Florida 2022 Megathread

[Terlylane]

Will Crist win Holmes county in the primary? He lost it in the 2014 primary.

It voted for Bernie in the 2016 primaries as well. I know that’s probably a terrible comparison but Fried seems to be more to the left of Crist so I wonder if she’d win Holmes.

The Democrats in Holmes County did not vote for Bernie because he was the more left-wing option, nor did they vote for Nan Rich because they love liberals.

So the same goes for Alan Grayson in 2016 as well?

I suspect Gwen Graham’s support was much more authentic though.

[One Term Floridian]

Just what we need in FL: a Democratic primary featuring Fried v Crust

Both decent candidates who will be overcome by the state’s rigid Lean R partisanship

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am donating to Whaley, DeSantis is up by 10pts

FL has no state income taxes and that's why Gwen Graham declined to run

The reason why DeSantis will win is because the tourism industry is gonna be up and running again

Grayson or Deming's probably will lose, we won't sweep Rs, we have a better chance in OH, NC, IA 53/54/55

They're all wave insurence seats but IA, OH and NC are our path to 55 seats, FL is the last seat to fall and then MO for 56/57

[President Johnson]

Lmao

[Donerail]

The Democrats in Holmes County did not vote for Bernie because he was the more left-wing option, nor did they vote for Nan Rich because they love liberals.

So the same goes for Alan Grayson in 2016 as well?

I suspect Gwen Graham’s support was much more authentic though.

Holmes, like many Panhandle counties, is home to a substantial number of Democrats who are registered Democrat solely to vote in local primaries. They turn out on election day to vote for Sheriff, and there's also a couple races on the top of the ballot that they don't really care about because they'll be voting for the Republican in November, so they take the opportunity to vote against the Democratic frontrunner. This was true for Alan Grayson (though they also gave nearly 30% of the vote to Pam Keith) and Nan Rich and Bernie Sanders (with a respectable share to O’Malley), as well as Brian Moore of the Socialist Party USA over Alex Sink in 2012, and nutritionist Glenn Burkett over Bill Nelson in 2012. It's just a protest vote.

I think it's an open question how long we'll continue to see this pattern in the Panhandle, as registered Democrats there move, die or re-register; in Holmes in particular it looks like all of their county electeds have finally flipped.

[wbrocks67]

Not sure why people here are so vehemently against Fried, when she was the only Dem who managed to get elected in 2018 and seems to be well liked in FL.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Still likely R.

Could've just left it at that as that's the truth for any combination of D/R candidates in this race

[Terlylane]

The Democrats in Holmes County did not vote for Bernie because he was the more left-wing option, nor did they vote for Nan Rich because they love liberals.

So the same goes for Alan Grayson in 2016 as well?

I suspect Gwen Graham’s support was much more authentic though.

Holmes, like many Panhandle counties, is home to a substantial number of Democrats who are registered Democrat solely to vote in local primaries. They turn out on election day to vote for Sheriff, and there's also a couple races on the top of the ballot that they don't really care about because they'll be voting for the Republican in November, so they take the opportunity to vote against the Democratic frontrunner. This was true for Alan Grayson (though they also gave nearly 30% of the vote to Pam Keith) and Nan Rich and Bernie Sanders (with a respectable share to O’Malley), as well as Brian Moore of the Socialist Party USA over Alex Sink in 2012, and nutritionist Glenn Burkett over Bill Nelson in 2012. It's just a protest vote.

I think it's an open question how long we'll continue to see this pattern in the Panhandle, as registered Democrats there move, die or re-register; in Holmes in particular it looks like all of their county electeds have finally flipped.

I get that, but unlike the others, Gwen Graham actually fit the area well. Same goes for John Edwards in the 2008 primary.

[Real Texan Politics]

Not sure why people here are so vehemently against Fried, when she was the only Dem who managed to get elected in 2018 and seems to be well liked in FL.

By 6,000 votes in a blue year. Even if she loses the primary, I'm very confident she'd lose the agricultural commissioner race this time around.

[President Johnson]

Not sure why people here are so vehemently against Fried, when she was the only Dem who managed to get elected in 2018 and seems to be well liked in FL.

By 6,000 votes in a blue year. Even if she loses the primary, I'm very confident she'd lose the agricultural commissioner race this time around.

She can run in both races?

I think both she and Crist would be fine governors, though Crist may have a better shot at winning the general. But as much as I'd like DeSantis lose and the hype evaporated, it's not likely to happen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not sure why people here are so vehemently against Fried, when she was the only Dem who managed to get elected in 2018 and seems to be well liked in FL.

By 6,000 votes in a blue year. Even if she loses the primary, I'm very confident she'd lose the agricultural commissioner race this time around.

She can run in both races?

I think both she and Crist would be fine governors, though Crist may have a better shot at winning the general. But as much as I'd like DeSantis lose and the hype evaporated, it's not likely to happen.

