Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torie]

Ukraine's next move to keep the momentum going should be to completely destroy the "government" of the Donetsk People's Republic. Swarm in past the Russians, while shooting artillery and missiles at "government" buildings (NOT civilians) and after the Russians and their joke of a military's inevitable routing swoop in and arrest all the leaders and members of their Parliament they can. Sure many if not most will flee but the optics of that are also horrible. The fall of the DPR will be truly unspinnable.

That is quite a  bloodthirsty thought BRTD, but yeah, the quislings need to go, but I think they will be the first to get the hell out of Dodge, if it looks like the front line is buckling, out of a concern that Ukraine may be thinking along the same lines as you, so the bullets will be hitting desks rather than people.  

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Two CSTO members. Let’s hope this deescalation - it has happened before, but Russia wasn’t militarily preoccupied then.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1569935743383920640
Incidentally, Ukrainian intelligence claimed yesterday that Russia was trying to buy military materiel and recruit retired servicemen from Tajikistan. The latter was already true to an extent - Wagner stepped up recruiting in former USSR countries a few months ago, IIRC.

Has some think tank guy elucidated how the dots connect or do not connect between the Ukraine war and the action between Armenia and Azerbaijan? How much of it is coincidence and how much of it is connected?

You don't need a think tank guy to know it's connected. The Ukraine crisis hinders Russia's and Europe's efforts to prevent Azerbaijani offensives.

Russian peacekeepers kept the conflict frozen after 2020, but some of them pulled out after the invasion of Ukraine. Russia is less likely to deploy forces or send materiel to counter an Azerbaijani offensive because they are busy in Ukraine and perhaps because they do not want Azerbaijan to send more aid to Ukraine. The Russian military also looks weaker than it did in 2020, which means they deter Azerbaijan less. The principal alternative suppliers for the Russian materiel Armenia relies upon is Ukraine, and Ukraine cannot supply anything at the moment.

Another factor freezing the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict was Europe. The EU just signed a gas deal (and some others, I think) with Azerbaijan, to make up for what they lost from Russia. Azerbaijan influences the sale of Kazakh oil to Europe. Azerbaijan's closest ally, Turkey, is one that the rest of Europe is even more dependent on, since (among other factors) it hosts the only non-Russian land bridge to Asia and greatly influences trade as a result. Members of the European Parliament have proposed sanctions on Azerbaijan, but they will have significantly less political influence than they usually do because of this. Arming Armenia would have been difficult for a number of reasons, but it would be even harder while simultaneously arming Ukraine.

Finally, consider that (early into the Russian invasion) Turkey invoked the Montreaux convention to prevent the passage of warships into the Black Sea. This means Armenia isn't likely to get any military support via the sea.

[Torie]

Also while most of the thread involved certain personal arguments regarding collaborators and all that stuff...

Meanwhile potential chances of UKR breakthroughs in the immediate future on the Lyman front lines...


https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1569406124008300546?s=20&t=Cl3gvn...

It's all a trap actually.

[Person Man]

Ukraine's next move to keep the momentum going should be to completely destroy the "government" of the Donetsk People's Republic. Swarm in past the Russians, while shooting artillery and missiles at "government" buildings (NOT civilians) and after the Russians and their joke of a military's inevitable routing swoop in and arrest all the leaders and members of their Parliament they can. Sure many if not most will flee but the optics of that are also horrible. The fall of the DPR will be truly unspinnable.

We need all of those crooks behind bars by Christmas!

[CumbrianLefty]

Two CSTO members. Let’s hope this deescalation - it has happened before, but Russia wasn’t militarily preoccupied then.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1569935743383920640

Incidentally, Ukrainian intelligence claimed yesterday that Russia was trying to buy military materiel and recruit retired servicemen from Tajikistan. The latter was already true to an extent - Wagner stepped up recruiting in former USSR countries a few months ago, IIRC.

