ground stuff...

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Here comes the barrel bombs...

https://mobile.twitter.com/PalmerReport/status/1500621931011321860

[WMS]

What I *suspect* is going on here ties into the "1,000 Russian Mercs" story which I reported earlier today after hearing a mention of it on CNN on the TV background.

This also jives with multiple other reports, which we have seen over the past week about the poor military performance of Russian conscripts, most of whom had no idea they were going to Ukraine until after they crossed the border.

We also know about the critical role that Russian mercenaries have played in Libya & Syria (Among other recent actions), with a major oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevgeny_Prigozhin

who runs "The Wagner Group".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group

Here is a bit of context:

https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/the-fallen-mercenaries-in-russias-dark-army/

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/wagner-group-what-russian-mercenearies-ukraine-president-zelensky-putin-1489364

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/06/what-is-wagner-group-russia-mercenaries-military-contractor/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/10/marat-gabidullin-russian-mercenary-wagner

Gee, it would be a shame if they “happened” to run into Western ex-military “volunteers” in Ukraine who just happened to be comprised of people on the same level of expertise as the ones who flatlined the fuckers in Syria a few years back.

And on a greater scale, please read the following:
https://twitter.com/mollymckew/status/1500620397644898306?s=21

Edit:

Here comes the barrel bombs...

https://mobile.twitter.com/PalmerReport/status/1500621931011321860

Assad can’t send his good troops because Turkey and its Syrian allies will pounce if they do.

[Torie]

This article towards its end gets into the startling notion that if the US dollar cannot be used to buy Russian oil, Russia will not be able to be paid for its oil. Color me confused on exactly how that works.

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/596962-efforts-to-decimate-russian-economy-threaten-to-boomerang

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1500633315426160642

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://mobile.twitter.com/vptevo/status/1500307182818054145

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Those "NATO laptops" are hysterical. Reminds me of the Trump supporter who claimed that she saw a ban labeled "Biden/Harris" pull up and people started unloading boxes of ballots off it as proof of vote fraud.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also not that we needed more proof those laptop labels are fake, but all official NATO labels are labeled both "NATO" and "OTAN" because NATO has two official languages: English and French.

How the actual NATO logo is labeled:




Got to love that these Russian propagandists weren't even aware of that! That's like Wikipedia article level of research.

[NOVA Green]

Denmark looking to vote on 6/1/22 Referendum on EU Defense Opt-Out


" Denmark to hold referendum on scrapping EU defence opt-out

PM urges voters to overturn existing policy in June and pledges boost to defence spending following Russian invasion of Ukraine

Denmark’s prime minister has called for the country’s citizens to overturn the country’s opt-out from EU defence policy in a referendum to be held on 1 June, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Historic times call for historic decisions,” Mette Frederiksen told a news conference on Sunday, adding that the government “very clearly calls on Danes to lift the opt-out on defence”.

Frederiksen also pledged to increase defence spending by 7bn kroner (£780m) over the next two years.

Calling it the “largest investment in recent decades”, Frederiksen set out plans to increase spending to 2% of GDP, in line with Nato membership requirements, by 2033.

Participating in the common security and defence policy (CSDP) would enable Denmark to take part in joint EU military operations and to cooperate on the development and acquisition of military capabilities within the EU framework.

“For me, as prime minister, this is a values-based decision,” Frederiksen said.

“Putin’s pointless and brutal attack on Ukraine has heralded a new era in Europe, a new reality,” she said. “Ukraine’s struggle is not just Ukraine’s; it’s a test of strength for everything we believe in: our values, democracy, human rights, peace and freedom.”

To accommodate higher defence spending, Denmark’s current budget restrictions will be eased, and the deficit will turn negative after 2025.

Frederiksen also said the main parliamentary parties had agreed that Denmark should become independent of Russian gas “as soon as possible”, although no timeframe was stipulated.

“We will also work towards this in the rest of Europe,” she said.

The referendum is part of an agreement reached on Sunday with a majority of parties in Denmark’s parliament, the Folketing.

...."




https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/06/denmark-to-hold-referendum-eu-defence-opt-out

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1500633315426160642

The onus is on Europe

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://mobile.twitter.com/vptevo/status/1500307182818054145

Yeltsin didn't work out for Russia.

[NOVA Green]

Reports from The Guardian ~10 minutes back that Russia is intending to do a full assault on Kiev:

"The Ukrainian military is reporting that Russia is planning on storming the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv.

Russian troops have “began to accumulate resources to storm Kyiv,” according to a report recently released by the general staff of the armed forces of Ukraine.

In city of Irpin on the western outskirts of Kyiv, Russian troops are making an advance towards the capital with tank and motorised infantry units as well as attempting to reach the eastern outskirts of Kyiv through the districts of Brovarsky and Boryspil, the military says.

Ukrainian officials also noted Russian forces are attempting to establish control over the cities of Chernihiv and Sumy but have “suffered significant losses” and needed to redeploy additional forces to “replenish manpower and equipment”."

Here is the Facebook Post from official Ukrainian Military Sources which the Guardian cites (So take with a bit of salt).


"The eleventh day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to the russian military invasion is over.

The enemy continues the offensive operation against Ukraine, focusing on the encirclement of Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Mykolayiv, reaching the administrative borders in Luhansk and Donetsk regions, creating a land corridor with the TOT of Crimea in the direction of Mariupol - Novoazovsk.

