Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Most serious people in this thread base their understanding of what is going on based on credible reports by third party observers - these may often be, in turn, based on information or footage posted by belligerents, but the information is then verified and placed into known contexts. Insisting that all of this is propaganda is itself propaganda.

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1504157074372108300?s=20&t=Zf2RGNOBURt...

Also, I am not the 'Oryx' who is nicely posting military updates on twitter btw.

 This is effing excellent. I hope most literal kidnapping criminals posing as real soldiers who Committed this war crime kidnapping him all died a very gory and painful death.

These were not some poor conscripts who have nothing to do with Putin or his foreign policy, but special forces with the ugliest reputation in the world.. H*** is just a little bit Fuller with their deaths

It was a prisoner swap - the Russians got back nine men in exchange.

:

Oh well, at least the Mayor is safe. Bad precident though

you can tell which side actually values human life (ya know, "the good guys") when there are extremely lopsided prison exchanges.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It hasn't escaped my notice that a disproportionate number of the latter seem to be taking place in Mariupol. I'm sure some of that is just because it's siege warfare, but I also am starting to wonder if perhaps there are some especially bad (or sick) guys among the Russian operational commanders there.

The thing that strikes me is that Mariupol was, bar none, the single most pro-Moscow big city in Ukraine still left under Ukrainian control after 2014. Boyko topped the poll in the first round of the 2019 election and his party (one of the successor parties to the Party Of Regions) did so in the legislative elections and it was unique amongst big cities to do so. Which makes me wonder: perhaps this reflects a degree of bitterness and spite and the cold reception to the invasion, at the failure of the people of the city and surrounds to greet the Russian army as liberators?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One final post for the while: there are weird things afoot in the Belarussian woods and more reports and rumours of very senior Russian security officials falling rather dramatically out of favour.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1504157074372108300?s=20&t=Zf2RGNOBURt...
Also, I am not the 'Oryx' who is nicely posting military updates on twitter btw.

 This is effing excellent. I hope most literal kidnapping criminals posing as real soldiers who Committed this war crime kidnapping him all died a very gory and painful death.

These were not some poor conscripts who have nothing to do with Putin or his foreign policy, but special forces with the ugliest reputation in the world.. H*** is just a little bit Fuller with their deaths

It was a prisoner swap - the Russians got back nine men in exchange.

:

Oh well, at least the Mayor is safe. Bad precident though

you can tell which side actually values human life (ya know, "the good guys") when there are extremely lopsided prison exchanges.

It's probably a good deal even if you don't care about human life. If the authorities had kept on torturing the mayor, perhaps they could have eventually gotten results and trotted him out for a PR video.

In return for losing that chance, what did Russia get in return? 9 junior guys, a drop in the ocean in the grand scheme of things.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

You've all heard of Major Generals being killed well now a full General has been arrested.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1504441427929047041

In b4 he's sent to the front line.

[Torie]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/17/world/ukraine-russia-war



This 30 minute podcast was well worth listening to. The prognosis given by the interviewee, one David Sanger, is very sanguinary, and frankly quite frightening to me. Putin is a very angry man. He is obsessed with taking Ukraine, but his army has performed below his expectations, the Ukrainians more intransigent and hostile than expected, and the sanctions more damaging than expected. Contrary to his expectations he has annealed a nation, a nation against him. But he still wants Ukraine, all of it, no matter the attitude of the residents.

The good news is that while US experts were worried two weeks ago that Putin was going to the Polish border, and snapping up Moldova too perhaps, that risk has faded. It is not clear that Putin can even take Kiev. Sanger says US authorities think Russian casualties have been very high, far more than expected.

The bad news is that Putin cannot afford to give up from his perspective, and the destruction and killing on a mass scale can go on for months. If Kiev is taken, and the government flees to Lviv, the West will publically finance and support a proxy guerilla war. It cannot allow Putin to win, fix his military, and then go for more. So accepting defeat is not an option for either side; it's more death and destruction instead.

Assuming Putin is still around, this is the moment of peak danger. Does Putin give up his obsession with Ukraine, settling for Ukraine and maybe Donbas and Donetsk, but Russia precluded from invading Ukraine again because it has security guarantees, armed to the teeth, or does he then lash out?  The US has not spoken to Russia for 3 weeks. Yesterday, US national security advisor Sullivan spoke to his Russian counterpart. The topic of discussion? Sullivan informing Russia of the doomsday consequences of Russian using chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine. The US is that worried that Putin is seriously considering going there as the only way to achieve his objectives. Now it is on to China. China likes the idea of having a bad boy partner to do the dirty work to undermine the West, but on the other hand, itself becoming as much of a bad boy is very much against its interest given its international economic ties and interests. On the other hand it does not want Putin unduly humiliated. It wants an ending that is more like how the Korean war ended. (That last sentence is mine, not Sanger's, so feel free to pay it no mind.)

Sanger in the end expects the most likely outcome is a diplomatic deal as described above, but only after a lot more blood sweat and tears, with the attendant dangers of the war escalating to a far more dangerous plane. As an angry cornered animal, there is  considerable uncertainty as to what Putin would do in such a psychological condition.

That is my synopsis as to what Sanger said, but if you can get behind the paywall, by all means listen to it yourself and draw your own conclusions and opinions, and post them if you like.

Oh, one other thing Sanger said is that he thinks most Russians have no idea of the scope of the war, and how bloody it is, but they will in due course as they learn about the death of their loved ones.

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1504458537686253571?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

[Torie]

I assume these are Russian helicopters, right?

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1504507707629395970?s=20&t=r-0eBJpFY8...