No the fall of the USSR wasn't "bloodless" - but its also surely beyond question that the actual death toll was *vastly* less than it could easily have been (and, indeed, was widely expected to be) which is one major reason why the recent tributes to Gorbachov were so genuine and heartfelt.

[It’s so Joever]

Y’all talking about reclaiming Donetsk and Crimea and whatnot…get a sense of perspective. Yes this offensive was strong and we should celebrate the land grabbed, but there is no way Ukraine can just take over the two separatist Republics in the same way. Heck, even taking Kherson May not be on the table right now.

[Lord Halifax]

Y’all talking about reclaiming Donetsk and Crimea and whatnot…get a sense of perspective. Yes this offensive was strong and we should celebrate the land grabbed, but there is no way Ukraine can just take over the two separatist Republics in the same way. Heck, even taking Kherson May not be on the table right now.

The two republics have the most demoralized troops, many of them press ganged, so it's definitely a possibility that they collapse under pressure, and Crimea will be vulnerable post-Kherson if the bridge is destroyed.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Scholz (and Macron) can continue to do so, though I believe it's a waste of time.

https://twitter.com/Bundeskanzler/status/1569749922852835330

A recent Süddeutsche Zeitung editorial argues in favour of the Putin-Scholz phone calls, citing it as a useful tool for ascertaining how disconnected Putin is from reality at the moment. In that sense it would be a mix of intelligence-gathering and psychoanalysis.

[rc18]

The problem with Scholz or Macron making phone calls isn't so much the act of doing it, after all Zelensky did ask for them to in the beginning. It's that the phone calls seem to have the effect of influencing those leaders to regurgitate Putin's talking points, rather than changing Putin's mind.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Russia struck a dam in Kryvy Rih on the Inhulets river. The city is without running water - although, as we saw in Kharkiv, that may not be the case for long. Perhaps more consequentially, the Inhulets' banks have burst and at least one small bridge in the city has been swept away. Downstream, this may jeopardise the Ukrainian bridgehead in the Kherson offensive, but may also separate the two Russian-held areas west of the river.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1570095967218671616

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1569993159433658368?s=20&t=65hkFthN...

"During a working trip to the Kharkiv Region, President Volodymyr Zelenskyi took part in the ceremony of raising the State Flag of Ukraine in the city of Izyum, which was liberated by the Ukrainian military from the Russian invaders.

Details: https://bit.ly/3QHazp5 "

https://twitter.com/APUkraine/status/1570008151205748739?s=20&t=7tdUIIg28Xp2...

[Splash]

I'd await further confirmation, but the Ukrainians may have liberated Kyselivka in Kherson Oblast. If true, that puts the Ukrainians about 10 kilometers north of the Kherson airport via the M14 highway.

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1570117317849403395

[Aurelius]

How much longer until the rasputitsa can be expected to set in?

[Storr]

First captured T-62. Probably headed for the National Military Museum in Kyiv. lol

https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1570055263050252288?s=20&t=s9uSP6Lgg...

[Woody]

I'd await further confirmation, but the Ukrainians may have liberated Kyselivka in Kherson Oblast. If true, that puts the Ukrainians about 10 kilometers north of the Kherson airport via the M14 highway.

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1570117317849403395

Doubtful as just yesterday even Stremousov visited the town. Also, this is 7th time it's been said to have been liberated.

But at the same time, big things can happen in under a day..

[Storr]

The Russians shared video of a Ka-52 helicopter attacking a Ukrainian barge as proof of a Ukrainian assault on Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant. The "barge" was actually a bridge support constructed during Nazi occupation in WWII.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1570045755510980612?s=20&t=GZL8ECso...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Russians shared video of a Ka-52 helicopter attacking a Ukrainian barge as proof of a Ukrainian assault on Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant. The "barge" was actually a bridge support constructed during Nazi occupation in WWII.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1570045755510980612?s=20&t=GZL8ECso...