The invaders did not achieve the ultimate goal of eleven days of occupation.

The enemy group began to accumulate resources for the storming of Kyiv.

At the same time, the occupiers did not stop trying to prepare for the offensive in the Polissya, Siversky, Donetsk, and Tavriya directions.

In the Polissya direction, the enemy is trying to establish full control over the cities of Bucha and Irpin and get closer to the capital of Ukraine.

In the area of ​​the city of Irpin, the enemy is moving in advance tank and motorized infantry units.

From the territory of the Republic of Belarus through the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone the supply of fuel and other material means for the occupying forces continues.

In the northern direction, the occupiers are trying to provide a tactical advantage to reach the eastern outskirts of Kiev through Brovarsky and Boryspil districts, as well as to establish control over the cities of Chernihiv and Sumy.

After the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine inflicted fire damage on the places of accumulation of the enemy's weapons in the areas of Nova Basan and Skripali, the enemy suffered significant losses, redeployed additional forces to replenish manpower and equipment.

In the Tavriya direction, the occupiers are conducting an offensive with forces of up to three BTGs in the direction of the city of Zaporizhia. The enemy managed to restore the movement of trains on the Antonov railway bridge across the Dnieper.

In addition, the advance of enemy units in the northeastern direction along the Ingul River continues. BTGr forced the river and occupied settlement Kashpero-Nikolaevka.

The Defense Forces continues to conduct a defense operation in the South, East and North. In the course of hostilities, the city of Chuhuiv was liberated. The occupiers suffered heavy losses in personnel and equipment. Lieutenant Colonel Dmitry Safronov, Commander of the 61st Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces, and Lieutenant Colonel Denis Glebov, Deputy Commander of the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces, were killed.

Let's win together! Let's keep the system! Glory to Ukraine!

Разом переможемо! Тримаймо стрій! Слава Україні!"

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/266469205666165

[NOVA Green]

Mykolaiv Live Update---  ~30 minutes ago from the New York Times


"Russian forces launched a heavy artillery barrage against the strategic Ukrainian port city of Mykolaiv early Monday morning, a day after Ukrainian troops pushed them from the city limits. Flashes from the bombardment lit up the night sky along a large swath of the city though it was not immediately clear what the precise target was. After a ferocious three-day battle, Ukrainian troops defending the city had pushed Russian forces out of Mykolaiv and retaken the airport. The city was relatively calm Sunday, with pedestrians and traffic returning to what has been largely deserted city streets. Mykolaiv has one of Ukraine’s three largest ports, and stands in the way of Russian troops as they march west  along the Black Sea coast in the direction of Odessa".

[NOVA Green]

New Zealand Update per WSJ an hour back:

I had previously posted on 3/1/22 about NZ domestic sanctions debate:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=469771.msg8503167#msg8503167

"New Zealand Plans Russia Sanctions Law

WELLINGTON, New Zealand—New Zealand's government said it plans a sanctions law targeting Russia after its response to the invasion of Ukraine fell short of its Western allies.

On Monday, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said the law will be aimed at individuals and companies who are economically or strategically important to Russia and also will allow for sanctions against Belarus because of its complicity in the invasion.

It will give the government the ability to freeze Russian assets in New Zealand, prevent New Zealand from becoming a haven for the wealth of Russians sanctioned by other countries, and stop the super yachts, ships or private jets of sanctioned individuals from entering the country.

The legislation has cross-party support and will be voted on by parliament this week, Ms. Ardern said.

New Zealand, an American ally, has been limited in how far it can go in punishing Russia over its invasion of Ukraine because it doesn't have an independent sanctions law. It has in the past implemented sanctions decided upon United Nations Security Council, where Russia has a veto as a permanent member. A law specific to Russia's invasion of Ukraine papers over that gap while the government considers whether it should adopt a broader sanctions law, possibly styled after the U.S.’s Magnitsky Act.

"With Russia vetoing U.N. sanctions we must act ourselves to support Ukraine and our partners in opposition to this invasion," Ms. Ardern said.

New Zealand also published the names of dozens of Russian officials it has banned from traveling to the country, including President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

"

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-04/card/new-zealand-plans-russia-sanctions-law-B3mmNyNlYOPD9MNVwU1N

[NOVA Green]

Another "Down Under" Update from The Guardian 2 Hrs ago---

"Australian PM Calls on China to Stop Russia"

China must act on its declarations of promoting world peace and join the effort to stop Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Australia’s prime minister said on Monday, warning that the world was in danger of being reshaped by an “arc of autocracy”.

Reuters reports that Scott Morrison also suggested in a wide-ranging speech that Russia’s invasion was not going according to the plan of its leader, Vladimir Putin, who he said had “overestimated the capacity of how he might be able to prosecute this illegal war”.

“China has long claimed to have a role as one of the major powers in the world and to be a contributor to global peace and stability. No country will have a bigger impact on concluding this terrible war in Ukraine than China,” Morrison said in response to a question after a speech at the Lowy Institute think tank.

“I was listening for the voice of the Chinese government when it came to condemning the actions of Russia and there was a chilling silence,” he said.

China has declined to call the Russian attack on Ukraine an “invasion” while asking western countries to respect Russia’s “legitimate security concerns”. It has called for a solution to the crisis through negotiations.   "

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/06/