Read a few other reports confirming this; if true, it not only increases the chances of a possible assault to liberate Kherson but also strengthens the defenses of Mykolaiv and reduces the chance of the city being surrounded by Russian forces.

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1504507707629395970?s=20&t=r-0eBJpFY8...

Read a few other reports confirming this; if true, it not only increases the chances of a possible assault to liberate Kherson but also strengthens the defenses of Mykolaiv and reduces the chance of the city being surrounded by Russian forces.

And pushes back when any kind of assault on Odesa could possibly happen (if it ever comes). The Russians need to take Mykolaiv to have any realistic chance of taking Odesa.

[Gass3268]

Chinese turning on Russia?

https://twitter.com/cgtnamerica/status/1504510377446543362?s=21

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1504507707629395970?s=20&t=r-0eBJpFY8...
Read a few other reports confirming this; if true, it not only increases the chances of a possible assault to liberate Kherson but also strengthens the defenses of Mykolaiv and reduces the chance of the city being surrounded by Russian forces.

And pushes back when any kind of assault on Odesa could possibly happen (if it ever comes). The Russians need to take Mykolaiv to have any realistic chance of taking Odesa.

Indeed. Unless Russia decides to invade from the coast; as was feared just a few days ago (I suppose that was a confirmed feint, now?) although it's highly debatable whether they actually have that capacity I suppose.

Does anyone know what Ukrainian defenses in Odessa are like?

[Alcibiades]

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1504507707629395970?s=20&t=r-0eBJpFY8...
Read a few other reports confirming this; if true, it not only increases the chances of a possible assault to liberate Kherson but also strengthens the defenses of Mykolaiv and reduces the chance of the city being surrounded by Russian forces.

And pushes back when any kind of assault on Odesa could possibly happen (if it ever comes). The Russians need to take Mykolaiv to have any realistic chance of taking Odesa.

Indeed. Unless Russia decides to invade from the coast; as was feared just a few days ago (I suppose that was a confirmed feint, now?) although it's highly debatable whether they actually have that capacity I suppose.

Does anyone know what Ukrainian defenses in Odessa are like?

I presume fairly decent, since they’ve had a while to prepare now. More to the point, an opposed beach landing is one of the most difficult operations any army, even a very skilled one, can attempt. I can’t imagine the Russians have much of a chance of success at one when they’ve failed so dismally at far easier tasks. There’s a reason they’ve left Odesa untouched so far.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Chinese turning on Russia?

https://twitter.com/cgtnamerica/status/1504510377446543362?s=21

compucomp in SHAMBLES

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1504507707629395970?s=20&t=r-0eBJpFY8...
Read a few other reports confirming this; if true, it not only increases the chances of a possible assault to liberate Kherson but also strengthens the defenses of Mykolaiv and reduces the chance of the city being surrounded by Russian forces.

And pushes back when any kind of assault on Odesa could possibly happen (if it ever comes). The Russians need to take Mykolaiv to have any realistic chance of taking Odesa.

Indeed. Unless Russia decides to invade from the coast; as was feared just a few days ago (I suppose that was a confirmed feint, now?) although it's highly debatable whether they actually have that capacity I suppose.

Does anyone know what Ukrainian defenses in Odessa are like?

I don’t know how well the surrounding villages are fortified but they’ve mined the beach outside the city. Inside the city, there seems to be the basis for a long-term insurgency: Odessa’s massive, maze-like catacombs could be bad news for invaders. The catacombs grew over hundreds of years due to mining, are poorly mapped, at least 2500km long and (in places) 60m deep. There are probably still remnants of Soviet stockpiles from the insurgency during Nazi occupation.

There are regular cave-ins and thermobarics could help, but it sounds like a security nightmare, tbh.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Chinese turning on Russia?

https://twitter.com/cgtnamerica/status/1504510377446543362?s=21

compucomp in SHAMBLES

Cue what about some American massacre that happened back in Vietnam/Iraq? Both sides do it.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/tumarov/status/1504373168575766533?s=21

[pppolitics]

This are fighting words!

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1504412350102839298

[Storr]

This are fighting words!

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1504412350102839298

LOL, what are they going to do to the US? They don’t have the oil/gas leverage like they have over Europe over the US. If they’re hinting at nukes. Mutually assured destruction is still a thing.

[It’s so Joever]

This are fighting words!

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1504412350102839298

And so do we.
Let’s see if these Russian officials are ready to kill their own country and families for Putin’s d**k measuring.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/tumarov/status/1504373168575766533?s=21

Uzbekistan has been shifting to the West for a while now, this is just another advance.

[Torie]

This are fighting words!

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1504412350102839298

LOL, what are they going to do to the US? They don’t have the oil/gas leverage they have over Europe over the US. If they’re hinting at nukes. Mutually assured destruction is still a thing.

I assume this crude prevariacating propaganda is for Russian consumption. Surely they know it destroys Russia's/Putin's credibility on anything elsewhere, and makes demonizing Putin even more appropriate.

[pppolitics]

Russia’s fumbling invasion, visualized





Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/17/russias-fumbling-invasion-visualized/

[President Johnson]

This are fighting words!

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1504412350102839298

Lmao, they lost more troops in Ukraine in a matter of two weeks than the US did in 18 years of Iraq. Nice try, Medvdev. If they didn't have nukes and the US Military got involved with drone strikes and a bunch of Special Forces supporting Ukrainian units, Russia would be thrown out of the country in a few short weeks, if not within days. He'd be the one put in his place.

I always found it hilarious how Russian leadership wants to be treated as an equal to the US and think the EU is a papertiger not even worth talking to, when it turns out their lousy economy is not even the size of Texas or Italy, let alone peanuts compared to the US or EU as a whole.