This must be for domestic consumption, right? Making Ukraine's government more and more bad-looking...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I'd await further confirmation, but the Ukrainians may have liberated Kyselivka in Kherson Oblast. If true, that puts the Ukrainians about 10 kilometers north of the Kherson airport via the M14 highway.

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1570117317849403395
 

Doubtful as just yesterday even Stremousov visited the town. Also, this is 7th time it's been said to have been liberated.

But at the same time, big things can happen in under a day..

It doesn’t help matters that there are at least two towns with this name near the frontline in Kherson.

[Splash]

I'd await further confirmation, but the Ukrainians may have liberated Kyselivka in Kherson Oblast. If true, that puts the Ukrainians about 10 kilometers north of the Kherson airport via the M14 highway.

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1570117317849403395
 

Doubtful as just yesterday even Stremousov visited the town. Also, this is 7th time it's been said to have been liberated.

But at the same time, big things can happen in under a day..

It doesn’t help matters that there are at least two towns with this name near the frontline in Kherson.

I believe the other town is a bit north in Mykolaiv Oblast. The claim - whether accurate or not - came from a member of the official Kherson regional government, so I think it's okay to assume that he was talking about this town (maybe).

Btw, Stremousov is having a normal one today:

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1570137074581344257

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

First captured T-62. Probably headed for the National Military Museum in Kyiv. lol

https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1570055263050252288?s=20&t=s9uSP6Lgg...

If spares can be stripped from it to repair/restore some of Ukraine's broken tanks, that'll happen, but the T-62 is a different beast from the T-64/T-72/T-80/T-90/PT-91 family.

The IISS' Military Balance estimated that Ukraine had 20 T-55s in deep storage, so it might actually have armament and spares for the T-62 if and when they need more tanks.

[rc18]

The Russians shared video of a Ka-52 helicopter attacking a Ukrainian barge as proof of a Ukrainian assault on Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant. The "barge" was actually a bridge support constructed during Nazi occupation in WWII.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1570045755510980612?s=20&t=GZL8ECso...

The funniest part of the story is that it was a Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel that originally pointed this out. They even took the piss out of the MoD by saying the seagulls might have come from Ukrainian biolabs...

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/ef4fb2b8-1b28-43f3-b34f-13e98c769e63

"US shale bosses tell Europe: ‘There’s no bailout coming’"

The US shale industry has warned it cannot rescue Europe with increased oil and gas supplies this winter amid fears that a plunge in Russian exports will send crude prices soaring back above $100 a barrel.

[Person Man]

I'd await further confirmation, but the Ukrainians may have liberated Kyselivka in Kherson Oblast. If true, that puts the Ukrainians about 10 kilometers north of the Kherson airport via the M14 highway.

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1570117317849403395
 

Doubtful as just yesterday even Stremousov visited the town. Also, this is 7th time it's been said to have been liberated.

But at the same time, big things can happen in under a day..

It doesn’t help matters that there are at least two towns with this name near the frontline in Kherson.

I believe the other town is a bit north in Mykolaiv Oblast. The claim - whether accurate or not - came from a member of the official Kherson regional government, so I think it's okay to assume that he was talking about this town (maybe).

Btw, Stremousov is having a normal one today:

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1570137074581344257

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6uJhZZ9ee4k

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Zelensky is in deoccupied Izyum now. Now that's a statement.

[Dereich]

Goldman Sachs had a report out this week expecting European natural gas prices to plunge soon saying that Europe has solved its natural gas problem for this winter.

JP-Morgan analysts also think that European gas prices will be dropping soon and that a combination of changing gas usage and high reserves mean that if there are going to be any issues they won't be until next year. Specifically "Even with assuming zero supply from Russia going forward, storage likely won’t dip below 30% this winter, leaving Europe with a buffer for an extraordinary cold spell."

This is the kind of economics story you'd expect Jaichind to have posted but I guess he just missed all of this positive news for some reason.