Florida 2022 Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

jesus crist....

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/peterschorschfl/status/1388494885154590723?s=21

CRIST: HE HAS RISEN

mods better make this the title of the thread when crist announces hhaha

This!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/charliecrist/status/1389554818503614464?s=21

He will lose by high single digits. Mark my words

Impossible. No FL Dem can get the race within double digits.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I made a map:



Image Link


Comments?

Escambia stands out.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Fun fact: in 1998, only 12 counties in Florida gave Jeb Bush more of the total vote in % terms than Escambia County did. In 2018, the number of counties that did the same for DeSantis was a whopping 43.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Fried would be better than Crist. She could beat DeSantis, Crist can't.

Crist should go back to Congress.

He's not going to win.

Neither of them can beat DeSantis.

We still have 336 days til the Election

This.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Skeptical that this means as much as some want it to mean. Isn't a good chunk of this just churn in places like Dixie County? These people weren't voting Democratic already...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1583524338472407041?s=20&t=dqLVP_ykWf...

The absolute state of the Florida Democratic Party.

FL Dems - the most effective state Democratic party in the country in giving Rs wins in close elections

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I am from Palm Beach county and I could tell DeSantis will may well be winning our county.

DeSantis looks well placed for November. Boosts from natural disasters aren't just a thing for President Obama in 2012.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How does DeSantis do by CD? His gerrymander is interesting because only 3 of the districts are true Dem packs; Biden won 9, 14, 22, 23, and 25 all by under 20%. Realistically though, I think it'd be tricky for DeSantis to flip any of these even if he's landsliding statewide. The most likely one may be Biden + 17 FL-09 because it's relatively homogenous and tends to favor incumbents, but that's a stretch.

On the flip side, the only Trump districts Christ has a remote shot at are FL-27 and FL-28 if Trump 2020's performance (which was pretty insane) really was a fluke. 27 was only Trump +0.3 so even a tiny bit of reversion would flip it to Christ, plus 27 has the best shifts of all 3 cuban districts for Dems long term due to it taking in a lot of educated areas and downtown downtown Miami. My guess is he loses it though.

So the same 20-8 breakdown.

I don't think I can disagree much with this.