OH, IA, NC and FL were won in 2008/12/18, never say never, Rs are down nine on Generic ballot, it can happen in 500 days not 180 days in a big enough wave DeSantis losing. I was emailed a poll showing Alan Grayson down only 5 to Rubio

Fried or Crist can actually beat DeSANTIS, it depends on how we fair in OH, IA, NC and FL SEN races

Which are must wins now, since Sinema and Manchin just said they won't nuke the Filibuster

We have plenty of time to make our Prediction maps

[Terlylane]

I made a map:



Image Link


Comments?

I guess Oklaloosa and Clay are becoming the new Rapid D swing centers. (Not really)

[LAKISYLVANIA]

At this point, it wouldn't surprise me if Rubio got over 60% of the vote in the next election, as well as De Santis.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I made a map:



Image Link


Comments?

Escambia stands out.

[Xing]

At this point, it wouldn't surprise me if Rubio got over 60% of the vote in the next election, as well as De Santis.

That's about as likely as Masto and Sisolak getting over 60%.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Fun fact: in 1998, only 12 counties in Florida gave Jeb Bush more of the total vote in % terms than Escambia County did. In 2018, the number of counties that did the same for DeSantis was a whopping 43.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's need to focus on OH, IA and NC that's the road from 51/55 seats not FL which is 56/57 and MO and KY

OH is our 53rd seat not FL that's why I have donated to Ryan and Whaley due to Mandel

Afro Americans are the Minority in OH

Cubans and PR outnumber Blks in FL

[brucejoel99]

Not sure why people here are so vehemently against Fried, when she was the only Dem who managed to get elected in 2018 and seems to be well liked in FL.

By 6,000 votes in a blue year. Even if she loses the primary, I'm very confident she'd lose the agricultural commissioner race this time around.

She can run in both races?

Technically but it's a long-shot: only in the event that she were to lose the Democratic gubernatorial primary, the winner of the simultaneously-held Democratic AgCommish primary were to withdraw, & the FDP's executive committee were to name Fried to fill the resultant vacancy in the Democratic AgCommish nomination would she be able to have run for both offices.

[MARGINS6729]

I think she should wait to 2026. Crist is a better candidate for 2022, but neither is likely to win despite DeSantis being a poor governor.

Fried probably figured she was the underdog whether she ran for reelection or for governor, so might as well get more name recognition by running for higher office. Fried is also only 43 years old, so she could definitely run for Governor again in 2026 (or another office) if she loses the primary or general election this time (unlike Crist; this is probably his last chance to be Governor given his age and previous electoral losses).

I'm not sure who I support in this race, I like both Fried and Crist. I'd be happy with either as the nominee. I think it's unlikely to happen, but maybe Crist could choose Fried as his running mate if the primary doesn't get too nasty?

They need a Hispanic on the ticket. Fried being on the ticket wouldn't do much for Crist.

[MARGINS6729]

Undecided 'til Taddeo confirms whether or not she's running too. If she doesn't, then I'll be for Fried, but if she does, then I'll have a real decision to make over these next 14 months.

In other news, the Florida Democratic Party forgot to renew the floridadems.com domain & the GOP bought it. Yes, short of perpetually losing winnable elections, that just might be the most 'Florida Democratic Party' thing to have ever happened.

That wasn't their domain to begin with I think- it was always Floridadems.org(https://www.floridadems.org/) and when you search the Florida Democratic Party via Google it is that that comes up, not this GOP thing.

[MARGINS6729]

Democrats absolutely can win Florida but they need to actually put in the work required to win there and the national DEMs need to treat it like a priority which they never do. You need to be working everywhere with every demographic in both the media and on the ground 365 days a year. The GOP does that. The Democrats don't.

[Horus]

Can't put my finger on why but Fried seems to be a very likable candidate. She may not be favored but I wouldn't underestimate her either.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's wave insurance it's not that important of a race, DeSantis is up by 10 pts, Crist will win the primary, he was Gov already and kept taxes low and speak Spanish

[brucejoel99]

Undecided 'til Taddeo confirms whether or not she's running too. If she doesn't, then I'll be for Fried, but if she does, then I'll have a real decision to make over these next 14 months.

In other news, the Florida Democratic Party forgot to renew the floridadems.com domain & the GOP bought it. Yes, short of perpetually losing winnable elections, that just might be the most 'Florida Democratic Party' thing to have ever happened.

That wasn't their domain to begin with I think- it was always Floridadems.org(https://www.floridadems.org/) and when you search the Florida Democratic Party via Google it is that that comes up, not this GOP thing.

Yes, floridadems.org is & has always been the main domain, & it's the one which they'd actually make sure to never lose their control over. However, 'til recently, floridadems.com would just redirect to floridadems.org, 'til the FDP lost their ownership of the .com, of course, at which point it stopped redirecting because the FLGOP had already scooped it up.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Without HR 1 passing and DeSantis and Abbott Redistricting FL and TX anyway they want DeSantis and Abbott will win by landslides

This race WOULD be completive if HR 1 passed but it's not DeSantis is gonna win, too bad
55/45  by both

D's aren't gonna win 55/56/58 seats they will win 51/53 seat OH or NC wave insurence to GA when it goes to a Runoff